Health
Superbugs due to antibiotic resistance could kill 39 million people by 2050, large study finds
Resistance to antibiotics has led to one million worldwide deaths each year since 1990, for a total of 36 million.
It is expected to cause more than 39 million more fatalities by 2050 — three per minute.
That’s according to a large study led by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project, a partnership between the University of Oxford and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
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After analyzing 520 million health records, the researchers provided future estimates for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations and 11 infectious syndromes across 204 countries and territories, according to a GRAM press release.
Resistance to antibiotics has led to one million worldwide deaths each year since 1990, for a total of 36 million. (iStock)
Findings from the study were published in The Lancet on Monday.
What is antimicrobial resistance?
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) occurs when bacteria and other types of germs become stronger than the medications given to treat them, creating so-called “superbugs.”
This can make infections difficult or impossible to treat, per the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
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“In modern medicine, the use of antibiotics has allowed us to successfully perform organ transplants, complex surgical procedures and care for extremely preterm infants,” Jasmine Riviere Marcelin, MD, a fellow of the Infectious Diseases Society of America and infectious diseases professor at the University of Nebraska — who was not involved in the study — told Fox News Digital.
“These interventions have been successful because antibiotics have allowed us to prevent and treat infections in these critically ill patients.”
Antimicrobial resistance occurs when bacteria and other types of germs become stronger than the medications given to treat them, creating so-called “superbugs.” (iStock)
Now, antibiotic-resistant bacteria pose a “significant health risk,” she warned, because they prevent the ability to treat or prevent infections.
“Not only will our advancements in medicine be at risk, but we may find ourselves back to where we were in the pre-antibiotic era, when mortality from simple skin/soft tissue infections was significant,” Marcelin added.
“We may find ourselves back to where we were in the pre-antibiotic era.”
Maureen Tierney, MD, associate dean of clinical research and public health at Creighton University School of Medicine in Omaha, Nebraska, was also not involved in the study, but confirmed that it is “the most comprehensive attempt to determine the burden of antimicrobial resistance [in terms of] disability and death.”
“This was an enormous effort using all different sources of data in countries around the world to estimate the number of deaths caused by microorganisms resistant to several types of antibiotics,” she told Fox News Digital.
Marking key shifts
Since 1990, the infection that caused the biggest increase was MRSA (methicillin-resistant S. aureus), a type of staph bacteria that has become resistant to some antibiotics.
Annual MRSA-related deaths increased from 57,200 in 1990 to 130,000 in 2021, the study found.
Despite the overall increase in AMR-related mortality, deaths among kids younger than 5 were cut in half between 1990 and 2021.
Since 1990, the infection that caused the biggest increase was MRSA (methicillin-resistant S. aureus), a type of staph bacteria that has become resistant to some antibiotics. (iStock)
The researchers attributed this to childhood vaccination programs and wider access to drinking water, sanitation and hygiene practices.
The sharpest increase was among adults 70 and older, who saw a more than 80% uptick in AMR deaths.
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“Researchers expect these trends to continue in the coming decades, with AMR deaths among children under 5 projected to halve by 2050 globally, as deaths among people 70 years and older more than double,” the press release stated.
Geographically, deaths rose the most in western sub-Saharan Africa, tropical Latin America, high-income North America, Southeast Asia and South Asia.
Combating antimicrobial resistance
Next week, global health leaders plan to meet at the UN General Assembly in New York to discuss new strategies for addressing AMR.
Potential interventions include “infection prevention and control measures, such as new vaccines and antimicrobials, and improved access to water and sanitation — as well as deeper investments across health systems in diagnostics, training and new technologies,” the release stated.
“The most important ways to decrease the incidence of antibiotic resistance are vaccination for pneumonia, influenza, COVID, measles and other diseases,” an infectious diseases expert told Fox News Digital. (Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images))
“The most important ways to decrease the incidence of antibiotic resistance are vaccination for pneumonia, influenza, COVID, measles and other diseases,” Tierney from Creighton University told Fox News Digital.
Tierney also calls for “antimicrobial stewardship” – which she defines as “the judicious use of antibiotics in humans, animals and farming” – as well as infection prevention practices, especially in health care facilities, and the development of new antibiotics.
“Antibiotics are a shared natural resource that we must all protect.”
While creating new drugs is one way to combat AMR, Marcelin warned that relying only on drug discovery would be “futile,” given the length of time it takes for new medications to be developed, tested and approved.
“The number of new or repurposed antibiotics in late-stage clinical development is very small, and no single antibiotic candidate claims to have activity against those bacteria resistant to all currently available drugs,” she told Fox News Digital.
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“If we can’t make new drugs easily, we can combat resistance by controlling the spread of resistant organisms, which is the principle of infection control.”
To prevent resistance, experts say that antibiotics should be prescribed and used “only when they are indicated, for the optimal duration, and at the right timing and dosing regimen.” (iStock)
To prevent resistance, Marcelin agrees that antibiotics should be prescribed and used “only when they are indicated, for the optimal duration, and at the right timing and dosing regimen.”
She added, “Antibiotics are a shared natural resource that we must all protect, so that we can continue to live in a world where we make medical advances and reduce mortality from bacterial infections.”
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Fox News Digital reached out to GRAM researchers requesting comment.
Over the two and a half years following the 2022 rollout of the 988 national suicide prevention hotline, the rate of suicides among young people in the United States dropped 11 percent below projections, decreasing most sharply in states with a higher volume of answered 988 calls, a new study has found.
The findings, published today as a research letter in JAMA, compared suicide deaths from July 2022 to December 2024 with sophisticated mathematical projections that were based on historical trends. This yielded good news, with 4,372 fewer suicides of adolescents and young adults, ages 15 to 34, than had been projected.
To ensure that the decline was related to the use of the hotline, researchers at Harvard Medical School teased out the trends in states with high and low usage of the hotline. The findings were striking: The 10 states with the largest increases in 988 calls experienced an 18.2 percent reduction in observed suicides compared with expected suicides; in the 10 states with the lowest uptake, the reduction was smaller, 10.6 percent.
The results suggest that the government’s investment in the 988 rollout has translated into “a measurable reduction of deaths,” said Dr. Vishal Patel, a resident physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and one of the authors of the study.
“What our study has added,” he said, “is evidence for the deeper benefit of the program, and that is, that at the population level, among young people at least, suicide mortality is lower than it would have been without the program.”
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He added, “The implication of that is that sustained funding for this program matters.”
The United States rolled out the three-digit hotline with bipartisan support in July 2022, replacing a 10-digit hotline number, and augmented it with a $1.5 billion investment in crisis center capacity. Since its inception, the service has fielded more than 25 million contacts, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. The agency has asked Congress for $534.6 million to fund the program for 2027.
Last summer, the Trump administration terminated one element of the hotline, the Press 3 option for L.G.B.T.Q.+ callers. The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration said that the Press 3 option was being discontinued because it had exhausted its funding from Congress and that the hotline would “focus on serving all help seekers.”
But advocacy groups and policymakers protested the decision, and in testimony before the Senate on Tuesday, the health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., said his agency was planning to restore the Press 3 option.
Dr. Patel said his group had become curious about measuring the program’s effectiveness after Press 3 was eliminated. While call volume and satisfaction surveys suggested that 988 was succeeding, he said, the harder question was, “Did the creation of this 988 program, the transition from the old hotline to this hotline, actually move the needle on suicide mortality?”
Experts said it was difficult to tease out the beneficial effect of 988 from other things that changed in 2022, the year that the new hotline was created. Around that time, suicide prevention programs were being introduced in schools, in faith communities and on social media, but more important, the pandemic was ending.
“We were finally out of this crazy time, and there was a sense of optimism and hope,” said Jonathan B. Singer, a professor of social work at Loyola University Chicago and a co-author of “Suicide in Schools.” He called the downward trend in youth suicides “encouraging, but it is tempered by the fact that we don’t have a good explanation as to why.”
The authors acknowledged that their findings could not account for the influence of social and economic changes, changes in mental health services or public awareness about services.
But they did make comparisons to exclude other possible explanations. The authors looked for similar effects among American adults over 65, who are less likely to use the hotline. In that group, there was a reduction in suicides that exceeded expectations, but it was smaller, at just 4.5 percent.
To ensure the decline in suicides did not reflect a general improvement in young-adult mortality, the researchers tracked cancer deaths, and found there was no change. They also looked at the rates of suicide among young people in England, where no change had been made to the national crisis line in that time period; they found no reduction in youth suicides there.
Hannah Wesolowski, chief advocacy officer for the National Alliance on Mental Illness, said she was persuaded that the hotline had contributed to the improvement in suicide rates, in part because it did not appear among English youths or in older Americans.
“To me, that really helps hone in that this might really be the differentiator,” she said. “We are seeing potentially a pretty significant decline in suicides among young people. For public policy, this is strong evidence to double down on that we are doing.”
Emily Hilliard, a senior press secretary at the Department of Health and Human Services, said H.H.S. and SAMHSA are “committed to ensuring that all Americans have access” the 988 line, which she said “clearly provides lifesaving support, helping millions of people every year.”
If you are having thoughts of suicide, call or text 988 to reach the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline or go to SpeakingOfSuicide.com/resources for a list of additional resources.
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A highly contagious digestive virus is surging across the U.S., experts warn.
Rotavirus, a double-stranded RNA virus, causes acute gastroenteritis — inflammation of the stomach and intestines — which can lead to severe diarrhea, vomiting, fever and stomach pain.
The virus primarily affects infants and young children, but there have also been outbreaks in elderly populations, such as nursing homes.
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Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that in the week ending April 4, out of 2,329 rotavirus tests, 7.3% were positive for the infection. Last year’s highest infection rate was 6.77% as of the week ending April 19.
Rotavirus, a double-stranded RNA virus, causes acute gastroenteritis — inflammation of the stomach and intestines — which can lead to severe diarrhea, vomiting, fever and stomach pain. (iStock)
“We’re seeing a lot of rotavirus in the wastewater right now,” Dr. Marc Siegel, Fox News senior medical analyst, confirmed to Fox News Digital. “Testing for rotavirus is way down, but the percentage of positive tests is up.”
While the virus typically peaks in the spring, it is not currently slowing down, he noted.
Why cases may be rising
Patricia Pinto-Garcia, M.D., a medical editor at GoodRx who is based in California, said there are several possible reasons for the rotavirus spike.
“Vaccine rates are down overall among young children, as they decreased during COVID,” she told Fox News Digital. “This means there’s a growing number of infants and young children who are vulnerable to infection.”
The rotavirus vaccine series must be completed by the time a child is 8 months old, she noted.
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As a result of the declining vaccinations, herd immunity isn’t protecting vulnerable children, according to Pinto-Garcia. “Children who haven’t finished the vaccine series yet, are too young to get vaccinated, or can’t get the vaccine due to medical illness are more likely to get exposed to the illness because other children aren’t vaccinated,” she said.
Siegel noted that before the vaccine became available, rotavirus resulted in 55,000 to 70,000 in the U.S. per year.
“Vaccine rates are down overall among young children, as they decreased during COVID,” a doctor told Fox News Digital. “This means there’s a growing number of infants and young children who are vulnerable to infection.” (iStock)
“I am concerned that the vaccination rate has been declining over the past seven years and is continuing to decline in the current climate of vaccine skepticism,” he said.
Surveillance methods are also much better than they used to be, Pinto-Garcia noted, which means public health experts are able to pick up and track cases better than ever before.
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“But we see that rotavirus-related healthcare visits are also up, so improved detection is not the only reason we are seeing this spike,” she said.
The COVID pandemic also disrupted the pattern of infections, according to Pinto-Garcia, so it’s “tricky” to compare the current levels against older cycles.
“It’s possible that what we are seeing is still some post-pandemic rebound, but it’s unlikely that this year’s pattern is fully explained by just this factor,” she added.
Transmission and risk
Dr. Zachary Hoy, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at Pediatrix Medical Group based in Nashville, Tennessee, often sees young patients with rotavirus.
“Rotavirus is spread via the fecal-oral route, meaning that a person comes into contact with virus droplets from contact with other children or adults, or from contact with objects such as toys that have been contaminated with the virus from someone who is sick,” he told Fox News Digital. “This can lead to outbreaks, especially at schools where many young children share the same toys.”
“It’s possible that what we are seeing is still some post-pandemic rebound, but it’s unlikely that this year’s pattern is fully explained by just this factor.”
Rotavirus is associated with many dehydration cases in the hospital due to the degree of diarrhea, according to Hoy.
In some severe cases, the virus can lead to seizures due to electrolyte imbalances from dehydration and loss of electrolytes in the stool.
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“Younger children do not have the reserves that older children and adults have, so they can become more dehydrated quicker and develop more severe electrolyte imbalances, leading to more severe infections,” Hoy said.
“Patients with problems with their immune systems or on medications that can decrease their immune systems can have more severe and prolonged infections, too.”
Treatment and care
Because rotavirus is a viral infection, antibiotics are not effective against it. There is no specific antiviral treatment for the condition, with doctors typically recommending supportive care.
“The mainstay of treatment is hospitalization for rehydration via intravenous (IV) fluids,” Hoy told Fox News Digital. “Sometimes it can take up to two to three days of IV fluids to help get patients rehydrated.”
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Blood draws are often necessary to evaluate patients’ electrolyte levels, such as sodium, potassium, calcium and magnesium, according to the doctor.
“If these electrolyte levels are significantly low, sometimes patients need special IV solutions or individual electrolyte medications,” he added.
“The mainstay of treatment is hospitalization for rehydration via intravenous (IV) fluids,” a doctor told Fox News Digital. (iStock)
Dr. Daniel Park, medical director of the Pediatric Emergency Department at UNC Health in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, noted that most children recover with supportive care, but parents should seek medical attention if a child shows signs of dehydration. Those include decreased urination, lethargy or inability to keep fluids down.
“While rare, rotavirus can be life-threatening in vulnerable populations, especially very young infants or children with underlying medical conditions,” Park told Fox News Digital.
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Prevention strategies
Given the lack of antiviral medications for rotavirus, doctors emphasize the importance of prevention, primarily the vaccine.
There are two rotavirus vaccines – Rotateq (a three-dose series) and Rotarix (a two-dose series). They are given starting at age 2 months as oral drops, not injections, according to Hoy.
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“It’s important to get the rotavirus vaccines on schedule, because these younger infants are at greatest risk if they get rotavirus,” he advised.
Other recommended prevention methods include handwashing with soap and water.
Every day we’re faced with a zillion small choices: Go to sleep early, or watch one more episode of that Netflix drama. Call an old friend to catch up, or cruise social media. Of course, no single action will guarantee a long, healthy life or doom you to an early grave. But those little daily decisions do add up, and over the long term they can make a difference when it comes to both your longevity and your health span, the amount of life spent in relatively good health.
Scroll through this theoretical “day in the life” and select the option that best fits your typical day. Not every situation will apply perfectly, but think about which choice you’d be most likely to make. This isn’t a formal scientific assessment. The goal here isn’t to assign you a “good” or “bad” score, but to help you understand the central factors that shape the way we age and how long we live.
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