I’ve spent the column space here each Monday since the season ended thinking about the possible futures of your Milwaukee Bucks. Those thoughts have led me to lament how bad the team’s coming free agent class is, restate my adherence to the Giannis-as-C theorem, and to find ideas on how the team can build if the recent Finals contenders are models to emulate.
Underlying all of this digital ink spillage, though, is the very real possibility that there is no change on the cards. For reasons of contractual, continuity, and chemistry reasons, the baseline expectations for the Bucks should be that they will enter the 2024-2025 season without Jae Crowder and with some other random veteran player in that slot. They could take a contingent of five or six “young guys” — Beauchamp, AJ Green, Andre Jackson Jr., Chris Livingston, Draft Pick X, Draft Pick Y — but that would be anathema to how this front office builds. Expect, then, some draft night trades that see the team buying future capital at the expense of immediate scratch off tickets.
Expect, also, the likes of Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton to be back, too. They have very tradable contracts and feel like they’ve played out their usefulness with this group. They also can’t be aggregated with other salary because of the Bucks cap situation and they may not have much value around the league besides protected picks and other also-ran vets.
Finally, expect little change in the way the team plays on both ends of the floor. Not for a want of trying on the part of the coaching staff, of course. It is simply the reality of what this group of (very (very)) established players is capable of doing. Brook Lopez doesn’t have another arc in his career that doesn’t lead to his retiring to a massive estate in Orlando. Damian Lillard isn’t going to self-actualize into a superb passer. Khris Middleton has ran at his peak for two playoffs in a row and must be more concerned with maintenance than growth.
It isn’t all that interesting or satisfactory, but it is the likeliest outcome. We’d do ourselves well to prepare for the possibility.
Let’s roundup!
Milwaukee Bucks Links
Bucks offseason primer: Milwaukee’s key roster questions as NBA Draft nears & Who could the Bucks select in the 2024 NBA Draft? Bub Carrington, Tyler Kolek and more options (The Athletic)
You may or may not have already hit your free article limit over on the Times, but if you haven’t I’d say these pieces by Nehm are worthwhile to get a solid baseline understanding of where the Bucks stand. That’s especially the case vis a vis the cap, the first and second aprons, and how difficult it may be to get under the second apron in particular.
One note on Nehm’s draft piece: Found it very interesting that he scouted almost exclusively guards and a few wings. He is rarely in the news breaking business in the way Shams/Woj are, but he isn’t just pulling names for the hell of it, either.
Chronomat Giannis Antetokounmpo (World Tempus (???))
Cracking me up that the AI writer of this never refers to the Bucks by name, but often as “Giannis Antetokounmpo’s team”. Now ain’t there something poetic and true in that.
I’ve no idea how large the crossover is between Brew Hoop readers and Swiss luxury watch purchasers, but if you’re out there, this one’s for you.
How Celtics and Mavericks built their rosters and lessons other teams can learn (CBS Sports)
Some interesting observations in here that were more likely than not inspired by my intro to last week’s MMMR where I tried to determine a few lessons for the Bucks from the Mavs-Celtics Finals. Tend to agree with Sam Quinn on all of his points, and the Bucks aren’t far off on a few, either. Being opportunistic is something GM Jon Horst will often attempt to do, but he’s fallen short occasionally in terms of “hard choices” (trading Jrue could count here, too, though) and the depth of the roster. We shall see where things lead now.
The Seven Commandments of Scoring in the NBA Playoffs (The Ringer)
Again, another interesting piece that tackles a key component to playoff winning: Scoring. As with most of these pieces, if you read them through a Bucks-tinted lens and ask whether the ideas apply to that team you may come up feeling a bit wanting. Giannis is a fearless guy and physicality is his great strength, but his durability issues have prevented us from seeing whether he has truly learned from his failures as well. Beyond him and his two co-stars, I often wonder about the other guys’ skillsets on this plane. In a world where playoff basketball is more iso-heavy as the years go by, maybe it doesn’t matter if the seventh man brings next to nothing in terms of scoring.
Mock Draft Prospect of the Week
Tyler Smith – G League Ignite – 6’9”, 225 pounds, 19 years old, SF/PF
With the MarJon Beauchamp experience underway — and still to be determined even if my hopes aren’t particularly high — will Jon Horst find himself allured by another G League Ignite prospect with his first round draft pick? Tyler Smith at 6’9” with a 7’1” wingspan could be a possible project piece if placed in the right developmental system that will keep him on his nascent upward trajectory. The highlights!
Not bad, actually! The first half of the video is mostly clips of him finishing a ton of dunks off pick and rolls or his reading and reacting to a tough shot/miss by a teammate to finish a play. Crucially, he can elevate off of one foot on the move which is something MarJon can’t quite nail. A couple of made threes shows some promise, although scouting reports say the 36.4% he made as a member of the Ignite could end up being an outlier if his amateur numbers are more reflective of what he’s capable of. On defense, the one-on-one capacity just really isn’t there, but you’d be happy seeing some of those off-ball rotations of his to close and block attempts where he starts on the weak side.
Smith played in 27 games for the Ignite with two starts in there. That team won a total of 2 games all season.
He averaged 22.0 minutes played, 13.0 points (.481/.364/.725), 5.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 1.7 stocks (0.7 steals+1.0 blocks). For a guy his age and coming mostly off the bench, his usage rate was pretty substantial (24.4%) and his offensive game mostly matched the coaching staff’s expectations when allowing that many possessions to run through him. Of course, it all comes down to how his body develops and whether he can add strength and defensive understanding to hang in the NBA. If the Bucks were to draft him I see no world in which he makes an impact in the first season outside of marginal appearances during the regular season. But if he does continue to strengthen and can keep hitting threes, he’d be a very promising guy to pair next to the likes of Antetokounmpo on both ends of the floor.
It’d take courage and a lot of faith in Doc Rivers’s staff as a developmental group. Very few Ignite guys have broken through properly at the NBA level, so Smith would have to be the first guy to buck that trend to be a success.
The Social Media Section
Give it like five more years and Kobe apocryphal-isms will have passed from stories told on podcasts to foundational national myth/lore
Think we’ve identified what caused all that Achilles pain for Dame
We’re going to party our asses off here at MMMR HQ once this dude’s contract officially expires
Please Notre Dame God, convince Pat his calling is golf. I need cap room like something bad
Yes
I’m too isolated in my continent-spanning country to get the joke. Mbappe commented with crying face emojis, so that’s good I guess
Hala Madrid, indeed
We’re a little over two weeks out from the Draft and, shortly thereafter, free agency. The team will move quickly from open questions to a cohered answer and then we can finally kick off previewing what the future may hold. Nearly there!
Happy Monday!
