Finance
What to do after a week of stock turmoil? Strategists say do nothing: Morning Brief
This is The Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:
With volatility roaring back this week, you’ve probably seen the warnings against checking your 401(k). The exhortations to buy the dip in stocks. The urging to rebalance your portfolio. The calls that a recession is more likely.
In short, a week like this can be scary and confusing.
Enter Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, with a zen-like suggestion: “Breathe.”
When confronted with a sell-off, investors have three options: buy, sell, or hold. Of course, these are always the options. But it’s worth a reminder that when there’s turbulence, doing nothing is always a choice.
There are plenty of pundits who are echoing that calming tone.
“To date, asset market fluctuations have remained within normal historical ranges and, in our view, do not signal cause for alarm,” wrote Michael Gapen, head of US economics at BofA Global Research, in a note to investors. Julian Emanuel of Evercore ISI told clients that stocks are still in a bull market. And Charles Schwab senior investment strategist Kevin Gordon explained to Yahoo Finance why he doesn’t see recent employment indicators as recessionary.
Early in the week, Goldman Sachs’ strategy team, led by David Kostin, said they were sticking with their call for the S&P 500 to reach 5,600 this year. They pointed out in a note to clients that sales and earnings estimates for 2024 and 2025 haven’t changed and that the S&P 500 typically rebounds after a 5% pullback.
Of course, not everyone is saying “ohm.” David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research told Yahoo Finance that he still sees the US economy heading for a recession. For now, that seems the minority view, even as JPMorgan economists raised their forecast for the probability of a contraction to 35% by the end of the year from 25%.
Meanwhile, Sosnick said he’s been getting a lot of calls from non-financial industry friends asking, “What do I do?” His answer: “Nothing.”
There is one caveat, he said: If Monday’s sell-off in particular “freaks you out, you’re carrying too much risk. If you got margin calls or something, you may want to be taking a bit less risk.”
Julie Hyman is the co-anchor of Yahoo Finance Live, weekdays 9 a.m.-11 a.m. ET. Follow her on X @juleshyman, and read her other stories.
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Finance
How “impact accounting” can integrate sustainability with finance
Around three years ago, Charles Giancarlo, CEO of data platform Pure Storage, came back from Davos and asked his sustainability team to look into an idea he’d encountered at the meeting: Impact accounting, a method for integrating emissions and other externalities into company balance sheets.
The idea had been slowly picking up adherents in Europe for around a decade, but Pure Storage, which rebranded this month to Everpure, would go on to become the first U.S. company to join the Value Balancing Alliance (VBA), a group of 30 or so companies developing the approach. Trellis checked in last week with Everpure and the VBA for an update.
How does impact accounting work?
At the heart of the approach are a set of “valuation factors,” developed by third-party experts, that are used to convert activity data for emissions, water use, air pollution and other externalities into dollar figures that can be integrated into balance sheets. In the case of emissions, for example, the VBA uses $220 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent, a figure based on the estimated social impact of rising greenhouse gases levels.
At Everpure, one long-term goal is to have cost centers be aware of the dollar impact of relevant externalities. After an initial focus on identifying and collecting the most material data, the team is now rolling out a dashboard containing several years of impact accounting numbers.
“It’s catered to different personas,” explained Adrienne Uphoff, Everpure’s ESG regulations and impact accounting manager. Finance was an initial use case, with product managers also on the roadmap. “You can compare it to financial numbers to really understand the impact intensity.”
What value does the approach bring?
“The essence of impact accounting is that you’re translating all these different metrics in the sustainability space into the language the decision makers understand,” said Christian Heller, the VBA’s CEO. “Everyone understands what you’re talking about, and you get a sense of the magnitude of your impact and the risks and opportunities.”
This has allowed Everpure to calculate what Uphoff called the “environmental costs of goods sold” and to estimate the impact of circular strategies, such as refurbishing hardware. The analysis reveals “impact savings across the full value chain across five different environmental topics all in a single dollar unit,” she said.
Analyses like that can then be shared with customers and used to distinguish Everpure from competitors. “The long-term winners in this space are going to be those that can perform against sustainability goals,” said Kathy Mulvany, Everpure’s global head of sustainability. “Impact accounting gives us a way to bring comparability, so companies can understand how they’re truly stacking up.”
What does it take to implement impact accounting?
A great deal of technical work goes into creating valuation factors, but the system is designed so that outside experts create the numbers and hand them to sustainability professionals for use. Still, not every company will have the in-house environmental data that is also needed. Many companies have been collecting emissions data for five years or more, for example, but detailed datasets for water use are less common.
Internal teams also need to be familiar with the concepts. “One of the key learnings from our impact accounting implementation is that the socialization curve is longer than you expect,” said Uphoff. “Attaching monetary values on externalities introduces new metrics and mental models, and that can naturally make people a little nervous at first. It takes time and dialogue for teams to build confidence in how to interpret this new lens on performance.”
What’s next?
In the early days of impact accounting, companies and consultancies worked independently on different methodologies. Now that work is coalescing, said Heller. The International Standards Organization will start work on a standard this summer, he added, and the VBA is having conversations with the IFRS Foundation, which creates international financial reporting standards.
The approach may also be integrated into mandatory disclosure standards. Heller noted that the European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive mentions the potential benefits of companies putting a dollar figure on some environmental impacts. “It’s the next evolutionary step of any kind of sustainability disclosure regulations,” he said.
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Finance
2 Aspira charter high schools to close by April due to financial issues
Chicago Public Schools is shutting down two Aspira charter high schools by the middle of the year, following financial issues over the past year.
School leaders are calling the move “unprecedented.”
Students at the Aspira Business and Finance High School at 2989 N. Milwaukee Ave. in Avondale held a walkout right outside of Aspira after the CEO said they only have enough money to stay open for the next four to five weeks.
Students wanted their questions answered as to why they’re being transferred to other schools.
Angelina Mota is a senior at the high school and said she is concerned about her future.
“It’s very difficult, especially for us, hearing that credits might not go all the way with us. That our graduation might just be taken back. It’s very disappointing,” she said.
This is the first time a CPS school will close before the end of the school year. Both Aspira and CPS said the charter network won’t have the funds to stay open past April.
“The burden on our seniors has got to be… they don’t give a damn about the kids. The seniors,” Aspira of Illinois CEO Edgar Lopez said while fighting back his emotions.
The school is facing a $2.9 million deficit, impacting 540 students and dozens of staff.
CPS said they have already given more than $2.5 million to the charter school to help sustain operations. They said under Illinois law, it reached the legal limit of funding it can provide.
This has been a year-long effort in compliance with state charter school law.
In a statement, CPS said, “Aspira has not submitted required documentation, including evidence of funding to support operations through this school year.”
The documents CPS said are overdue include the school’s fiscal year 25 financial audit, general ledger, and payroll.
“We’re not hiding nothing. The financial documents that they were asking for, Jose told them, we’ll have them to you by Friday. Then they send a letter by Thursday. They didn’t even give us a chance,” Lopez said.
CPS said they’re initiating this due to the lack of financial transparency and solvency.
“We know we don’t want to go anywhere else because we’re used to the routine we have here,” said student Arichely Molina.
“Please let us (stay) open. at least until we graduate,” Mota said.
CPS said their main goal is to ensure the kids have a safety net as they transition to another school.
The second school is located at 3986 W. Barry Ave., also in the Avondale neighborhood.
Finance
Why has the UAE closed its stock exchanges?
The United Arab Emirates has closed its main stock exchanges amid a widening conflict in the region following the United States and Israel’s attacks on Iran.
The UAE’s financial regulator on Sunday announced that its key exchanges in Dubai and Abu Dhabi would not immediately reopen after the weekend break amid the fallout of the US-Israeli attacks that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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The announcement that the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market would remain closed on Monday and Tuesday came after the UAE was hit with hundreds of Iranian missile and drone attacks, including a strike on Abu Dhabi’s main airport that killed one person and wounded seven others.
The UAE’s Capital Markets Authority said in a statement that it would continue to monitor developments in the region and “assess the situation on an ongoing basis, taking any further measures as necessary”.
Here is all you need to know about the move.
Why has the UAE decided to shut its main stock exchanges?
The financial regulator did not elaborate on the rationale for its decision, only saying that it was taken in accordance with its “supervisory and regulatory role” in managing the country’s financial markets.
While closing the stock market outside of scheduled breaks is relatively unusual worldwide, especially in the era of electronic trading, it is not unprecedented.
Typically, when financial authorities halt stock trading during a crisis, it is because they are concerned about panic selling.
During periods of extreme volatility, such as wars and financial crises, investors often rush to sell their holdings to avoid suffering big losses.
As investors sell their stocks, the market value falls further.
This dynamic can spur a vicious cycle that, left unchecked, can lead to a full-blown market crash.
Since the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, stock markets around the world have seen significant – though not catastrophic – losses, while oil prices have risen sharply.
Saudi Arabia’s benchmark Tadawul All Share Index fell more than 4 percent on Sunday, while Egypt’s EGX 30 dropped about 2.5 percent.
In Asia, major stock markets closed lower on Monday, with Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down about 1.4 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.
The practice of shutting the market to prevent panic selling is controversial among economists and investors.
Closing the market prevents investors from accessing cash they might need in a hurry.
Critics also argue that such closures only exacerbate the sense of panic they seek to prevent and distort important signals about the market.
“Investors don’t like uncertainty, and at times of market stress, liquidity is most important. It appears the UAE just took that away,” Burdin Hickok, a professor at New York University’s School of Professional Studies, told Al Jazeera.
“This move has the potential of diminishing the status of Dubai as a true major market and weaken investor confidence in the Dubai markets. There has to be some concern about capital flight and negative ripple effects.”
Has this happened before?
The UAE has closed its stock exchanges before, though not due to regional conflict.
In 2022, the UAE halted trading as part of a period of mourning declared to mark the death of President Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
The emirate announced a similar pause following the death of Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashid Al Maktoum, in 2006.
“Historically, to the best of my knowledge, no Middle Eastern state, including Israel, has closed its stock exchange during a time of regional conflict,” Hickok said.
“In prior conflicts, Israel has modified hours of their exchange, but we are talking hours, not days.”
Other countries have shuttered their stock markets during periods of major turmoil in recent years.
After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, authorities shut the Moscow Exchange for nearly a month.
In 2011, Egypt shut its stock exchange for nearly two months as the country was grappling with the upheaval of the Arab Spring.
After the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq halted trading for six days, the longest suspension since the Great Depression.
How important is the UAE’s stock market?
The UAE is a relatively small player in the world of capital markets, though it has made significant inroads in recent years.
The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market have a combined market capitalisation of about $1.1 trillion.
By comparison, the New York Stock Exchange, the world’s biggest bourse, has a market capitalisation of about $44 trillion.
Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Exchange, the biggest exchange in the Middle East, is valued at more than $3 trillion.
Still, the UAE’s stature among financial markets has been on the rise.
Before the latest crisis, UAE-listed stocks had been on a winning streak.
The Dubai Financial Market General Index, which includes companies such as Emirates NBD and Emaar Properties, rose more than 29 percent in the 12 months to February 27.
Haytham Aoun, an assistant professor of finance at the American University in Dubai, said while the UAE could see some outflow of foreign capital, the country’s economy remains on a strong footing.
“A temporary stock market closure will have a limited impact on long-term economic variables, provided the fundamentals remain strong,” Aoun told Al Jazeera.
“In the UAE case, it’s a precautionary intervention, and not a sign of structural weakness.”
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