Game 272 of the 2024 NFL regular season is a special one. In a year where so much of the playoff dust settled early, one Week 18 game stands out, not just for this season but in the history of the league, with the 14-2 Minnesota Vikings taking on the 14-2 Detroit Lions in the first regular-season game between two teams with 14 wins. The stakes are simple but extremely high: the winner is the NFC North champion and the No. 1 seed, with a first-round bye in the loaded NFC; while the loser is the No. 5 seed and will open the playoffs on the road during wild-card weekend. If the game should end in a tie, Detroit would win the division and be the 1-seed, thanks to winning the first matchup between the teams back in Week 7.

No matter how the game ends, this will be the first time in league history a wild-card team will have 14 wins. The only time a wild-card team had 13 wins in a season was 1999, when the 13-3 Tennessee Titans finished second in the AFC Central to the 14-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. Tennessee won the AFC championship game in Jacksonville that season before losing to the Rams in Super Bowl 34.

Aaron Glenn’s secondary is going to be undeniably tested on Sunday night against the Vikings. 

And it’s not just because Minnesota signal-caller Sam Darnold is enjoying a breakthrough campaign, with a career-best 35 touchdowns and 4,153 yards to his name. Instead, it’s also due to the Vikings’ deep receiving corps, which is highlighted by Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson.

Addison has caught 62 balls for 875 yards and nine touchdowns through 14 games this season, while Jefferson leads the way with 100 catches, 1,479 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Jefferson has cemented himself as not only Minnesota’s best pass-catcher, but also one of the most prolific receivers in today’s game.

Now in his fifth NFL season, the LSU product has amassed north of 1,000 receiving yards each year, including a league-best 1,809 yards in 2022. During the aforementioned ‘22 campaign, he also caught an NFL-high 128 passes, and recorded a league-best 106.4 receiving yards per game and earned first-team All-Pro honors.

Fast-forward to the 2024 campaign, a season in which he’s found himself catching passes from Darnold. Jefferson has established a tremendous rapport with the former journeyman quarterback, and so much so that he ranks No. 2 among all pass-catchers in receiving yards this season.

Additionally, in his first meeting with the Lions this season (Week 7), he caught seven balls for 81 yards and a score. At that juncture, Detroit’s secondary was still equipped with its top cornerback, Carlton Davis. That is no longer the case, though, as Davis suffered a fractured jaw in Week 15 against the Bills and hasn’t played a single snap since.

Report: Alex Anzalone to Play Against Vikings, Snap Count Monitored

Jefferson has a chance to feast on Sunday against a Lions cornerbacks group that is now led by rookie Terrion Arnold and veteran defensive back Amik Robertson. Arnold and Robertson have each struggled this season, with zero interceptions to their names and Pro Football Focus pass-coverage grades of 48.8 and 62.1, respectively.

I’m expecting Jefferson to be a matchup nightmare for both Arnold and Robertson on the outside, as well as for the Lions’ secondary as a whole. Detroit has been subpar at defending the pass all season long. In fact, it’s allowed the second-most passing yards to opponents (4,006), plus the most yards per game to opposing wide receivers (per PFF).

Glenn had high praise for the standout Vikings receiver earlier this week. 

“I think he’s one of the toughest guys playing in that position,” the Detroit defensive play-caller expressed. “He’s an old-school player, in my opinion. It’s almost like he’s a defensive guy playing receiver.”

In nine career games against the Lions, Jefferson has produced 69 receptions for 1,154 yards and four touchdowns. Four of those games have come at Ford Field, in which the game-changing wideout has amassed a staggering 43 catches for 730 yards and two scores.

On Sunday, I’m predicting the three-time Pro Bowl receiver to finish with eight catches for 98 yards and a touchdown.

There’s plenty of history on the line in arguably the Detroit Lions’ biggest regular-season game of the past six decades (and definitely the biggest game in Ford Field’s two-plus decades), but also the future: Beat the Minnesota Vikings and not only are the Lions NFC North champs — which would be their first time repeating as division champs since 1953-54 — but they’re the NFC’s No. 1 seed, with the lone bye week in the conference.

Getting the first weekend of the playoffs isn’t required to reach the Super Bowl — the Kansas City Chiefs made it last season after playing a wild-card game, as did the Cincinnati Bengals and LA Rams in 2021 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020, the first season of the current playoff setup. But even out of those four teams, just one — the Bucs — did it starting out on the road. (Tom Brady’s wild-card squad took out Washington, New Orleans and Green Bay in three straight road games.)

So will the Lions wrap up a week off and a late-January playoff opener at Ford Field, or will they hit the road — most likely either Atlanta or Tampa — for next week’s wild-card round? Four Free Press sports writers have some thoughts:

DAVE BIRKETT’S SCOUTING REPORT: Why he’s picking the Lions

Dave Birkett

What a game to end the season. Lions and Vikings for the NFC North title. Winner gets a first-round bye and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, loser goes on the road next week as the five seed. Campbell tried to keep the hype train in check this week by noting this isn’t playoff game. It feels like it, though, and that’s as big a reason as any why I think the Lions squeak out a win.

These are two evenly-matched teams. The Lions have the more explosive offense, the Vikings have the more dynamic defense. Last time they met, Bates kicked the game-winning field goal with 15 seconds to play, one series after Darnold misfired on a pass to an open Jefferson that might have clinched a Minnesota win. I expect this game to come down to the wire in similar fashion. The Lions don’t have much room for error because of their injuries on defense, but Goff has played lights-out football of late and homefield advantage has to count for something. The pick: Lions 27, Vikings 26.

Carlos Monarrez

The Lions were the better team when they beat the Vikings 2½ months ago. Now the Vikings are by far the healthier team, which makes them the better team. Minnesota is a balanced team featuring a superstar receiver and a defense that produces interceptions and sacks from numerous players and hasn’t allowed more than 27 points since late October. The Lions have the NFL’s best offense, but it has to be nearly perfect on every drive against good teams to make up for a banged-up defense that’s allowing an average of 30 points the past five games and needed Jake Moody’s balky leg to bail it out last week. The pick: Vikings 36, Lions 31.

Jeff Seidel

Punt? Who needs to punt? Get ready for a wild shootout in the biggest regular season game ever played in Ford Field. Get ready for a whole bunch of Gamblin’ Dan Campbell. Get ready for hold-your-breath drama. The Lions won’t be able to stop the Vikings through most of this game. Then again, the Vikings won’t be able to the Lions. It is going to be incredibly stressful and dramatic. But the Lions will get one big play, one turnover, that will change everything. The pick: Lions 35, Vikings 32.

Shawn Windsor

The defense is worrisome. The offense not so much. The stakes, meanwhile, are historic. The crowd should help and a turnover or two will be the difference. These Lions aren’t just resilient, they’re opportunistic, and they will make the play against Sam Darnold they could not against Josh Allen. The pick: Lions 27, Vikings 24.