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Early voting numbers suggest strong turnout, but which candidate benefits?

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Early voting numbers suggest strong turnout, but which candidate benefits?


Chris and Shelby Ashby waited about an hour and a half Tuesday morning to vote at St. Luke’s United Methodist Church in Indianapolis, where the line coiled around temporary fences before stretching into the parking lot. 

The Indianapolis couple’s toddler was in preschool, and they were hoping to avoid the long lines on Election Day. 

Chris Ashby said he was motivated to vote for Democrat Jennifer McCormick in the governor’s race and Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election. 

“We rank too low in education,” Ashby said. “[McCormick] is an educator, and it was the most important issue for me.” 

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Shelby Ashby said it was “very important we have the right people in charge,” a reference toHarris. 

At the same location, Claire Baker, also of Indianapolis, waited three hours to vote. This was her first time voting early. 

“It’s always a privilege to exercise my right to vote,” Baker said. She was most excited to cast a ballot for former President Donald Trump in the presidential election. 

The wait was at least an hour in neighboring Hamilton County, where Fishers resident Blake Broeker said as left the county fairgrounds that he was also motivated to vote for Trump. 

Early voting is well underway in Indiana, where nearly 955,000 people had submitted ballots as of Tuesday. That number marks a strong turnout that trailed only the record-setting early turnout of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic pushed more Hoosiers to vote early — either in person or by mail. 

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Election experts were encouraged by the turnout thus far but stopped short of forecasting an advantage for either party or candidate based on the numbers. 

“If you’d have told me that a quarter of the turnout in 2020 would have already voted in Indiana with a week to go, I would have been surprised,” said Michael Wolf, political science chair and professor at Purdue University Fort Wayne. “It is quite a surprise. If you want people to participate, then early voting is clearly working.”

What the early voting numbers show

(Design: Joy Walstrum)

So far, 2024’s turnout lags behind 2020 figures but is well ahead of 2016 numbers. 

In 2020, more than 1,358,000 Hoosiers had voted by the week before Election Day. The total in 2016 was about 571,000. 

According to Democratic data firm TargetSmart, about 54% of the ballots returned thus far belonged to women — a similar proportion to voter splits in 2020. 

The split by age demographics is starker. 

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In 2020, about 31% of ballots returned at this point belonged to voters under 50 years old, while about 42% came from people over 65. 

This year, about 25% of ballots collected thus far came from voters under 50. About 49% of votes belonged to Hoosiers over 65. 

What the numbers don’t show

“We know how many people voted early, but we have no idea who they voted for,” Indiana University Professor Emeritus Marjorie Hershey said. 

Trump vilified the early voting practice in 2020, Hershey said, and Democrats tended to take the pandemic more seriously. That meant early voting numbers skewed Democratic. 

But more Republicans have embraced the practice in 2024, making it impossible to speculate about which candidates benefit from strong early turnout, according to Hershey.  

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It’s also too early to make such assumptions. 

“Typically, what happens is a wave for one candidate or the other in the last few days,” Hershey said. “But it’s impossible to know who that will be.”

Competitive governor’s race could be driving turnout

Wolf, the Purdue professor, said the gubernatorial race between Republican U.S. Sen. Mike Braun and McCormick, the state’s former superintendent of public instruction, may be a factor in the high turnout. 

“People are paying attention to the governor’s race,” he said. “It’s hard to punch through the national-level stuff, but the candidates have had good, crisp debates.”

McCormick is airing commercials paid for with out-of-state money, Wolf said, and Republican groups have moved to match — meaning they must see the race tightening. 

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“To have two candidates who have held statewide office matters,” Wolf said. “Both candidates have run solid campaigns, and McCormick has produced a narrative that will have some people more engaged.” 

Voting lines outside of Indianapolis 

One statewide advocacy group is noting long early voting lines in places where they have not been seen before. 

“It’s not unusual to see long lines and waits in Marion County, but we’re hearing about lines in other parts of the state,” said Julia Vaughn, executive director of the voter rights advocacy group Common Cause Indiana. “Two hours in Carmel. An hour and a half in Allen County.” 

Vaughn was cautiously optimistic about the turnout thus far. 

“It would be great if, [with] this election, Indiana could get out of the cellar in terms of voter turnout,” she said. 

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Several key issues, such as health care and education, were motivating voters more than specific candidates in this cycle, Vaughn said. 

She is rooting for the heavy turnout to continue through Tuesday. 

“I hope vote centers aren’t ghost towns on Election Day,” she said. 

Contact Rory Appleton on X at @roryehappleton or email him at [email protected].

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Is ‘The Bachelorette’ happening? This Carmel contestant weighs in

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Is ‘The Bachelorette’ happening? This Carmel contestant weighs in


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Should ABC air the canceled-for-now season of “The Bachelorette”? A Carmel man who was set to compete on it seems to think so.

Matt Carroll, a 43-year-old Purdue basketball alum and Carmel resident, took to social media over the weekend to address the cancelation of season 22 of “The Bachelorette,” on which he appeared. Public opinion on whether the show should see the light of day is split, but the former Boilermaker forward and industrial real estate broker hopes the footage makes it to air.

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Disney and ABC pulled season 22 of “The Bachelorette” because its lead, “Secret Lives of Mormon Wives” star Taylor Frankie Paul, faces an ongoing domestic violence investigations. The network announced the decision March 19 after TMZ leaked a video from a 2023 domestic violence incident involving Paul and her ex Dakota Mortensen.

Neither Carroll nor the show have officially commented on the cancelation, but that doesn’t mean he and other contestants haven’t hinted at their feelings on social media.

Carroll’s Instagram reel — in which he struts through the streets of Carmel, rose in hand, RAYE’s “Where the Hell is My Husband” soundtracking it all — breaks the ice. “So…about that,” he joked, tagging both “The Bachelorette” and Bachelor Nation, the franchise’s official hub for news and content.

The reel has garnered comments from fellow Carmel residents wishing Carroll well, even offering to set him up with local singles. Notably, though, some of Carroll’s followers have called for the season to air — and he agrees.

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“Trying to manifest that they still air this,” one comment from model Brittany Mason reads. “America wants it the world wants it!”

“From your lips to God’s ears,” Carroll replied.

Another response from him put it more plainly:

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“I’m still hoping they decide to air it.”

Whether “The Bachelorette” will air is unclear. Disney Entertainment Television’s official statement only indicated that it was halting the season “for now,” so it’s possible the network could dust off the footage and air it after all.

Contact IndyStar Pop Culture Reporter Heather Bushman at hbushman@indystar.com. Follow her on X @hmb_1013.



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Game times announced for Saturday’s Final Four in Indianapolis

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Game times announced for Saturday’s Final Four in Indianapolis


INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) – The 2026 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament’s Final Four is set.

Four teams have advanced to the Final Four and will compete for the national championship this upcoming weekend in Indianapolis.

The two national semifinal matchups will take place on Saturday. Tip times for the two games have been announced:

  • 6:09 p.m. EDT – No. 3 seed Illinois vs. No. 2 seed UConn
  • 8:49 p.m. EDT – No. 1 seed Michigan vs. No. 1 seed Arizona

The winners of Saturday’s games will then play in the National Championship Game on Monday, April 6.

Each game will take place inside Lucas Oil Stadium.

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Hundreds gather at Indiana State Capitol for ‘No Kings’ protest

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Hundreds gather at Indiana State Capitol for ‘No Kings’ protest


INDIANAPOLIS — Hundreds of Hoosiers gathered at the Indiana Statehouse Saturday morning as part of nationwide ‘No Kings’ events to voice their concerns about the current administration.

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Hundreds gather at Indiana State Capitol for ‘No Kings’ protest

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“I’m out here today because what’s happening in our government is completely trash,” Donna Sipes told WRTV. “It’s wrong. We need to do something about it.”

“I’m tired of every single day when the TV comes on to see what stupid thing he’s done next,” Lindi Marti said.

WRTV

Attendees noted the growing popularity of the demonstrations.

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“This is my fourth one to come to. I didn’t come to all of them when it was really cold, but I’m glad to see that they are getting a lot more people out here every time,” Marti added. “It seems like there’s more and more coming.”

Demonstrators highlighted specific foreign policy concerns, including the administration’s handling of the war in Iran.

“We’re bombing the heck out of them. We’re killing civilians,” Marti’s husband said. “We’re getting ready to send our Marines.”

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WRTV

Others focused on the administration’s handling of immigration.

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“That’s what I’m concerned about,” Reverend Kenny Little told WRTV. “Little kids, they’re taking them away from their family. And I’m just one of those people, I think everyone got rights.”

Indiana medical students also attended the rally to speak out against changes to the healthcare system.

“We’re really worried about the attacks on the health care system in general, but with Medicaid… current estimates range from anywhere from 325,000 to 450,000 Hoosiers will lose coverage by 2032,” Wade Catt said with concern.

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With midterm elections approaching later this year, attendees emphasized the importance of now taking action at the ballot box.

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“If we don’t vote, then things are gonna not, they’re gonna stay the same,” a protester said.

Meanwhile, Indiana Lieutenant Governor Micah Beckwith says he’s happy to see Hoosiers exercise their First Amendment right to protest.

However, he takes issue with the idea that President Trump is acting like a king. Beckwith says the fact that people have the freedom to protest is proof that the president is not acting like a tyrant.

He acknowledges that bridging the gap between the sides is probably an uphill battle, but believes communication is key.

“I think when you sit down with people face to face, you’re confronted with humanity. There’s another human sitting across that table from you and talking to you. And so, all I have to say, I think that’s probably the thing I would encourage all Hoosiers to do is say, ‘Hey, if you don’t agree with somebody or if you don’t like somebody, why don’t you try grabbing coffee with them? And give it 30 minutes, and just see what happens.’ I bet most of the time people will walk away with a much softer heart and spirit towards that person before they came in,” Beckwith said.

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Beckwith is currently on a 92-county tour of the state. He says all sides are welcome to attend his events.

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