BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana is off to a good start in Big Ten play, most recently defeating Penn State 77-71 Sunday to improve to 3-1 in the conference and 12-3 overall. Coach Mike Woodson and the Hoosiers will look to keep that momentum rolling with a 7 p.m. ET tipoff Wednesday against USC at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. 

The Trojans are 9-5 overall and 1-2 in Big Ten play in coach Eric Musselman’s first season after Saturday’s 85-74 home loss to Michigan. Musselman built an entirely new roster with 11 transfers and two freshmen after coming over from a successful run at Arkansas, where he had two Elite Eight runs and a Sweet 16 appearance in five seasons. He said Saturday he has no timetable for the return of injured players Terrance Williams (10.6 ppg) and Matt Knowling (3.8 ppg).

Defeating USC won’t do much to help Indiana’s resume – the Trojans are ranked No. 94 in the NET – but the Hoosiers must avoid a loss as they approach a stretch with 11 straight opportunities for Quad 1 wins.

Here are three things to watch as Indiana hosts USC, the first Big Ten newcomer on the men’s side to play at Assembly Hall.

1. Can Indiana sustain success without Malik Reneau?

When Malik Reneau went down with a knee injury on the second possession Thursday against Rutgers, some may have pressed the panic button. Reneau was Indiana’s leading scorer at the time, averaging 14.1 points per game and shooting a reliable 60.3% from the field. But over the next 39 minutes versus the Scarlet Knights, and in Sunday’s road game against Penn State, the Hoosiers put together two of their best performances of the season.

Rutgers star freshman Ace Bailey hung 39 points on the Hoosiers, but Indiana locked down the rest of the Scarlet Knights in a 10-point win. Woodson rolled with a starting lineup of Myles Rice, Trey Galloway, Luke Goode, Mackenzie Mgbako and Oumar Ballo, and the Hoosiers picked up their first Quad 1 win of the season against a tough Penn State team.

Ballo was dominant inside against the Nittany Lions, scoring 25 points and grabbing 13 rebounds. Rice handled Penn State’s pressure defense better than any Hoosier could last season. Without Reneau, Woodson played smaller lineups with more ball handlers and shooters, and Goode and Mgbako combined to make 7-of-12 3-point attempts.

We’ll get a better sense for Reneau’s status when the Big Ten availability report comes out Wednesday afternoon, but Woodson shared an update after Sunday’s win. 

“Don’t know when he’s gonna be back,” Woodson said. “It’s kind of in the medical [staff’s] hand. I mean, he didn’t tear up anything, but don’t know when he’s gonna come back. I really don’t, and I just gotta follow the doctor’s lead and he’s gotta do what he needs to do to get back when he can. But it won’t be any time soon.”

2. Does USC have an answer for Oumar Ballo?

Reneau’s potential absence places a greater emphasis on Ballo, offensively and defensively. The 7-footer is averaging 13.6 points and 8.6 rebounds, plus a career-high 66.7% field goal percentage, 2.5 assists and 1.9 blocks per game.

Ballo is tough for any opponent to stop inside, and he may be an even more difficult matchup for USC. Josh Cohen, a 6-foot-10 transfer from UMass, has started all 14 games for USC this season, but he only plays 16.7 minutes per game. Aside from Cohen, USC’s rotation does not include a player taller than 6-foot-8.

In Saturday’s loss to Michigan, Musselman went to a smaller lineup with 6-foot-8 guard Kevin Patton Jr., who played 28 minutes off the bench.

“When we had our traditional center in there, he was minus-23 while he was on the floor, so we’ve gotta have better play when we play with a traditional big,” Musselman said Saturday. “I thought our small-ball lineup did a great job of getting us back in the game. … I’m shocked that our small ball was able to withstand their roster, to be honest with you, but they did.”

3. Can Indiana keep USC off the free throw line?

Staying out of foul trouble is especially important Wednesday for Indiana for a few reasons. Indiana’s depth has taken a major hit with Reneau, Cupps and Newton out. Against Penn State, Indiana’s bench – Anthony Leal, Bryson Tucker, Kanaan Carlyle and Landgon Hatton – combined for three points on 1-for-8 shooting in 46 minutes. Indiana can’t afford to lose Ballo to foul trouble, assuming Reneau does not play. Woodson hasn’t found consistent production off the bench, even with a fully healthy roster. 

The other reason for the heightened importance of Indiana’s foul situation is that USC succeeds at getting to the free throw line. The Trojans rank 36th nationally in free throw rate and attempt 22.6 per game. Their offense has not been good overall this season, ranked 101st in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, so it would benefit the Hoosiers not to give the Trojans opportunities at the free throw line. That’s especially relevant with USC leading scorer Desmond Claude, a 6-foot-6 guard who attempts a team-high 6.3 free throws per game.

Last season, the world saw the early-season rise of Tyrese Haliburton, in which the Pacer guard averaged over 26 points, and 12 assists per game, leading his team to the number one offense in the NBA.

Unfortunately, an avalanche of injuries, including to his knee, ankle, hamstring, and back, forced Haliburton to play the majority of the season in limited fashion. His numbers, understandably so, fell to a point where fans and pundits essentially decided to wait for this season, 2024-2025, to see his full production return.

Inconsistencies

37 games into this season, however, Haliburton is nowhere near the same place as he was to start last season. His 18.4 points, 8.8 assists, and 3.7 rebounds are stil All-Star caliber numbers, but for a team that was expecting their point guard to return to his elite levels of production, it’s been a rough year.

Fortunately for the Pacers, they’re 19-18 and are winning at a decent rate, at least decent enough compete for a Top 6 playoff seed, which means avoiding the play-in tournament altogether. This, in large part, is due to the play of Pascal Siakam, Bennedict Mathurin, and Myles Turner.

Haliburton unquestionably plays a big part in their winning record, inconsistencies aside, but there seems to be a lingering feeling that the Pacers would be considerably better if he was back to form.

In seven games this season, Haliburton has failed to crack double-digit scoring. The Pacers have lost each and every one of those.

In the six games he’s scored over 30 points, they’re 5-1, and have outscored their opponents by 51 points in those five wins.

It’s not rocket science to conclude that teams tend to win more when their best player is producing at elite levels, but in the case of Indiana, it’s absurdly relevant given how one small losing streak can put them right back into play-in territory.

Deadline goals

The Pacers do have a little under a month to further upgrade its roster, which should help offset some of Haliburton’s inconsistent play.

Indiana doesn’t have a major pool of assets to toy around with, and they’re currently over the luxury tax limit by a hair over $400,000 which means they’re probably looking to also shed money to get under it.

(Historically, teams that are so close to go under the tax line make deadline moves that save them just enough to get under, so they can partake in receiving payments from the teams that do go over.)

Can the Pacers make a roster upgrade, and simultaneously get under the tax line? It’s not impossible, but they’ll have to carefully construct a deal that helps both of their endeavors, while also making sure to not waste too much of their future flexibility.

If possible, the franchise should seek out a shooter who can also rebound the ball.

The Pacers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, and while they rank seventh in three-point efficiency, they rank just 27th in attempts, and are thus in need of volume.

Those players aren’t easy to find, so they’ll have to get creative.

Hope ahead

Setting aside the trade deadline, there might be good news coming for the Pacers in regards to Haliburton.

Over his past five games, the 24-year-old has averaged 25.3 points, 9.0 assists, and 5.0 rebounds, including a 33-point, 15-assist performance against Miami.

This has been Haliburton’s best stretch of the season, and the Pacers would love to see him maintain this level of production, especially as they’re paying him over $244.6 million over the next five seasons.

Should the Pacers succeed in making a real upgrade before the deadline, and get Haliburton back to form, they could become a serious surprise team in the East by April.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Indiana basketball returns home on a four-game winning streak to host USC in Big Ten action on Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025.

The Hoosiers (12-3, 3-1) are coming off a victory over highly regarded Penn State in Philadelphia as Oumar Ballo carried the first half and Mackenzie Mgbako heated up early in the second half. Malik Reneau (knee) missed the game, but team officials have said they don’t expect him to be out long term. IU is the Big Ten’s best rebounding team (76.7% defensive rebounds in conference games, 1st; 37.7% offensive rebounds, 2nd).

The Trojans (9-5, 1-2) lost to Michigan over the weekend as they scored just 3 points in final 3 minutes. USC struggles rebounding (68.9% defensive, 12th; 28.6% offensive, 12th) and it doesn’t attempt many 3-pointers (5.0-of-15.7 per game, 31.9% in conference). The Trojans continue to miss Terrance Williams II, the Michigan transfer who suffered a broken wrist in December.

Want more Hoosiers coverage? Zach Osterman and Michael Niziolek keep up with IU all season. Sign up for IndyStar’s Hoosiers newsletter. 

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Insider: For Woodson’s Hoosiers, this is what it looks like when it works

Indiana basketball prediction, pick

Zach Osterman, IndyStar: Indiana 88-81

Indiana has been playing better of late, with good, tough wins against Rutgers and Penn State. USC isn’t bad so much as finding itself, and this feels like the kind of game where a young team rises to the occasion. IU struggles but wins.

When does Indiana basketball play today?

7 p.m. ET Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana.

What channel is the IU basketball game on?

Indiana basketball odds

ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Indiana a 65.4% chance of winning.

Indiana basketball rankings vs. USC

Through Jan. 5

Indiana projected starting lineup

(with 2024-25 season averages)

USC projected starting lineup

• Desmond Claude (14.9 points, 3.9 rebounds)
• Chibuzo Agbo (12.8 points, 39.1% 3-pointers, 4.3 rebounds)
• Josh Cohen (9.7 points)
• Saint Thomas (9.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.3 assists)
• Wesley Yates III (9.1 points)

Indiana basketball schedule

Jan. 2: Indiana 84, Rutgers 74

Jan. 5: Indiana 77, Penn State 71

Wed., Jan. 8: vs. USC, 7 p.m., BTN

Sat., Jan. 11: at Iowa, 8 p.m., Fox

Tues., Jan. 14: vs. Illinois, 7 p.m., Peacock

USC basketball schedule

Dec. 22: USC 82, Southern 51

Jan. 4: Michigan 85, USC 74

Wed., Jan. 8: at Indiana, 7 p.m., BTN

Sat., Jan. 11: at Illinois, noon, BTN

Tues., Jan. 14: vs. Iowa, 10:30 p.m., BTN