In its first true test of the college football season, the Texas Longhorns head to Ann Arbor, Michigan to face the national champion Michigan Wolverines.

Both teams are extremely talented on both sides of the ball. 2025 draft projections have up to six first-rounders between the two teams alone, and one could easily project five or more All-Americans from the two schools.

The two teams will meet on the gridiron in the largest stadium in North America, Michigan Stadium or ‘The Big House’, where nearly 108 thousand fans will be screaming with expectations of a historic matchup between two of the winningest teams in CFB history. Both teams think they’re winning this game, and both fanbases will do their best to populate the stands with Maize and Blue, or Burnt Orange for the visitors.

FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the visiting Longhorns as a 7.5-point favorite, a surprising line given the atmosphere of a Michigan home game, and a testament to the strength of the Longhorns team. But games aren’t decided by betting lines. They are won in a few distinct ways, where each team’s strengths battle to overtake the others.

Given the greatness of this matchup, each team will need to be on their A-game. Here are the keys to the game for both Texas and Michigan.

Texas Wins If…

…. the running game can stay solid

The win conditions of these two powerhouses are clear: Michigan wants to control the tempo, while Texas wants to bring the pace.

The easiest way for each team to do that is by establishing the run game, and it feels like Texas’ running game versus Michigan’s run stuff will be the key matchup of the game.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian’s pro-style offense succeeds in multiple ways, but many of them come back to the establishment of the run game. Texas utilizes the run-pass option and play action as well as any team in the nation, but these plays can’t be effectively set up without the run game working.

If Michigan’s run defense can hold Texas’ backs to three or fewer yards per carry in the early going, the Wolverines will be able to sit farther back in coverage, daring the Longhorns to throw on top cornerback Will Johnson. If Texas wants to succeed, the Longhorns will need to force Michigan defensive backs closer to the line, which can only be done with the threat of the run.

This comes down to three key elements: the ability of running back Jaydon Blue, the strength of the offensive line, and the creativity of Sarkisian’s playcalling. If Blue is able to step into the lead back role that guys like Brooks and Robinson have done so well in the past, or if the Texas offensive line can push players like Mason Graham forward, or even if Sarkisian is just the right amount of creative to get players into advantageous positions, the Longhorns should be able to score enough to outlast a weaker Michigan offense.

Michigan Wins If…

…They control the clock

Though head coach Jim Harbaugh is no longer with the team, the identity of the Wolverines will likely stay the same. Control the clock with the run game, dominate the trenches, and make big plays on defense. This matchup will be the epitome of the SEC vs Big Ten identities. 

Texas, with its talented roster and high-powered offense. Michigan, with its older team built in the trenches. Both playstyles can work, Michigan proved that last year, but will that success continue against the Longhorns?

Michigan no longer has star quarterback J.J. McCarthy, one of the few quarterbacks in recent history capable of moving the ball downfield. New quarterback Davis Warren is much more of a game manager, which emphasizes the Wolverines’ need for the ground game. Returning running backsDonovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings will combine for most of the Wolverines touches, with a chance of seeing backup quarterback Alex Orji subbed in for option plays

Michigan will try to control the clock and keep the score minimal. They won’t win a shootout against Ewers and Sarkisian, but if the game comes down to three final possessions, the Wolverines will do their best to have two of them. The Wolverines were fifth among power-five teams in time of possession last year and second the year before that. Its identity revolves around winning the line of scrimmage, and with question marks on the Texas d-line it’s possible Edwards and Mullings combine to be too much for the Texas front.