The Colts, at 6-7 after Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season, are two games and a head-to-head tiebreaker behind the Texans (8-5) in the AFC South division race. They now have a fighting chance, however, of making the AFC playoffs as the third wild-card team.

Indianapolis almost joined the Dolphins (5-7) and Bengals (4-8) in losing and fading from the playoff picture in Week 13, but it stayed alive and well with Anthony Richardson’s red-zone passing and running, completing a fourth-quarter comeback to win a thrilling 25-24 battle in the final seconds.

Here’s breaking down Indianapolis’ chances of getting in with five weeks left.

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Colts’ current playoff picture

The Colts are the No. 8 team in the AFC, a half-game ahead of the Dolphins and 1.5 games up on the Bengals.

With the Ravens (8-4) and Chargers (8-4) going strong and positioned in the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds, respectively, it comes down to the No. 7 seed, held by the Broncos (7-5). Indianapolis will hope Cleveland upsets Denver on Monday night to reduce the lead to a game. If the Broncos win to go up two games, the Colts would still have a chance with four games left for both teams.

MORE: Why Colts trusted Anthony Richardson on game-deciding 2-point conversion

Colts’ remaining schedule

The Colts and Broncos both have a bye in Week 14 to reset for the final month stretch run. Here’s looking at Indianapolis’ final four games:

• Week 15: at Broncos, Dec. 15
• Week 16: vs. Titans, Dec. 22
• Week 17: at Giants, Dec. 29
• Week 18: vs. Jaguars, Jan. 5

The Colts get their direct shot vs. the Broncos in Week 15, meaning they can control the wild-card race should the Broncos lose to the Browns to fall to 7-6 on Monday night. Should both teams be 7-7 after that game, the Colts would own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Winning at Denver won’t be easy, but should Indianapolis get through that hurdle, it has a very favorable schedule against three bad teams. Should the Colts win out, they have a strong chance because that would include beating the Broncos.

The Broncos, along with the Colts, still need to face the two teams ahead of them in the AFC West, the Chargers and Chiefs. They have the bigger trap game, too, playing at the Bengals in Week 17.

Colts’ playoff chances

Indianapolis needs a little help, but if it finishes 3-1 (which includes a win over Denver) or 4-0, it has a real shot, from 60 to 100 percent. But if the Colts go 2-2 or worse — regardless of whether they beat the Broncos in Week 15 — they would have an almost zero-percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Indianapolis Colts (5-7) and New England Patriots (3-9) are far removed from the days of being the NFL’s heavyweights, but this game still means everything to the current edition of the visiting Colts as they fight for their playoff lives on Sunday at Gillette Stadium.

While two games below .500, the Colts are still somehow in the postseason hunt as they sit two games behind the Denver Broncos (7-5) for the AFC’s final playoff spot, who they play in two weeks. At this point, the Colts have five winnable games in front of them, starting in New England, and they cannot afford to drop any at this point.

Here’s how the Horseshoe Huddle staff sees things unfolding for the Colts in their Week 13 road matchup against the Patriots, with our roundtable of five analysts feeling more comfortable with the road favorites (-2.5).

Sean Ackerman (@shnackerman): If the Colts and Jonathan Taylor can finally wake up the run game, they should be able to leave Foxborough with a win. Also, the return of Bernhard Raimann at left tackle should alleviate some of the constant pressure Anthony Richardson has dealt with in the pocket. As long as AD Mitchell steps up in Josh Downs’ absence, the Colts could find their way to a sixth win in 2024.
Pick: Colts 24, Patriots, 20

Jake Arthur (@JakeArthurNFL): We can’t always say this, but the Colts have the better players and are the better team in this matchup. If they’re going to have some self-inflicted errors like they did last week against the Detroit Lions, they can actually afford it in this matchup. Both teams are dealing with a litany of injuries, but I like the Colts to establish the run with Richardson and Taylor in this one, which will breed play-action opportunities for Alec Pierce and Mitchell. Defensively, the Colts’ front takes advantage of one of the league’s worst offensive lines.
Pick: Colts 27, Patriots 13

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Noah Gebert (@NoahGebert): In what should seem, on paper, to be an easy win, the Colts will have to overcome some adversity to come up with a win over the Patriots. After a loss last week to the Lions in which Richardson received very little help from his offensive supporting cast, he may get even less help this week, with Downs ruled out and Pierce questionable. Ultimately, against a struggling Patriots defense, I think the Colts can do just enough damage to outpace the Patriots’ offense. Shane Steichen is too good of a head coach to allow this team to bottom out, and with a loss on Sunday, the Colts could do just that.
Pick: Colts 20, Patriots 19

Andrew Moore (@AndrewMooreNFL): The Colts have not won in Foxborough since 2006. That streak ends on Sunday. With the run game being a heavy emphasis all week, expect Richardson and Taylor to get going on the ground. The Patriots’ offense poses little threat, and the duo of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart should eat in the middle.
Pick: Colts 24, Patriots 17

Drake Wally (@DWallsterDrake): This is a must-win game for Indianapolis if playoff hopes are expected to live. While there are some players like Christian Gonzalez and Keion White, Indianapolis should have the advantage offensively. This spells out a possible massive game from Taylor, who’s mustered just 92 rushing yards on 35 carries over the last two games. The Colts will control the clock and win the possession battle along with the game to move to 6-7.
Pick: Colts 23, Patriots 17

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INDIANAPOLIS — Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has been known to deliver a blow when he’s on the move.

The NFL believes he took it too far last week.

Richardson was fined $22,511 for use of the helmet last week, an unnecessary roughness penalty designed to keep ballcarriers from leading with their heads.

The Colts quarterback was fined for using his helmet to run through Lions safety Brian Branch on a 17-yard run near the end of the third quarter of Sunday’s loss to Detroit.

The rule has been around for a long time, but penalizing offensive players for the infraction has been an emphasis for only the past couple of seasons.

Colts vs Patriots: 10 things to watch as Colts try to break Gillette curse vs. Patriots

Richardson is the second quarterback to draw the fine this season; the other was Cowboys backup Trey Lance, who was fined two weeks ago for a play against the Eagles.

The play likely does not sit well with a Colts team that believes Richardson has been unfairly penalized for his size and physical running style this season. Indianapolis submitted at least two of the hits Richardson took in the season opener to the NFL for review, only to be rebuffed on review; none of the Texans were fined for their hits on Richardson in that game.