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Trump’s Social Security tax break could make two fragile safety nets even weaker

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Trump’s Social Security tax break could make two fragile safety nets even weaker

Donald Trump’s call to exempt Social Security benefits from income taxes may offer an alluring political sound bite.

But the move would undermine not just one critical safety net for seniors, but two.

Trump’s plan is expected to exhaust the reserve funds for both Social Security and Medicare faster than anticipated, according to tax policy experts.

That would saddle seniors with an even bigger cut in Social Security benefits than currently estimated and throw a healthcare program that covers 67 million into chaos. Taxes on Social Security payouts help fund Medicare’s hospital coverage.

The plan would also add $1.6 trillion over 10 years to the country’s budget deficit with few economic gains, these experts said.

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“It’s not setting the entitlements up for success and it’s not putting our budget in a good position,” Garrett Watson, a senior policy analyst and modeling manager at the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, told Yahoo Finance.

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Asheville, N.C., Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Asheville, N.C., Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

The proposal has both the Tax Foundation and the Center for American Progress, which often are on opposite sides of tax policy, warning of the potential consequences.

“If smart analysts on the left and smart analysts on the right of the tax policy don’t think it’s a good idea, that certainly tells you something,” Brendan Duke, senior director for economic policy at the left-leaning Center for American Progress Action Fund, told Yahoo Finance.

“It’s probably not a good idea.”

Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, first floated the idea late last month at a rally in Harrisburg, Pa., vowing that “seniors should not pay taxes on Social Security and they won’t,” without offering further details.

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On Wednesday, Trump stood by a banner that read “No tax on Social Security” at a campaign rally in Asheville, N.C., calling the tax a “cruel double taxation.”

As it stands now, about 40% of seniors must pay federal income taxes on their Social Security benefits. The tax is progressive, meaning those with the lowest incomes aren’t taxed, while wealthier seniors with substantial income outside of their benefits are.

Exempting benefits from income taxes would provide an effective 44% benefit increase for seniors with the highest incomes, a 6% increase for middle-income ones, and no increase for most in the bottom half, according to Marc Goldwein, a senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

That’s before Social Security runs into trouble.

The tax seniors pay on their Social Security benefits also goes directly into funding the trust fund that supports the social program. Eliminating those taxes accelerates when the reserves for Social Security run out.

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(Credit: Social Security Administration)(Credit: Social Security Administration)

(Credit: Social Security Administration)

Currently, Social Security’s reserves are expected to be exhausted by 2035, at which point benefits will get cut by 21%. If Trump’s proposal is enacted, those reserves are estimated to run dry by 2033 and benefits would be slashed by 25%.

Even with the benefits cut, wealthier seniors come out slightly ahead with the tax break, pocketing a 9% increase, per Goldwein.

That’s not the case for lower-earning Social Security beneficiaries who would see their benefits reduced by a quarter with no tax break.

“The bottom half are losers,” Watson said.

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Overall, the plan would water down what is considered the biggest anti-poverty program in the United States.

“There is no world where this does not increase the elderly poverty rate,” Duke said.

Trump’s plan would also empty out the reserves that Medicare uses for hospital coverage — known as Medicare Part A — sooner than anticipated.

Right now, that fund is expected to run out in 2036. That moves up to 2030 under Trump’s plan, according to Watson.

The Medicare trustees have said the fund’s insolvency could first cause delays in payments to health plans and providers of hospital services. Additionally, seniors’ “access to health care services could rapidly be curtailed.”

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“Nobody actually knows what happens when Medicare runs out of money,” Duke said. “And that’s actually pretty scary.”

FILE - A shadow is seen across a Medicare card on June 10, 2024, in Portland, Ore. Majorities of Americans favor forgiving all or some of an individual's medical debt if the person is facing hardships, according to a new poll from the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (AP Photo/Jenny Kane)FILE - A shadow is seen across a Medicare card on June 10, 2024, in Portland, Ore. Majorities of Americans favor forgiving all or some of an individual's medical debt if the person is facing hardships, according to a new poll from the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (AP Photo/Jenny Kane)

A shadow is seen across a Medicare card on June 10, 2024, in Portland, Ore. (AP Photo/Jenny Kane) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

The implications for the federal deficit are also sizable.

Not taxing seniors’ benefits means $1.6 trillion in total revenue would not go to the trust funds that support Social Security and Medicare from 2024 to 2033, according to calculations using data from the most recent Social Security and Medicare trustees reports.

“This would mechanically add to the budget deficit and go in the wrong direction in solving that problem,” Watson added.

There would be very little economic return from the proposal, too, Watson found.

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The country’s long-run gross domestic product would increase by 0.1%, while the economy would add around 64,000 full-time jobs. Wages would tick up by less than 0.05%.

“The intent [of the proposal] is trying to protect seniors who are operating on fixed incomes from inflation and provide more relief by not taxing it,” Watson said. “But if it’s done without offsets, it weakens the very entitlements they’re trying to protect.”

Janna Herron is a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @JannaHerron.

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Finance

Global Paychecks: Personal Finance Tips From The Remote Work Boom

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Global Paychecks: Personal Finance Tips From The Remote Work Boom

Right now, in Río Tercero, a small city in Argentina near Córdoba, Virginia More works with Pinterest as a software engineer, bridging her local experience with cutting-edge Silicon Valley projects. Similarly, Luis Ramos Paco, from Santiago de Llallagua, Bolivia—where growing potatoes and raising animals is necessary to provide for one’s family—now works with a US-based SaaS client to update its legacy system with a friendlier UI.

The remote work revolution has opened doors for skilled professionals like Virginia and Luis worldwide. Companies like BairesDev– which connects Latin American talent with U.S. tech firms– are bridging global income gaps and allowing tech talent and software engineers into an increasingly globalized job market while staying close to their families and communities.

“The region offers a rapidly expanding talent pool, strong cultural alignment, and geographical proximity to the U.S.,” Nacho De Marco, CEO and Co-Founder of BairesDev, explains. “This facilitates seamless real-time collaboration and efficient workflows. 33% of U.S. businesses now want to outsource their business operations to a country that’s close by. Professionals from Latin America have a similar work culture to their North American neighbors and possess a high level of English proficiency.

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As a result of this type of demand, many BairesDev workers who once faced limited opportunities in rural areas now earn between $30,000 and $80,000 annually, placing them in the top 5% of earners in their home countries.

Other companies like Toptal and Adeva work in similar ways to connect talented and skilled individuals to job opportunities around the world, breaking down barriers to entry and revitalizing local economies.

If you’re considering a remote job that can connect you to a different corner of the global marketplace, here are some important things to consider as you embark on your job hunt.

Earn Globally, Live Locally

One of the most significant advantages of remote work is the ability to earn in a high-income market while living in a lower-cost region. BairesDev, for instance, has had more than 6,000 of its Latin American-based workers integrate with teams in U.S. companies, like Google and Pinterest.

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“During recruitment, we focus on a candidate’s competence over their credentials,” explains De Marco. “We also prioritize the future potential that someone can bring, in addition to their current skillset. This approach means discovering exceptional talent from diverse and often overlooked sources. Historically, around 40% of our developers come from non-metropolitan areas.”

Yes, that means you can live a balanced lifestyle in a quaint town like San Miguel de Allende while working with a U.S.-based tech giant.

Earning a higher paycheck while keeping your cost of living steady provides wealth-building opportunities, allowing you to build an emergency fund, pay off debt, and invest in property and other assets. Be sure to cross check the purchasing power of the currency you’ll be paid in to that of your local currency to ensure that you’re maximizing your potential earnings. Also make sure that the salary you’re being offered is fair compared to what employees at the company’s headquarters are making.

Track Finances Carefully

Once you’ve secured your remote job, you’ll want to set up a financial plan to ensure that you are maximizing your global paycheck without running into any snags. Opening a multi-currency bank account can help you minimize exchange rate losses and transfer fees, and many offer automations to make conversions between currencies seamless.

Also make sure to budget for any potential fluctuations in the foreign currency, as factors like inflation, interest rate adjustments, and governmental changes can affect the value of the foreign currency. As long as you’re earning well above your local cost of living, it’s smart to set aside a percentage of your earnings as a buffer to offset any potential currency devaluation.

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As you continue to earn more, it’s also wise to invest a portion of your income into diversified assets so you can grow your wealth over time. Many companies offer financial planning services as a benefit, and it can be especially helpful if you’re a first-time investor. Financial planners can also help you with your taxes, which can be more complicated when earning across borders.

Maintain Motivation and Work-life Balance

Though the higher salaries in other countries can sound so enticing that you consider working odd hours, try not to jump at just any opportunity for a higher paycheck. Instead, look at the big picture and consider the fact that your long-term earning potential is contingent upon factors like work-life balance, upskilling, and staying motivated. Working with a talent company like BairesDev can help set you up for success in this regard.

“By hiring candidates with strong communication skills and collaborative skills, our workforce is well-prepared to navigate the typical challenges associated with remote work,” says De Marco.

For smoother collaboration with your fellow employees– and to remain present in your day-to-day life– look for jobs at companies with similar time zones to yours. This will cause minimal disruptions to your schedule, allowing you time for family and social obligations– and time for learning new skills that can help you land your next job. Popular remote industries like tech, design, and project management tend to be good about providing professional development opportunities outside of the traditional workday, and you want to remain fresh and motivated to seize grown opportunities as they come.

Redefining Success: Building Wealth Across Borders

In an increasingly borderless world, the path to financial independence might be closer than you think. Companies like BairesDev are receiving over 2 million applications annually for remote work opportunities—approximately 10,000 applications every day, proving that demand for global remote jobs is continuing to grow.

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“In the U.S., the demand for tech talent is outstripping supply, with roles like information security and software development expected to grow by 33% and 18%, respectively, over the next decade,” says De Marco. “Latin America is rising to meet this demand, with Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina producing significantly more software engineers annually than the U.S.”

Opening doors for global talent also sparks a larger shift in how we think about work, money, and opportunity. This is not a small trend; it’s going to continue to be a defining feature of the global economy in the decades to come— and it’s very possible to make this work in your favor.

For professionals considering this path, remote work offers a unique opportunity to bridge the gap between higher global earnings and a lower local cost of living. With the right financial strategies—like careful currency management, smart investment strategies, and a focus on work-life balance—there is a very real opportunity for talented employees across the globe to achieve financial freedom without uprooting their lives.

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Stock market today: Asian shares fall as China reports lackluster data, while bitcoin hits new highs

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Stock market today: Asian shares fall as China reports lackluster data, while bitcoin hits new highs

BANGKOK (AP) — Shares retreated Monday in Asia after China reported lackluster economic indicators for November, while bitcoin surged to fresh highs, topping $106,000.

Oil prices fell and U.S. futures were little changed.

Bitcoin was trading at $104,948 early Monday, up 3.4% but down from an earlier high of $106,495.

The price of the cryptocurrency has surged since the election in November given U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s bitcoin-friendly stance. Trump signaled a lighter regulatory approach to digital currencies with his choice of crypto advocate Paul Atkins to be the next chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Bitcoin was trading below $70,000 before the Nov. 5 election.

A report Monday showed Chinese retail sales slowed in November, while growth in factory output was flat and home sales declined. The report said the economy and employment were stable, but noted a complicated “external environment,” reflecting unease over the outlook in coming months once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office, potentially delivering on promises to sharply hike tariffs on imports from China.

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Japan’s Nikkei 225 index edged 0.1% lower, to 39,438.74, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 0.8% to 19,821.24.

The Shanghai Composite index was almost unchanged, at 3,390.91.

South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.3% to 2,486.47 as South Korean law enforcement authorities were pushing to summon impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol for questioning over his short-lived martial law decree and the Constitutional Court met to discuss whether to remove him from office or reinstate him.

Taiwan’s Taiex edged 0.1% higher, while the Sensex in India fell 0.4%. Thailand’s SET dropped 0.9%.

On Friday, major stock indexes on Wall Street drifted to a mixed finish Friday, capping a rare bumpy week for the market.

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The S&P 500 ended essentially flat, down less than 0.1% at 6,051.09. The benchmark index posted a loss for the week, its first after three straight weekly gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2% to 43,828.06, while the Nasdaq composite rose 0.1% to 19,926.72, ending just below the record high it set on Wednesday.

There were more than twice as many decliners than gainers on the New York Stock Exchange.

Gains in technology stocks helped temper losses in communication services, financials and other sectors of the market.

Broadcom surged 24.4% for the biggest gain in the S&P 500 after the semiconductor company beat Wall Street’s profit targets and gave a glowing forecast, highlighting its artificial intelligence products. The company also raised its dividend.

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South Korean authorities to continue monitoring financial markets

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South Korean authorities to continue monitoring financial markets

SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea’s finance ministry said on Monday authorities would continue monitoring financial and foreign exchange markets.

South Korea’s parliament on Saturday voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol over his short-lived attempt to impose martial law, a move that had shocked the nation and its financial markets.

(Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

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