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Mizzou Football: Iowa Hawkeyes Preview

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Mizzou Football: Iowa Hawkeyes Preview


The last time Missouri played Iowa, future NFL 1st round quarterback Blaine Gabbert was driving Missouri late in the game until he threw game-sealing pick six to future Buffalo Bill Micah Hyde.

It’s been 14 years since the Tigers played Missouri’s Hat, and during that time Iowa has been fairly consistent if not uninspiring: some of the worst offenses you’ve ever seen paired with the most effective defenses on the planet. All they do is beat teams they should beat and play the most boring brand of football you can think of. But, hey, it works!

And now, Missouri – minus its best athlete and lineman on offense – goes up against yet another elite-tier Iowa defense and a lackluster offense that struggles to do even the most basic stuff consistently well. Should be…fun?

When Missouri Has the Ball

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Missouri’s Offense vs. Iowa’s Defense

When a defense is 6th in the nation in SP+ there’s very few things that they struggle with. And, in particular with the Hawkeyes, they are the most basic bitch defense you can think of: no big plays allowed, mediocre havoc, one of the most accurate tacklers in the country, and one of the more effective scoring defenses out there. It’s going to be zero fun watching an underwhelming Mizzou offense with several weeks off try to restart the offense against these eleven defenders.

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Run the Ball

Arkansas v Missouri

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Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Usually, Iowa has supremely stout run defenses but that isn’t the case this year. The Hawkeyes rank a shocking 106th in rushing success rate allowed, as well as 119th in opponent’s opportunity rate. We all know that Mizzou would prefer to run the ball 50 times per game and this is the group that will let them do it. The Tigers should shoot for at least a 48% rushing success rate.

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Arkansas v Missouri

Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

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Iowa’s defense in standard downs: 74th. Iowa’s defense in passing downs: 42nd. But considering that Iowa pass defense ranks 30th overall it would be best to avoid all obvious passing down situations and keep the Hawkeyes guessing. A 45% standard downs success rate should suffice.

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Missouri quarterback Brady Cook (12) runs for a touchdown in the fourth quarter of a game against Arkansas on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024, at Faurot Field. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

This will be the second straight stingy scoring defense Missouri will see, and Mizzou was able to crack open Arkansas’ stranglehold inside the 40 in their matchup this year. Iowa, on the other hand, comes into this game with a mere 3.7 points allowed per opportunity, almost right where Arkansas was. Missouri has scored at least 20 points in every victory this year and Iowa has allowed at least 20 points in every loss so let’s start there: 6 scoring opportunities at 3.5 points per opportunity for a total of 21.

When Iowa Has the Ball

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Missouri’s Defense vs. Iowa’s Offense

With two quarterbacks and one of the best running backs in the country missing this game, Iowa’s already anemic offense will be sputtering with backups at the key positions on offense. Missouri hasn’t been nearly as stout defensively as the year has gone on but should see a renaissance against a bad unit with backups.

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Keyword: should.

Stop the Run

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Missouri linebacker Triston Newson (14) tackles Arkansas tight end Luke Hasz (9) on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024 at Faurot Field in Columbia. (MICHAEL BANIEWICZ/ROCK M NATION)

Iowa isn’t very good at running the ball but they are 5th in the nation in run rates on standard downs with a 73% chance of running the ball in that situation. They also rank 52 in running the ball in passing downs (35%). Stop the run -> make them pass -> profit. I’d like to see Iowa’s rushing success at 40% or less.

Turnovers!

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Missouri defensive linemen Johnny Walker Jr. (15) and Chris McClellan (7) celebrate recovering an Arkansas fumble after the end of a game against Arkansas on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024, at Faurot Field. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

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Given the amount of fumbles and types of passes batted around, Iowa should have turned the ball over 10.7 times and, in reality, they’ve had 11 turnovers, so they’re right on track. But Iowa’s defense should have had 19.6 turnovers while in reality they’ve grabbed 24. So the Hawkeye’s have benefited from a little bit of luck and an opportunistic defense…and Mizzou’s defense is going to need to flip the script. Mizzou’s defense has been good at taking advantage when the opportunity presents itself and they need to ride that to a +2 in the turnover department.

Conclusion

Iowa is a more extreme version of Missouri which means this game could go very quick and be very boring. Mizzou’s penchant for waiting until the 4th quarter to score points would be a very bad idea against this type of opponent, but Iowa’s offense could be so ineffective that it might not matter. Hopefully we’re pleasantly surprised by an entertaining game because this has all the makings of a snoozer of a low-scoring result.



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Trump launches midterm push in Iowa, warns losses would derail agenda: ‘We gotta win’

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Trump launches midterm push in Iowa, warns losses would derail agenda: ‘We gotta win’


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President Donald Trump kicked off an aggressive midterm push Tuesday night in Iowa, warning supporters that losing control of Congress would jeopardize his tax cuts, border policies and broader second-term agenda as he urged Republicans to turn out and “win the midterms.”

“If we lose the midterms, you’ll lose so many of the things that we’re talking about, so many of the assets that we’re talking about, so many of the tax cuts that we’re talking about, and it would lead to very bad things,” Trump said during remarks that framed the 2026 midterm elections as a test of his presidency.

Speaking after Reps. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, and Zach Nunn, R-Iowa, Trump said holding both chambers of Congress was critical to advancing his agenda.

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“We got to win the midterms. That means Senate. And it means House. We gotta win,” he told the crowd.

Trump explicitly cast the Iowa stop as the opening act of his midterm campaign, arguing that presidents who fail to campaign aggressively often lose ground in off-year elections.

President Donald Trump speaks Tuesday during an event in Clive, Iowa. (Scott Morgan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

“I’m here because we’re starting the campaign to win the midterms. We have got to win the midterms,” he said. “The midterms are very important. We’re going to really work hard on winning the midterms.”

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The president warned that a Democrat-led Congress would reverse his economic and border policies, telling supporters that control of Capitol Hill would determine whether his priorities survive. 

“If they won, this country would be cratering right now,” Trump said as he contrasted Republican and Democrat candidates. “We have candidates that roll with common sense. Not this craziness.”

Trump repeatedly tied the midterm stakes to his economic record in his speech, touting what he described as a dramatic turnaround in inflation, investment and job growth since returning to office. 

“Today, just after one year of President Trump, our economy is booming. Incomes are rising. Investment is soaring. Inflation has been defeated,” he said. “Our border is closed, totally closed.”

REPUBLICAN SENATORS HIT BORDER, TOUTING TOUGHER SECURITY AND TAX CUTS, IN 2026 KICKOFF

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President Donald Trump takes the stage to speak during a rally at the Horizon Events Center Tuesday in Clive, Iowa. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Trump credited tariffs and trade policy for increased domestic investment, saying his administration had secured what he called “commitments for a record-breaking $18 trillion.” 

He also praised companies like John Deere for expanding U.S. manufacturing and touted tax provisions he said would benefit seniors, tipped workers and employees who work overtime, pointing to “no tax on tips,” “no tax on overtime” and “no tax on Social Security for our seniors.”

At several points, Trump returned to immigration as a defining midterm issue, arguing that border security and deportation policies would be undone if Republicans lost control of Congress. 

“The worst is open borders,” he said. “We can never forget what that group of morons did to this country. We can never forget. And we’ve got to win the midterms.”

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DAVID MARCUS: WHY REPUBLICANS DESPERATELY NEED A TRUMP-CENTERED MIDTERM CONVENTION

President Donald Trump arrives for a rally in Iowa. (Scott Morgan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Trump acknowledged the historical challenges facing the party in power during midterm elections but said aggressive campaigning could overcome them. 

“Even if you’re a good president … whoever wins the presidency has a hard time with the midterm,” Trump said. “But I campaigned hard. We got it. We got to win the midterms.”

Trump closed the political portion of his remarks with a direct call to action, urging supporters to mobilize to protect his agenda and elect Republican candidates up and down the ballot. 

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“So, remember that you got to get out, and you got to vote,” he said.

The Iowa stop is part of a broader push by the White House to put the president on the road regularly ahead of the 2026 midterms. Administration officials have said Trump plans to make weekly appearances in states with key congressional races as Republicans work to defend narrow House and Senate majorities, with a particular focus on motivating core GOP voters who don’t always turn out in off-year elections or when the president’s name isn’t on the ballot.

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The president made clear that he views the elections not as a referendum on Congress but as a vote on the future of his presidency. 

“We got to win them,” he said of GOP candidates. “We have great candidates. Again, Senate and House. We got to win them.”

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The White House referred Fox News Digital to President Trump’s remarks.

Fox News Digital’s Paul Steinhauser and Emma Colton contributed to this reporting.



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Trump’s personal Minneapolis response is to travel to Iowa to talk about affordability | Fortune

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Trump’s personal Minneapolis response is to travel to Iowa to talk about affordability | Fortune


President Donald Trump is headed to Iowa on Tuesday as part of the White House’s midterm year pivot toward affordability, even as his administration remains mired in the fallout in Minneapolis over a second fatal shooting by federal immigration officers this month.

While in Iowa, the Republican president will make a stop at a local business and then deliver a speech on affordability, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. The remarks will be at the Horizon Events Center in Clive, a suburb of Des Moines.

The trip will also highlight energy policy, White House chief of staff Susie Wiles said last week. It’s part of the White House’s strategy to have Trump travel out of Washington once a week ahead of the midterm elections to focus on affordability issues facing everyday Americans — an effort that keeps getting diverted by crisis.

The latest comes as the Trump administration is grappling with the weekend shooting death of Alex Pretti, an ICU nurse killed by federal agents in the neighboring state of Minnesota. Pretti had participated in protests following the Jan. 7 killing of Renee Good by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer. Even as some top administration officials moved quickly to malign Pretti, the White House said Monday that Trump was waiting until an investigation into the shooting was complete.

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Trump was last in Iowa ahead of the July 4 holiday to kick off the United States’ upcoming 250th anniversary, which morphed largely into a celebration of his major spending and tax cut package hours after Congress had approved it.

Republicans are hoping that Trump’s visit to the state on Tuesday draws focus back to that tax bill, which will be a key part of their pitch as they ask voters to keep them in power in November.

“I invited President Trump back to Iowa to highlight the real progress we’ve made: delivering tax relief for working families, securing the border, and growing our economy,” Rep. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa, said in a statement in advance of his trip. “Now we’ve got to keep that momentum going and pass my affordable housing bill, deliver for Iowa’s energy producers, and bring down costs for working families.”

Trump’s affordability tour has taken him to Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina as the White House tries to marshal the president’s political power to appeal to voters in key swing states.

But Trump’s penchant for going off-script has sometimes taken the focus off cost-of-living issues and his administration’s plans for how to combat it. In Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania, Trump insisted that inflation was no longer a problem and that Democrats were using the term affordability as a “hoax” to hurt him. At that event, Trump also griped that immigrants arriving to the U.S. from “filthy” countries got more attention than his pledges to fight inflation.

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Although it was a swing state just a little more than a decade ago, Iowa in recent years has been reliably Republican in national and statewide elections. Trump won Iowa by 13 percentage points in 2024 against Democrat Kamala Harris.

Still, two of Iowa’s four congressional districts have been among the most competitive in the country and are expected to be again in this year’s midterm elections. Trump already has endorsed Republican Reps. Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Democrats, who landed three of Iowa’s four House seats in the 2018 midterm elections during Trump’s first term, see a prime opportunity to unseat Iowa incumbents.

This election will be the first since 1968 with open seats for both governor and U.S. senator at the top of the ticket after Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds and Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst opted out of reelection bids. The political shake-ups have rippled throughout the state, with Republican Reps. Randy Feenstra and Ashley Hinson seeking new offices for governor and for U.S. senator, respectively.

Democrats hope Rob Sand, the lone Democrat in statewide office who is running for governor, will make the entire state more competitive with his appeal to moderate and conservative voters and his $13 million in cash on hand.

___

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Kim reported from Washington.



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Iowa Democratic state lawmakers launch Black and Brown Caucus

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Iowa Democratic state lawmakers launch Black and Brown Caucus








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Iowa Democratic lawmakers launch Black and Brown Caucus to advance equity-focused policies | The Gazette






























































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