Finance
When making travel plans, timing and financing are major considerations
For the true travel fan, there’s often a built-in conflict on how best to plan for your next adventure.
On the one hand, the world awaits. Spin the globe, cover your eyes and point. Or, throw a dart at the map! Then it’s time to dig in and research your next dream destination.
On the other hand, getting the best bargain can be a last-minute proposition. There may be a fare sale today, but not tomorrow. How does that mash up with your bicycle tour in Italy? Or your friend’s wedding in Hawaii?
Spreading out all the options on the table can be daunting. It’s a bit like taking a sip from the fire hose. And we all have varying degrees of tolerance for changing prices, tiny seats and geopolitical uncertainty.
So let’s take a snapshot of what’s happening now, knowing you won’t likely drink from the same river, or fire hose, twice.
Since most of today’s snapshots are on the phone, there are some handy settings: You can zoom in for a closer look at that fruit and cheese platter, frame it up nicely for a good shot of your seatmate, or look out the window and get a nice view from 30,000 feet.
Fares we love. There are just a few fares to zoom in on right now.
Anchorage-Chicago. Three airlines will offer nonstop flights this summer: Alaska, United and American. Alaska and United fly the route year-round. There are just a couple of months where travelers have to stop in Denver or Seattle on the way. Right now, the Basic price is $349 round-trip. United has the least-expensive Main price of $429 round-trip. Alaska charges more: $449-$469 round-trip.
The rate to Chicago is steady throughout the summer, as long as you’re open to flying on other airlines, including Delta and now Southwest, starting May 15.
Anchorage-Dallas. Choose from four airlines with competitive prices. United and Delta offer great rates starting on March 30, for travel all summer and into the fall for $331 round-trip in basic economy. Remember: Basic economy means you’ll be sitting in the middle seat back by the potty. There are few, if any, advance seat assignments permitted and you’re the last to board. Don’t expect to accrue many frequent flyer points. Alaska will give you 30%. Delta and American offer none. United is axing MileagePlus points for basic travelers soon.
Delta and United offer the chance to pay $100 more for pre-reserved seats and mileage credit. Of course, they may charge you more for a nicer seat on the plane. But that’s another story.
American Airlines charges a little bit more, about $20 more for a round-trip, to fly nonstop. It’s a nice flight.
Anchorage-Albuquerque. Delta is targeting this route with a nice rate: $281 round-trip in Basic or $381 in Main. But it’s just between May 23 and June 29. Why? Well, it lines up nicely with Southwest’s launch on May 15. Who knows why airlines cut their fares during a traditionally busy season? It’s just a hunch.
Looking at airfares more broadly, there are a few more bargain rates out there, but most only go through May 20. Airlines are hoping for a robust summer — so prices go up after that.
For example, between March 29 and May 20, Alaska Air offers a nonstop from Anchorage to Los Angeles for $257 round-trip in basic. For pre-assigned seats and full mileage credit, the main price is $337 round-trip. Prices go up to $437 round-trip in the summer.
The view from 30,000 feet is pretty clear, although past performance is no guarantee of future results. Several carriers, including American, Delta, United, Southwest and Alaska are adding flights for the summer. There will be robust competition, which means lower fares. Just last week, Alaska Air dropped the price from Anchorage to Seattle to $210 round-trip. That rate is gone, but others will come along.
Charge it. Banks own the airlines by virtue of their popular credit cards. Do they own you, too?
Sifting through the various credit card offers and bonus points emails, it’s easy to forget that banks, not travelers, are the airlines’ biggest customers. At a Bank of America conference last year, Alaska Airlines reported it receives about 15% of its total revenue from its loyalty plan. That adds up to more than 1.7 billion in 2024. Delta has a similar deal with American Express, which paid the airline about $8.2 billion last year.
Think about that the next time the flight attendants are handing out credit card applications in the aisle.
Zooming in, if you’re going to play the Atmos loyalty game on Alaska Airlines, you have to have an Alaska Airlines credit card from Bank of America.
I carry the plain-old Alaska Air card. I used to have two of them, primarily for the $99 companion fare. That’s still a compelling offer. But to get that benefit, you have to charge it on an Alaska Airlines Visa card.
So the question is: Is it worth it to pay $395 per year for the new Summit Visa card from Bank of America?
If you use your credit card for your business or if you regularly charge thousands of dollars every month, the Summit card may be the card for you.
One of the foundational benefits is for every $2 you charge, you earn one status point toward your next elite tier, such as titanium. It’s possible to charge your way to the top tier of the frequent flyer ladder without ever stepping on a plane. If that’s your level of charge-card use, then the Summit is for you. For the lesser Ascent card like mine, you earn one status point for every $3 spent.
For a little wider view, consider that your other travel costs, including accommodations, can hit your budget a lot harder than an airline ticket. It’s one reason I carry a flexible spend credit card in addition to my Alaska Airlines card. Here’s a snapshot of some popular options:
1. Bilt Rewards. I finally signed up for a Bilt account, although I haven’t yet received my card. There are two big benefits with Bilt: You can charge your rent and transfer points to Alaska Airlines. There also is a scheme to charge your mortgage, but it’s more convoluted. But the charge-your-rent option is a stand-alone gold star for the Bilt program, even if you don’t fly Alaska Airlines.
In addition to the link with Alaska Airlines, Bilt points transfer to other oneworld carriers like British, Japan Airlines and Qatar Air. Hotel partners include Hyatt, my favorite, and Hilton. A big bonus comes with the “Obsidian” card, $95 per year: three points for every dollar spent on groceries.
But there’s also a Bilt card with no annual fee. And there are no extra fees incurred when you charge your rent.
2. American Express. If you fly on Delta, the American Express card is a natural choice.
The two companies really are joined at the hip. The last American Express card I had was a Delta “Gold” card, which included a 70,000-point signup bonus. Cardholders get a free checked bag, although Delta offers two free checked bags for SkyMiles members who live in Alaska, and 15% off award tickets.
The Delta card is free for the first year, then $150 per year thereafter.
There is a dizzying array of American Express cards available, including some with no annual fee. But with Delta there is a narrowed-down selection, including one that’s more than $800 per year. That includes lounge access and some other benefits, including a companion pass.
American Express cardholders also can transfer their points to Hilton and Bonvoy as well as to 15 other airlines.
Capital One offers the Venture X card, which offers cardholders 75,000 points plus a $300 travel credit at their in-house travel service. The cost is $395 per year. Get the slimmed-down Venture card for just $95 per year. You still can earn the 75,000 bonus points after spending $4,000 in the first three months. Plus, there’s a $250 credit with Capital One Travel.
Airline partners include EMirates, Singapore Air, Japan Air and EVA Air, from Taiwan. Hotel partners include Hilton and Marriott.
I’ve carried several Chase cards for years. Right now I have the Chase Sapphire Preferred card, for which I received 80,000 bonus points. But that was several years ago. More recently, I got the Chase-affiliated Ink Business Cash card to harvest a 90,000 point bonus. Previously, I carried the Chase Sapphire Reserve. I got a 100,000 point bonus for that. But I dropped that card when the fee went up to $795 per year.
Stacking the cards like that — getting more than one — has helped me to get more bonus points, both for American Express and for Chase.
The best value for Chase points that I’ve found is for Hyatt Hotels. Right now, it’s the best redemption ration, but that can change. Chase also allows for transfers to Emirates, United, Singapore Air and Southwest, among others. The Chase travel portal is managed by Expedia, so you can redeem points for other hotels at a lower redemption rate.
The long view: All airline mileage plans are now credit card loyalty plans. Terms and conditions change, along with signup bonuses and other features of the cards. Last year, Chase dropped its airport restaurant feature, which offered $29 per person at select restaurants in Los Angeles, Seattle and Portland. A couple of years ago, the Priority Pass affiliated with Chase dropped the Alaska Airlines lounges as a partner.
It takes some time and effort to keep up with the programs and get the best value. But airline credit card plans are here to stay, even if the frequent-flyer programs are watered down year after year.
It doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense, does it? Someone decides to go to war, the oil stops flowing, prices go up and our economy starts shutting down.
The best response we can come up with is to raise interest rates, to dampen demand a little more. As if doubling the price of petrol won’t do that enough.
Problem is, raising interest rates only hurts people with mortgages and renters, typically not high on the wealth ladder. People with no debt get more money, and will spend it. And the rising interest rates hurt the businesses that have already been hit. Just when we want to raise supply.
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Besides interest rates, standard macroeconomic thinking is there’s only one other lever. We could reduce net government spending, which is hard to do when you’ve just cut taxes on diesel and petrol, which will fuel demand just when you don’t want that to happen.
But there may be a third way. To our collective credit, Australia has set up what many regard as the world’s best superannuation system. As at December 2025, we had close to $4.5 trillion set aside for our futures. And, every hour of every day, 12% of our income is added to the pile.
It’s been suggested that the super guarantee levy might be used as the third ‘lever’ to modulate the economy, in addition to fiscal and monetary policy.
This was actually one of the arguments used when the levy was introduced back in 1992. Instead of giving workers a wage rise, which might trigger wage-inflation, Bill Kelty and Paul Keating negotiated a compulsory savings scheme. Workers would benefit, but not immediately.
Perhaps it’s worth revisiting that negotiation. Say you want to set the levy at 12% over the long term. When times are tough you might put the 12% rate down a little to stimulate the economy. Instead of a $100 wage and $12 in super, people get $102 for now and $10 for later. We get through.
Or, when inflation is running you might nudge the 12% up a little to constrain demand. The extra isn’t paid by business. Instead of the $100 wage and $12 in super, people get $98 for now and $14 for later. Given the cost of living crisis, maybe the lever only cuts in above a certain income.
This would arguably be fairer, easier and more effective than the interest rate sledgehammer. It would inject or remove the same amount of money from the economy. But the pain is spread, people keep their own money rather than paying it to the banks, and businesses aren’t hit by higher interest rates just when you want them to invest in their capacity.
Finance
Stress in private credit could spark ‘psychological contagion,’ Fed’s Barr tells Bloomberg News
May 3 (Reuters) – U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said stress in private credit could spark “psychological contagion” leading to a broader credit crunch, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday.
While direct links between banks and private credit do not yet appear “super worrisome,” there were other areas of concern such as the insurance sector’s overlaps with private lenders, Barr said in an interview with Bloomberg News.
“People might look at private credit, and instead of saying, ‘This is an idiosyncratic problem, these were high-risk loans, the rest of the corporate sector is different,’ they might say, ‘Wow, there seem to be cracks in our corporate sector. Maybe over here in the corporate bond market, there are also cracks,’” Barr said.
Barr also added that “then you could have a credit pullback, and that could lead to more financial strain.”
Private credit firms have been under stress because of the market’s recent downturn with some investors retreating from these investments due to worries about valuations and lending standards following a handful of high-profile bankruptcies.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in March central bank officials are watching developments in the private credit sector for signs of trouble, but do not currently see issues there bringing down the financial system as a whole.
(Reporting by Angela Christy in Bengaluru; Editing by Will Dunham)
A repeat of the Reserve Bank board’s split decision to raise interest rates in March could be on the cards as the central bank frets over the dual threats of high inflation and a stalling economy.
Financial markets and most economists are tipping a third straight rate hike on Tuesday.
ANZ Bank head of Australian economics Adam Boyton is part of the chorus predicting the Reserve Bank will lift the official cash rate to 4.35 per cent – the same level as its post-COVID-19 pandemic peak.
But he thinks it won’t be a lay down misere, with several members likely to vote in favour of keeping rates on hold.
The combination of a tight labour market, above-target underlying inflation and concerns inflation expectations could become unanchored all point in favour of a hike.
At the same time, the US-Israeli war with Iran’s effects on the economy could convince some board members more time is needed to weigh the impact on economic growth.
In March, four of the board’s nine members voted unsuccessfully to keep rates on hold, arguing there was too much uncertainty around the domestic growth outlook and how the conflict in the Middle East would evolve.
Uncertainty around the path forward would be reflected in the bank’s post-meeting communications, Mr Boyton said, with no forward guidance expected.
“We expect, however, a tilt in the language in the post-meeting statement that will open the door to an extended pause,” he said.
Financial markets put the chance of a hike on Tuesday at about three-quarters and have fully priced in at least one more rate rise by November.
Westpac forecasts another two hikes after May, in June and August.
But economists at ANZ, NAB, Commonwealth Bank, Deutsche Bank and HSBC think the Reserve Bank will stand pat after Tuesday.
“Whether the RBA delivers further tightening beyond May will depend on how quickly the economy weakens,” HSBC’s local chief economist Paul Bloxham said.
“We see a recent sharp weakening in sentiment as a clear signal that a downturn is already under way.
“Our central case is that, beyond the May hike, the RBA remains on hold.”
Updated economic forecasts by Reserve Bank staff, released simultaneously to the monetary policy decision, will be closely scrutinised for hints about the path forward for rates.
Earlier on Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release household spending figures for March.
Economists predict a rise of 1.5 per cent, driven by higher fuel spending.
Building approvals figures for March will be published on Monday.
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