An umbrella and a moderately warm jacket are what Hoosiers might want to keep on hand over the next three months. Meteorologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting Indiana’s winter to be wetter than average.

The most recent seasonal outlook map by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows several Midwest states now have equal chances for both above and below average temperatures January throughout March of 2025. The agency updated its predictions last week, saying La Niña conditions have a 59% chance of emerging this winter.

Here’s what that means for Hoosiers living in Indiana.

What is La Niña?

La Niña is a natural climate pattern in which the ocean’s seawater cools in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, according to the National Weather Service. It occurs normally every 3-5 years and can have a significant impact on the weather, such as worsening the Atlantic hurricane season.

How does La Niña impact winter?

Changes in the ocean’s temperature can affect tropical rainfall patterns, which in turn can impact weather all over the world. These effects, writes NWS, are more acute during the winter months when the jet stream is strongest over the United States, which causes colder and stormier than average conditions across the North and warmer, less stormier conditions in the south.

What does La Niña mean for the Midwest?

Historically for the Midwest, La Niña conditions usually create fall weather that’s warmer and drier than normal while winters tend to be wetter than average, according to NWS. This year Indianapolis experienced its third warmest fall on record, according to records kept by NWS, with the highest recorded temperature in 2024 set on Sept. 21 at 94 degrees. Winter for Central Indiana, as a result, could follow historical trends of getting more precipitation than average January through March 2025.

When is the first day of winter?

The first day of winter is Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, also known as the winter solstice for the northern hemisphere.

What’s the NOAA forecast for Indiana this winter?

Indiana is forecast to have a wet winter this year, according to NOAA. Areas in Central Indiana stretching as far north as Fort Wayne have a 50–60% higher chance of above-normal precipitation. The odds of Evansville and places along Indiana’s southern edge near Louisville are leaning toward a 40–50% greater chance of more precipitation than average this winter.

Records kept by NWS show the average total rainfall from January through March in Indianapolis equaled 9.24 inches.

How cold will Indiana get this winter? Here’s what NOAA says…

Indiana has an equal chance of seeing above or below normal temperatures during the first three months of 2025, according to a seasonal outlook map updated by NOAA on Nov. 21. An earlier prediction showed Indiana leaning toward above-normal temperatures.

The average daily high in Indianapolis, according to NWS, is 36 in January; 41 in February; and 52 in March. Lows during those three months average in the low 20s to low 30s

Warmer than normal temperatures are possible over large swaths of the U.S., according to NWS, in part because of the lowered seawater temperatures of La Niña. The map is valid from January to March 2025.

Winter in Indiana: Winter solstice is the shortest day of the year. Here’s how much daylight Indiana gets.

What do the Farmers’ almanacs predict for winter in the Midwest?

A winter prediction by the Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts the Hoosier state would have snowy, cold conditions in the southern half of the state with cold, drier weather in northern Indiana.

Meanwhile, the Farmer’s Almanac predicts the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest region (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin) can expect a “big freeze” in January with “very, very cold conditions.”

Hoosiers might want to keep in mind the almanacs’ long-range predictions are sometimes little better than a coin flip. One study cited by Popular Mechanics reported the Farmer’s Almanac was right about 52% of the time.

Story continues after photo gallery.

When will winter end?

Winter lasts from Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, in the northern hemisphere until Thursday, March 20, 2025, when the vernal equinox will mark the beginning of spring.

What are the dates for the four seasons in 2025?

• Spring: March 20, 2025 (vernal equinox)
• Summer: June 20, 2025 (summer solstice).
• Fall: Sept. 22, 2025 (autumnal equinox).
• Winter: Dec. 21, 2025 (winter solstice).

More forecasts: Old Farmer’s Almanac says to keep your flip-flops out for fall. Unless you live in Indiana

John Tufts covers trending news for IndyStar and Midwest Connect. Send him a news tip at JTufts@Gannett.com. Find him on BlueSky at JohnWritesStuff.

Rep. Victoria Spartz, R-Ind., announced Monday she won’t take any committee positions or caucus with Republicans in the upcoming congressional term but instead would prefer to spend her time working with the quasi-governmental panel Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are planning to lead, the so-called Department of Government Efficiency.

“I will stay as a registered Republican but will not sit on committees or participate in the caucus until I see that Republican leadership in Congress is governing,” Spartz wrote on X, after Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., told Ramaswamy to “Count me in !”

“I do not need to be involved in circuses,” Spartz added. “I would rather spend more of my time helping @DOGE and @RepThomasMassie to save our Republic, as was mandated by the American people.”

Her post followed another in which she claimed Republicans must make the $2 trillion in deep spending cuts demanded by Musk, cuts that he has admitted are likely to impose “hardship” on Americans. She also released a statement that talked about “helping President Trump, his appointees and DOGE to deliver on their promises through reconciliation.”

One wonders how Spartz’s decision could affect the GOP’s already-slim House majority in the coming term and whether her refusal to cooperate might create any additional headaches for House Speaker Mike Johnson. (Politico, citing two anonymous sources “with direct knowledge of the matter,” reported that Spartz’s decision may have been a consequence of her not securing the committee position she was after.)

At any rate, this does seem mostly like a boon for the appearance of legitimacy for Musk and Ramaswamy’s group. There’s also no reason to assume the Department of Government Efficiency will be any less circuslike than the GOP-led Congress. Even if the Republican caucus is a circus, that’s the circus that Spartz’s voters elected her to serve in.

But her decision aligns with my theory that Trump and his allies in Washington are devising ways to minimize Congress’ authority and diminish its reputation so executives Trump puts in charge can make all the important decisions.

One can see signs of this in Musk and Ramaswamy’s insistence that Trump can use impoundment to withhold funds authorized by Congress for expenditure. And in the conservatives’ push for Trump to use recess appointments to circumvent the Senate’s duty to confirm his Cabinet picks. I think Spartz’s announcement is yet another way MAGA allies are working to shift power from Congress to Trump and his inner circle in the executive branch.

INDIANAPOLIS — When Curt Cignetti took the Indiana job last fall, he promised immediate success.

After daring doubters to Google his winning pedigree, the son of a Hall of Fame football coach delivered on his word by leading the Hoosiers to a school-record 11 wins, a top-10 ranking and an improbable first playoff berth that set up a Friday night game at No. 3 Notre Dame.

Cignetti was named the Associated Press Coach of the Year on Tuesday, collecting 30 of 45 votes from AP Top 25 voters. Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham finished second with eight votes, Oregon coach Dan Lanning received five and SMU coach Rhett Lashlee got two.

“Thank you to The Associated Press for this tremendous team honor,” Cignetti said. “Our program has had a great season and we look forward to opening the College Football Playoff against Notre Dame on Friday.”

Few thought such a season was possible at Indiana, much less in his first season. Cignetti, 60, authored an eight-win turnaround that captivated the nation at a school with the most losses in Football Bowl Subdivision history.

Then again, all Cignetti does is win.

He has never had a losing record in 14 seasons as a head coach and has a reputation for making quick turnarounds everywhere he goes: Alabama, where he served as Nick Saban’s first recruiting coordinator and won a national title, following his father to Indiana University of Pennsylvania or at FCS school Elon and James Madison, where he presided over the most successful transition from the FCS to the FBS in NCAA history.

Cignetti won conference coach of the year awards at IUP, Elon, James Madison and now in the Big Ten with Indiana. Cignetti brought most of his coaching staff and 13 players from the Dukes to Indiana and the results were as surprising as they were at any of his previous stops.

Even Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman took note.

“I didn’t know much about him, so I took a minute and Googled him and looked at some of the things he’s done in the past at his other places,” Freeman said Sunday, a week after the playoff pairings were announced. “He’s won everywhere he’s been. He’s done a great job.”

The winner of seventh-seeded Notre Dame (11-1) and 10th-seeded Indiana advances to the quarterfinal round against second-seeded Georgia (11-2).

Cignetti is the first Indiana coach to win the award since its inception in 1998. His predecessor, Tom Allen, finished second in 2020 after leading the Hoosiers to a 6-2 mark, a second straight January bowl game and a final ranking of No. 12.

But this has been a historic season for the Hoosiers (11-1) and Cignetti, who became the first Indiana coach to start 10-0 — or even post double-digit wins in season.

Indiana produced its largest margin of victory in school history, 77-3 over Western Illinois, in September and two of its three largest victory margins in Big Ten play, 56-7 over Nebraska in October and 66-0 over rival Purdue in its regular-season finale.

Ten of the 11 wins were by margins of 14 or more points and the Hoosiers only trailed in the second half of one game, a loss at then-No. 2 Ohio State. And Indiana isn’t just the highest scoring team in the playoff at 43.3 points per game; it also has the No. 6 scoring defense (14.67 points) and the No. 1 run defense (70.8 yards per game) in the FBS.

It’s not a surprise to anyone in the program, least of all Cignetti.

“This team’s accomplished a lot, I’m proud of what they’ve accomplished,” Cignetti said. “I think the coaches have done a great job, players have done a great job. But in saying that, no one’s satisfied. The players are hungry for more, the coaches are hungry for more.”