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What to do after a week of stock turmoil? Strategists say do nothing: Morning Brief

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What to do after a week of stock turmoil? Strategists say do nothing: Morning Brief

This is The Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

With volatility roaring back this week, you’ve probably seen the warnings against checking your 401(k). The exhortations to buy the dip in stocks. The urging to rebalance your portfolio. The calls that a recession is more likely.

In short, a week like this can be scary and confusing.

Enter Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, with a zen-like suggestion: “Breathe.”

When confronted with a sell-off, investors have three options: buy, sell, or hold. Of course, these are always the options. But it’s worth a reminder that when there’s turbulence, doing nothing is always a choice.

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There are plenty of pundits who are echoing that calming tone.

“To date, asset market fluctuations have remained within normal historical ranges and, in our view, do not signal cause for alarm,” wrote Michael Gapen, head of US economics at BofA Global Research, in a note to investors. Julian Emanuel of Evercore ISI told clients that stocks are still in a bull market. And Charles Schwab senior investment strategist Kevin Gordon explained to Yahoo Finance why he doesn’t see recent employment indicators as recessionary.

Early in the week, Goldman Sachs’ strategy team, led by David Kostin, said they were sticking with their call for the S&P 500 to reach 5,600 this year. They pointed out in a note to clients that sales and earnings estimates for 2024 and 2025 haven’t changed and that the S&P 500 typically rebounds after a 5% pullback.

Of course, not everyone is saying “ohm.” David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research told Yahoo Finance that he still sees the US economy heading for a recession. For now, that seems the minority view, even as JPMorgan economists raised their forecast for the probability of a contraction to 35% by the end of the year from 25%.

Meanwhile, Sosnick said he’s been getting a lot of calls from non-financial industry friends asking, “What do I do?” His answer: “Nothing.”

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There is one caveat, he said: If Monday’s sell-off in particular “freaks you out, you’re carrying too much risk. If you got margin calls or something, you may want to be taking a bit less risk.”

Julie Hyman is the co-anchor of Yahoo Finance Live, weekdays 9 a.m.-11 a.m. ET. Follow her on X @juleshyman, and read her other stories.

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Andre Smith, finance manager, running for 6th District school board seat

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Andre Smith, finance manager, running for 6th District school board seat

Andre Smith, a finance manager and founder of a violence prevention nonprofit, is running for the 6th District school board seat to promote equal opportunity education and overhaul Chicago Public Schools’ annual budget.

“Every child in Chicago deserves the same opportunities. Every parent deserves their children to have the best education that we as board members can provide for them,” Smith said.

The great-grandson of Caroline Williams, a West Virginia teacher who won a landmark civil rights case 1898 that mandated equal pay for teachers regardless of race, Smith said he believes this familial legacy of advocating for educational equality makes him a strong candidate for the seat.

“She stood up to make sure that colored school teachers had equal rights and equal pay,” Smith said. “Here we are in 2024, when Chicago is having, for the first time in history, an elected school board, and we’re making history again as her great-grandson is running.”

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He also said his varied leadership experience sets him apart in the race. Smith has been a vice chair of the Washington Park Resident Advisory Council, is the founder of the group Chicago Against Violence, and has been a beat facilitator for the Chicago Police Department’s Beat 311. 

“My opponents, they have no history of doing those things,” Smith claimed. “They have no history of being on the ground level, they have no history of fighting for the people.”

In the 6th District, which stretches from Old Town and Streeterville to Washington Park, Englewood and parts of Hyde Park, Smith is running against Jessica Biggs, a former CPS principal and community organizer, and Anusha Thotakura, a former teacher and leader of a progressive political organization. 

Perhaps one of the biggest differences between Smith and his competitors is funding: Smith is the only candidate in the 6th District who has taken donations from the political funds of the Illinois Network of Charter Schools (INCS). Smith has received about $6,000 from the organization so far out of nearly $3 million that two of that organization’s political arms have amassed to back candidates in Chicago’s first-ever school board races.

The District 6 race is for one of 10 elected seats on the new 21-member Chicago Board of Education, with the remaining spots to be appointed by Mayor Brandon Johnson. Each of the 10 seats represents a district in the city mapped out by the Illinois General Assembly this past spring. 

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In all, Smith has raised about $24,600 since January – though some of this may be used for his ongoing and concurrent run for the Illinois  House of Representatives –, compared to Thotakura’s $32,700 and Biggs’ $6,700, according to campaign filings. 

“The donation from (INCS) is just like a donation from anyone else, like the (Chicago Teachers Union) or any other business or any other person – there are no strings attached and there are no obligations,” Smith said. “They like what I believe in, that parents need to have a choice in their children’s education and they figure that I’m the best candidate.”

If elected, Smith said his first order of business would be to conduct an independent audit of CPS’ budget to “investigate” its $400 million budget deficit this year and to reallocate money to “better-fit community needs.”

This summer, CPS announced it was laying off almost 700 support staff and implementing a hiring freeze on 200 positions, in a move to help close that deficit. This year’s $9.9 billion budget was passed in July.

“We keep creating ideas, raising taxes, putting the burden on the taxpayers and the parents, that’s unfair,” Smith said. “People deserve board members that are really going to be careful about spending their money and spending their money on the right ideas and what’s working.”

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Smith would also like to conduct a listening tour with principals, teachers, parents and students throughout the 6th District to get a sense of its educational needs.

“I want to sit down with the principal and know what’s working and what’s not working. What are the issues that you’re faced with? Is it more funding? If it’s more funding, funding for what?” Smith said. “When I’m on the school board, I know what I’m fighting with, because I’m equipped with my district.”

Smith was most recently a finance manager at Kingdom Chevrolet, but he’s taking a leave of absence to focus on his campaign. He grew up in Bronzeville’s Robert Taylor Homes and attended DuSable High School. Throughout his adult life he’s worked in a variety of industries and roles, among them welding and railroad construction, as well as a barber and minister.

An advocate for improving public safety on the South Side, Smith said he regularly collaborates with local police, community organizations and residents in his role with Chicago Against Violence in an effort to bolster resources for ex-offenders and youth.

A big part of the organization is youth mentorship, through a mix of group programs and one-on-one meetings, which aims to “combat the rise in violent crimes and vehicular carjackings,” reads a description on his campaign flier. (Smith does not have a live campaign site as of press time.) He thinks this experience would be useful in developing safety plans to prevent wt violence at CPS.

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“Our schools should be equipped to teach, educate and get our children the best education that they can ever get, not have to worry about any type of violence happening outside of the school, in the school or around the school,” Smith said.

Smith has been vying for local office for some time: he unsuccessfully ran for 20th Ward alderman in 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2022; for a seat in the Illinois House of Representatives in 2016; and for Cook County’s Board of Commissioners in 2022.

He attributed his failure in previous campaigns to a lack of funding and resources to facilitate outreach, but is feeling confident about his chances going into the Nov. 5 election.

“I want the Chicago education system to be the best in the world. So we got to have the best

teachers that are being paid with a great salary and benefits, ” Smith said. “We want people from other cities to want to come to Chicago to be taught, but before we do any of that, you’ve got to know where your money’s at.”

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Minnesota school district’s finances under scrutiny ahead of referendum

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Minnesota school district’s finances under scrutiny ahead of referendum

Neubeck said the district first learned of issues with the 2023-24 budget around the time it was preparing the budget for this school year. Ashley Bocchi, who was hired as financial director at the beginning of 2024 and has since departed, found that the previous director, Todd Lechtenberg, had miscalculated an increase in staff wages, leading to a budget deficit.

The increase stemmed from budget negotiations the year before that resulted in a 5% bump in wages. The models used by the district and presented to the school board, however, inadvertently showed a 1.5% increase.

The district said that during the transition from Lechtenberg to Bocchi, an outside financial adviser also found bank reconciliations that had not been completed, low cash reserves and an $800,000 credit line that had been run up.

Lechtenberg, who was contracted part-time as financial director for Byron, left the district in early 2024 to join Austin Public Schools. He did not respond to a request for comment.

Byron School Board Chair Duane Quam III declined a request for comment.

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“In hindsight, more could have been done,” Neubeck said. “But I will tell you that when you hire people with that expertise, then you would expect that they would follow through on that expertise — that’s what you pay for.”

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Where to move your money when interest rates are poised to fall

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Where to move your money when interest rates are poised to fall

With the Fed poised to cut interest rates next week, the ripple effect will show up in certificates of deposit and high-yield savings accounts, which currently offer rates of more than 5%.

They aren’t likely to fall dramatically following a rate cut but rather ease back closer to 4% and linger above the inflation rate for at least the next year. So these accounts should still be your go-to for your emergency fund or cash set aside for short-term expenses.

That said, the Fed’s anticipated action offers an opportunity to make some money moves that take advantage of the downward tilt in interest rates.

“The projected cutting may pull the rug from under the high-yield savings rates,” Preston D. Cherry, founder and president of Concurrent Financial Planning, told Yahoo Finance. “Now might be the best time we’ve seen in a few years to swap cash in high-yield savings for long-term bonds to lock in a higher yield for income payments for lifestyle and retirement portfolios.”

Since 2022, when the Fed began to raise short-term interest rates, bank savings accounts have been a better place to park your cash than bonds. That’s set to change.

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Read more: What the Fed rate decision means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards

It’s a good time to shift to bonds for those nearing retirement who are looking to rebalance their retirement savings amid stock market volatility.

The best way to earn a high total return from a bond or bond fund is to buy it when interest rates are high but about to come down, Cherry said.

If you buy bonds toward the end of a period when rates are rising, you can lock in high coupon yields and enjoy the increase in the market value of your bond once rates start to come down.

And if you’re a bond lover, you’re up. After more than a decade of dismal bond yields, the two-fold impact of high rates right now and falling inflation offers an opportunity for investment income. When interest rates move lower, bond prices will rise. (Interest rates and bond prices move in opposite directions.)

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“Adding low-price and higher-yield long-term bonds at current levels could add total return diversification value to your bond and overall investment portfolio, which has not been the case in recent past rate-raising environments,” Cherry said.

This is a narrow opportunity, though, before rates start dipping and bond prices go up.

“If you have adequate liquidity and won’t need to tap the money at a moment’s notice, then locking in bond yields now over a multiyear period can provide a more predictable income stream,” Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, told Yahoo Finance.

“As the Fed starts cutting interest rates, short-term yields will fall faster than long-term yields in the months ahead, so do this for the income rather than the expectation of capital gains,” he said.

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Fidelity offers over 100,000 bonds, including US Treasury, corporate, and municipal bonds. Most have mid- to­ high-quality credit ratings, but to me the sheer number of choices is mind-boggling. (Getty Images) (damircudic via Getty Images)

One way savers can pivot as rates head down is to set up a bond or CD ladder with staggered maturities, instead of investing all your funds in a single CD or bond with one set term length. This tactic can provide “a more predictable income stream while providing regular access to principal,” McBride said.

I hold my personal savings, for example, in several buckets, including six-month and one-year CDs, a money market account, high-yield savings accounts, and a checking account.

The bulk of my retirement holding is stocks and bonds mainly through broad index funds. How you divide up your savings and investments between stock and bonds, mutual funds and money market funds, or high-yield savings accounts is a balance that only you will know you’re comfortable with, based on your risk tolerance and how soon you need to tap the funds.

Many retirees want a more conservative asset mix as they age so they don’t face that uneasy feeling when the stock market is shaky. That’s why near-retirees and retirees, in particular, who haven’t taken a gander at their asset allocations for a while should consider doing so.

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Read more: CDs vs. bonds: What’s the difference, and which one is right for me?

Most 401(k) investors are in bond mutual funds for the fixed-income portion of their portfolios, which are highly diversified and usually invested in intermediate (five-year) high-quality government and corporate bonds.

Most of us aren’t researching and investing, for instance, in individual intermediate bonds. If you opt to do-it-yourself and choose individual bonds and hold them until they mature, you’ve got plenty to select from, of course. Fidelity offers over 100,000 bonds, including US Treasury, corporate, and municipal bonds. Most have mid- to­ high-quality credit ratings, but to me the sheer number of choices is mind-boggling.

So I buy shares in a wide range of individual bonds via a bond mutual fund or ETF to add a bond ballast to my retirement accounts. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF, for example, is a diversified, one-stop shop comprising more than 11,000 “investment grade” bonds — including government, corporate, and international dollar-denominated bonds, as well as mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities — all with maturities of more than one year.

Right now, more than 60% of the Vanguard fund’s total assets are in government bonds, and its year-to-date return is 4.94%.

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As Vanguard notes, this fund “may be more appropriate for medium- or long-term goals where you’re looking for a reliable income stream and is appropriate for diversifying the risks of stocks in a portfolio.”

For shorter-term goals, staying ahead of rates falling is smart to lock in alluring rates for money you might need sooner rather than later.

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The majority of financial advisers I spoke to didn’t suggest any knee-jerk actions ahead of the Fed meeting. In other words, don’t close your bank accounts.

“Inflation has certainly moderated, but in our opinion is not likely to be a further decline substantially,” said Peter J. Klein, chief investment officer and founder of ALINE Wealth.

If that’s the case, the Fed will not keep lowering interest rates but will hold them steady moving forward.

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“Looking at the long arc of inflation history, one can see the changes … leading to sticky and persistent inflationary pressures. So, the notion that rates will come down substantially — and stay down — is not our base case,” Klein said.

That means that those savings you have in a federally insured, accessible bank account earning above the rate of inflation remain a good bet. That’s especially the case for those nearing or in near retirement who plan to tap that money for living expenses and don’t want the worry that comes from price fluctuations in stocks and bonds.

“Cash is the only asset that an investor can deploy in a portfolio that has zero risk of losing its nominal value,” Klein added.

Kerry Hannon is a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance. She is a career and retirement strategist, and the author of 14 books, including “In Control at 50+: How to Succeed in The New World of Work” and “Never Too Old To Get Rich.” Follow her on X @kerryhannon.

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