Minnesota
Minnesota Twins PECOTA Projections: The Pitchers
The end of the Super Bowl means two things: pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, and projection season. Teams are finished touching up their roster (sans a notable quartet of free agents still available), allowing our not-quite-yet robot overlords to offer their opinions on each squad.
I previously reviewed PECOTA’s predictions for the 2023 team here, and the articles about the pitching and hitting projections can be found here and here, respectively, along with a short description of what any of this is. Let’s wait no more, here are Minnesota’s top 12 projected pitchers.
(Other notable projected pitchers include Kody Funderburk (0.3 WARP), Jay Jackson (0.2), and Matt Canterino (0.2).)
That Pablo López comes in as the best pitcher on the team is no surprise; PECOTA pegged him as a top-tier arm last year, and he only reinforced the system’s confidence with his best all-around year to date. PECOTA only sees 10 other pitchers accruing more WARP in 2024.
Then, Joe Ryan. Man, PECOTA loves Joe Ryan. He had an eyebrow-raisingly high projection heading into 2022, and ranked solidly last year. It’s hard not to love his ability to combine an elite strikeout rate with an abnormally low walk rate; projections eat that skillset up. I think his relatively new home run problem gives the computer hope that it’s a fluke, not a sudden slide into late-career Bert Blyleven “all systems go” territory.
Bailey Ober rounds out the trio that, according to PECOTA, gives the Twins three of the 40 best pitchers in MLB. Yet again, projections love guys who can whiff hitters while keeping the walks low—and Ober’s increased workload in 2023 increased confidence in him staying healthy moving forward.
Jhoan Durán earns the best projection among all MLB relievers. His odd command downslide in 2023 did not portend disaster: he still struck out everyone and their mother and upped his groundball rate to 65.9%. Much like low walk rates, projection systems adore pitchers able to induce grounders at an elevated clip. When matched with elite strikeout production, few other relief arms can touch Durán.
The last thing I want to touch on is the two final arms. Dan Szymborski talked about the Brock Stewart conundrum in his piece here, in which he explains the deviation surrounding Stewart has to do with sample size: how can you project a 32-year-old who missed three MLB seasons, entered the year with a negative career WAR, and then mowed down guys like prime Joe Nathan? Simple: assume regression. Now, Szymborski points out that Stewart’s underlying numbers—mainly a 20% swinging-strike rate on all pitches and a 60.6% contact rate on swings—are hard to fake, giving legitimate credence to his success. Still, it’s going to take a few years for any projection system to believe in him.
(You can essentially say the same thing about Justin Topa, who didn’t shed rookie eligibility until his age-32 (!!!) season. How do you project something that almost never happens?)
Everything passes the smell test here. Minnesota’s big three look solid, but their back-end depth is a little scary, and the sleeping dragon nestled in the back of their bullpen should drive what appears to be a deep unit.
If you would like to see any of this PECOTA stuff yourself, consider heading over to Baseball Prospectus’s website to subscribe and read some of the best baseball writing in the business. Their alumni include Brandon Warne and Aaron Gleeman, and our editor, Matthew Trueblood, writes pieces for them as well. No one told me to write this; I truly believe they are one the best resources for analytical and creative baseball thinking currently in operation.
What stands out most to you in these projections? Where would you place more faith, or less? Spark a discussion in the comments, below.
Minnesota
Minnesota public safety heads urge calm, emphasize readiness for planned protests
ST. PAUL — Public safety leaders in Minnesota on Friday, Jan. 16, called on those planning to participate in protests in Minneapolis this weekend to be peaceful, while emphasizing that resources are being prepared to enforce the law if there is any threat to public safety.
National Guard troops will be available to support local law enforcement agencies, Commissioner Bob Jacobson of the
Department of Public Safety
and Maj. Gen. Shawn Manke of the
Minnesota Army National Guard
told reporters during a briefing.
Jacobson urged those planning to participate in demonstrations to show others that Minnesota is a safe place.
“I’m counting on those who are going to be in attendance at these locations to keep the peace, to show others that Minnesota is a safe place where people can demonstrate, can share their opinions and their voices without having any violence.”
The commissioner said local law enforcement will be joined by state and other public safety agencies and will be a visible presence at the demonstrations. Law enforcement will have a “large complement” of officers at the scene, he said.
Jacobson said soldiers with the Guard will be staged in a way that they can respond quickly if needed. Troops were available in the same way last weekend as well, but were not called on, he said. The commissioner said that he is optimistic that demonstrations will be peaceful and soldiers will not be called.
Conservative influencer Jake Lang promoted a “March Against Minnesota Fraud” protest outside of Minneapolis City Hall on Saturday, Jan. 17, according to published reports. Law enforcement officers would be on location to protect the nearby Cedar Riverside neighborhood as well.
Screenshot / State of Minnesota live stream
Minnesota
‘I couldn’t save my husband’: the Minnesota families ripped apart by ICE
Paulo Sosa Garcia and Ramona Cecilia Silva were heading to work in Inver Grove Heights, Minnesota, on Monday morning when federal immigration agents pulled them over and arrested them. By the next morning, they were detained in El Paso, Texas.
Tomas Martinez Gregorio was driving his wife, Daisy Martinez, and their six-year-old son, Jayren, to a hospital in Brooklyn Park when federal agents pulled them over and took Gregorio. Jayren never made it to his tonsillectomy appointment.
About 3,000 federal agents are either operating in Minnesota or on their way to the region – seeking to arrest immigrants in what the Trump administration said was its largest enforcement operation thus far. More than 2,400 people in Minnesota have been arrested in recent weeks – and many have been swiftly moved to detention centers out of state, or removed from the country.
Some had valid visas and a right to be in the US, according to local leaders who have been responding to constituents affected by the raids and lawyers representing immigrants. The Guardian has confirmed that several refugees with legal status have been arrested in recent days after the Trump administration said it would “re-examine thousands of refugee cases”.
Many have been arrested in their neighborhoods – at home, on their way to work, at department stores and restaurants, outside schools and places of worship.
Their families are grappling with the aftermath.
“I just want for my parents to come back home,” said Cecilia Sosa, the eldest of Sosa Garcia and Silva’s three daughters.
Sosa Garcia and Silva came to the US from Mexico in 1999, and had been in a years-long process to obtain legal residency, according to their daughter. Five days before they were detained, they had been told that their case had been approved to move forward. Now their daughters are instead working to raise funds for lawyers’ fees to get them released from detention – posting a video on TikTok saying they are “living their worst nightmare”, which includes footage of their parents’ car on the side of the road with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) vehicles around it.
After nearly three decades in Minnesota, Cecilia Sosa’s parents started a cleaning business together in the last few years and had “flourished”, making connections and friends, she said. Their youngest daughter is 19, and they helped her with college expenses, and were caregivers for Cecilia Sosa’s grandfather, who just had a brain tumor removed.
Now the daughters have had minimal contact with their parents since 12 January. Sosa Garcia was able to call his daughters’ aunt to inform the family that he and his wife were detained. Silva sent a text message to one of her daughters telling her that she was detained and asked the family to call a lawyer. The couple are now being held separately at Camp East Montana at Fort Bliss, a massive tent facility in El Paso where human rights groups have alleged that detainees face physical abuse and unsafe conditions.
“I am not ready for them to leave,” Cecilia Sosa said. Her nine-year old son, whom her parents were helping her raise, asks frequently about them, she said: “We need them here.”
Daisy Martinez, whose husband, Tomas Martinez Gregorio, was detained on New Year’s Eve, said she has also struggled to explain to her son what happened to his stepfather. “He says every single day: ‘Can we get Tommy back?’ He tells his teacher: ‘Can you please save Tommy?’” she said.
The other night, her son told her he’d dreamed that his stepfather was back – and he was sad to wake up. “It just breaks my heart to hear a six-year-old say that they don’t want to wake up,” Martinez said.
Martinez and Gregorio had been married recently, in November. He is undocumented, from Mexico. Although Martinez is a US citizen, the couple had decided not to apply to adjust Gregorio’s immigration status during the Trump administration because they worried that an application would draw attention to him, and ICE would try to target him for deportation.
As more and more federal immigration agents deployed to the Twin Cities in December, Martinez had worried about Gregorio. Still, they hadn’t expected three cars with ICE agents to corner their vehicle as they were driving to the hospital.
Martinez tried to talk them down – but the agents, who were armed, demanded that Gregorio get out of the car. Video footage that Martinez recorded, reviewed by the Guardian, captured her pleading with them to let Gregorio go, and an agent telling her that her husband had a DUI on his record.
Later, an immigration agent told her that her husband did not in fact have a criminal record – and Daisy said she hasn’t been given a reason for why exactly her family was targeted.
When Martinez tried to chase after her husband, who was being ushered into an agent’s car, several other agents tackled her against the car and pinned her arms behind her, she said.
“And then they left,” she said.
Martinez then noticed her son shaking and screaming in the back seat. She briefly blacked out. When she came to, she called her cousin.
“We were two minutes away from the hospital,” she said. “We never made it to the surgery.”
Panicked, Martinez and her cousin tried to find Gregorio by tracking the location-sharing feature on his phone and realized he had been taken – like many immigrants arrested in the region – to the ICE facility at Fort Snelling, a former military fortification in south Minnesota. After that, he was transferred to a county jail in Sherburne county, a 40-minute drive from the couple’s home.
In the weeks since, she has been scrambling to figure out how to get her husband released – and how to parent and survive without him. He worked in the insulation industry and had made a good salary, allowing Martinez to work part-time and focus on childcare, she said.
Ever since agents tackled her, she said, an old injury on her foot has been acting up, making it difficult for her to walk or stand for long periods. That, combined with insomnia and the trauma of Gregorio’s arrest, has made it difficult for her to do her job as a part-time supervisor for a fast-food chain.
“I’m the child of an immigrant, I’m the wife of an immigrant,” she said. “My son was born in Mexico … so I’m basically the mom of an immigrant,” she said. “And [ICE] made me feel like my citizenship doesn’t matter any more. My social status doesn’t mean anything, my passport doesn’t mean anything.”
Still, she said, she tries to watch out for her friends and neighbors without citizenship. In the past few weeks, she has been making regular runs to the gas station to fill up their cars, making grocery runs for whoever needs it. Each time she hears or sees cars that may belong to immigration agents, she rushes outside to check who they’re after.
“I basically tell everyone here: ‘I couldn’t save my husband, but I could probably save you,’” she said.
Minnesota
What 3,000 federal agents are doing in Minnesota
This story appeared in The Logoff, a daily newsletter that helps you stay informed about the Trump administration without letting political news take over your life. Subscribe here.
Welcome to The Logoff: Tensions are rising in Minneapolis as the Trump administration continues its crackdown.
What’s happening? There are some 3,000 Department of Homeland Security agents — both ICE and Customs and Border Protection, or CBP — in Minnesota this week, largely in the Minneapolis area. Since the killing of Renee Good by an ICE agent eight days ago, a huge amount of video and reporting has documented further brutality by federal immigration agents, often indiscriminate and unprovoked, against immigrants and American citizens alike.
On Wednesday night, a federal agent shot and injured a Venezuelan man after an alleged traffic stop, giving fresh fuel to protests. And on Thursday morning, President Donald Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act and deploy troops to Minnesota, “if the corrupt politicians of Minnesota don’t obey the law and stop the professional agitators and insurrectionists from attacking the Patriots of I.C.E.”
Why does this matter? For the second time in six years, Minnesota feels like a tinderbox. Officials in the state, including Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, are urging calm and asking protesters to remain peaceful, but it increasingly feels like this is a fight the Trump administration wants to pick. On Wednesday, senior Trump aide Stephen Miller described arresting “insurrectionists” in Minneapolis as a “national security priority.”
What’s the context? ICE, which makes up the majority of the agents currently in Minneapolis, has grown substantially in the last year, at the same time as its standards have dropped precipitously. At the same time, under pressure to make more immigration arrests, they’re taking an increasingly militarized approach at odds with how ICE operated under previous administrations. All of those factors are on display right now in Minneapolis.
What’s the big picture? What’s happening to Minneapolis residents already looks less like immigration enforcement and more like an occupation. If Trump follows through with his Insurrection Act threat, things could grow far worse.
And with that, it’s time to log off…
As always, thanks for reading, have a great evening, and we’ll see you back here tomorrow!
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