Illinois, the No. 23 team in the country, opened as a 17.5-point favorite against lowly Purdue. Anyone who has followed the Illini for any length of time knows it’s practically unheard of for this program to go into any Big Ten game with such a perceived advantage.

Yeah, well, this was one huge spread that apparently wasn’t close to being huge enough. Early betting ballooned the line all the way up to 22.5 by midweek, easily making it one of college football’s biggest Week 7 movers.

The biggest mover was in the UAB-Army game; Army opened as an 18.5-point favorite, but a few days later the number was all the way up to 26.5. No. 1-ranked Texas opened as an 8.5-point favorite against Red River rival Oklahoma, but soon enough it was at 14.5. The Cincinnati-USF, Air Force-New Mexico and Appalachian State-Louisiana spreads also changed by at least four points.

Why the Illini? It might not be bettors’ confidence in them that moved the needle so dramatically. The Boilermakers are so bad – and the atmosphere surrounding coach Ryan Walters so negative – that perception of arguably the Power 4’s worst team is getting worse by the day.

Illinois vs. Purdue: Week 7 Odds, Ends and Prediction

Purdue Coach Ryan Walters Returns to Champaign: A Tough Journey Back

Big Ten Football Week 7 Power Rankings: Illinois Stays in Place After Bye

Illinois State quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse, a junior out of St. Francis High School in Wheaton, has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards and led the Redbirds to a 4-2 record.
Photo courtesy of Illinois State University Athletics

At the start of the season, Illinois State coach Brock Spack tried to sell the idea of a two-quarterback offense.

The plan was to utilize both junior Tommy Rittenhouse from St. Francis and Kansas State transfer Jake Rubley. Both have played in every game, but Rittenhouse has taken the majority of snaps and proved he can handle the job, throwing for nearly 1,000 yards while leading the No. 16 Redbirds to a 4-2 record.

One preseason article described Rittenhouse as primarily a running quarterback. That may have been true in 2022 when he made his first start against Youngstown State, throwing for 103 yards and running for 81. But not now.

“I feel this whole off-season I did a really good job attacking my passing game and doing what was necessary to improve that aspect,” he said in a phone interview. “It feels really good. The guys around me are all doing their jobs.”

Rittenhouse has two primary receiving targets. One is Rolling Meadows grad Daniel Sobkowicz with 24 catches for 308 yards, slightly behind fellow wide receiver Xavier Loyd.

Rolling Meadows alumnus Daniel Sobkowicz has 24 catches for 308 yards this season.
Photo courtesy of Illinois State University Athletics

Last week in a 45-10 victory at Southern Illinois, Rittenhouse scored on a 36-yard run and found Sobkowicz for a 38-yard touchdown. Then Sobkowicz threw a TD pass of his own, covering 28 yards to Loyd.

Sobkowicz, whose older brother Max also played at ISU, made his mark quickly, leading the Redbirds in receiving as a redshirt freshman in 2022. Rittenhouse was the backup QB the past two seasons but did start five games due to injuries to starter Zack Anexstad.

“I think he’s just got that ‘it’ factor,” Rittenhouse said of Sobkowicz. “He knows the game very well, recognizes coverages. I feel we’re developing that chemistry. Came in the same class freshman year.”

One storyline with Rittenhouse going back to his high school days is he’s diabetic. He regularly takes insulin shots on the sideline during games and has to monitor his blood sugar.

“It’s maybe a little harder (to deal with) in college,” he said. “I think the intensity of a game is a lot more to handle. But I’ve had it since I was 4 years old, so I kind of know what I need to take into factor on game day and practice. Nothing I can’t really handle.”

Before arriving at Illinois State, Sobkowicz might have been better known as a basketball player at Rolling Meadows. He grew up with current Lakers guard Max Christie, and the two played on some very good teams.

“Maybe in junior, senior year of high school, my main sport was probably basketball,” he said. “I still really miss basketball. I played (with Christie) since the feeder program, fourth or fifth grade. I’ve known him for a long time, played with his brother (Cam) in high school too. We’ve always been pretty good friends.”

Last season, Sobkowicz threw two passes in games. One went for a touchdown and one was intercepted.

“I think I regained (offensive coordinator Tony Petersen’s) trust,” he said. “It’s good that we’re utilizing that.”

Illinois State hasn’t been to the FCS playoffs since 2019. After rolling past SIU, the Redbirds seem to be the state of Illinois’ best chance of getting there, especially since they don’t play either of the South Dakota schools, both ranked in the top five. ISU will host No. 25 Missouri State on Saturday in Normal.

“We’re in the (Missouri) Valley (Conference) so we’re going to get tough games each week, no matter the opponent,” Rittenhouse said. “We’ve got to approach every the same, continue to focus on our execution and continue having fun with the season.”

FCS roundup:

Southern Illinois has lost three quarterbacks to long-term injuries, leaving true freshman Jake Curry from Edwardsville to finish the game against Illinois State. According to Prairie State Pigskin, the Salukis are trying to add graduate assistant Michael Lindauer to the active roster to give them a second option at QB. … After snapping a long losing streak, Western Illinois made it two wins in a row by beating Charleston Southern 31-20 last weekend. Linebacker Juan Dela Cruz (Warren) had a team-high 10 tackles. … Linebacker Anthony Shockey (Glenbard East) had a team-high 12 tackles in EIU’s loss to Southeast Missouri.

Local standouts:

Possibly the game of the week in Division III was Wisconsin-Platteville’s 30-27 overtime victory at No. 5 Wisconsin-LaCrosse. Platteville used a trick play for the winning touchdown, a lateral pass from QB Michael Priami (St. Charles North) to wide receiver Brandt Stare (Neuqua Valley), who fired it into the end zone for Ryan Doherty (St. Charles North). …

Running back Ta’Vion Geanes (Willowbrook) notched a career-high 115 yards on just 13 carries in Aurora’s 45-14 victory over Wisconsin Lutheran. … Wide receiver Breyden Smith (Hersey) piled up 10 catches for 135 yards for Augustana in an overtime loss to North Park. … Mark Gronowski (Neuqua Valley) threw three touchdown passes, including a 66-yarder, in South Dakota State’s 41-3 victory at Northern Iowa.

Barry Lunney Jr.’s offense has gotten off to a strong start in 2024 but will need to regroup a bit following the Illini’s loss to Penn State in which it was held to just seven points.

They’ll have a great opportunity to get things rolling again on Saturday against a Purdue, a defense that has mightily struggled and has been on the field just about as much as anybody in America through five games.

As detailed yesterday, it’s been a brutal go of things for Ryan Walters and the Boilers this year. Walters remains the defensive play caller, so it will be interesting to monitor how much his familiarity with Illinois plays a factor but on paper, this is a unit Illinois should be able to attack.

Let’s take a look at what’s in store on defense for the Boilermakers:

Purdue defense

As a whole, the Purdue defense has been downright dreadful. The Boilers are allowing 436.8 yards per game and 36.8 points per game, both last in the Big Ten by a wide margin and near the bottom of the entire FBS.

A big reason for that — the run defense. Purdue’s 239.2 yards per game allowed on the ground are third worst nationally, only ahead of New Mexico and Kent State. Context is important in that the Boilers have fallen significantly behind in every FBS game and opened itself up to clock management, but there’s been very little resistance to opposing runners so far.

The Boilers’ defensive line is relatively light and has been prone to being overpowered at the line of scrimmage, leading to a ton of explosive running plays. Notre Dame and Oregon State in particular were able to grind Purdue away with chunk run after chunk run to the tune of 340+ rushing yards a piece.

Against the pass, the Boilers haven’t been quite as pitiful, but they sure haven’t been good despite minimal volume given their run defense struggles. The secondary is led by safety Dillon Thieneman, a freshman All-American in 2023 who will move around quite a bit.

The back end of the Boiler defense did take a huge hit a week ago, however, when top cornerback Markevious Brown stepped away from the program. His loss showed up in a big way last week against Wisconsin, as Badgers backup quarterback Braedyn Locke threw for 361 yards, including two touchdowns of 52 and 69 yards.

Purdue has also been called for the most pass interference penalties among power four teams in 2024, bolstered by six in one game against Nebraska. And the two interceptions that nickelback Kyndrich Breedlove hauled in against Wisconsin were the first and only two takeaways the Boilers have all season.

The one trick that Ryan Walters does have up his sleeve is his complex blitzing schemes, which Illini fans are more than familiar with. The Boilermakers have been poor at generating pressure with traditional three and four-man rushes, but Walters still isn’t afraid to dial up his fair share of blitzes. Linebacker Kydran Jenkins has been a real weapon in those — compiling 11 pressures and four sacks in just 56 pass rush snaps.

Illinois will certainly have to be prepared for some special wrinkles in this matchup, but they’ll have plenty of avenues to light up the scoreboard if they execute.

Three keys for the Illini offense against Purdue:

1. Sustain drives — Purdue’s defense has been on the field longer than any power four unit in the country. Illinois can’t let them get a breather on Saturday. If the Illini can get their run game going against a Purdue defense that hasn’t stopped anybody on the ground and Luke Altmyer can attack the Boiler secondary with his go-to weapons, Illinois has a chance to cruise. The Boilermaker defense has especially been putrid in second halves, not surprising given their time on the field, and the Illini can really wear them out early with a couple long, punishing drives.
2. Find a new gear in the run game — The Illini rushing offense has struggled for much of the year, but this is the ultimate opportunity for that to change. And not just slightly, but preferably in a major way against the country’s second worst run defense. We haven’t yet seen a ton of explosiveness out of any of the Illini’s four running backs, but this matchup is that could easily see a guy break through with a long touchdown run. How about getting Kaden Feagin a 100+ yard game to boost his confidence ahead of huge matchups with Michigan and Oregon?
3. Be prepared for pressure — There isn’t necessarily any statistical evidence to back this up, but I have a feeling Ryan Walters is going to pull out all of the stops in this matchup against his former team. He’s been effective his entire career as a coordinator with his blitz packages — he just hasn’t had the personnel for many of them at Purdue. Illinois needs to be prepared, especially if they put themselves in some longer yardage situations, for some pressure wrinkles from Walters and Co. The offensive line will have to communicate well, and Luke Altmyer could need to make a few quick decisions. The good news is, that should leave some favorable matchups for Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin on the perimeter, and they’ll have the chance to eat.