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Illinois-Penn State 3 keys and a prediction: Is drama finally in store for Nittany Lions?

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Illinois-Penn State 3 keys and a prediction: Is drama finally in store for Nittany Lions?


It’s not the White Out, but the energy Saturday night in and around Beaver Stadium is likely going to feel like a marquee home game.

This isn’t the kind of matchup many expected, myself included, when the schedule was released. No. 9 Penn State (3-0) has a homecoming game that suddenly features two ranked opponents. No. 19 Illinois (4-0) returns to the place where it last needed nine overtimes to beat the Nittany Lions in 2021.

Over time, Penn State and Illinois have given college football fans quite a few dramatic moments. Overcoming a 21-0 first quarter deficit added to the legacy of Penn State’s undefeated 1994 team, a group that will be honored on the field Saturday. There was also LaVar Arrington’s famous leap in 1999 that won’t soon be forgotten in State College or Champaign, Ill. Joe Paterno’s 409th career win, his last as Penn State’s head coach, came in a 10-7 win against the Illini in 2011.

Will Saturday night live up to some of the drama these teams have produced before? We’re certainly going to learn much more about this team. Here are three keys and a prediction.

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How do Drew Allar, receivers handle Illinois’ man coverage?

This is the best test to date for Andy Kotelnicki’s offense. The Illini are 32nd nationally in total defense, surrendering an average of 292.3 yards per game. West Virginia, Penn State’s Week 1 opponent, is 102nd, while Bowling Green is 110th. Last week’s record-setting offensive performance against Kent State, in which Allar exited early in the third quarter with a 35-0 lead, was not a good barometer for much of anything.

Still, the Penn State offense has been as advertised this year, averaging 537.7 yards and 41.3 points per game. It’s been explosive, quick-strike and dynamic with lots of pre-snap motion and creativity. Penn State won’t march up and down the field all night against a Bret Bielema team. But, we should find out how this offense responds to a true test.

Can Penn State string together a long, sustained drive if it needs to? For all the strides this receiving corps has made, whether it’s been Harrison Wallace III, Omari Evans or tight end Tyler Warren, how does it stack up against better defensive backs?

Count James Franklin among those who are curious to learn more.

“Their secondary is really going to be a challenge for us,” Franklin said. “Our wide receivers have taken a really nice step and made some really good strides since last season, but we will be challenged.”

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Do the wrinkles create pause?

Throughout nonconference play, Kotelnicki has shown countless creative wrinkles. Backup quarterback Beau Pribula has a role in every game. Warren, a tight end, has thrown a touchdown pass and taken a direct snap. Offensive lineman Vega Ioane could line up again as a lead blocker. There will be other options off many of these plays depending on how and when Kotelnicki uses them.

Illinois, like most opponents, can go back to Kansas’ film to see more of what Kotelnicki did prior to arriving at Penn State. How much time did Illinois’ defense spend this week trying to decipher all Penn State has shown and what it could show based off Kansas?

While Kotelnicki is willing to use his creativity at any point on the field, Penn State has scored on 13 of 14 trips to the red zone this season. Twelve of those trips have resulted in touchdowns. Doing anything to slow down defensive end Gabe Jacas will be key. Jacas forced two fumbles this season to go along with four tackles for loss and two sacks.

What’s the next gear for this Penn State defense?

Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton each recorded a sack against Kent State, their first of the season. They haven’t stuffed the stat sheet like most expected during nonconference games. Franklin insists it’s the style Bowling Green and Kent State played: Get the ball out quickly and limit the opportunities for two two talented edge rushers to go to work.

All of that changes now. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has completed 71.4 percent of passes and has yet to throw an interception this season. Altmyer has passed for 862 yards and had a rush of 15 yards or more in three of four games. Illinois is 82nd in total offense, and if Penn State can force it to have to play from behind, then these defensive ends should have plenty of opportunities to generate a pass rush.

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This is as well rested of a Penn State defensive line as one can expect. No defensive lineman played more than 19 snaps and no starter played more than 23 snaps last week against Kent State.

Keep in mind

Penn State still has to work toward a long-term solution at safety without starter KJ Winston. Winston is dealing with a long-term injury, and there’s been no indication if or when he could potentially return. Ideally, freshman Dejuan Lane eventually slides into the starting spot opposite Zakee Wheatley. That solution would allow Jaylen Reed to play the lion position where he’s thrived. Per TruMedia, Lane played 22 snaps against Kent State. How much will they put on the freshman’s plate in conference play?

“I’m thankful for the 7:30 game. I know that sounds silly, but with some of the young guys that we’re playing, we need every minute we can in preparation,” Franklin said.

Don’t forget about

Tom Allen’s new spot. The defensive coordinator called the Kent State game from upstairs. Typically, Allen had been on the sideline while safeties coach Anthony Poindexter was in the booth. The swapped places last week. Franklin was non-committal about the game-day change being permanent, but it seems like the switch was made after communication issues popped up in the first half against Bowling Green.

Playoff implications

A win against a ranked opponent would certainly bolster the College Football Playoff resume. At this point, that’s what it’s all about. There’s certainly some temptation to think a few weeks down the road when Penn State plays No. 13 USC, but until then, this is a solid measuring stick, especially for Allar and the offense.

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Player we’ll be talking about Sunday

Running back Nick Singleton has amassed 314 rushing yards and three total touchdowns through three games. Illinois’ 35th-ranked run defense will be a test, but as Bielema also pointed out, this is the best offensive line his team has seen.

Prediction

This one reminds me of the Iowa game last year. It was a night game, the Hawkeyes were ranked 24th at the time, and yet it never was close. Penn State’s offense had arguably its best showing of the season, and the defense was superb. A similar script could unfold Saturday night under the lights.

Penn State 30, Illinois 13

 (Photo of Omari Evans: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)



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The Final Four is set with UConn stunning Duke to join Illinois, Arizona and Michigan

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The Final Four is set with UConn stunning Duke to join Illinois, Arizona and Michigan


UConn guard Braylon Mullins, right, celebrates his game winning basket with guard Malachi Smith (0) during the second half in the Elite Eight of the NCAA college basketball tournament against Duke, Sunday, March 29, 2026, in Washington.

Stephanie Scarbrough/AP


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All that talent at Arizona and Michigan. All that momentum and good vibes at UConn. And somebody has to be play the part of the unheralded “little guy.” At the Final Four next weekend, that role belongs, improbably, to Illinois.

In a sign of the times, the Illinii — a Big Ten team with more wins in the conference over the last seven seasons than any other program — will pass for something resembling Cinderella when college basketball’s biggest party kicks off in Indianapolis on Saturday.

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The first challenge for coach Brad Underwood’s team will be stopping a hard-charging UConn juggernaut that came from 19 points down and got a game-winner from the logo with 0.4 seconds left from an Indy native — Braylon Mullins — to make its third Final Four in the last four years.

The last two times the Huskies reached this point, they won the championship.

“It’s a UConn culture, a UConn heart,” coach Dan Hurley said. “We believe we’re supposed to win this time of year.”

All these teams do.

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Arizona, led by Brayden Burries, and Michigan, with Yaxel Lendeborg, have up to nine NBA prospects between them.

The Wildcats opened as slight favorites — at plus-165 to win the championship, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. That was a shade ahead of the Wolverines, who are plus-180 after their 95-62 romp over Tennessee on Sunday.

But, in one of a few strange twists on the odds chart, the Wildcats are 1 1/2-point underdogs to Michigan in Saturday night’s second semifinal.

Illinois is a 2 1/2-point favorite over UConn and, in reality, it’s the Huskies, at plus-550, who are the biggest long shot in Indy.

Even so, the fact that Illinois — the flagship university in the nation’s sixth most populous state and a school with an enrollment of nearly 60,000 — feels most like this year’s out-of-nowhere underdog speaks more about the current state of college hoops than the Illini themselves.

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They are a No. 3 seed — the highest number at the Final Four in two years. (UConn is a 2. Last season, all four No. 1s made it.)

This year’s meeting of 1 vs. 1 — Michigan vs. Arizona — is a heavyweight matchup of power teams from power conferences meeting with everything at stake.

It’s a far cry from a mere three years ago, when mid-majors Florida Atlantic (coached by Dusty May, who now leads the Wolverines) and San Diego State crashed college basketball’s biggest party.

Since then, NIL and the transfer portal have redefined the contours of player movement, another spasm of realignment has made the big conferences bigger (Arizona, now in the Big 12, was in the Pac-12 in 2023), and the high-achieving underdogs that used to make March Madness what it is have gone into a slump.

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Double-digit seeds won a total of five games in this tournament (not counting the play-in round). Two years ago, they won 11 and sent one team (N.C. State) to the Final Four.

Not surprisingly, Underwood — the coach who landed on the Illinois radar a decade ago by coaching double-digit seed Stephen F. Austin to a pair of upset wins in the tournament — views his program’s trip to the Final Four more as destiny than a once-in-a-lifetime story.

It is, however, the first trip for Illinois since 2005, when it lost to North Carolina in the title game.

Illinois coach Brad Underwood celebrates after Illinois beat Iowa in an Elite Eight game in the NCAA college basketball tournament Saturday, March 28, 2026, in Houston.

Illinois coach Brad Underwood celebrates after Illinois beat Iowa in an Elite Eight game in the NCAA college basketball tournament Saturday, March 28, 2026, in Houston.

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“I don’t want to sound arrogant,” said Underwood, whose teams have won 96 Big Ten games since 2019-20, two more than Purdue. “I’ve never doubted us getting to a Final Four would happen. I have thought we have had other teams capable. But I also know how doggone hard it is to do it.”

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The Big Ten knows all about this. Both Illinois and Michigan have a chance to deliver a title for the conference for the first time since Michigan State won it all in 2000.

Illinois vs. UConn

The Illini, led by the so-called “Balkan Bloc” — a cohort of players with roots in Eastern Europe — have a potential NBA lottery pick of their own in guard Keaton Wagler.

Even so, the best-known name on the Illini roster might be Andrej Stojakovic, whose father, Peja, was a three-time NBA All-Star. Illinois is the third school in three years for the younger Stojakovic, who spent one season at Stanford and another at Cal before joining Underwood’s crew.

The task for Illinois: Figuring out who to key on across a roster that has five players who average double figures, led by Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan vs. Arizona

Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg (23) celebrates after defeating Tennessee in the Elite Eight of the NCAA college basketball tournament, Sunday, March 29, 2026, in Chicago.

Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg (23) celebrates after defeating Tennessee in the Elite Eight of the NCAA college basketball tournament, Sunday, March 29, 2026, in Chicago.

Erin Hooley/AP

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The Wildcats-Wolverines game is a high-powered matchup of programs that have shown there’s more than one way to amass talent in the era of the unlimited transfer portal and big-money name, image and likeness deals.

Four of the five starters for Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats began their careers in Tucson; the fifth, Big 12 player of the year Jaden Bradley, moved over from Alabama and has been with the Wildcats for three years.

Meanwhile, the top four players in minutes played at Michigan — Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr., Aday Mara and Elliot Cadeau — all arrived from the transfer portal.

In a twist that makes perfect sense these days, both coaches parlayed roots in the mid-majors to a spot on the sport’s biggest stage. Lloyd spent decades as a top assistant for Mark Few at Gonzaga before heading to Arizona to rebuild the program after the ouster of Sean Miller in 2021.

May led FAU to the Final Four before heading to the Michigan program that had thrived, then collapsed, under former Fab Five star Juwan Howard.

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Decorated Illinois guard Josh Gesky met with Saints ahead of draft

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Decorated Illinois guard Josh Gesky met with Saints ahead of draft


Once again, the NFL pre-draft circuit is in full effect, as teams spread out their staff all over the country to try and ensure they view as many pro days as physically possible. With some of the most substantial schools being next up on the schedule, it is going to draw national attention from the media, especially with results from the top prospects and potentially some passing drills from the quarterbacks.

Among the plentiful news coming out of these events is some intriguing meetings from the New Orleans Saints, with one of the most recent being Illinois guard Josh Gesky, who they met with at the school.

Gesky had an extremely impressive 2025 season when it comes to the metrics, allowing only 1 sack and 12 pressures, while only having 1 penalty tied to his name. While his run blocking left a bit to be desired, he has shown promise there in previous years, and it is something he has been solid at in various years.

At 6-foot-5 and 335 pounds, he has great size and has quite a few distinctions during his time at Illinois. He was listed as a Big Ten Distinguished Scholar in 2023, an Academic All-Big Ten from 2022 to 2025, and was an All-Big Ten Honorable Mention from 2023 to 2025. These types of things certainly factor into potential draft selections, and with the Saints needing another guard, Gesky could be an option for them in 2026.

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How to buy Illinois Final Four gear, hats, shirts, hoodies, more

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How to buy Illinois Final Four gear, hats, shirts, hoodies, more


No. 3 Illinois knocked off No. 9 Iowa on Saturday night in Houston, now they’re advancing to the Final Four in the men’s NCAA Tournament.

The Fighting Illini pulled away late and ended their the Hawkeye’s Cinderella run in the Elite Eight with a 71-59 victory.

SHOP: Illinois Final Four tickets

Illinois fans know this is special, it’s the team’s first Final Four appearance since 2005, so now it’s time to celebrate.

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Get the gear the players wore on the court, including Illinois Final Four hats, Illinois Final Four shirts, and more.

Shop ALL Illinois Final Four gear

Illinois Final Four hat

Illinois Final Four shirt

Illinois Final Four game location

Illinois will play its Final Four game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Get your Illinois Final Four NCAA Tournament tickets now.

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Illinois Final Four appearances

The last time the Illinois Fighting Illini men’s basketball team made the Final Four was in 2005. They also made it in 1989, 1952, 1951 and 1949.

When is the Final Four?

The 2026 NCAA Tournament concludes with the Final Four on Saturday, April 4 and the National Championship game on Monday, April 6. Saturday’s games are scheduled for 6 p.m. and 8:30 p.m. ET respectively, while the National Championship game is set to tip at 8:30 p.m. ET on Monday, April 6.

March Madness 2026 full schedule for the men’s tournament

  • March 19-20: First round
  • March 21-22: Second round
  • March 26-27: Sweet 16
  • March 28-29: Elite 8
  • April 4-5: Final Four
  • April 6: National Championship

Shop ALL March Madness tickets



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