Iowa
Why is the Iowa caucus so important? What to know about today’s high-stakes vote
Republicans are in a fierce competition as they’ve crisscrossed all Iowa’s 99 counties ahead of Monday’s caucuses. Despite extensive efforts by several prominent Republicans to court Iowans, it appears they’ve fallen short as the state’s caucuses approach, with former President Donald Trump maintaining a substantial lead over his rivals in the polls.
But as the first state to hold any nominating contests, Iowa acts as a litmus test for candidates vying for their party’s nomination. And despite Trump’s lead, Iowans have found themselves inundated with GOP candidates fervently pleading their cases.
When are the Iowa caucuses?
The Republican Party will hold its caucuses on Monday, Jan. 15. Iowa Democrats are holding a caucus on the same day, but are opting for voters to choose their candidate entirely by mail-in ballot this election cycle and will release the results on Super Tuesday on March 5.
Following the chaotic events of Democratic 2020 caucuses, Iowa Democrats had overhauled their caucus and presidential delegate selection process to ensure an indisputable winner.
President Biden and his team will instead prioritize South Carolina as the initial state in the lineup, succeeded by New Hampshire and Nevada a week later, with Michigan following. Originally, the plan included Georgia holding a primary just before Michigan, but Democratic efforts to advance their date faced resistance from Republicans in the state.
But New Hampshire has opted to maintain its first-in-nation primary status and will hold its primary on Jan. 23, and Mr. Biden will not be on the ballot. His team has led a write-in campaign in the state.
What is the difference between a caucus and a primary?
A caucus involves a more complex process where participants gather openly, engaging in discussions and voting to express their support for a particular candidate. Unlike primaries, caucuses require voters to physically attend specific meetings, which demands a higher level of commitment — meaning there is lower voter turnout. The process of assigning delegates in caucuses may differ, adding greater flexibility to the overall method.
Conversely, in a primary election, voters participate by casting their ballots in private to choose their preferred candidate. This process is akin to a general election, allowing voters to select their candidate in a more straightforward manner. Primary elections generally witness higher voter participation due to their accessibility, with voters able to cast their ballots throughout the day. Delegates in primaries are typically allocated proportionally, reflecting the percentage of votes each candidate receives.
Primaries offer a simpler and more accessible voting process, resulting in higher voter participation, while caucuses involve a more involved and participatory approach, requiring voters to actively engage in discussions. The decision hinges on the rules and preferences set by the state party.
Why do presidential candidates care so much about the Iowa caucus?
Historically, presidential candidates have looked to the Iowa caucus to help launch themselves to nominee status.
But the Iowa caucus hasn’t always gone on to be the best predictor of who will be the party’s nominee, even less so at predicting who will win the presidency. The state is largely White and conservative and not entirely representative of the U.S. population.
Iowa Republicans selected Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012 and Ted Cruz in 2016 — none of whom went on to clinch the nomination.
Some candidates who faced defeat in Iowa went on to secure victory, including Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988, and Trump in 2016.
Since its inception in 1972, only three presidential candidates who triumphed in the Iowa caucuses have ascended to the presidency: Democrats Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008, and Republican George W. Bush in 2000.
Still, the caucus’ outcome frequently provides an outsized advantage to winners and those who exceed expectations, often narrowing down the field by prompting underperforming candidates to exit the race.
What can the Iowa caucus results tell us about 2024?
Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst and managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, posits that Iowa serves as a more accurate snapshot of the current Republican Party. This is due to the demographic makeup, specifically the inclusion of religious and blue-collar voters.
In contrast, Kondik noted that the results of the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23 may offer less insight into the overall success of the Republican party. This is because there’s a larger share of moderate and independent voters in the state.
So even if Trump loses New Hampshire, “I don’t think it’s necessarily some sort of huge problem for him,” Kondik said.
Now, he said, if former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley were to win New Hampshire and then South Carolina a month later, “that’s where this thing maybe gets interesting,” given that both states have electorates that more closely mirror the rest of the U.S.
But if Trump were to win both Iowa and New Hampshire, it’s unlikely any of the other candidates could continue on, he said.
What are Iowans saying?
As Iowans brave the snowstorms leading up to the caucuses, many are ready to navigate the weather and cast their votes on Monday.
“I appreciate, people should appreciate when they live in Iowa, that we have so much exposure to the candidates firsthand, you really do get to be right there and ask them questions and get to see the person you know, even behind the scenes, not just in front of the camera. So I hope people pay attention and go out and caucus. It’s extremely important. You get to vote, you know, with a paper ballot right in the room, it gets counted right in front of you. And you just know the answer of who came out ahead and whatnot right there that night,” said Laurie Stiles from Johnston, Iowa.
For some who have never caucused before, they’re looking forward to hearing from other voters.
“I’ve never caucused before. But this time, I really want to hear what other people have to say, what they’re thinking,” said Ken Geoghegan, an undecided voter in Iowa.
Even though the Iowa caucus may not serve as a crystal ball for the entire presidential election year, Iowans still perceive themselves as key players in the process, contributing to the narrowing down of the candidate field.
“We’re still faith, family and friends first, right? And I think we do a very good job of leading the nation,” said Eric Vaske, a voter from Manchester, Iowa.
Taurean Smalls, Aaron Navarro and Olivia Rinaldi contributed.
Iowa
Iowa can use flat Big Ten final to get sharper for NCAAs | Leistikow
INDIANAPOLIS — An overachieving body of work over 31 games left the Iowa women with an ideal situation for 2 hours of championship-game basketball opportunity at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Go play free against second-ranked and top-seeded UCLA in the finals of the Big Ten Tournament, and see what happens.
What happened wasn’t pretty. The Hawkeyes, in a polar-opposite performance from their first two games in downtown Indianapolis, stumbled out of the gates and played poor defense and lost decisively, 96-45, before another pro-Iowa crowd.
The 51-point margin tied for the fourth-most lopsided margin of defeat in program history and largest since the pre-NCAA era of women’s basketball, in 1976. The previous biggest loss of the 26-year Lisa Bluder/Jan Jensen era was 43 points, a 103-60 loss against Kansas State in the 2002-03 season.
So yeah, this one was tough to take. It was a disappointing ending and a realization that UCLA is much, much better than Iowa right now.
“A good win for them, a lot to learn for us,” Iowa sophomore guard Taylor Stremlow said. “We’re ready for this postseason.”
The postgame vibe in the Iowa locker room was that this was still a successful tournament for Iowa, and it was. The Hawkeyes (26-6) have taken a major step forward in Year 2 under Jensen, not only reaching the Big Ten semifinals (which it fell one point shy of a year ago) but making it to the CBS-televised championship game.
Whether the final margin was one point or 51 points, the game vs. UCLA needed to serve as a learning experience to prepare for what the Hawkeyes hope is to come, three weekends from now in either the Fort Worth or Sacramento regional.
One of the “why-not” things Iowa tried against UCLA was a zone defense, which it practices often but rarely uses, to try to slow down 6-foot-7 Big Ten player of the year Lauren Betts. If Iowa is going to advance through the NCAA Tournament, it’ll undoubtedly come up against a team with more size — maybe Oklahoma in the Sweet 16, perhaps South Carolina in the Elite Eight.
In 2025-26, Iowa matches up better with opponents that feature guards, with Chit-Chat Wright and Kylie Feuerbach as elite defenders. The goal with playing zone against UCLA was to hope the Bruins were cold from deep … and that was certainly not the case.
UCLA knocked down 6-of-11 3-point attempts in the decisive first half and 13-of-26 for the game (50%).
“With it being three back-to-back games, I think it was a good way to rest a little bit defensively, but also kind of give them something new … try to throw them off a little bit,” Feuerbach said. “Once again, they were hitting everything against the zone as well. Tough day.”
UCLA led, 42-20, at the break even though Betts had four points on 2-of-5 shooting. UCLA never cooled off, shooting 63.5% for the game. It rattled off 13 points in the first 2:09 of the second half to grow the advantage to 55-23, triggering Jensen to use the third of her four timeouts.
Things never got better for the Hawkeyes, who shot 27.9% from the floor. To show how tough a day it was, they were only 12-for-38 on 2-point shots … the team’s bread and butter typically with Ava Heiden (who led Iowa with 15 points and made the all-tournament team, along with Hannah Stuelke) in the middle.
Iowa’s Ava Heiden looks forward to playing at home in NCAA Tournament
The sophomore center talked about reasons for the 96-45 loss to UCLA in the Big Ten championship game.
“Now we’ve been there, we’ve done that,” Heiden said. “We have the knowledge of how to play in these high-emotional games with the turnaround time. That’ll help us in the NCAA Tournament.”
If you think about it, this Big Ten Tournament progression provided the perfect NCAA prep. Iowa’s 64-58 win over Illinois in the quarterfinals felt like a quintessential round-of-32 matchup, considering Shauna Green’s Illini are projected as a No. 7 NCAA seed.
Then came the toss-up type of game that Iowa could see, if it gets to the Sweet 16, against seventh-ranked Michigan. The Hawkeyes’ forceful 59-42 victory demonstrated they have the capability to put away a No. 3 seed if they bring their best defense to the Sweet 16.
And then … the Elite Eight-type challenge that the Hawkeyes, if they can somehow keep this magical season going, would need to conquer. UCLA will be a definitive No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament when the brackets come out March 15. The other No. 1s will likely be UConn (which beat Iowa, 90-64), Texas (the only team that beat 31-1 UCLA) and South Carolina (which needs no re-introduction to Iowa fans).
For now, the gap looks large between Iowa and any No. 1 seed. But the Hawkeyes realistically shouldn’t have Final Four expectations with an eight-player rotation Sunday that included three freshmen and three sophomores.
“We learned how resilient we can be. It’s hard on the body and the mind, this tournament, especially for young girls,” Stremlow said. “I still consider myself to be learning a lot. … Just getting this experience is really good for our team.”
This team has earned the No. 2 seed it will receive on March 15 from the NCAA selection committee. One blowout loss to an elite team will not change that.
The Hawkeyes’ next step is to make the Sweet 16 in Jensen’s second year after getting blown out by Oklahoma in the round-of-32 in a game that looked a lot like this one. We know from even the Caitlin Clark years that getting out of Iowa City won’t be a piece of cake (first two rounds will be at Carver-Hawkeye Arena). If the Hawkeyes can do that, they’ve shown enough this week to think they’ll have a realistic chance of reaching an Elite Eight.
“Just being in the final after people didn’t think we’d be in the top five at the beginning of the season, I think just proves a lot of people wrong,” Stuelke said. “We should take pride in that and how hard we’ve been working and try to make a deep run in the NCAA.”
Iowa’s Taylor Stremlow says UCLA loss will be a learning experience
Taylor Stremlow finished with six points in the Hawkeyes’ 96-45 loss to the Bruins in the Big Ten championship game.
Hawkeyes columnist Chad Leistikow has served for 31 years with The Des Moines Register and USA TODAY Sports Network. Chad is the 2023 INA Iowa Sports Columnist of the Year and NSMA Co-Sportswriter of the Year in Iowa. Join Chad’s text-message group at HawkCentral.com/HawkeyesTexts. Follow @ChadLeistikow on X.
Iowa
3 takeaways from Iowa State basketball’s win over Arizona State
AMES — Whether they were Iowa State basketball lifers like Tamin Lipsey or late arrivals through the transfer portal, all of the Cyclones’ seniors embraced the roaring cheers at Hilton Coliseum in one final home game.
Arizona State looked to be a spoiler early, with the Cyclones trailing at the half, but Iowa State responded with a resurgent second-half effort to enjoy an 86-65 win over the Sun Devils and send their seniors off in style to close out the regular season on Saturday, March 7.
The Cyclones (25-6, 12-6 Big 12 Conference) deployed an all-senior lineup in the closing minutes of the game, before coach T.J. Otzelberger pulled Nate Heise, Joshua Jefferson and Lipsey out of the game with 1:10 remaining for a standing ovation from the crowd.
“It was a long day,” Lipsey said. “Just thinking about it right when I woke up in the morning, it hit me more than the past couple days. There’s a lot of emotions from when I stepped on the court for my pre-workout and when we all lined up out there. I was holding back tears sometimes. I saw a bunch of the students with the headbands on. That meant a lot to see that.
“A lot of tears have been in my eyes, as I’ve tried to keep them in a little bit, but I was just grateful for it.”
Lipsey had 16 points, six assists and six steals. Jefferson also chipped in 16 points, with seven boards, two steals and a block. Milan Momcilovic shot 4-of-9 from deep and also finished with 16 points. Off the bench, Jamarion Batemon had 13 points, while Dominykas Pleta had 11.
For Arizona State (16-15, 7-11), Massamba Diop had 12 points, two blocks and seven turnovers. Moe Odum and Anthony Johnson each chipped in 10 points.
Here are three takeaways from Iowa State’s win over Arizona State:
Iowa State basketball coach TJ Otzelberger on 24-0 run vs Arizona St
Iowa State basketball coach TJ Otzelberger on the Cyclones’ 24-0 run in the second half of their win over Arizona State.
Tale of two halves, with a decisive 24-0 run for Iowa State
A sloppy finish to the first half for Iowa State allowed Arizona State to go on a 10-0 run over the final 2:04 to take a 41-37 halftime lead. The Cyclones had three turnovers during the Sun Devils’ blitz and quickly saw a nine-point lead disappear.
After the break, Iowa State emerged reinvigorated. It outscored the Sun Devils, 33-7, over the first 13 and a half minutes out of the locker room. At one point during that dominant run, the Cyclones scored 24 unanswered points.
The lopsided second-half showing was an encapsulation of the Cyclones at their best. Iowa State was generating turnovers at a high clip, Arizona State went more than 10 minutes between made shots and various Cyclones were making momentum-boosting plays.
“It obviously starts with Killyan (Toure) and I guarding the ball, but it’s great to see the plays that (Dominykas) Pleta was making and Blake (Buchanan) get up to the ball screen, they can create turnovers and deflections as well,” Lipsey said of the 24-0 run. “When they’re doing that, it’s hard to move the ball against us and score against us, so when all five guys are playing together and playing on a string, rotating like we were in the second half, it’s definitely hard to play us.”
Both teams traded baskets to begin the second half, but Momcilovic and Jefferson each drilled 3-pointers to retake the lead for Iowa State and begin the streak of 24 straight points. Lipsey topped off the run with a 3-pointer of his own to make it 65-45 with 8:38 remaining.
The Cyclones shot 50.0% as a team in the second half. Defensively, they held Arizona State to just 6-of-19 (31.6%) from the floor for the rest of the game after it shot 58.3% in the first half.
Iowa State’s ball pressure was unrelenting. The Sun Devils turned the ball over 23 times, which Iowa State turned into 29 points the other way. Thirteen of those turnovers came in the second half.
“It’s been a surefire way to put ourselves in a great position, to have great on-ball defense, great ball pressure, speed our opponent up and force them to play under duress, get those turnovers and then get out and go in transition,” Otzelberger said. “We just have to do a very consistent job of maintaining that mindset for the full 40 minutes every single game, because when we do that, we’re really tough to play against. We generate those turnovers, get out and go, that’s when we’re at our best.”
Iowa State basketball coach TJ Otzelberger on Tamin Lipsey senior day
Iowa State basketball coach TJ Otzelberger shared his thoughts on Tamin Lipsey’s impact after senior day.
Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson and Iowa State seniors go out in style
The paths that led them to Ames may be different, but there’s no doubting Iowa State seniors’ gratitude for their time in cardinal and gold.
Lipsey, Jefferson, Heise, Dominick Nelson and Eric Mulder were all honored in the Cyclones’ senior day festivities before Saturday’s game.
Heise was honored again after also being honored in last season’s senior day. He decided to return for a sixth-year of college basketball due to a medical redshirt during his time at UNI.
“I actually asked Heise yesterday or earlier today, because he went through it last year as well, I asked him, ‘How does it work?’ and he had no clue,” Lipsey said. “That’s a funny story, but, yeah, just cherishing the moment was the most important thing.”
The five seniors were greeted with roaring applause from the home crowd during the pregame ceremony. Jefferson and Lipsey received extra cheers when they were introduced as starters one final time at Hilton Coliseum. The crowd was buzzing throughout the game, but they screamed one final time as Jefferson, Lipsey, and Heise checked out in the final minutes.
“Just a ton of gratitude and appreciation,” Jefferson, who also noted coming to Iowa State was the best decision of his life, said. “These people, with open arms, they let me in and I’m very appreciative for the two years I spent here and I’m excited to continue on with this year and continue playing.”
For Lipsey, there aren’t enough words from the hometown hero to describe his emotion.
“The gratitude I have for all the fans and obviously the coaches for believing in me since day one,” Lipsey said. “It’s been a long time, a quick four years, I guess you could say. For me, it’s been really quick, but I’m just thankful for the opportunity and obviously to keep going forward to winning more games.”
Iowa State basketball’s Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson on senior day
Iowa State basketball players Tamin Lipsey and Joshua Jefferson digest and react to the Cyclones’ senior day win over Arizona State.
Iowa State underclassmen step up on senior day
The spotlight might have been on the Cyclones’ seniors, but Iowa State also got good performances from a couple of its younger players.
Momcilovic shot 4-of-9 from deep and was tied with Lipsey and Jefferson with a team-high 16 points. He also had a game-high +31 plus-minus rating.
However, there’s no overlooking the contributions made by freshmen Pleta and Batemon off the bench.
Pleta was hyper-efficient and was strong on the glass and with his defensive effort. He had 11 points on 4-of-5 shooting, with five rebounds, including three offensive, and two steals in just 14 minutes of action.
“Pleta had one of his best games,” Otzelberger said. “The steal he had early in the second half, where he did the German-Euro-foot-shuffle step, whatever that was, was pretty awesome. That really got our guys going. He had so many energy plays, he played terrific.”
Batemon added 13 points and shot 3-for-5 from beyond the arc, with a couple of his long-range baskets coming at crucial points to ignite his team and the home crowd.
“He just has such gravity to how he plays, so much energy and enthusiasm,” Otzelberger said. “When he’s at his best, when he’s defending and rebounding, his offense really goes well for him.”
Eugene Rapay covers Iowa State athletics for the Des Moines Register. Contact Eugene at erapay@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @erapay5
Iowa
Iowa women’s basketball injury report for today’s Michigan game
Iowa women’s basketball has three players listed as out on the availability report for Saturday’s Big Ten Tournament semifinal vs. Michigan.
Hannah Stuelke is not listed on the league-mandated injury report, a good sign for Hawkeye fans. Stuelke has battled shoulder and elbow injuries in the last few weeks, as well as a virus on Friday.
The senior All-Big Ten player played Friday despite being under the weather, scoring 13 points and grabbing five rebounds in a quarterfinal victory over Illinois.
Kennise Johnson, Emely Rodriguez and Jada Gyamfi are not available for 2-seed Iowa. Taylor McCabe is also listed as out for the season following an ACL injury last month.
Michigan, the 3-seed, does not have any players listed on the injury report.
Here’s a look at the availability report ahead of Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. CT contest.
Iowa players listed as out
- #13 Kennise Johnston
- #21 Emely Rodriguez
- #23 Jada Gyamfi
Iowa players listed as questionable
Iowa players listed as out for the season
Michigan players listed as out
Michigan players listed as questionable
Michigan players listed as out for season
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