With their season seemingly on the line, Michigan met the moment this past Saturday in a gritty, 27-24 win over USC on the strength of their run game and defense.

The Wolverines (3-1 overall, 1-0 Big Ten) closed as a 4.5-point underdog to the Trojans, and the upset victory gave U-M its first cover against the spread of the season. Michigan is now set to host Minnesota (2-2, 0-1) in Ann Arbor this coming weekend, and the Wolverines opened as a 12-point favorite over the Golden Gophers, per Circa Sports.

Since that opening line was released Sunday afternoon, the point spread has shifted in favor of Minnesota. As of midnight on Monday, Michigan sits at a 10-point favorite on ESPN BET and a 9.5-point favorite according to FanDuel. The Wolverines are 1-3 against the spread so far in 2024.

The Golden Gophers, 2-2-1 against the spread, enter the matchup with Michigan coming off a 17-point home loss to rival Iowa (31-14) last weekend, in which they were a three-point underdog. Minnesota covered as a sizeable favorite over Rhode Island (48-0) and Nevada (27-0) the previous two weeks, and recorded a ‘push’ with a two-point loss to North Carolina (19-17) in Week 1.

After attempting to be balanced offensively behind quarterback Davis Warren in the first three weeks of the season, Michigan switched to Alex Orji as their starter against USC and doubled-down on what they do best: run the football. The Wolverines rumbled to 290 yards on the ground against the Trojans, while Orji threw for just 32 yards passing in the game. Michigan ranks 109th (out of 134 FBS teams) nationally in total offense (327.5), 93rd in yards per play (5.53), 128th in pass yards per game (122.8) and 31st in rush yards per game (204.8).

Meanwhile, Michigan’s defense appears to be making strides after a subpar start to their season, though the Wolverines are still too-often plagued by coverage busts in the secondary. U-M ranks 55th in total defense (323 yards allowed per game), 40th in yards per play allowed (4.82), 101st in pass yards allowed (246.5 per game) and 11th in rush yards allowed (76.5 per game) through four weeks.

Michigan is set to host Minnesota at Noon ET on Sept. 28 at the Big House, with FOX carrying the broadcast from Ann Arbor.

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