Finance
What financial markets say about the economic implications of a potential Trump election victory
Some of Donald Trump’s policy proposals could have profound macroeconomic implications, but there is large uncertainty around the (net) economic effects a second Trump term would have. For instance, would the US dollar appreciate due to new tariffs, or would it fall in the face of Trump’s repeated vocal opposition to a strong dollar? And what would a Trump victory mean for US growth or the disinflationary process underway in both the US and the euro area? As the election draws closer, this uncertainty has already led to heightened volatility in financial markets, as documented by Albori and coauthors in a recent VoxEU contribution (Albori et al. 2024). Extending their analysis, in this column we use betting market data in a VAR model to assess the economic implications of a second Trump term from the perspective of financial market participants.
Measuring Trump’s victory odds using betting data
We directly measure the market’s evolving assessment of Trump’s victory prospects using data from prediction markets. These markets allow participants to bet money on certain events, including election outcomes. As with other financial market prices, betting quotes then contain all sorts of information that might affect the outcome of the bet, and have been used by Moramarco and coauthors to quantify political risk in a Vox contribution (Moramarco et al. 2020). For our analysis, we use implied probabilities of a Trump victory in the upcoming US presidential election from PredictIt and PolyMarket, as averaged and provided by Bloomberg.
Relative to election polling data – which were used by Albori et al. (2024) – betting odds come with several advantages. First, they account for the particularities of the US electoral system such as the Electoral College.
An improvement, say, in polling numbers does not necessarily translate into better chances of actually winning the election.
Second, polling data are gathered over several days and published with a lag.
In contrast, betting odds respond to election-relevant news almost immediately in an information efficient way.
However, the odds of a Trump election win, and by implication betting quotes, will generally respond to all sorts of news and economic developments, giving rise to an identification problem. For instance, the publication of surprisingly high US inflation readings might lower the odds of a Democratic win because they could signal continued price pressures that weigh on the current administration’s perceived economic performance. To the extent that an inflation surprise also signals more restrictive US monetary policy, asset prices might fall. Therefore, an observed co-movement of betting odds and asset prices is not necessarily informative about what we are ultimately interested in, namely, the causal effect of changes in Trump’s likelihood to win the election, as interpreted by financial markets.
We overcome this identification problem by exploiting the real-time nature of betting quotes. Specifically, we measure the high-frequency movements of Trump betting odds around key election-related events (see Table 1).
These events clearly affected the markets’ assessment of the likelihood of a Trump victory, but were independent of other factors such as the state of the economy. This allows us to use these high-frequency movements as an instrumental variable in a financial market VAR, which we describe below.
Figure 1 Betting odds around two key election-related events
Note: Implied probabilities for a Trump (light blue) and Harris/Biden (dark dashed) victory in the US presidential elections 2024 derived from prediction markets around the assassination attempt on July 13 (left panel) and the 2nd presidential debate (right panel). Values in percent. Time refers to Easter Daylight Time (EDT, Washington D.C.).
Source: ElectionBettingOdds.com, authors’ calculations.
To illustrate the approach, Figure 1 shows the evolution of betting odds around two such election-related events. The left panel depicts the implied probability of a Trump victory, next to the one for Biden or Harris, around the failed assassination attempt on Trump on 13 July. In the hours before the event, the likelihood of a Trump victory was steady at around 59%. Yet, once the failed attempt on Trump’s life – and his defiant response in its aftermath – were reported around 6:30pm EDT, the probability jumped up to roughly 65%. The odds of a Biden/Harris win dropped correspondingly. The right panel shows that Harris’ chances of winning increased by almost 4 percentage points around the second presidential debate on 10 September, in line with the perception that Harris delivered a more convincing performance.
Notably, both events occurred when other US markets were closed (on the weekend and in the late evening, respectively), such that other US news or data releases are unlikely to explain the observed jumps.
Table 1 Events used to construct the instrument
Note: The third column shows the change in Trump’s election likelihood in a 2-3 hour window around the respective event, which we use as the instrument value on these days.
Source: ElectionBettingOdds.com, authors’ calculations.
The causal effects of a higher Trump election likelihood on financial markets in a structural financial market model
We estimate a financial market VAR model containing daily observations of eight variables from 1 January to 13 September 2024.
As outlined, the first variable measures the probability that Trump will win the election, expressed in log odds. Additionally, the model contains two-year treasury yields, the (log) S&P 500, and the (log) EUR-USD exchange rate to capture important aspects of the US economy. We further add prices of assets that arguably stand to benefit from a Trump victory, as often reported in the financial press (the log share price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), and the log price of Bitcoin in USD).
Finally, we include market-based inflation compensation (inflation linked swaps) in the US and the euro area over the next 24 months as a measure capturing genuine inflation expectations and associated inflation risks.
Armed with the instrument derived from high-frequency movements in betting odds, we can then identify and trace out the dynamic effects of a Trump election likelihood shock. Figure 2 shows that a 20% increase in Trump’s log odds to win the election (equivalent a five percentage point increase in the probability of a win) increases the two asset prices associated with so-called Trump trades significantly: the price of Bitcoin increases by more than 3% on impact, the DJT share price by almost 10%. We interpret these results as lending credibility to the underlying identification scheme.
An increase in the likelihood that Trump wins the presidential election also significantly affects key US financial market prices. Two-year US interest rates rise by roughly five basis points following the shock, whereas the S&P 500 tends to fall at least initially by almost half a percent. The same applies for the EUR-USD exchange rate, implying an immediate depreciation of the euro.
Notably, both US and euro area two-year inflation swap rates rise and reach a peak response of almost four basis points.
Figure 2 Impulse responses to a Trump election likelihood shock
Note: Impulse responses in the daily financial market VAR model to an exogenous shock to the likelihood of a Trump victory in the US presidential election, normalized to increase Trump’s log odds by 20% (equivalent to a five percentage point increase in the implied probability). All values in percent(age points). Dark shaded areas denote 68%, light shaded areas 90% confidence bands.
Taken together, the impulse responses suggest that market participants associate a Trump election victory, if anything, with contractionary supply-side effects on net. Such an interpretation would be in line with standard macroeconomic theory to the extent that some of Trump’s policy proposals (imposing additional tariffs, expelling migrants) would increase price pressures but weigh on potential output in the US. If instead demand-type effects dominated, one would expect the observed rise in inflation expectations to be accompanied by an increase in broad stock market valuations. The estimated increase in two-year interest rates can be rationalised by the expectation of tighter US monetary policy as a response to rising inflationary pressures. Finally, a weaker euro is in line with expectations that Trump would raise tariffs also on European and not just on Chinese goods (Jeanne and Son 2024). This euro depreciation, alongside higher tariff-driven import prices, would transmit inflationary pressures to the euro area as well.
Authors’ note: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Bundesbank or the Eurosystem.
References
Albori, M, A Moro and V Nispi Landi (2024), “US election risks and the impact of Trump’s re-election odds on financial markets”, VoxEU.org, 24 July.
Gertler, M and P Karadi (2015), “Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 7(1):44-76.
Jeanne, O and J Son (2024), ‘To what extent are tariffs offset by exchange rates?’, Journal of International Money and Finance 142:103015.
Moramarco, G, G Trigilia and P Manasse (2020), “Political risk and exchange rates: The lessons of Brexit”, VoxEU.org, 17 February.
Finance
Household savings, income and finances in Spain: how did they fare in 2025 and what can we expect for 2026?
In 2025, GDI grew above the rate of average annual inflation (2.7%) and the growth in the number of households (1.3% according to the LFS), which allowed for a recovery in purchasing power. In this context, real household income has grown by 4.5% since before the pandemic, highlighting that households have continued to gain purchasing power in real terms.
The strong financial position of households is reflected not only in the high savings rate but also in their financial accounts. In this regard, households’ financial wealth continued to increase in 2025: their financial assets amounted to 3.4 trillion euros at the end of the year, versus 3.1 trillion at the end of 2024. This increase of 292 billion euros is broken down into a net acquisition of financial assets amounting to 95 billion, higher than the 21.5-billion average in the period 2015-2019, when interest rates were very low, and a revaluation effect of 194 billion. When breaking down the net acquisition of assets, we note that households invested 42 billion euros in equities and investment funds, just under 9.6 billion less than in deposits, while they disposed of debt securities worth 6 billion following the fall in interest rates.
On the other hand, households continued to deleverage in 2025, and by the end of the year their financial liabilities stood at 46.9% of GDP, compared to 47.8% in 2024, the lowest level since the end of 1998. This decline reflects the fact that, in 2025, households took advantage of the interest rate drop to prudently incur debt: net new borrowing amounted to 35 billion euros, representing an increase of 3.8%, which is lower than the nominal GDP growth of 5.8% and the GDI growth of 5.3%.
As a result of the increase in financial assets and the decrease in liabilities as a percentage of GDP, the net financial wealth of households recorded a notable increase of 7.3 points compared to 2024, reaching 156.8% of GDP.
Finance
Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer touts ‘strong financial outlook’ in city’s budget proposal
FRESNO, Calif. (KFSN) — Mayor Jerry Dyer has unveiled his 2026- 2027 budget proposal at Fresno’s City Hall.
The overall budget total is $2.55 billion, with a majority of the funding going to public works, utilities, police and FAX.
The mayor also highlighted several investments, including a 10-year tree trimming cycle, the Homeless Assistance Response Team and an America 250 celebration.
Dyer says that despite some challenging circumstances, the City of Fresno’s long-term financial condition remains healthy.
“We’re pleased to say that based on increasing revenues and sound financial management, as well as a very healthy reserve, the city of Fresno has a strong financial outlook,” he said.
Dyer’s office says the budget is a comprehensive financial plan that reflects the city’s ongoing commitment to the “One Fresno” vision.
Copyright © 2026 KFSN-TV. All Rights Reserved.
Finance
Nature Is Water Infrastructure. It’s Time To Finance It That Way
Cape Town is experiencing severe drought the main dam at Theewaterskloof is only at 10% capacity, on April 03, 2018 in Cape Town, South Africa. Diminishing water supplies may lead to the taps being turned off for the four millions inhabitants of Cape Town on April 12 2018, known locally as Day Zero. Water will be restricted from 87 litres per day to 50 litres as temperatures reach 28 degrees later this week. Politicians are blaming each other and residents for the deepening crisis.
John Snelling
Back in 2018 Cape Town, South Africa came dangerously close to running out of water. A severe, multi-year drought, combined with population growth and rising demand, pushed the city toward what officials called “Day Zero” – the moment when municipal water supplies would fall so low that household taps would be shut off and residents would be forced to collect daily water rations from designated distribution sites.
The city responded with extraordinary urgency. Emergency water stations were prepared. Public campaigns urged residents to reduce water consumption to just 13 gallons per day (the amount used in a single 6-minute shower). Monitoring systems tracked household water use. The filling of swimming pools and the washing of cars were banned.
Cape Town is experiencing severe drought many public buildings and Shopping Malls have cut water supplies to reduce water usage, on April 03, 2018 in Cape Town, South Africa.
John Snelling
These efforts helped Cape Town narrowly avoid a catastrophe. But the warning was unmistakable.
Water security is not only an environmental issue. It’s an economic issue. It’s a public health issue. It’s a food security issue. And for communities around the world, it is becoming a basic test of climate resilience.
In Cape Town, the crisis was driven by a combination of pressures. The city depends heavily on reservoirs supplied by six major dams. By 2018 these reservoirs had fallen below 20% capacity after years of drought. Aging infrastructure added strain. So did the spread of invasive plants, which consumed enormous amounts of water before it could reach the municipal system.
This last point matters. When we think about water infrastructure, we usually think about pipes, reservoirs, dams, pumps, and treatment plants. Those systems are essential. But they are only part of the story. The landscapes that capture, filter, store, and release water are vital infrastructure, too.
The good news is that we know how to better prevent and prepare for these risks moving forward. The answer? Investing in common-sense, nature-based solutions that restore balance to the region’s ecosystem. These are not abstract environmental ideals. They are practical investments with measurable benefits. The hard part has always been paying for them.
Nature-based solutions remain dramatically underfunded. This is a central challenge to global conservation efforts today. Indeed, it’s not that we lack solutions. We lack financial systems capable of delivering those solutions at the speed and scale required.
But that is beginning to change.
Cape Town residents queue to refill water bottles at Newlands Brewery Spring Water Point on January 30, 2018 in Cape Town, South Africa. Diminishing water supplies may lead to the taps being turned off for the four millions inhabitants of Cape Town on April 16 2018, known locally as Day Zero. Water will be restricted from 87 litres per day to 50 litres as temperatures reach 28 degrees later this week.(Photo by Morgana Wingard/Getty Images)
Getty Images
A New Model for Financing Nature
The Cape Water Performance-Based Bond, announced last month, is more than just a creative financing tool. It is a five-year, outcomes‑linked transaction designed to mobilize capital markets at scale in support of nature‑based solutions, bringing together public institutions, philanthropic support, conservation expertise, and private capital to deliver measurable environmental results.
The bond, listed on the Johannesburg Stock exchange valued at R2.5 billion (USD $150 million) brought together FirstRand Bank as issuer, Rand Merchant Bank as arranger and structurer, and a coalition of local and international investors and philanthropic funders. As part of the structuring, The Nature Conservancy (TNCs) South Africa Program receives R150 million (USD $8.8 million) for implementation. And its most important feature is also its most innovative: investor returns are linked directly to independently verified ecological outcomes.
That is a major step forward.
For years, sustainable finance has often relied on “use-of-proceeds” models. Capital is raised and directed toward projects expected to produce environmental benefits. Yes, those models have value. But the Cape Water bond goes further. Investors are not simply financing a project that promises environmental benefits. Their returns are tied to whether those benefits are actually delivered. In this case, the outcome is clear: restoring critical water source areas in South Africa’s Western Cape by removing invasive alien plants that reduce water yield, damage biodiversity, and increase wildfire risk.
Over the next few years, the restoration work supported through the Greater Cape Town Water Fund will focus on removal of invasive species such as Pine, Eucalyptus, and Australian acacias, which consume far more water than the Cape’s native vegetation. At the height of concern, invasive plants were estimated to consume nearly 150 million liters of water per day in the Greater Cape Town region alone. Put more plainly, that was approximately one-fifth of the entire city’s water usage during the crisis.
The work builds on efforts already underway via the Greater Cape Town Water Fund, which was formed by TNC and partners in response to Cape Town’s prolonged water crisis. Already these efforts have cleared tens of thousands of hectares of invasive, water hogging plants. The fund prioritizes science-driven, nature-based solutions that restore the watersheds feeding the city’s water supply. Here again, the outcomes are not assumed. They are measured. And they are verified. That kind of accountability matters. It builds trust. It strengthens rigor. And by systematically evaluating returns, it helps move conservation finance closer to mainstream capital markets.
A team from Likona Lethe Services – over 40 men and women strong – camp up on the mountain while they spend their days clearing the area of alien vegetation, in this case primarily pine trees. The Greater Cape Town Water Fund stimulates funding and implementation of catchment restoration efforts and, in the process, creates jobs and momentum to protect global biodiversity and build more resilient communities in the face of climate change. The Greater Cape Town Water Fund – a project of The Nature Conservancy – is cutting down thirsty non-indigenous trees – mostly pines – over the Cape Mountains to save water and restore indigenous fynbos. CREDIT: Samantha Reinders for The Washington Post via Getty Images. The Washington Post via Getty Images
The Warning of “Day Zero”
The Western Cape is a powerful place to prove this model.
Cape Town’s experience during the 2017-2018 drought showed the world what water insecurity looks like in real time. It also changed how many people think about infrastructure.
In the Western Cape, invasive alien plants have disrupted the natural function of key catchments. They consume large amounts of water, crowd out native vegetation, and weaken the ecological integrity of the region’s water source areas. Removing them is not just landscape restoration. It is water system restoration.
Analysis from the Greater Cape Town Water Fund indicates that clearing invasive plants across priority sub-watersheds could help return roughly 55 billion liters of water each year to the Western Cape Water Supply System – one-third of Cape Town’s annual municipal water needs.
That’s not a marginal environmental benefit. It represents one of the most cost‑effective nature‑based strategies available to strengthen long‑term water security, while also delivering biodiversity, wildfire‑risk, and economic benefits.
A Blueprint for Global Conservation Finance
The Cape Water bond helps make that case in a language markets understand.
Commercial finance provides scale. Philanthropic and outcomes-based support help absorb risk. Conservation organizations like TNC apply scientific and technical expertise to implement on-ground restoration, while independent verification ensures outcomes and integrity. Public-interest institutions keep the structure aligned with long-term community and ecosystem benefit.
Most of the invasive pine trees surrounding the immediate circumference of the Elandskloof Dam have already been cleared by the Greater Cape Town Water Fund teams. This dam is a sub-catchment for the Theewaterskloof Dam – the largest dam in the Western Cape Water Supply System with a capacity of 480 million cubic metres, about 41% of the water storage capacity available to Cape Town. TAs of October 2023, GCTWF teams have cleared more than 46,000 hectares of invasive trees. This recovers about 15.2 billion liters of water per year (42 million liters per day) back into the water catchment and keeps the rivers flowing. CREDIT: Samantha Reinders for The Washington Post via Getty Images. The Washington Post via Getty Images
Martin Potgieter of Rand Merchant Bank explained, “This is a R2.5 billion market signal that natural capital has entered mainstream finance — combining financial innovation with scientific rigor.”
That’s using different types of capital to unlock outcomes that no single funding source could achieve alone. It’s exactly what blended finance is supposed to do. And the model has global relevance.
Around the world, communities are searching for ways to close the gap between conservation need and available funding. Sovereign nature bonds and debt conversions helped unlock capital for ocean conservation in places like the Seychelles, Belize, Barbados, and Gabon. The Cape Water bond builds on that same spirit of innovation but applies it to watershed restoration through a performance-based capital markets instrument.
Nature-based solutions work. And the Cape Water Performance-Based Bond shows what is possible. Conservation can be tied to performance. Public institutions and private capital can work together. And ecological restoration, when structured well, can attract the kind of financial support needed to move from isolated pilot projects to real scale.
Nature has always been one of our most valuable assets. It is time our financial systems treated it that way.
___________________________________________
Author’s Note:
As a physician, I have spent much of my career studying human health. Increasingly, I have come to believe that understanding, and protecting, the health of the planet is inseparable from protecting our own.
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