Connect with us

Finance

The S&P 500 looks risky, but I’m still buying this stock

Published

on

The S&P 500 looks risky, but I’m still buying this stock

Image source: Getty Images

Billionaire Warren Buffett’s advice for most investors has been to buy a low-cost fund that tracks the S&P 500. But that looks like a risky proposition to me right now.

The index is heavily concentrated around a few very similar companies. And the rest of the US economy doesn’t give me much encouragement either.

Concentration

Overall, the S&P 500’s done very well in recent years. But not every company’s done equally well — a handful of strong performers have offset much weaker results elsewhere.

Advertisement

For example, Microsoft’s revenues grew by around 15% in 2025, while Kraft Heinz saw a 2.5% decline in sales. For the index as a whole though, the net effect’s positive.

Microsoft’s sales increased by $36bn, while the drop at Kraft Heinz was less than $1bn. In other words, growth at bigger firms offsets a lot of smaller businesses going backwards.

The trouble is, it also creates risk. If at business like Microsoft falters for any reason, I don’t think there are going to be enough Kraft Heinz-like firms to offset this. 

The US economy

Something similar is true of the US economy. Consumer spending – which accounts for around 70% of US GDP – looks resilient, but there’s more going on beneath the surface.

In reality, the overall resilience is being driven by strong contributions from the most well-off in society. And just like the index, this has the power to cover a lot of weakness elsewhere. 

Advertisement

A a result, the same risk emerges. If anything causes the wealthiest households in the US to rethink their consumption levels, this is unlikely to be offset by increased spending elsewhere.

As a result, I’m wary of the idea that investing in an S&P 500 fund is a good idea right now. But I do think there are potential opportunities within the index.

Insurance

One stock I’ve been buying recently is Brown & Brown (NYSE:BRO). The stock’s 37% off its 52-week highs, but I think there are some strong signs for the underlying business.

The insurance broker’s been dealing with two major issues recently: a weak market for insurers and integration costs after a large acquisition weighs on margins.

Both are genuine challenges, but I expect they will prove to be temporary. So I think the two of them combining to push the stock to unusually low levels could be a huge opportunity.

Advertisement

Brown & Brown aims to combine the advantages of local knowledge with the economic benefits of scale. In an industry I think will be durable, that’s a powerful combination.

Investing strategy

One of the things I want from my Stocks and Shares ISA is diversification. And that’s why I’m unwilling to just ignore US stocks even when the S&P 500 as a whole looks risky.

I think Brown & Brown could be set to benefit from a double boost. A more helpful market for insurers could push sales higher while lower integration costs cause margins to expand.

The company’s long-term competitive position also looks strong to me. That’s why it’s still on my ‘to-buy’ list as I look for stocks to scoop up during a tricky time for the S&P 500 and the US economy.

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Finance

Crypto bill hits new impasse, raising doubts over its future

Published

on

Crypto bill hits new impasse, raising doubts over its future
Talks on landmark crypto legislation have hit a new impasse after banks said they could not back a compromise pushed by the White House, a development that cast doubt on whether the bill will pass this year and sparked criticism from President Donald Trump ​who accused lenders of trying to undermine it.
Continue Reading

Finance

Stamford Finance Students Wow Judges, Take Home Trophy in Regional CFA Competition – UConn Today

Published

on

Stamford Finance Students Wow Judges, Take Home Trophy in Regional CFA Competition – UConn Today

A tenacious team of finance majors, who sacrificed most of their winter break to prepare for the CFA Institute Research Challenge, took first place in that regional competition last week.

Students Hunter Baillargeon, Dylan Fischetto, Richard Opper, Philip Ochocinski and Rushit Chauhan were tasked with researching and analyzing a major utility company, and then producing a 10-page report about whether to buy, hold, or sell its stock. They chose to sell.

One of the CFA judges said both the team’s report and presentation were among the best he had seen in many years.

“As a team, we were thrilled our hard work paid off and our many hours of work allowed us to achieve what we did,’’ Baillargeon said. “What we accomplished couldn’t have been done without working with such a cohesive and collective unit.’’

“From a technical perspective, I realize how valuable true analysis is and the importance of looking where others don’t for a differentiated approach,’’ Baillargeon said.

Advertisement

The first round of competition featured 24 college teams from the Stamford-Hartford-Providence region. The Stamford team, composed of seniors all of whom all participate in UConn’s Student Managed Fund program, received its first-place award Feb. 26 in a ceremony in Hartford. The team will advance to the East Coast competition later this month.

Stamford Finance Program is Robust

“The Stamford team’s advancement in this competition reflects not only the students’ exceptional talent and work ethic, but also the rigor and applied focus of the UConn finance curriculum,’’ said professor Yiming Qian, head of the Finance Department.

“Our Stamford campus hosts approximately 200 financial management majors. The Stamford program is a vital part of the School and continues to demonstrate outstanding strength,” she said.

Professors Steve Wilson and Jeff Bianchi, who combined have 75 years of experience in the investment industry, were the team’s advisers and were supported by academic director Katherine Pancak.

Wilson said the task of analyzing a utility is particularly complex because of the company’s structure and the regulatory environment in which it operates.

Advertisement

“I believe the Stamford team stood out because of the depth of their research, and willingness to take a bold stand, including the decision to ‘go out on a limb’ and recommend selling the stock,’’ he said. “They didn’t ‘play it safe.’’’

“This clean-sweep was a true team effort. They were tireless throughout, and sleepless too often, but they never wavered from their desire to always dig deeper and uncover any information that would strengthen our investment case,’’ he said. “What a phenomenal job they did!’’

Competition in Hong Kong Is Ultimate Goal

The Stamford team will compete against Loyola, Canisius, Sacred Heart; Seton Hall, Villanova, St. Michaels, Western New England, University of Maine, Fordham and Penn State next. In total, some 8,000 students are expected to participate in various competitions worldwide, culminating in a championship round in Hong Kong in May.

Wilson said the financial industry is always welcoming of new talent. And when one of the judges told him that the Stamford team produced some of the best work that he’d seen in years, Wilson felt tremendous pride for the students.

“Finance is an open playing field. In investments, the best idea wins,’’ he said.

Advertisement

Baillargeon said he will always appreciate the whole team’s dedication.

“What I’ll remember most is the help of our advisers and our cohesive, close-knit team where everyone pulled their weight,’’ Baillargeon said. “We put in long hours, did a tremendous amount of research, and collaborated well together. I hope when I enter the workforce I get to work with a team as committed as this one is.’’

Continue Reading

Finance

Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers – Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath

Published

on

Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers – Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath



Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers – Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath
















Advertisement





Advertisement







Advertisement

Advertisement

Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers


Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers


1024
888



Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath







Advertisement



Advertisement

Continue Reading

Trending