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What to do after a week of stock turmoil? Strategists say do nothing: Morning Brief

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What to do after a week of stock turmoil? Strategists say do nothing: Morning Brief

This is The Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

With volatility roaring back this week, you’ve probably seen the warnings against checking your 401(k). The exhortations to buy the dip in stocks. The urging to rebalance your portfolio. The calls that a recession is more likely.

In short, a week like this can be scary and confusing.

Enter Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, with a zen-like suggestion: “Breathe.”

When confronted with a sell-off, investors have three options: buy, sell, or hold. Of course, these are always the options. But it’s worth a reminder that when there’s turbulence, doing nothing is always a choice.

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There are plenty of pundits who are echoing that calming tone.

“To date, asset market fluctuations have remained within normal historical ranges and, in our view, do not signal cause for alarm,” wrote Michael Gapen, head of US economics at BofA Global Research, in a note to investors. Julian Emanuel of Evercore ISI told clients that stocks are still in a bull market. And Charles Schwab senior investment strategist Kevin Gordon explained to Yahoo Finance why he doesn’t see recent employment indicators as recessionary.

Early in the week, Goldman Sachs’ strategy team, led by David Kostin, said they were sticking with their call for the S&P 500 to reach 5,600 this year. They pointed out in a note to clients that sales and earnings estimates for 2024 and 2025 haven’t changed and that the S&P 500 typically rebounds after a 5% pullback.

Of course, not everyone is saying “ohm.” David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research told Yahoo Finance that he still sees the US economy heading for a recession. For now, that seems the minority view, even as JPMorgan economists raised their forecast for the probability of a contraction to 35% by the end of the year from 25%.

Meanwhile, Sosnick said he’s been getting a lot of calls from non-financial industry friends asking, “What do I do?” His answer: “Nothing.”

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There is one caveat, he said: If Monday’s sell-off in particular “freaks you out, you’re carrying too much risk. If you got margin calls or something, you may want to be taking a bit less risk.”

Julie Hyman is the co-anchor of Yahoo Finance Live, weekdays 9 a.m.-11 a.m. ET. Follow her on X @juleshyman, and read her other stories.

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Equities are using labor data ‘as an excuse,’ strategist says

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Equities are using labor data ‘as an excuse,’ strategist says

Stocks closed Friday’s session lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) both shedding over 1.6% following the better-than-expected December jobs report. Wall Street experts are looking at the fresh employment data as a cause for the Federal Reserve to slow its interest rate cuts originally planned for 2025.

Glenmede Chief of Investment Strategy and Research Jason Pride shares his thoughts with Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton on the report, calling it “pretty decent” and believes the market could be using the labor print “as an excuse.”

“And to have some excuses for taking a breather is reasonable. That the market’s pointing to this one. I don’t know that this is really the long-term story here,” Pride explains. “In fact, quite often, we believe that markets with interest rates, with inflation expectations, they quite often take the most recent data points and actually extrapolate them a little bit too far.”

Pride also emphasizes the importance of broadening out and rebalancing one’s portfolio in order to explore more of the opportunities — from small-cap stocks (^RUT) to fixed-income (^TYX, ^TNX, ^FVX) — 2025 has to offer.

“Take your eyes a little bit off of the big [Magnficient] Seven or [the] big cap growth stocks that everybody is so focused on. Take your eyes a little bit off of that and recognize there is an entire investment universe to own,” Pride says.

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To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here.

This post was written by Josh Lynch

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US labor market finishes 2024 on high note, adding 256,000 jobs in December as unemployment falls to 4.1%

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US labor market finishes 2024 on high note, adding 256,000 jobs in December as unemployment falls to 4.1%

The US economy added more jobs than forecast in December while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed 256,000 new jobs were created in December, far more than the 165,000 expected by economists and higher than the 212,000 seen in November. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in November. December marked the most monthly job gains seen since March 2023.

Revisions to the unemployment rate in 2024 also showed the labor market was stronger than initially thought. The cycle high for the unemployment rate had initially been 4.3% in July but that figure was revised down to 4.2% in Friday’s release.

“There is no denying that this is a strong report,” Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons wrote in a note to clients on Friday.

Wage growth, an important measure for gauging inflation pressures, rose 0.3% in December, in line with economists’ expectations and below the 0.4% seen in November.

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Compared to the prior year, wages rose 3.9% in December, below the 4% seen in November. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate was flat at 62.5%.

The strong picture of the US labor market presented in Friday’s report pushed out investor bets on when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next. Traders now see a less than 50% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates until June, per the CME Fed Watch Tool. A day prior, investors had favored a cut in May.

Read more: How the Fed rate cut affects your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments

“You’re seeing this steady but slightly cooling labor market trend, which is very encouraging from a Fed perspective,” EY chief economist Gregory Daco told Yahoo Finance. “I think the attention will actually pivot back towards inflation developments over the course of the next three months.”

Stocks sank following the report, with futures tied to all three major averages down nearly 1%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX), a recent headwind for stocks, added about 8 basis points to reach 4.78%, its highest level since November 2023.

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“The problem here now is if you’re looking for rate cuts based on a weakening labor market..stop looking for those,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told Yahoo Finance. “It’s not going to happen in the immediate term.”

A general view as fans hold up national flags in support of Team United States during the evening Swimming session on day eight of the Olympic Games Paris 2024 at Paris La Defense Arena on Aug. 3, 2024, in Nanterre, France. (Quinn Rooney/Getty Images) · Quinn Rooney via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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SBA Offers Financial Relief to Los Angeles County Businesses and Residents Impacted by Devastating Wildfires

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SBA Offers Financial Relief to Los Angeles County Businesses and Residents Impacted by Devastating Wildfires

Administrator Guzman to Travel to Southern California to Assess Needs

WASHINGTON, Jan. 09, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Today, SBA Administrator Isabel Casillas Guzman announced that low-interest federal disaster loans are now available to Southern California businesses, homeowners, renters and private nonprofit (PNP) organizations following President Joe Biden’s major disaster declaration. The declaration covers Los Angeles and the contiguous counties of Kern, Orange, San Bernardino, and Ventura due to wildfires and straight-line winds that began Jan. 7, 2025.

Administrator Guzman also will join FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell in Southern California this week to assess on-the-ground needs and ensure the SBA is fully prepared to assist businesses, homeowners, and renters impacted by this disaster.

“As heroic firefighters and first responders continue to battle the devastating wildfires sweeping across Southern California, the federal government is surging resources to ensure that Angelenos are prepared to recover and rebuild from this catastrophe,” said SBA Administrator Guzman. “In response to President Biden’s major disaster declaration, the SBA is mobilizing to provide financial relief to impacted businesses and residents. Our continued prayers are with the brave individuals working to put out these fires as well as all those who have lost loved ones, their homes, and their businesses to this disaster. We stand ready to support our fellow Americans for as long as it takes.”

Loans are available to businesses of all sizes and PNP organizations to repair or replace damaged or destroyed real estate, machinery, equipment, inventory, and other business assets. The SBA also offers Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDLs) to small businesses, small agricultural cooperatives, small businesses engaged in aquaculture, and most PNP organizations to help meet working capital needs caused by the disaster, even if there is no physical damage. EIDLs may be used to pay fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable, and other expenses that would have been met if not for the disaster. Businesses can apply for loans of up to $2 million.

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Disaster loans of up to $500,000 are available to homeowners to repair or replace damaged or destroyed real estate. Homeowners and renters also are eligible for up to $100,000 to repair or replace damaged or destroyed personal property, including personal vehicles.

Interest rates can be as low as 4% for businesses, 3.625% for PNP organizations, and 2.563% for homeowners and renters, with terms up to 30 years. Loan amounts and terms are set by the SBA and based on each applicant’s financial condition. Interest does not begin to accrue until 12 months from the date of the first disaster loan disbursement and loan repayment can be deferred 12 months from the date of the first disbursement.

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