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What does a La Niña winter mean for Indiana? See NOAA’s 3-month forecast as season starts

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What does a La Niña winter mean for Indiana? See NOAA’s 3-month forecast as season starts


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An umbrella and a moderately warm jacket are what Hoosiers might want to keep on hand over the next three months. Meteorologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting Indiana’s winter to be wetter than average.

The most recent seasonal outlook map by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows several Midwest states now have equal chances for both above and below average temperatures January throughout March of 2025. The agency updated its predictions last week, saying La Niña conditions have a 59% chance of emerging this winter.

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Here’s what that means for Hoosiers living in Indiana.

What is La Niña?

La Niña is a natural climate pattern in which the ocean’s seawater cools in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, according to the National Weather Service. It occurs normally every 3-5 years and can have a significant impact on the weather, such as worsening the Atlantic hurricane season.

How does La Niña impact winter?

Changes in the ocean’s temperature can affect tropical rainfall patterns, which in turn can impact weather all over the world. These effects, writes NWS, are more acute during the winter months when the jet stream is strongest over the United States, which causes colder and stormier than average conditions across the North and warmer, less stormier conditions in the south.

What does La Niña mean for the Midwest?

Historically for the Midwest, La Niña conditions usually create fall weather that’s warmer and drier than normal while winters tend to be wetter than average, according to NWS. This year Indianapolis experienced its third warmest fall on record, according to records kept by NWS, with the highest recorded temperature in 2024 set on Sept. 21 at 94 degrees. Winter for Central Indiana, as a result, could follow historical trends of getting more precipitation than average January through March 2025.

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When is the first day of winter?

The first day of winter is Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, also known as the winter solstice for the northern hemisphere.

What’s the NOAA forecast for Indiana this winter?

Indiana is forecast to have a wet winter this year, according to NOAA. Areas in Central Indiana stretching as far north as Fort Wayne have a 50–60% higher chance of above-normal precipitation. The odds of Evansville and places along Indiana’s southern edge near Louisville are leaning toward a 40–50% greater chance of more precipitation than average this winter.

Records kept by NWS show the average total rainfall from January through March in Indianapolis equaled 9.24 inches.

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How cold will Indiana get this winter? Here’s what NOAA says…

Indiana has an equal chance of seeing above or below normal temperatures during the first three months of 2025, according to a seasonal outlook map updated by NOAA on Nov. 21. An earlier prediction showed Indiana leaning toward above-normal temperatures.

The average daily high in Indianapolis, according to NWS, is 36 in January; 41 in February; and 52 in March. Lows during those three months average in the low 20s to low 30s

Warmer than normal temperatures are possible over large swaths of the U.S., according to NWS, in part because of the lowered seawater temperatures of La Niña. The map is valid from January to March 2025.

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What do the Farmers’ almanacs predict for winter in the Midwest?

A winter prediction by the Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts the Hoosier state would have snowy, cold conditions in the southern half of the state with cold, drier weather in northern Indiana.

Meanwhile, the Farmer’s Almanac predicts the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest region (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin) can expect a “big freeze” in January with “very, very cold conditions.”

Hoosiers might want to keep in mind the almanacs’ long-range predictions are sometimes little better than a coin flip. One study cited by Popular Mechanics reported the Farmer’s Almanac was right about 52% of the time.

Story continues after photo gallery.

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When will winter end?

Winter lasts from Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, in the northern hemisphere until Thursday, March 20, 2025, when the vernal equinox will mark the beginning of spring.

What are the dates for the four seasons in 2025?

  • Spring: March 20, 2025 (vernal equinox)
  • Summer: June 20, 2025 (summer solstice).
  • Fall: Sept. 22, 2025 (autumnal equinox).
  • Winter: Dec. 21, 2025 (winter solstice).

John Tufts covers trending news for IndyStar and Midwest Connect. Send him a news tip at JTufts@Gannett.com. Find him on BlueSky at JohnWritesStuff.



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Indiana congresswoman says she will spurn GOP caucus to help Elon Musk’s DOGE group

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Indiana congresswoman says she will spurn GOP caucus to help Elon Musk’s DOGE group


Rep. Victoria Spartz, R-Ind., announced Monday she won’t take any committee positions or caucus with Republicans in the upcoming congressional term but instead would prefer to spend her time working with the quasi-governmental panel Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are planning to lead, the so-called Department of Government Efficiency.

“I will stay as a registered Republican but will not sit on committees or participate in the caucus until I see that Republican leadership in Congress is governing,” Spartz wrote on X, after Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., told Ramaswamy to “Count me in !”

“I do not need to be involved in circuses,” Spartz added. “I would rather spend more of my time helping @DOGE and @RepThomasMassie to save our Republic, as was mandated by the American people.”

Her post followed another in which she claimed Republicans must make the $2 trillion in deep spending cuts demanded by Musk, cuts that he has admitted are likely to impose “hardship” on Americans. She also released a statement that talked about “helping President Trump, his appointees and DOGE to deliver on their promises through reconciliation.”

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One wonders how Spartz’s decision could affect the GOP’s already-slim House majority in the coming term and whether her refusal to cooperate might create any additional headaches for House Speaker Mike Johnson. (Politico, citing two anonymous sources “with direct knowledge of the matter,” reported that Spartz’s decision may have been a consequence of her not securing the committee position she was after.)

At any rate, this does seem mostly like a boon for the appearance of legitimacy for Musk and Ramaswamy’s group. There’s also no reason to assume the Department of Government Efficiency will be any less circuslike than the GOP-led Congress. Even if the Republican caucus is a circus, that’s the circus that Spartz’s voters elected her to serve in.

But her decision aligns with my theory that Trump and his allies in Washington are devising ways to minimize Congress’ authority and diminish its reputation so executives Trump puts in charge can make all the important decisions.

One can see signs of this in Musk and Ramaswamy’s insistence that Trump can use impoundment to withhold funds authorized by Congress for expenditure. And in the conservatives’ push for Trump to use recess appointments to circumvent the Senate’s duty to confirm his Cabinet picks. I think Spartz’s announcement is yet another way MAGA allies are working to shift power from Congress to Trump and his inner circle in the executive branch.



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Hoosiers’ Cignetti named AP Coach of the Year

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Hoosiers’ Cignetti named AP Coach of the Year


INDIANAPOLIS — When Curt Cignetti took the Indiana job last fall, he promised immediate success.

After daring doubters to Google his winning pedigree, the son of a Hall of Fame football coach delivered on his word by leading the Hoosiers to a school-record 11 wins, a top-10 ranking and an improbable first playoff berth that set up a Friday night game at No. 3 Notre Dame.

Cignetti was named the Associated Press Coach of the Year on Tuesday, collecting 30 of 45 votes from AP Top 25 voters. Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham finished second with eight votes, Oregon coach Dan Lanning received five and SMU coach Rhett Lashlee got two.

“Thank you to The Associated Press for this tremendous team honor,” Cignetti said. “Our program has had a great season and we look forward to opening the College Football Playoff against Notre Dame on Friday.”

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Few thought such a season was possible at Indiana, much less in his first season. Cignetti, 60, authored an eight-win turnaround that captivated the nation at a school with the most losses in Football Bowl Subdivision history.

Then again, all Cignetti does is win.

He has never had a losing record in 14 seasons as a head coach and has a reputation for making quick turnarounds everywhere he goes: Alabama, where he served as Nick Saban’s first recruiting coordinator and won a national title, following his father to Indiana University of Pennsylvania or at FCS school Elon and James Madison, where he presided over the most successful transition from the FCS to the FBS in NCAA history.

Cignetti won conference coach of the year awards at IUP, Elon, James Madison and now in the Big Ten with Indiana. Cignetti brought most of his coaching staff and 13 players from the Dukes to Indiana and the results were as surprising as they were at any of his previous stops.

Even Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman took note.

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“I didn’t know much about him, so I took a minute and Googled him and looked at some of the things he’s done in the past at his other places,” Freeman said Sunday, a week after the playoff pairings were announced. “He’s won everywhere he’s been. He’s done a great job.”

The winner of seventh-seeded Notre Dame (11-1) and 10th-seeded Indiana advances to the quarterfinal round against second-seeded Georgia (11-2).

Cignetti is the first Indiana coach to win the award since its inception in 1998. His predecessor, Tom Allen, finished second in 2020 after leading the Hoosiers to a 6-2 mark, a second straight January bowl game and a final ranking of No. 12.

But this has been a historic season for the Hoosiers (11-1) and Cignetti, who became the first Indiana coach to start 10-0 — or even post double-digit wins in season.

Indiana produced its largest margin of victory in school history, 77-3 over Western Illinois, in September and two of its three largest victory margins in Big Ten play, 56-7 over Nebraska in October and 66-0 over rival Purdue in its regular-season finale.

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Ten of the 11 wins were by margins of 14 or more points and the Hoosiers only trailed in the second half of one game, a loss at then-No. 2 Ohio State. And Indiana isn’t just the highest scoring team in the playoff at 43.3 points per game; it also has the No. 6 scoring defense (14.67 points) and the No. 1 run defense (70.8 yards per game) in the FBS.

It’s not a surprise to anyone in the program, least of all Cignetti.

“This team’s accomplished a lot, I’m proud of what they’ve accomplished,” Cignetti said. “I think the coaches have done a great job, players have done a great job. But in saying that, no one’s satisfied. The players are hungry for more, the coaches are hungry for more.”



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Doyel: ‘The thrill of hope’ is what Indiana Wish gives to Hoosier families, like Archer’s

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Doyel: ‘The thrill of hope’ is what Indiana Wish gives to Hoosier families, like Archer’s


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Archer Ruzic giggles like a baby lamb, bleating gently, beautifully, as his dad loves on him in the kitchen of the family’s westside home. Archer is 4 years old and nonverbal, generally silent when he’s not crying in pain or, as he’s doing now, giggling softly. This is one of those moments for Jesse and Olivia Ruzic, that giggle, when everything feels OK – the hospital trips and seizures, the heart surgeries, the medications lined up on the counter like they live inside Walgreens.

That was another moment when everything felt OK – a trip to Walgreens.

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This was in Michigan, four years ago, after one of Archer’s surgeries, the insertion of a feeding tube into his stomach. Archer was 6 months old and couldn’t eat by mouth – still can’t, really – and was being fed through a nasal tube. His waving little hands had discovered the nasal tube one day, and “pulling it out was becoming his favorite hobby.”

That’s from Olivia, the kind of delightful thing she or Jesse will say about their son, about their situation. Their strength is supernatural, coming from their faith. They met in 2012 at a seminary in Chicago, when Olivia tripped and … well, we’ll tell that story in a moment. By March 2020 they were married and living in Michigan, where Jesse was a pastor and Olivia worked alongside him, when the trip to Walgreens happened.

Archer was in the hospital after something had gone wrong following the insertion of that feeding tube. He suffered a stroke, and doctors told his parents – well, you can imagine what they told his parents.

“They thought he might die,” Olivia says.

Olivia and Jesse prayed, and Olivia posted an update on Facebook asking – begging – for more prayers.

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“People all over the globe prayed for him,” she says.

This was a viral social media post that crossed oceans and came back to Michigan, to a Walgreens, where Olivia was getting medication for Archer when a woman approached her:

“Are you Archer’s mom?” she asked Olivia. “I’m praying for him.”

These are the moments that sustain a mom and dad when their son, their sweet little Archer, has been diagnosed with so many illnesses and conditions – more than 20, many of them unrelated – that eight of his 11 organ systems are affected. The family needs more moments, though. It’s why they called Indiana Wish last year. They were seeking help. They wanted to hear more of that glorious giggle.

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Olivia Ruzic, 32, tries to explain what it’s like to raise a child like Archer. She goes old school, to the 1985 video game Tetris. Remember that one? Trying to put the blocks together, just so?

“Rare-disease parenting feels like a game of Tetris, and it’s impossible to win,” she says. “You’re constantly trying to fit together blocks that just won’t: How does this medicine that helps one organ system affect another organ? We’re so consumed with medical issues, are we neglecting developmental issues? We have two other kids – are we neglecting them? You always ask: ‘Am I doing enough?’

“Working with Indiana Wish was such a beautiful experience. They posed a beautiful question: What wish would bring your child the most joy?”

Olivia pauses.

“Indiana Wish put the most blocks together for him.”

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Indiana Wish serves all year

This is an annual story you’re reading, the second such installment of our holiday Indiana Wish series. It started last year with a story about a wish granted in 2019 to Muncie’s Lauren McGlaughlin: a family trip to France, her idea, for memories that would sustain Lauren’s parents and siblings after her eventual death from cancer the next year.

Some wishes are big, like that. Some are smaller. The average cost is $12,000, and Indiana Wish is a non-profit. Each wish is granted with help from community donations.

Why write this story? Why write it every year – and during the holiday season, when we’d rather laugh than cry?

Can’t tell you, exactly. It just feels right. As we come together in December, celebrating whatever we celebrate, let’s love on people whose lives don’t look like ours – and support groups like Indiana Wish, whose sole purpose is comforting families living through their unimaginable struggle.

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Pause for a moment. Let’s compose ourselves. You need to learn more about Olivia and Jesse, and about Archer and his two brothers. And you need to see the wish they received.

Indiana Wish, 2023: Lauren McGlaughlin is alive in family’s memories from Muncie to Paris

Granting Archer’s wish

Archer loves the park. Well, he’d love the park if it weren’t so overwhelming. He loves the slide. Loves to swing next to his older brother, Jack, 7.

But parks tend to have other children, and the stroke Archer suffered at 6 months caused a brain bleed in his thalamus region, where sensory processing takes place. He gets overwhelmed to the point of withdrawal, lying down on a mat to get away from all that stimulus. His frustration leads to emotional agony, to say nothing of the increased risk of infection that comes with being around other small children. When Archer gets sick, he suffers more seizures. The cycle is terrifying, heartbreaking.

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Archer loves the park, but parks don’t love him back. So the family wished for a park in their backyard. Nothing big: A swing set for Archer, Jack and baby brother Dash, 8 months old. A small trampoline. Like that.

Indiana Wish built an interactive playhouse with swings, a slide and cabin. Archer plays there with Jack, swinging or sliding or just hanging out inside the cabin. It’s like their own fort, just the two of them, after Jesse or Olivia help lift Archer into the cabin. He can walk short distances, but needs help climbing.

Indiana Wish also built a netted trampoline. Jesse and Archer get on it and jump together, literally together: Jesse, 34, wraps his arms around his son and they bounce up and down. They are safe, they are together, and listen carefully. Hear it?

Archer’s giggling.

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Why Indy? Riley Hospital for Children

She’s from Franklin, Indiana. He’s from Washington D.C. It was at Chicago’s Moody Bible Institute where Olivia and Jesse “met,” if you can call it that. More like she was walking to class, down some stairs, and tripped. She didn’t land at the 6-2 Jesse’s feet so much as she landed on them.

“Sorry,” Olivia told the tall stranger from D.C. before hurrying away in embarrassment, “I’m just getting used to this walking thing.”

Now Jesse is yelling after her to slow down, to come back:

“I’m falling for you!” he called out.

Great line, you have to admit.

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They were married, and soon had Jack. Then came Archer, and right away – like, when he wouldn’t cry after delivery – doctors knew something was wrong. Three open-heart surgeries in six months. A diagnosis of Kabuki Syndrome, a punishing genetic condition that affects the body and brain. More diagnoses: Kidney damage. Brain damage. Diaphragm in the wrong place. A muscle mutation. Epilepsy. Autism. More.

“I don’t want to go into the whole list,” says Olivia, whose family moved to Indianapolis last year to be closer to Riley Hospital for Children, “but he’s not the most acute. I know someone putting their son in hospice now. You’d be shocked at the intense level of suffering – but also the intense level of joy these children have, including my son.”

Archer loves eggs and sausage. He reads electronic books, and darned if the kid doesn’t prefer to listen in Spanish. His parents used to go into the controls when he was sleeping, and return it to English, but Archer keeps switching it back to Spanish.

Indiana Wish and ‘the thrill of hope’

At first, Archer babbled like babies do.

“He used to say ‘Mama,’” Olivia says. “We have video of him saying it once.”

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Then, the stroke. He doesn’t talk anymore, but he has beautiful brown eyes and the most expressive face; he gets his point across. But there are days where it’s all too much – another seizure, more aches and frustration – and Archer will stay in his bed, irritable or worse, in pain.

Indiana Wish knew about those moments, and purchased for Archer a reclining rocking chair. The cushion is the softest material ever – like a bed of Hawaiian rolls, the family calls it – and the rocking motion can calm him down. This happened a few weeks ago:

“Archer was having one of those days,” Olivia says. “Pneumonia and a heart-wrenching seizure day, and because of that he was so exhausted he couldn’t lift his head.

“I put up a Christmas tree. He really loves lights. I could hear him screaming in his medical bed, nothing was helping him, and I had Christmas music on in the background, songs about a God who loved humanity so much He comes down and suffered for us. My whole life I’ve always believed that, but I was struggling that day. It’s so hard when you have child that has a progressive disease that causes so much pain, and you can’t fix it. I was struggling to believe God is with us.

“I took Archer out of the bed and lay him across the rocker. He was lying on those Hawaiian rolls, and at first he was visually struggling to process the tree. I started rocking him, and he sighed and stopped screaming. A faint, beautiful smile crossed his lips. Seeing him be comforted in his pain reminded me: I’m not alone, and God is with us.

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“I felt the thrill of hope,” she continues. “‘A weary mom rejoices’ – it’s so true. Indiana Wish really brings hope to families. I could not be more thankful.”

They are paying it forward as best they can, Archer’s parents. Ask around, and you learn Olivia works part-time at a local grocery store, where she quietly uses her employee discount to help other weary moms with their purchases. Ask around, and you learn Jesse left the church not because he lost his passion to serve, but found a passion to serve in another way: He’s attending nursing school, and has one year left. He wants to work in the neonatal intensive care unit. The NICU is a lonely place for parents – and can be harder on the dad, often, than the mom – and Jesse wants to help.

They are one of 3,500 Indiana Wish families granted a wish since 1984. You can help by visiting www.indianawish.org.

Find IndyStar columnist Gregg Doyel on Threads, or on BlueSky and Twitter at @GreggDoyelStar, or at www.facebook.com/greggdoyelstar.

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More: Join the text conversation with sports columnist Gregg Doyel for insights, reader questions and Doyel’s peeks behind the curtain.





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