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What financial markets say about the economic implications of a potential Trump election victory

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Some of Donald Trump’s policy proposals could have profound macroeconomic implications, but there is large uncertainty around the (net) economic effects a second Trump term would have. For instance, would the US dollar appreciate due to new tariffs, or would it fall in the face of Trump’s repeated vocal opposition to a strong dollar? And what would a Trump victory mean for US growth or the disinflationary process underway in both the US and the euro area? As the election draws closer, this uncertainty has already led to heightened volatility in financial markets, as documented by Albori and coauthors in a recent VoxEU contribution (Albori et al. 2024). Extending their analysis, in this column we use betting market data in a VAR model to assess the economic implications of a second Trump term from the perspective of financial market participants.

Measuring Trump’s victory odds using betting data

We directly measure the market’s evolving assessment of Trump’s victory prospects using data from prediction markets. These markets allow participants to bet money on certain events, including election outcomes. As with other financial market prices, betting quotes then contain all sorts of information that might affect the outcome of the bet, and have been used by Moramarco and coauthors to quantify political risk in a Vox contribution (Moramarco et al. 2020). For our analysis, we use implied probabilities of a Trump victory in the upcoming US presidential election from PredictIt and PolyMarket, as averaged and provided by Bloomberg.

Relative to election polling data – which were used by Albori et al. (2024) – betting odds come with several advantages. First, they account for the particularities of the US electoral system such as the Electoral College.
An improvement, say, in polling numbers does not necessarily translate into better chances of actually winning the election.
Second, polling data are gathered over several days and published with a lag. 
In contrast, betting odds respond to election-relevant news almost immediately in an information efficient way.

However, the odds of a Trump election win, and by implication betting quotes, will generally respond to all sorts of news and economic developments, giving rise to an identification problem. For instance, the publication of surprisingly high US inflation readings might lower the odds of a Democratic win because they could signal continued price pressures that weigh on the current administration’s perceived economic performance. To the extent that an inflation surprise also signals more restrictive US monetary policy, asset prices might fall. Therefore, an observed co-movement of betting odds and asset prices is not necessarily informative about what we are ultimately interested in, namely, the causal effect of changes in Trump’s likelihood to win the election, as interpreted by financial markets.

We overcome this identification problem by exploiting the real-time nature of betting quotes. Specifically, we measure the high-frequency movements of Trump betting odds around key election-related events (see Table 1).
These events clearly affected the markets’ assessment of the likelihood of a Trump victory, but were independent of other factors such as the state of the economy. This allows us to use these high-frequency movements as an instrumental variable in a financial market VAR, which we describe below.

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Figure 1 Betting odds around two key election-related events

Note: Implied probabilities for a Trump (light blue) and Harris/Biden (dark dashed) victory in the US presidential elections 2024 derived from prediction markets around the assassination attempt on July 13 (left panel) and the 2nd presidential debate (right panel). Values in percent. Time refers to Easter Daylight Time (EDT, Washington D.C.).
Source: ElectionBettingOdds.com, authors’ calculations.

To illustrate the approach, Figure 1 shows the evolution of betting odds around two such election-related events. The left panel depicts the implied probability of a Trump victory, next to the one for Biden or Harris, around the failed assassination attempt on Trump on 13 July. In the hours before the event, the likelihood of a Trump victory was steady at around 59%. Yet, once the failed attempt on Trump’s life – and his defiant response in its aftermath – were reported around 6:30pm EDT, the probability jumped up to roughly 65%. The odds of a Biden/Harris win dropped correspondingly. The right panel shows that Harris’ chances of winning increased by almost 4 percentage points around the second presidential debate on 10 September, in line with the perception that Harris delivered a more convincing performance.
Notably, both events occurred when other US markets were closed (on the weekend and in the late evening, respectively), such that other US news or data releases are unlikely to explain the observed jumps.

Table 1 Events used to construct the instrument

Note: The third column shows the change in Trump’s election likelihood in a 2-3 hour window around the respective event, which we use as the instrument value on these days.
Source: ElectionBettingOdds.com, authors’ calculations.

The causal effects of a higher Trump election likelihood on financial markets in a structural financial market model

We estimate a financial market VAR model containing daily observations of eight variables from 1 January to 13 September 2024.
As outlined, the first variable measures the probability that Trump will win the election, expressed in log odds. Additionally, the model contains two-year treasury yields, the (log) S&P 500, and the (log) EUR-USD exchange rate to capture important aspects of the US economy. We further add prices of assets that arguably stand to benefit from a Trump victory, as often reported in the financial press (the log share price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), and the log price of Bitcoin in USD).
Finally, we include market-based inflation compensation (inflation linked swaps) in the US and the euro area over the next 24 months as a measure capturing genuine inflation expectations and associated inflation risks.

Armed with the instrument derived from high-frequency movements in betting odds, we can then identify and trace out the dynamic effects of a Trump election likelihood shock. Figure 2 shows that a 20% increase in Trump’s log odds to win the election (equivalent a five percentage point increase in the probability of a win) increases the two asset prices associated with so-called Trump trades significantly: the price of Bitcoin increases by more than 3% on impact, the DJT share price by almost 10%. We interpret these results as lending credibility to the underlying identification scheme.

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An increase in the likelihood that Trump wins the presidential election also significantly affects key US financial market prices. Two-year US interest rates rise by roughly five basis points following the shock, whereas the S&P 500 tends to fall at least initially by almost half a percent. The same applies for the EUR-USD exchange rate, implying an immediate depreciation of the euro.
Notably, both US and euro area two-year inflation swap rates rise and reach a peak response of almost four basis points.

Figure 2 Impulse responses to a Trump election likelihood shock

Note: Impulse responses in the daily financial market VAR model to an exogenous shock to the likelihood of a Trump victory in the US presidential election, normalized to increase Trump’s log odds by 20% (equivalent to a five percentage point increase in the implied probability). All values in percent(age points). Dark shaded areas denote 68%, light shaded areas 90% confidence bands.           

Taken together, the impulse responses suggest that market participants associate a Trump election victory, if anything, with contractionary supply-side effects on net. Such an interpretation would be in line with standard macroeconomic theory to the extent that some of Trump’s policy proposals (imposing additional tariffs, expelling migrants) would increase price pressures but weigh on potential output in the US. If instead demand-type effects dominated, one would expect the observed rise in inflation expectations to be accompanied by an increase in broad stock market valuations. The estimated increase in two-year interest rates can be rationalised by the expectation of tighter US monetary policy as a response to rising inflationary pressures. Finally, a weaker euro is in line with expectations that Trump would raise tariffs also on European and not just on Chinese goods (Jeanne and Son 2024). This euro depreciation, alongside higher tariff-driven import prices, would transmit inflationary pressures to the euro area as well.

Authors’ note: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Bundesbank or the Eurosystem.

References

Albori, M, A Moro and V Nispi Landi (2024), “US election risks and the impact of Trump’s re-election odds on financial markets”, VoxEU.org, 24 July. 

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Gertler, M and P Karadi (2015), “Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 7(1):44-76.

Jeanne, O and J Son (2024), ‘To what extent are tariffs offset by exchange rates?’, Journal of International Money and Finance 142:103015.

Moramarco, G, G Trigilia and P Manasse (2020), “Political risk and exchange rates: The lessons of Brexit”, VoxEU.org, 17 February.

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How Applied Materials Is Driving Transformation of the Finance Function with SAP Taulia

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How Applied Materials Is Driving Transformation of the Finance Function with SAP Taulia

Within the global manufacturing industry, maintaining a competitive edge requires a delicate balance between driving internal efficiency and fostering strong external relationships. For Applied Materials, a leader in materials engineering solutions for the semiconductor industry, this challenge became the foundation for a strategic finance transformation program, with an SAP Taulia solution emerging as a key enabler.

The journey began in early 2019 with the launch of Agile Finance, an end-to-end transformation initiative designed to support the company’s aggressive growth trajectory, which included a goal to double in size. The initiative was built around three strategic pillars: enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the finance organization, promoting career fulfillment, and establishing a robust digital operating model. The impact was significant, with the finance function achieving approximately 35% productivity gains in its labor force.

The third pillar—the move to a digital operating model—is where the partnership with SAP Taulia began.

“The SAP Taulia Dynamic Discounting solution was introduced not merely as a cost-cutting measure, but as a strategic tool to transform and digitize the interaction with Applied’s extensive, global supplier base,” Junaid Ahmed, corporate VP, Finance at Applied Materials, says. “We understood that to reap the benefits of digitization, we had to ensure the suppliers were on board. It needed to be a win-win outcome.”

Unprecedented flexibility for suppliers

The program empowers suppliers—thousands of them worldwide—to self-select which approved invoices they wish to discount for early payment. This is not a continuous, all-or-nothing commitment but rather a decision made on an invoice-by-invoice basis. This flexibility allows suppliers to manage their working capital needs with greater precision, taking advantage of early payment during their own critical periods, such as quarter-end or year-end, to help meet their own financial targets.

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The system also drastically improves transactional efficiency. Suppliers no longer have to call Applied to track invoice status, approval, or payment date. All this information is available 24/7 in the SAP Taulia solution, reducing resource allocation on both sides and ensuring both reap the benefits of moving to an integrated, digital system.

Free working capital to strengthen your financial supply chain and manage risk with SAP Taulia solutions

Strategic benefits for Applied Materials

For Applied, the program is a testament to its focus on balancing efficiency with strong supplier relationships. The philosophy is a “win-win” built on a crucial spread: Applied Materials, as a Fortune 500 company with strong cash flow, has a significantly lower cost of capital than many of its suppliers. By funding the discounts, Applied captures a return—the discount income—while offering its suppliers funding at a rate close to their cost of capital, but with greater convenience.

This relationship-focused approach is critical. Applied’s supplier account managers actively support the program because they recognize its mutual benefit, not viewing it as a finance mandate to push costs onto the supply base.

Furthermore, the “dynamic” nature of the discount rates is a powerful risk mitigation tool. Unlike fixed contractual discounts, the rates can be adjusted in response to global economic changes, such as shifts in interest rates. When interest rates rose after the pandemic, Applied was able to adjust the discount rates accordingly with minimal pushback, as the core proposition remains the valuable spread between the parties’ cost of capital.

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The SAP Taulia Dynamic Discounting solution has been rolled out globally, giving all suppliers the opportunity to use it. This has been critical over the last 12 months as many businesses around the globe have been subject to new and often unexpected tariff costs impacting their margin and their liquidity.

“The flexibility of the solution means suppliers can access funds when they need them, which helps them navigate some of the economic uncertainty that many businesses are facing,” Dirk Holoubek, managing director, Finance Shared Services, explains. “2025 saw a 23% increase in usage of the discounts, reflecting the pressures that suppliers are feeling right now on their cash flow.” 

The solution’s capability to drive sophisticated analytics is also a major strategic asset. It helps provide insights into the different costs of capital between Applied and its supplier base. This data allows for targeted outreach and communication, ensuring that the offer of capital support is proactively extended to the suppliers that need it most.

The strategic value of the solution is further cemented by its ownership. The acquisition of Taulia by SAP brings several advantages.

“Trust is really important to both us and our suppliers,” Ahmed says. “For our suppliers to adopt a new solution, they need to know its technology they can rely on in the long term. Being part of SAP creates that assurance in the long-term future of the program.”

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Looking forward, Applied Materials is already focused on the next stage of the transformation project: Agile Finance 3.0, which is focused on enabling the organization to become AI-first. The company is deploying a global, organization-wide AI assistant to drive personal productivity, but the strategic application of AI in the supplier management space is even more profound.

AI is expected to transform decision-making enablement by analyzing critical information and communicating effective options. In the future, AI will be able to proactively assess the specific needs and attributes of the supplier base, enabling Applied to address issues more quickly and resolve them earlier. The benefits are already tangible in e-invoicing: AI has made the solution more flexible and “human-like,” capable of reading minor changes in invoice format that would have previously caused electronic errors. This reduced rigidity and increased flexibility are directly contributing to the overall efficiency of the digital operating model.

By leveraging the SAP Taulia Dynamic Discounting solution, Applied Materials has not only digitized a process but also strategically transformed its financial operations, creating a system that is agile, resilient, and focused on maintaining mutually beneficial relationships with its global supplier ecosystem.


Cedric Bru is CEO of SAP Taulia.

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Houston budget amendment would give financial assistance to help those impacted by a trash fee

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Houston budget amendment would give financial assistance to help those impacted by a trash fee

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — Houston City Council could soon consider whether to offer financial assistance to help those who may struggle to afford a proposed trash fee.

This month, council will approve a budget. In it, Mayor John Whitmire doesn’t increase taxes.

However, he does want to charge a $5 monthly fee to cover trash services. A plan to help close the city’s nearly $200 million deficit that doesn’t add up to some.

Speaking in front of council on Wednesday, Super Neighborhood 64 president Lindsay Williams brought more than concerns, she had numbers surrounding the mayor’s proposed $5 monthly trash fee.

A plan his team says could climb to $25 a month by 2032. If it does, Williams told council that $300 annual cost would be just .15% of a $200,000 income.

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For someone making $15,000, it’s two percent. “More than 13 times the burden for the same trash, same truck and same fee, but not the same pay,” Williams explained.

However, Controller Chris Hollins said the mayor’s not being truthful about the real cost.

“Houstonians are not stupid,” Hollins said. “We should not treat Houstonians like they’re stupid.”

Hollins said the cost may need to be $40 a month. Whitmire didn’t respond to Hollins during the meeting when he asked if he plans to increase the fee.

No matter the cost, some council members want to offer financial relief. Right now, there are no exceptions.

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However, an amendment council will consider from Council Member Alejandra Salinas next week would change that.

“If they for whatever reason met the threshold and need an additional need because of the administrative fee, our amendment would allow them to apply for funds through the water fund,” Salinas said.

The trash fee wasn’t the only item from the mayor’s seven and a half billion dollar budget proposal that sparked debate. Hollins said a plan to divert money away from water utilities could drain a billion over the next five years from infrastructure money.

Whitmire disagrees saying there’s more than enough funds to handle the change, and continue with projects.

“We’ve all admitted the budget’s not perfect, but certainly it’s a first start that Houstonians understand and it’s a shame it’s being so politicized because it’s literally people’s lives and death,” Whitmire said.

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Council will vote on amendments next week. It has to have a new budget in place by the end of the month.

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How can I illustrate our financial position to a spouse who shows little interest?

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How can I illustrate our financial position to a spouse who shows little interest?

Reader question: My spouse has little interest in our financial position. As we age, this concerns me. I try to share some basic information (income, spending, account balances, debt, and so on) each month but rarely get a response. I think graphs or charts might be of more interest to her than a bunch of numbers. What recommendations would you have for illustrating our financial position so that I am not the only person aware of how we are situated? Thanks!

Answer: Your situation is pretty common. Most couples I know develop a division of labor over time, where one person is in charge of financial matters and the other person is less involved. That’s definitely the case for my husband and me. He’s in charge of paying all the monthly bills and preparing our tax returns, but the financial planning and investment decisions are up to me. This type of arrangement might work well for a long time, but can become less sustainable with age, particularly if the “finance person” in the relationship dies or develops a major health issue.

Online tools and mind maps

Illustrating your financial situation with charts and graphs is a great idea that might help your spouse become a little more involved. Morningstar’s  Portfolio X-Ray  tool includes a variety of images that help illustrate your financial situation. Websites for most major brokerage firms also include some visual tools. Schwab, for example, offers a Portfolio Checkup and a bar graph illustrating your account’s monthly income from dividends and interest income. Vanguard has a Portfolio Watch tool and a variety of performance illustrations, tools, and calculators.

A  mind map, which we used with clients when I worked for a financial advisory firm, can be another way to picture your entire financial situation on one page. There are various  softwaretemplates  for drawing a mind map, or you can simply sketch it out with a large sheet of paper and a pencil. Start with your names at the center of the page. Then draw spokes connecting to various categories, such as names of other family members; investment accounts; real estate and other assets, insurance policies, estate plans, key goals and values, and contact information for accountants, estate planners, and other professionals. It can be helpful to go through the mind map together and make any updates needed at least once a year.

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Other ways to communicate about money

A few other ideas—though not related to charts and graphs—might also be useful.

I like the idea of putting together a  net worth statement  that itemizes cash, taxable accounts, real estate, retirement accounts, and debt for each member of the couple as well as items owned jointly. It’s a good idea to update this document at least once a year and  discuss it as a couple. If you set up the document as a spreadsheet, you can include columns with additional information such as account numbers, what each account is used for, which accounts are subject to required minimum distributions, or tax issues like potential capital gains.

Many couples also put together a  binder  (sometimes humorously called a “Doomsday Book”) that contains information about where to find important paperwork, insurance policies, how bills are paid, what each account is for, steps the surviving spouse will need to take, final wishes, and any other critical information.

A well-qualified financial adviser can bridge the information gap

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Finally, you could consider working with a good  financial adviser,  who can help involve your spouse in financial matters while you’re still living and step in to fully manage investments and personal finance decisions if you pass away before your spouse. Make sure the adviser holds the Certified Financial Planner designation and charges fees that are reasonable. Although a 1% fee is still the industry standard for accounts of $1 million or less, it’s possible to find advisers who charge significantly less, including a few who price their services based on hours worked instead of a percentage of assets under management.

_____

This article was provided to The Associated Press by Morningstar. For more personal finance content, go to https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance.

Amy C. Arnott, CFA, is a portfolio strategist for Morningstar and co-host of The Long View podcast.

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