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The true cost of being cancelled: Stars face financial ruin after being embroiled in scandal – but who has a buffer of cash and assets to fall back on if they never work again?

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The true cost of being cancelled: Stars face financial ruin after being embroiled in scandal – but who has a buffer of cash and assets to fall back on if they never work again?

Cancel culture is now so virulent and dangerous that stars are even buying insurance to protect themselves from financial and reputational ruin.

And no wonder, because MailOnline can today reveal how stars such as Phillip Schofield are losing millions each year after being sent into the celebrity wilderness.

One star whose work has dried up amid allegations of sexual impropriety claims to be £10million worse off – with just £320 left in one business, down from £432,583.

Exclusive analysis of publicly-available company accounts reveal how stars’ earnings have fallen off a cliff since leaving the public eye due to various scandals.

Mr Schofield’s long career means that while his gigantic earnings from This Morning, Dancing on Ice and advertising deals have vanished, he still enjoys the cushion of millions of pounds in cash and assets including several properties.

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Gino D’Acampo has built up a nest egg of around £6million from his ITV work and book deals over the past five years – but with no new shows on the way his earnings will take a hit of around £1million-a-year if the work runs out.

And for fallen stars like Gregg Wallace and Wynne Evans, their financial future could be bleak unless they can get their own careers back on track, especially without the comfort blanket of a BBC salary.

Noel Clarke, who was cancelled in 2021 and is fighting for his reputation in the High Court in a high-profile libel case with The Guardian newspaper, faces near-complete financial ruin if he loses the case.

Phillip Schofield is losing an estimated £1.4 million-a-year since quitting his job as This Morning presenter in June 2023.

The star, 62, left the show having admitted to having an affair with a junior colleague and then quit ITV altogether, leaving behind a host of well-paid presenting gigs.

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He was earning £730,000 for the This Morning presenter role with Holly Willoughby but also picked up a reported £45,000 an episode for Dancing on Ice, which runs for 10 episodes per year.

Presenting other shows like British Soap Awards, BBC game show The Cube, and an ITV series called How To Spend It Well all added to his lucrative annual earnings.

Away from the screen, Schofield has built up a cache of valuable assets, including properties.

Schofield admitted to a relationship with a much younger male colleague (pictured centre) and having lied about it to bosses – as well as his loved ones

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Phillip and Stephanie Lowe married in 1993 and raised two daughters, Molly, right, and Ruby, left. His daughters are also huge supporters - Molly is his publicist

Phillip and Stephanie Lowe married in 1993 and raised two daughters, Molly, right, and Ruby, left. His daughters are also huge supporters – Molly is his publicist

He sold a flat he was said to have used to entertain his lover for £1million last year, making a loss of £250,000 on what he paid for it.

He also owns a mansion in Henley-on-Thames outright, which is thought to be worth at least £5million.

In 2020 he picked up £1.2million for a book deal for his autobiography Life’s What You Make It.

Accounts for his two companies show they had assets of £3million in May 2023, soon after he quit This Morning. 

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Fistral Productions, for his TV work, held £2.137million in the year he quit This Morning. His wife Stephanie Schofield is listed as a co-director.

He also has a company called Fistral Property, with assets of £900,000. Mrs Schofield is also a co-director.

Potential loss: £1.4 million-a-year 

Gino D’Acampo 

Gino D’Acampo has seen the value of his company rocket by an average of £979,000-a-year for the last five years and is now worth just under £6million.

But it means he could now stand to lose £1 million a year – or potentially more – if his career had continued to blossom at the same rate.

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He lives in a £1.25million house in Hertfordshire, with wife Jessica, who is a director of his companies and the mother of his three children.

In February, ITV pulled all Gino D’Acampo’s shows from its upcoming schedules.

The TV chef, 48, has been accused of ‘sexually inappropriate’ behaviour spanning 12 years while filming his hit food and travel programmes. He denies the claims.

Mr D’Acampo has faced accusations including using sexualised and aggressive language on TV sets including ‘Gino’s Italian Express’, ‘Gordon, Gino and Fred’s Road Trip’ ‘Gino’s Italy: Secrets of South’, ‘Like Mamma Used to Make’ and ‘Emission Impossible’. 

ITV then changed its schedules to ensure he will not appear on our screens. But many of his shows remain available on its ITVX streaming service. 

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The new series of Family Fortunes, the iconic family gameshow hosted by Gino, was due for broadcast in early 2025 but has also been canned by ITV. 

Gino is the host of Family Fortunes. Episodes have been pulled and the new series canned

Gino is the host of Family Fortunes. Episodes have been pulled and the new series canned

The Italian star (centre), 48, who regularly appeared on ITV's This Morning (pictured) when Schofield was a co-host, has been 'cancelled' following multiple allegations of sexually inappropriate and intimidating behaviour

Gino D’Acampo, pictured with Holly Willoughby and Phillip Schofield, honours his promise to cook naked on This Morning if they won at the 2011 NTA Awards. Gino has become known for stripping off on screen

Gino D'ACampo and wife Jessica

Gino D’ACampo and wife Jessica

Gino ‘said and did whatever he wanted’ while working for ITV – as his alleged victims insisted they were ‘too afraid’ to make complaints at the time. 

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Sources told MailOnline that ITV began to ease out Gino in the wake of the scandal that engulfed the BBC over MasterChef’s Gregg Wallace, especially after Phillip Schofield’s bitter exit from This Morning.

But amid questions about why they didn’t raise incidents spanning 12 years, most of the women told ITV News they were ‘too afraid’ to make complaints about D’Acampo because they were self-employed and feared being ostracised in TV.

After a bumper few years, Gino’s company has seen its value increase by between £500,000 and £2.06million each year between 2019 and 2024. 

It currently has £2million in cash in the bank. The company is now worth £4.9million.

MailOnline estimates that his total net worth is £5.7million.

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Potential loss: £979,000-a-year

Gregg Wallace 

Gregg Wallace had been earning an estimated £400,000-a-year from his Masterchef role, which, as is suspected, will now be lost if he does not return to TV.

The former MasterChef host, 60, stepped down from hosting the BBC show with Jon Torode in November after multiple complaints of inappropriate behaviour on set.

Before his big break, the star used all his Cockney charms to create an appealing TV persona – ‘the fat, bald bloke off the telly who likes pudding’, as he once styled himself.

But he initially made his living as a greengrocer, although market traders he once worked alongside have claimed they were the ones left counting the cost of his success. 

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With his six-figure BBC salary on hold, Gregg has a separate fitness business on the side called Showme.fit which is currently worth £108,663. 

There is also a new health and food business, whose accounts are not yet available.

Ex-MasterChef judge Gregg Wallace was spotted for the first time in February after not being out in public since November 28, 2024

Ex-MasterChef judge Gregg Wallace was spotted for the first time in February after not being out in public since November 28, 2024

Wallace co-hosted Masterchef for 17 years alongside John Torode (left)

Wallace co-hosted Masterchef for 17 years alongside John Torode (left) 

But he stepped back amid an investigation into his conduct over a period of 17 years

But he stepped back amid an investigation into his conduct over a period of 17 years

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He also has £32,000 held in his company Lobster Enterprises Ltd, where his TV money is paid into.

George Allan’s Greengrocers, the company Wallace founded in 1989, was built into a business with a £7.5million turnover.

But last year a former manager claimed Gregg left behind £1.5 million in debt – and a host of disgruntled ex-colleagues – when the firm went under in 2000. 

In his 2012 autobiography, Life on a Plate, Wallace acknowledged: ‘We were owed millions and we owed millions to wholesalers in the market’.

He also described how he ‘didn’t have to pick up all the bills personally’ after Gregg Allan’s failed, since it was a limited company, and hit back at the idea that fame had resulted in a loss of focus on his part.

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‘Many of the traders had joined forces and said they refused to employ me,’ wrote Wallace. 

‘It wasn’t fair but they blamed me for George Allan’s closure. They thought I’d got too fancy and big for my boots, being on telly now, and I let it all go to pot.

‘Nothing could’ve been further from the truth, though. It’s always the way: the last one out to turn off the lights, gets the blame.’

Gregg founded George Allan’s Greengrocers in 1989 and built the company into a business with a £7.5 million turnover

Gregg founded George Allan’s Greengrocers in 1989 and built the company into a business with a £7.5 million turnover

In 2014 Gregg was forced to close his Wallace and Co restaurant in Putney, South West London and sell its parent company Wallace Cafes.

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Since then he has relied on his £400,000-a-year MasterChef salary, which is now hanging in the balance.

Much of the earning pressure is now on his ShowMe.Fit app, which he advertises using his popular Instagram account. But it emerged last year that he borrowed £70,000 to keep it going.

It is currently worth £108,663, according to the accounts.

Lobster Enterprises Ltd, where his TV cash is paid into, paid tax suggesting it made a £400,000 profit. But it is worth £32,000, according to the latest accounts.

The shamed Masterchef star, 60, also set up Gregg Wallace.Health after he himself shed five stone, with the business offering recipes, advice from experts and frozen ready deliveries.

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The website reads: ‘Ready to transform your health and feel your best? – no risks, just results. Cancel anytime’.

However in recent weeks fans who signed up have furiously taken to review bible Trustpilot and claimed they are being incorrectly charged and are struggling to get their money back.

One customer fumed: ‘What a scam. I cancelled my membership when they changed apps. However [it] managed to do an auto renewal of my membership and deducted an annual subscription for a non functioning App. Getting no reply on their email for a refund. Customer service terrible and would not recommend them’.

Potential loss: £400,000-a-year 

Noel Clarke 

Noel Clarke said that his work completely dried up the moment The Guardian story about his alleged sexually inappropriate behaviour was published.

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In court papers he has detailed more than £10million in lost earnings since the article in April 2021.

One company he still runs called Astonishing Entertainment Limited, had assets of £432,583 in the 12 months up to the end of March 2021, when the allegation was made.

The same company now has just £320 according to the most recent accounts which cover the 12 months to the end of March 2024.

His company Unstoppable Film and Television Limited was bought by powerful TV production company ALL 3 Media, which was behind Fleabag, in 2018, but Clarke and business partner Jason Maza stood down in August 2021 after the Guardian claims were published. 

Noel Clarke arrives at the Royal Courts of Justice this week for his libel case against The Guardian

Noel Clarke arrives at the Royal Courts of Justice this week for his libel case against The Guardian

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The company had assets of £3.3million in the months before the bombshell newspaper claims.

In court papers Clarke catalogued the earnings he was losing as a consequence of being cancelled.

They were a Sky TV show Bulletproof, series 4, where he lost his fee for acting in 10 episodes – £585,000, his fee for writing two episodes – £90,000 – his fee for directing two episodes – £90,000 – and anticipated royalties of £250,000.

The Guardian article came out midway through an ITV series Viewpoint which was immediately taken off the air.

But a second series had already been commissioned meaning he lost his fee – £270,000, anticipated royalties of an estimated £200,000.

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Advanced plans for a Channel 5 TV show Highwater which would have begun shooting in winter 2021 meant he lost a producer bonus – in the region of £60,000.

A BBC TV show called Crongton was ‘greenlit’ was ditched and meant he would not get a producer bonus – in the region of £60,000.

Clarke is known for his role in Doctor Who as Mickey. He is pictured here alongside Billie Piper who played Rose Tyler

Clarke is known for his role in Doctor Who as Mickey. He is pictured here alongside Billie Piper who played Rose Tyler

Noel Clarke pictured as DC Martin Young in the ITV Series Viewpoint

Noel Clarke pictured as DC Martin Young in the ITV Series Viewpoint

A StudioCanal movie Something in the Water would have earned him a producer bonus in the region of £40,000.

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He would also have earned a minimum salary from his ex production company Unstoppable Film and Television of £1.25million over 10 years not including raises or bonuses.

He also said the projected approximate value of shares in Unstoppable Film and Television, which he says has now been ‘wiped out’, would have been £7million.

Potential loss: £10million 

Wynne Evans

Wynne Evans has almost £1million in cash and assets sitting in the bank, his latest accounts reveal.

But he has had to step away from the public eye after making a lewd joke that saw him have to leave the lucrative Strictly Come Dancing tour this year. 

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Evans, 53, who made a sick sexual comment about dancer and broadcaster Janette Manrara, has also been replaced in his BBC Radio Wales show. 

Wynne Evans Ltd handles the majority of his media earnings, including his Go Compare commercial work.

GoCompare has repeatedly refused to say whether they are going to sack Wynne from his role, which is believed to worth at least £200,000-a-year. 

Wynne Evans is said to earn £200,000-a-year as the face of Go Compare

Wynne Evans is said to earn £200,000-a-year as the face of Go Compare

The Go Compare star reportedly believes his reputation has been unfairly left 'in tatters' after he apologised for a vile remark aimed at tour host Janette Manrara, when footage emerged of the comment at the tour's press launch

The Go Compare star reportedly believes his reputation has been unfairly left ‘in tatters’ after he apologised for a vile remark aimed at tour host Janette Manrara, when footage emerged of the comment at the tour’s press launch

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Accounts for year to end of May 2024, filed in February show he has cash and assets of £734,830 – down from £761,798 the year before. 

He paid £12,186 in tax.

It does not include what he was paid to be on Strictly and its live tour before he was forced to walk away from.

He owns a flat in Croydon bought for £198,000 in 2014. It is now worth an estimated £288,000. 

His ex-wife Tanwen Evans owns a home in Cardiff bought for £465,000 in 2013, now worth £875,000.

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He has a management company which manages the flat in Croydon but it is dormant.

But he disbanded another company seven years ago and he is one of many director-board members of a Opera theatre called Grange Park Opera in West Horsley.

When the Go Compare and Strictly star discussed the house he moved into after his divorce he described it as ‘sad and derelict’, backing onto busy a railway track and saying it cost £500,000 to make it fit to live in.

Back in January, the opera singer, 53, stepped down from the Strictly Come Dancing live tour after coming under fire for making a vile remark aimed at host Janette Manrara [pictured with Katya Jones]

Wynne Evans ‘ lawyers have reportedly compiled a 30-page dossier to take to showdown talks with the BBC as he fights to keep his beloved radio job

Wynne previously revealed he hit 'rock bottom' at the end of his marriage to Welsh violinist Tanwen (seen together in 2011)

Wynne previously revealed he hit ‘rock bottom’ at the end of his marriage to Welsh violinist Tanwen (seen together in 2011) 

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But pictures unearthed by MailOnline revealed that the stunning Edwardian villa was apparently in immaculate condition, with well presented rooms and gardens, packed with period features and in good condition.

And at more than £700,000 it was more than four times the then average property price for Cardiff.

In a recent interview discussing his 2015 divorce, the opera singer was bemoaning the state of the house in Cardiff which he bought after splitting from Tanwen and moving away from his two children.

He claimed the five-bedroomed house was ‘all he could afford’ and said he had spent £500,000 on improvements.

The house with three bathrooms in the leafy area was described at the time he bought it, in 2016, was certainly dated, and needed some modernising, but according to Evans it had ‘boarded-up windows’ and his then teenage children had to sleep in tents in their bedrooms during early visits. 

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Potential loss: At least £200,000-a-year 

Finance

New changes to financial aid will be minor for UND students, bigger for loan borrowers in repayment

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New changes to financial aid will be minor for UND students, bigger for loan borrowers in repayment

GRAND FORKS — Student loan repayment options and federal PLUS loans are seeing the biggest changes with the implementation of the federal One Big Beautiful Bill Act, said the director of student finance at the University of North Dakota.

Matt Lukach said students will see minor changes, but most of the work to make the alterations will fall upon UND’s system.

“It’s going to create work on our end, though, because all these changes will be manual, so we will have a lot more work on the back end. But hopefully, our students won’t see too much of a change from past years,” he said.

On Wednesday, July 1, changes to federal student aid programs from the OBBBA went into effect. Of the changes, Luckach sees the removal of the SAVE (Saving on a Valuable Education) loan repayment plan, the removal of the Graduate PLUS Loan Program and the alteration to the Parent PLUS Loan Program and scheduled reductions for federal loans at the undergraduate level as the most significant.

For undergraduate loans, students previously could get their full federal loan even if they were not a full-time student taking 12 credits. Following the changes, loans will be pro-rated down, depending on how many credits a student is taking. Most of UND’s undergraduate students are full-time students, Lukach said. For part-time students, UND will work to make adjustments to loan offers early so they won’t be as affected if they need to find alternative funding. UND already makes schedule reductions for Pell Grant funding.

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A big change that may affect graduate students is the removal of the federal Graduate PLUS Loan Program. Some graduate students have used it to fund living expenses and pay for shortfalls while they finish their program. Graduate borrowers who have had a PLUS loan disbursed before July 1, 2026, while enrolled in a program, can continue to borrow for three academic years or the remainder of their program, whichever is less. Newer graduate students won’t be able to get the loans, and Lukach has seen movement in the private loan sector to balance this.

“We have had a lot of traffic, a lot of movement in the private loan sector in the last year to come up with options to help fill that gap of graduate PLUS loans,” he said. “The private educational loan industry is doing a pretty good job of coming up with some really comparable options to that loan.”

The Parent PLUS Loan Program won’t be going away, but it will be capped. Eligible parents can borrow a maximum of $20,000 per aid year per dependent student. In the past there was no cap, but Lukach said there wasn’t a high percentage of parents borrowing more than $20,000.

In Lukach’s opinion, the financial aid changes will be minor to current and incoming students. The bigger changes, he said, are in student loan repayment.

The SAVE plan, PAYE (Pay As You Earn) plan and the ICR (Income-Contingent Repayment) plan all are being phased out. Loan servicers are reaching out to current borrowers notifying them they have to choose different plans, though they can pay through the ICR plan until July 1, 2028. Their other options include a new tiered standard repayment plan and the new Repayment Assistance Plan.

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RAP allows borrowers to pay monthly payments of 1-10% of the borrower’s income based on their adjusted gross income, with a minimum monthly payment of $10.

“I honestly don’t know what the effects of these new plans will be yet, because we’ve not heard from anybody, and they just went into effect,” Lukach said. “I’m sure we’ll see some chatter in the next few months on that (RAP) to see if it looks good, bad, the same. It’s hard to tell if it will be a benefit or a detriment to those people who are on the SAVE plan. We’re real early in this.”

New borrowers who borrow loans on or after July 1, 2026, have the options of the new tiered repayment plan or RAP.

Same as any other year, Lukach offers students this advice: Make a financial plan and know what is needed.

UND also has a monthly payment plan to cover gaps between a student’s charges and their financial aid, something Lukach has noticed students use more over the years. Overall, he’s seeing students be more fiscally responsible.

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“It’s a good sign,” he said. “It means we have really high-quality students at the University of North Dakota, which I really, really love.”

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This new bill hopes to ‘put the brakes’ on financial fraud targeting older Americans

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This new bill hopes to ‘put the brakes’ on financial fraud targeting older Americans

A new bipartisan bill making its way through Congress aims to protect seniors and other vulnerable people from scams by allowing some financial institutions the ability to pause transaction requests while they investigate potential fraud.

The Financial Exploitation Prevention Act would give open-end investment companies, including mutual funds, the ability to pause redemption requests from people 65 and older or people with disabilities when the institution believes financial fraud or exploitation is at play.

“Financial exploitation is a huge problem in this country,” said Nina Kohn, an elder law expert at the Syracuse University College of Law. Artificial intelligence is also helping fraudsters become more sophisticated and making it harder for people to avoid scams, she added.

Financial abuse cost older victims nearly $2.4 billion in 2024, according to incidents reported to the Federal Trade Commission. The agency noted in its annual report that the estimate of total losses include “only a fraction” of older adults harmed by fraud due to underreporting.

Three people accused of being behind a major romance fraud scheme targeting older adults were indicted by the Department of Justice in May, part of a series of cases that have charged 11 others from the U.S. and Ghana with wire fraud and money laundering.

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“The concern is, in part, that individuals may lose their life savings,” Kohn said.

“So financial institutions and entities that are holding individuals’ money can be empowered to help put the brakes on scams by delaying disbursement to a suspected victim,” she added.

READ MORE: As losses from scams surge, Congress asks telecoms to do more to prevent them

The bill passed the House in a 414-2 vote last month, while a similar bill resides in the Senate, though it’s not clear if or when the banking committee under that chamber will consider the legislation.

The overwhelming support for this bill shows “there’s broad agreement that protecting seniors from financial exploitation shouldn’t be a partisan issue,” said Rep. Andrew Garbarino, R-N.Y., one of the bill’s co-sponsors, in an emailed statement to PBS News.

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The legislation gives these financial institutions additional tools to “recognize when something isn’t right and help stop financial abuse before the damage is done.”

Here’s what to know about the bill.

What would the bill do?

The bill would allow a financial institution that manages investments, such as mutual funds and some exchange-traded funds, to temporarily halt requests to access funds that it “reasonably believes” might be exploitative.

The bill focuses on requests from two specific groups:

  • Someone age 65 or older
  • Any adult the financial institution “reasonably believes has a mental or physical impairment that renders the individual unable to protect” their own interests.

It doesn’t require the institutions to carry out the pauses or investigate potential fraud. But there is a proposed framework for delays. The institution can put a hold on the request for up to 15 business days while companies notify a client-provided adult contact that the customer may be the victim of financial exploitation. There are steps an institution can take to extend the hold for another 10 days. A court, state regulator or another administrative authority could also extend the delay.

The bill does not apply to other financial institutions, like banks or credit unions. It does require the Securities and Exchange Commission to submit a report to Congress with recommendations on how to further reduce financial fraud targeting these adults within a year of enacting these measures.

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The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, or FINRA, already allows brokers and money managers to temporarily freeze requests that are from older adults who may be the victims of exploitation.About half the states also have laws on the books that allow banks and sometimes credit unions to do the same.

This federal legislation “fills a gap,” Kohn said, by covering investment funds that are self-managed.

How this bill could help

The Department of Justice identified more than 1 million victims of all forms of elder financial exploitation, fraud, neglect and abuse between July 2024 and June 2025. Offenders allegedly stole or attempted to steal $2.3 billion, according to the department’s latest annual report to Congress.

There are no national reporting standards for how often financial institutions detect exploitation, and when they do, how often they put holds on accounts, said Marti DeLiema, associate professor at the University of Minnesota School of Social Work.

WATCH: How human trafficking victims are forced to run ‘pig butchering’ investment scams

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But some state-level data does exist. In Minnesota, of the 286 cases referred for investigation in 2022, temporary holds were implemented in a quarter of them, according to a study DeLiema co-authored.

Half of the banks who responded to a 2024 survey from the American Bankers Association Foundation said they had delayed disbursements or refused or held transactions when they suspected exploitation.

And more than 85% of banks in states without hold laws said they would find them beneficial, the survey found.

“Financial institutions are seeing this stuff is happening. They want to help,” DeLiema said. Sometimes, a conversation from the bank or law enforcement is enough to pull the victim from the scam, she said.

Other times, that’s not enough.

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In those cases, temporary holds can be used as a “last resort” to keep the person and their money safe.

Concerns and questions about autonomy

For Kohn, it’s not clear whether the pauses proposed by the bill will prevent the exploitation entirely or just delay it. Putting holds on customers’ accounts also puts financial institutions at risk of degrading trust with their clients.

While 43% of banks in the ABA Foundation survey said they found state hold laws useful in preventing financial exploitation among older people, 45% also said customers reacted negatively to those holds. Nearly 17% said customers closed their accounts after a delay, and 2.4% said the hold has been challenged in court.

Another concern is someone’s self-determination. Allowing financial institutions to stop customers from accessing their own money may verge into limiting people’s ability to make choices about their lives and their own funds, Kohn said.

“The question is: Is that restriction on self-determination justified?” she said.

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Giving people the opportunity to make their own decisions, even bad ones, is called “dignity of risk,” a term often used in disability studies.

For example, people are allowed to take their retirement funds and spend it at a casino, DeLiema said, so “why would we stop them from participating in a scam?”

“The answer has to be: The people on the other end are criminally victimizing these individuals. They’re using deception, they’re lying,” she said.

That exploitation leads victims to believe they’re in a relationship with their scammer, or that they’re rescuing a grandchild, or that their money is being invested in cryptocurrencies, she said.

With the rise of deepfakes and other AI-driven technology being used in scams, “all this is going to get a lot worse,” she added.

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WATCH: How to recognize and block AI-powered scam attempts

It’s reasonable for policymakers to be concerned about exploitation among older adults in particular, because they tend to lose more money than younger adults and have less time to recover financially, Kohn said.

But she also worries that legislation based on age may perpetuate stereotypes against older people.

If financial holds are good policy, why limit their application, she said.

“I think that speaks to our willingness as a society to curtail the self-determination and financial independence of older adults and people with disabilities to a degree that we are not comfortable curtailing the self-determination and financial independence of other adults,” she said.

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From Love Island to Precious Metals, Prediction Markets Are Changing Finance | PYMNTS.com

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From Love Island to Precious Metals, Prediction Markets Are Changing Finance | PYMNTS.com

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on growth across new financial products.

The industry’s product menu already stretches from political elections and World Cup matches to weather events. It now includes reality television, with Kalshi’s first markets tied to “Love Island USA” helping to more than double its weekly active female user base during part of June, illustrating how easily an exchange can turn an existing online fandom into a new trading constituency.

Prediction markets aren’t done there. Kalshi is reportedly in advanced discussions with regulators about expanding its perpetual futures business beyond cryptocurrencies into gold, other metals, foreign exchange and energy. Polymarket, meanwhile, has reportedly filed applications that would help it offer margin trading to customers in the United States.

Prediction markets, it would seem, are outgrowing the category that made them famous. They are evolving from event-based content into a new distribution layer for a potential next-generation of retail derivatives.

See also: Robinhood’s Memecoin Boom Shows Crypto’s Retail Market Is No Joke

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Prediction Markets Are Becoming a Product Portfolio, Not a Betting Category

The event contract services business is evolving from predicting discrete events to trading continuous exposure to economically important assets. That transition is occurring just as the industry’s regulatory position is becoming more complicated.

A federal judge this week rejected Kalshi’s attempt to prevent New York from applying state gambling laws to its sports contracts. Last month, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and its chairman, Michael Selig, challenging a decision to let Kalshi and crypto exchange Coinbase list perpetual futures.

The result is a market in which product demand may be the easy part. The harder question is whether prediction platforms can develop a compliance system broad enough to support everything from television finales to leveraged commodity trades.

The Love Island contracts, for example, expose the prediction market category’s fundamental surveillance problem. Television episodes are produced before they are broadcast, meaning cast members, production staff, editors and others can possess information unavailable to the public. Similar informational asymmetries arise around economic announcements, court decisions, corporate events and government actions. The more subjects a platform makes tradable, the more types of potential insiders it must identify.

Goldman Sachs prohibited employees from participating in financial and political event contracts that could create actual or perceived conflicts involving the bank, its clients or the financial industry, particularly when workers could possess confidential corporate or macroeconomic information.

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The Senate unanimously adopted a rule in April prohibiting senators, staff and officers from participating in prediction markets. Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs followed this month with an executive order prohibiting state executive branch employees from using nonpublic government information for prediction market profits.

Read also: Prediction Markets Turn Uncertainty Into a Business Model

A Short History of Prediction Market Products and U.S. Regulation

Despite all the action, prediction markets began as relatively constrained experiments in information aggregation. The CFTC said market operators have sought agency guidance since the early 1990s, and the first prediction market was designated as a federally regulated contract market in 2004. The central idea was that putting money behind a forecast could aggregate dispersed information more effectively than polls, surveys or expert opinion.

The model remained small partly because regulators treated event contracts as exceptional products. Contracts tied to economic indicators, elections or entertainment did not fit comfortably within either traditional futures regulation or state gambling frameworks.

Polymarket demonstrated the potential and limitations of operating outside that system. In 2022, the CFTC ordered the company to pay a $1.4 million penalty and wind down markets that violated federal derivatives laws. Polymarket later returned to the U.S. by acquiring federally licensed exchange and clearing infrastructure, creating a regulated domestic operation that is separate from its crypto-based international platform.

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PYMNTS reported in September that when the CFTC issued a no-action letter regarding event contracts in response to a request from two businesses owned by Polymarket, it in essence gave Polymarket a regulatory green light to re-enter the U.S. market.

The industry’s short history, in other words, is not primarily a progression from one betting topic to another. It is a progression from restricted forecasting experiment to full-scale exchange infrastructure. That direction of travel appears to be continuing.

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