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Iowa State vs. Utah score prediction by expert football model

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Iowa State vs. Utah score prediction by expert football model


A notable late-season Big 12 matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 22 Iowa State goes on the road against Utah. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Iowa State sits in a two-way tie for third-place in the Big 12 standings after a two-game losing skid that came to an end last weekend, but the Cyclones need help getting to the league title game.

Utah was the preseason favorite to win the Big 12 Championship Game, but slid to just 1-6 in conference play and is on a six-game losing streak, not having won since late September, against Oklahoma State, the other worst team in the league this season.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Cyclones and Utes square off in this Big 12 matchup?

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For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Iowa State and Utah compare in this Week 13 college football game.

As expected, the models are siding with the Cyclones against the Utes, but by a close margin.

SP+ predicts that Iowa State will defeat Utah by a projected score of 24 to 20 and to win the game by an expected margin of 4.1 points in the process.

The model gives the Cyclones a solid 60 percent chance of outright victory against the Utes.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 315-293-8 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-30 (43.4%) last weekend.

Iowa State is a 7.5 point favorite against Utah, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 41.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Iowa State at -280 and for Utah at +225 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

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If you do, you’ll be in the company of a minority of bettors, most of whom expect the Cyclones to dominate the Utes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Iowa State is getting 62 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread in the process.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Utah will either win outright in an upset or keep the game under 8 points in a loss.

Most other analytical football models also favor the Cyclones against the Utes this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

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Iowa State is the favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the majority 63.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Utah as the presumptive winner in the other 36.8 percent of sims for the game.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the matchup?

Iowa State is projected to be 4.8 points better than Utah on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Iowa State is fourth among Big 12 teams with a 9.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

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That model forecasts the Cyclones will win 9.3 games this season.

Colorado (34.3%) leads the Big 12 in the playoff race, according to the index projections, followed by BYU (31.1%) and Arizona State (13.5%).

Utah has two games left to become bowl eligible, but the index doesn’t foresee that happening.

FPI projects the Utes will win 4.7 games and have an 11.9 percent chance to make a bowl game.

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Salt Lake City, Utah

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Time: 6:30 p.m. CT | 5:30 p.m. MT
TV: Fox network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Democrats will debate in Iowa US Senate primary shaped by outside money and big-name endorsements

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Democrats will debate in Iowa US Senate primary shaped by outside money and big-name endorsements


DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Two Democrats vying to be Iowa’s next U.S. senator are scheduled to debate Thursday, as each seeks to convince voters he’s better positioned to flip the Republican-held seat in a contest that has seen heavy outside spending and high-profile endorsements.

State lawmakers Zach Wahls and Josh Turek are competing in a June 2 primary. It is one of a few remaining competitive Democratic Senate primaries this year, as the party looks to find the best approach to reclaim the U.S. Senate this fall.

Iowa’s Republican Sen. Joni Ernst opted out of a reelection bid, leaving the seat open for the first time since she replaced retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin in 2014. Republican Senate leaders have backed Ashley Hinson, a congresswoman representing northeast Iowa, committing $29 million for her to help keep their thin majority.

Democrats see an opportunity to flip seats in the once-competitive state, despite President Donald Trump’s double-digit win in the last presidential election and an all-Republican federal delegation. But first they need to settle which federal candidate will be at the top of the ticket. Early voting began Wednesday.

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An influx of cash has shaped the final stretch

While Wahls and Turek have raised and spent similar amounts, a Democratic political organization, VoteVets, has spent about $7 million to support Turek in the final stretch of the campaign. That’s more than the two candidates have spent combined.

Turek, who is not a veteran, was born with spina bifida after his father’s exposure to chemicals while serving in the Vietnam War. The group has said Turek is uniquely positioned to advocate for veterans’ services, especially health care and military families.

Wahls has criticized the influx of cash as insiders in Washington trying to exert outsized influence, and it’s likely to come up again Thursday, as it did at an Iowa Press debate last week.

Tensions over the future of the party

Wahls has been vocal about who should — or should not — lead Senate Democrats, saying he would not vote for Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York to be the caucus leader.

“The leadership of Chuck Schumer has failed the Democratic Party, it has failed the state and it has failed this country,” Wahls said during last week’s debate. “Dark money has an agenda, and that agenda is to protect the broken status quo and the failed leadership of Sen. Schumer.”

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Schumer has tried to keep the focus on Republicans.

Wahls is endorsed by U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who joined him in Iowa for campaign events over the weekend. The progressive senator told voters the Senate needs Democrats who are willing to “get in there and stand up and fight.” Wahls also often highlights the support he’s seen from unions and local elected officials.

Turek responded to Wahls’ criticism saying he’s not a “DC insider.”

“I don’t know these folks,” he said. Turek explained his criteria for leader candidates but stopped short of saying he wouldn’t support Schumer.

“I will go up and ask whoever is deciding to run for leadership … ‘What are you going to do for Iowa? What are you going to do for Iowans? What are you going to do for the middle class?’” Turek said.

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In the last week, Turek unveiled a rare endorsement from Harkin, who represented Iowa in Washington for three decades, as well as former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Turek also has collected endorsements from sitting U.S. senators, including Illinois’ Tammy Duckworth, New Hampshire’s Maggie Hassan and Nevada’s Catherine Cortez Masto.

Drawing greater contrast on issues

In the first debate last week, Turek and Wahls were aligned on many issues. Both said that they would not support the Republican president’s tariffs or the war in Iran and that they do support raising the minimum wage and restoring health care access with a public insurance option. They criticized corruption in Washington and proposed higher taxes on corporations and wealthy Americans.

But they also started to draw some contrasts. More of that is likely Thursday.

Wahls referenced a law Turek supported in the Iowa legislature that makes it a state crime to be in the U.S. illegally. Turek defended his vote, saying it was Biden-era legislation and stressed the importance of a secure U.S.-Mexico border. Turek said he also supports an easier path to citizenship and reforms to immigration enforcement under the Trump administration.

Turek highlighted his working-class background and contrasted his work for a nonprofit with Wahls’ work for a super PAC focused on electing young Democrats.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.



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Iowa State wrestling adds ex-Hawkeye Dru Ayala from transfer portal

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Iowa State wrestling adds ex-Hawkeye Dru Ayala from transfer portal


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Iowa State wrestling has added another lightweight through the transfer portal, earning the commitment of former Hawkeye Dru Ayala on Wednesday, May 13.

Ayala has been with the Hawkeyes for two seasons, with an 11-4 record as a true freshman and not competing in 2025-26. The 125-pounder will have at least three years of eligibility remaining.

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“Grateful for where I’ve been, excited for where I’m going. Go Cyclones,” Ayala said in an Instagram post.

Before his time in Iowa, Ayala was a four-time state medalist with Fort Dodge. He made the state semifinals all four years and had a 153-16 record. He is the brother of former Hawkeye wrestler Drake Ayala, who recently accepted a position as an assistant coach with the Cyclones.

Iowa State has had multiple major departures with Anthony Echemendia, Christian Castillo, Daniel Herrera and others heading to the transfer portal. As a result, the Cyclones have been busy adding to the roster, with Dru Ayala joining Ayden Smith (Rutgers), Brayden Thompson (Oklahoma State) and Rin Sakamoto (Oklahoma State).

Eli McKown covers high school sports and wrestling for the Des Moines Register. Contact him at Emckown@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @EMcKown23.

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Candidates for Warren County’s Iowa House District 22 tackle issues

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Candidates for Warren County’s Iowa House District 22 tackle issues


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Two candidates are running for the Iowa House District 22 seat encompassing Norwalk, Carlisle, Cumming and Martensdale.

First-term Republican Rep. Samantha Fett faces a challenge from Democrat Rory Taylor, who she defeated in 2024 to fill the open seat.

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Both candidates are unopposed for their party’s nomination.

To help voters, the Des Moines Register sent questions to all federal, statewide and Des Moines area legislative candidates running for political office this year. Their answers have been lightly edited for length and clarity.

The primary election is scheduled for June 2.

Click below to see learn more about the candidates and where they stand on key issues:

| Bios | Top issue | Education | Taxes | Cancer rates | Eminent domain | Budget deficits |

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  • Political party: Republican.
  • Age: 46.
  • Residence: Carlisle.
  • Occupation: Marketing and communications director for Inspired Life Inc.
  • Education: Bachelor’s degree in journalism, Drake University.
  • Political experience: Moms for Liberty – Warren County, Carlisle School Board member 2019-2021, Warren County Central Committee member, Capitol Region Republican Women, Iowa Federation of Republican Women, National Federation of Republican Women.

Who is Rory Taylor?

  • Political party: Democrat.
  • Age: 65.
  • Residence: Norwalk.
  • Occupation: Retired.
  • Education: Bachelor’s degree in history, minor in political science, Iowa State University.
  • Political experience: Bevington City Council.

Fett (R): My top issue is strengthening Iowa’s education system. I believe parents should have a leading voice in their children’s education because families want meaningful options. I support high academic standards, safe learning environments and policies that protect children while ensuring every student has the opportunity to succeed. I will work on policies that continue to focus on all students reaching their potential through measurable, objective achievements and by expanding and enhancing the supply of creative education. Education shapes the next generation, and it remains my highest priority.

Taylor (D): Water quality in our state. We need to increase monitoring the water sources we use for our drinking water. Our nitrate levels are in direct correlation to our cancer rates in the state. We need to work with our farmers to mitigate the problem, not blame them for it!

Taylor (D): We need to restructure the voucher program. Students with financial needs could be accommodated, but not the wealthiest of our population. We need to provide more funding for our AEAs and improvement in teacher pay. Bring back our industrial arts programs.

Fett (R): I support policies that put students and families first. That includes strengthening parental rights, expanding educational options and making sure all education models — public schools, homeschool, private and public charter schools — can succeed. I also support a balanced approach to digital learning, since excessive screen time can affect attention and academic progress. I believe Iowa should set developmentally appropriate limits on digital instruction and prioritize strong foundational skills like reading, writing and real classroom connection so every student has the opportunity to thrive.

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Fett (R): I support Iowa’s recent tax changes because the state was collecting far more than it needed. With full reserves, a $2 billion ending balance, and over $4 billion in the Taxpayer Relief Fund, returning money to Iowans is the responsible choice. The 3.8% rate keeps Iowa competitive, and temporary revenue dips were planned for. Looking ahead, I would support additional tax law changes that continue this philosophy: keeping government efficient, ensuring strong reserves and returning excess dollars to taxpayers.

Taylor (D): I do not support all the tax changes. I believe moving Iowa’s tax structure for both corporate and income to be more progressive. This would raise taxes on corporations, higher-income individuals and lower taxes on lower-income individuals.

Taylor (D): Water quality standards: Strengthen, enforce and monitor water quality standards to reduce carcinogens like nitrates and PFAS from agricultural runoff.

Fett (R): I support practical, targeted actions that reduce known risks and strengthen research. Iowa is a major radon hotspot, and radon exposure is a leading cause of lung cancer. House File 2297 is an important step requiring passive radon mitigation. A cost-effective protection helps ensure families aren’t unknowingly exposed to dangerous levels. I support the pediatric cancer research bill, which provides dedicated funding to advance research and improve outcomes for Iowa children. This investment and reducing environmental risks give Iowa a stronger and more effective path to lowering cancer rates. Chemical regulation: Improve monitoring of pesticides and fertilizer application, ensuring public health is central to agricultural policy. Radon mitigation: Fund widespread radon testing. Protect Medicaid expansion, which supports cancer screening and care for over 180,000 Iowans. HPV vaccine access: Protect access to human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccinations to prevent future cancer.

Fett (R): Protecting private property rights is essential. Based on that standard, I do not support using eminent domain for carbon capture pipelines, as these projects do not meet the threshold of traditional public use infrastructure and raise significant concerns for landowners. I have consistently opposed the misuse of eminent domain and will continue standing with Iowa landowners on this issue.

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Taylor (D): Public projects, such as infrastructure (highways, bridges) and utilities. And as long as there is fair compensation and due process.

Taylor (D): Voucher program would be a start. And the tax cuts that have been made haven’t stimulated the economy as the Republican Party has suggested they would. I don’t see any other cuts I would suggest. The key is tax revenue, and what we have in place now isn’t working!

Fett (R): Iowa’s recent revenue dip was fully expected when income taxes were reduced. I support a disciplined, responsible approach to budgeting that ensures we fund key priorities like public schools, nursing homes and public safety while still allowing Iowans to keep more of what they earn. The Taxpayer Relief Fund was created specifically to manage temporary revenue decreases during tax reform, providing stability without jeopardizing essential services. My focus is on maintaining disciplined budgeting so Iowa continues meeting its obligations without over taxing families.

Read more about the midterm candidates at: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/news/elections/.

Marissa Payne covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. Reach her by email at mjpayne@registermedia.com. Follow her on X at @marissajpayne.

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