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Minnesota Twins PECOTA Projections: The Pitchers

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Minnesota Twins PECOTA Projections: The Pitchers


The end of the Super Bowl means two things: pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, and projection season. Teams are finished touching up their roster (sans a notable quartet of free agents still available), allowing our not-quite-yet robot overlords to offer their opinions on each squad.

I previously reviewed PECOTA’s predictions for the 2023 team here, and the articles about the pitching and hitting projections can be found here and here, respectively, along with a short description of what any of this is. Let’s wait no more, here are Minnesota’s top 12 projected pitchers.

(Other notable projected pitchers include Kody Funderburk (0.3 WARP), Jay Jackson (0.2), and Matt Canterino (0.2).)

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That Pablo López comes in as the best pitcher on the team is no surprise; PECOTA pegged him as a top-tier arm last year, and he only reinforced the system’s confidence with his best all-around year to date. PECOTA only sees 10 other pitchers accruing more WARP in 2024.

Then, Joe Ryan. Man, PECOTA loves Joe Ryan. He had an eyebrow-raisingly high projection heading into 2022, and ranked solidly last year. It’s hard not to love his ability to combine an elite strikeout rate with an abnormally low walk rate; projections eat that skillset up. I think his relatively new home run problem gives the computer hope that it’s a fluke, not a sudden slide into late-career Bert Blyleven “all systems go” territory.

Bailey Ober rounds out the trio that, according to PECOTA, gives the Twins three of the 40 best pitchers in MLB. Yet again, projections love guys who can whiff hitters while keeping the walks low—and Ober’s increased workload in 2023 increased confidence in him staying healthy moving forward.

Jhoan Durán earns the best projection among all MLB relievers. His odd command downslide in 2023 did not portend disaster: he still struck out everyone and their mother and upped his groundball rate to 65.9%. Much like low walk rates, projection systems adore pitchers able to induce grounders at an elevated clip. When matched with elite strikeout production, few other relief arms can touch Durán.

The last thing I want to touch on is the two final arms. Dan Szymborski talked about the Brock Stewart conundrum in his piece here, in which he explains the deviation surrounding Stewart has to do with sample size: how can you project a 32-year-old who missed three MLB seasons, entered the year with a negative career WAR, and then mowed down guys like prime Joe Nathan? Simple: assume regression. Now, Szymborski points out that Stewart’s underlying numbers—mainly a 20% swinging-strike rate on all pitches and a 60.6% contact rate on swings—are hard to fake, giving legitimate credence to his success. Still, it’s going to take a few years for any projection system to believe in him. 

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(You can essentially say the same thing about Justin Topa, who didn’t shed rookie eligibility until his age-32 (!!!) season. How do you project something that almost never happens?)

Everything passes the smell test here. Minnesota’s big three look solid, but their back-end depth is a little scary, and the sleeping dragon nestled in the back of their bullpen should drive what appears to be a deep unit.

If you would like to see any of this PECOTA stuff yourself, consider heading over to Baseball Prospectus’s website to subscribe and read some of the best baseball writing in the business. Their alumni include Brandon Warne and Aaron Gleeman, and our editor, Matthew Trueblood, writes pieces for them as well. No one told me to write this; I truly believe they are one the best resources for analytical and creative baseball thinking currently in operation.

What stands out most to you in these projections? Where would you place more faith, or less? Spark a discussion in the comments, below.

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South Central Workforce Council/Minnesota Valley Action Council and Southwest Private Industry Council Receives $500,000 Grant from Department of Employment and Economic Development – Radio Mankato

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South Central Workforce Council/Minnesota Valley Action Council and Southwest Private Industry Council Receives 0,000 Grant from Department of Employment and Economic Development – Radio Mankato


The Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) has awarded more than $4.8 million to 39 organizations to provide more than 4,000 young people with workforce development and training opportunities.

DEED’s Youth at Work Opportunity Grants Program serves youth of color and youth with disabilities who are economically disadvantaged or considered to be at-risk. Grantees will connect young people ages 14-to-24 with good-paying jobs in high-growth industries, taking a targeted approach for youth who face the largest systemic barriers.

“Youth development and job training is crucial to the wellbeing of our communities and our state’s economy,” said DEED Commissioner Matt Varilek. “At DEED, we take pride in providing opportunities and assistance for some of our most vulnerable community members. Supporting the youth of today helps ensure Minnesota has a healthy and vibrant workforce tomorrow.”

“Across Minnesota, our Youth at Work partners are helping young people gain valuable skills and pursue economic stability,” said DEED Deputy Commissioner for Workforce Development Marc Majors. “We’re proud that these grants will support the next generation in building a stronger and more resilient workforce.”

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Youth at Work grantees are listed below (many organizations serve regions beyond the cities in which they are located):

Achieve Twin Cities, Minneapolis – $236,200

African Economic Development Solutions (AEDS), St. Paul – $120,000

African Immigrants Community Services, Minneapolis – $100,000

American Indian OIC, Minneapolis – $100,000

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Anoka County Job Training Center, Blaine – $300,000

Arrowhead Economic Opportunity Agency, Virginia – $100,000

Bi-County Community Action Programs, Inc., Bemidji – $100,000

Career Solutions, St. Cloud – $242,000

Central Minnesota Jobs and Training Services, Inc., Monticello – $300,000

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City Academy High School, St. Paul – $100,000

City of Duluth Workforce Development, Duluth – $300,000

City of Minneapolis, Minneapolis – $1,350,000

City of Saint Paul Parks and Recreation – Right Track, St. Paul – $1,350,000

Comunidades Latinas Unidas En Servicio, St. Paul – $100,000

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Elpis Enterprises, St. Paul – $156,000

Face to Face Health & Counseling Service, Inc., St. Paul – $100,000

Faribault Public Schools, Faribault – $190,000

Genesys Works Twin Cities, St. Paul – $200,000

Greater Bemidji/Minnesota Innovation Initiative, Bemidji – $200,000

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Hennepin County Department of Workforce Development, Minneapolis – $300,000

Hired, Minneapolis – $200,000

Independent School District No. 625 (St. Paul Public Schools), St. Paul – $150,000

JET – Northeast Minnesota Office of Job Training, Virginia – $300,000

Karen Organization of Minnesota, Roseville – $100,000

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MIGIZI Communications, Inc., Minneapolis – $142,000

Minnesota Training Partnership, St. Paul – $100,000

Port Authority of the City of Bloomington, Bloomington – $100,000

Project Legacy, Rochester – $100,000

Red Lake Band of Ojibwe, Redby– $200,000

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Rural Minnesota CEP, Inc., Detroit Lakes – $200,000

RWDA 5 – South Central Workforce Council/Minnesota Valley Action Council and Southwest Private Industry Council, Mankato – $500,000

Sabathani Community Center, Minneapolis – $200,000

Smart North, Minneapolis – $200,000

Spark-Y: Youth Action Labs, Minneapolis – $200,000

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The Lower Sioux Indian Community in the State of Minnesota, Morton – $150,000

Urban Boatbuilders, St. Paul– $100,000

Wildflyer Coffee, Minneapolis – $200,000

Workforce Development, Inc., Rochester – $200,000

Youthprise, St. Paul – $200,000

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Much colder with snow possible by Thanksgiving weekend

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Much colder with snow possible by Thanksgiving weekend


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Minnesota lawmakers react as House, Senate vote to release Epstein files

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Minnesota lawmakers react as House, Senate vote to release Epstein files


The stunning vote to release the Epstein files saw all members of Minnesota’s House and Senate delegations voting yes to release the files.

Minnesota Republicans and almost every other Republican were all lined up to vote no, but all changed their mind after President Trump said he now supports the release of the files.

Rep. Ilhan Omar, a Democrat, celebrated the vote but had criticism for those who had previously planned to vote no on releasing the files.

“While I am glad the House passed this legislation, it is unconscionable that we needed a discharge petition to get a vote because Republican Leadership refused to take up this issue,” she said in a statement.

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Meanwhile, Republican Rep. Brad Finstad praised the House Oversight Committee, which last week released more than 20,000 pages of records from Epstein’s estate, for its work.

“Jeffrey Epstein’s victims have experienced untold physical and emotional damage at the hands of powerful people. It’s these women, more than anyone, who deserve to know the truth,” Finstad said.

DFL Congresswoman Kelly Morrison met with survivors of Epstein’s abuse, who were on Capitol Hill ahead of the vote.

“Well, it’s really emotional to listen to these remarkable people retell some of their stories, talk about the decades of frustration that they have suffered through in their journey to try to get justice,” Morrison said. “It was very emotional, and I’m just struck by, honestly, their courage, their resilience and their determination.”

Rep. Tom Emmer, who is a member of the GOP leadership, released a statement saying, “House Republicans have been consistent with our calls for transparency and for accountability regarding Epstein. That is why I voted in favor of the Epstein Files Transparency Act.”

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Things are moving quickly right now on Capitol Hill. Late Tuesday afternoon, the Senate followed the House in voting to release the files.



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