Finance

The Historian’s Notebook: The Nobel Laureate Who Pioneered Modern Behavioral Finance at Yale

Published

1 year ago

November 12, 2024

The Historian’s Notebook: The Nobel Laureate Who Pioneered Modern Behavioral Finance at Yale

The Historian’s Notebook: 50 Years of Business & Society is a blog series created in preparation for the 50th anniversary of Yale SOM in September 2026. The series is written by Yale SOM’s resident historian, Michelle Spinelli. Reach out if you have an idea for a blog post, memories or photos to share, or an inquiry about SOM history.

One Thursday in January 2014, Yale SOM students, faculty, and staff packed Zhang Auditorium in the newly opened Edward P. Evans Hall to listen to Robert Shiller, now the Sterling Professor Emeritus of Economics, reprise his 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, “Speculative Asset Prices.” Nicholas Barberis, the Stephen and Camille Schramm Professor of Finance at SOM, introduced Shiller as being responsible for “some of the most innovative work of any economist in his generation.”

Just a few weeks prior, Shiller had accepted the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences along with Eugene F. Fama and Lars Peter Hansen for research that showed that while the price of stocks and other assets cannot be predicted accurately in the very short term, more accurate predictions can be made over a period of years.

Shiller’s research, widely viewed as the starting point for modern behavioral finance, examined stock prices over the previous century and concluded that they were too volatile to be explained only by investors rationally forecasting future dividends. Instead, Shiller argued, irrational thinking, like bias and emotion, played a role. Shiller challenged the efficient market hypothesis, which holds that securities prices properly reflect all available information. The argument “got me in a lot of trouble,” Shiller later remarked, because many thought it oversimplified the place of dividends in the stock market.

Shiller’s work has helped to explain market volatility and the speculative bubbles that can be fueled by mass misinformation and herd instinct. He predicted the collapse of both the dot-com bubble and the U.S. subprime housing bubble. Shiller has also written syndicated articles and books for popular audiences, including Irrational Exuberance, an analysis and explication of speculative bubbles that focuses on real estate and the stock market, and Animal Spirits, an exploration of the government’s role in restoring confidence in the economy, which he co-authored with fellow Nobel laureate George Akerlof.

The audience at Zhang Auditorium was particularly eager to hear Shiller’s talk because of his central role in making Yale SOM a leader in behavioral finance research—the field he pioneered while at Yale. He was instrumental, for example, in facilitating a 2004 grant of $1.6 million from Yale College alum Andrew Redleaf and his company, Whitebox Advisors; the grant enabled the International Center for Finance to engage in more behavioral finance research initiatives, expand outreach, and establish the Yale Summer School in Behavioral Finance, now a widely known program.

Shiller has also attracted faculty with interest in behavioral finance to the school, including Kelly Shue, James Choi, and Barberis, who said he came to SOM in 2004 “to continue the tradition of the work that Shiller began.”

With Shiller’s support and encouragement, Barberis launched the Yale Summer School in Behavioral Finance in 2009. The one-week intensive course of study is offered every two years and educates PhD students from across the globe on path-breaking research. The summer school has now hosted close to 400 students, many of whom have become prominent behavioral finance researchers in their own right.

Shiller retired in 2022, but behavioral finance remains a core area of research and exploration at the school. “Inspired by Bob’s example, SOM faculty and graduate students have been producing remarkable behavioral finance research that has made Yale one of the leading centers, if not the leading center, for innovation in this field,” Barberis says.

Finance

Reilly Barnes Returns to Little League® as Purchasing/Finance Assistant

Published

9 hours ago

April 21, 2026

Press Room

Reilly Barnes Returns to Little League® as Purchasing/Finance Assistant

Little League® International has announced that Reilly Barnes accepted a new role as Purchasing/Finance Assistant, effective April 6, 2026. Barnes transitions from a temporary Purchasing Assistant to this full-time position to assist in the year-round demands of purchasing for the organization, as well as the region and Little League Baseball and Softball World Series tournaments.

“We are thrilled to welcome back Reilly to our team as a full-time Purchasing/Finance Assistant. Reilly’s prior experience, time management, and attention to detail make him an invaluable asset to the purchasing team,” said Nancy Grove, Little League Materials Management Director. “We look forward to the positive contributions he will have on our organization.”

In this role, Barnes will be responsible for processing purchase requisitions, coordinating souvenir products, and tracking order fulfillment. He will also assist with evaluating suppliers, reviewing product quality, and negotiating contracts for effective operations.

After most recently working as a Logistician Analyst at Precision Air in Charleston, South Carolina, Barnes, a Williamsport native, returns after honing his skills in the fast-paced environment. Prior to his time at Precision Air, Barnes served as a Procurement Specialist at The Medical University of South Carolina, where his expertise and knowledge were instrumental in supporting both education and healthcare needs.

“I am thrilled to return to Little League in this full-time role,” said Barnes. “Coming back to my hometown and having the opportunity to work for an organization that has played such a special part of my upbringing means a lot. I can’t wait begin this new opportunity.”

Barnes graduated from the University of Pittsburgh in 2022 with a B.A. in Supply Chain Management, Finance, and Business Analytics.

Finance

Why this sleepy Swiss town has become a ‘bolt-hole’ for the Gulf elite

Published

22 hours ago

April 20, 2026

Press Room

Why this sleepy Swiss town has become a ‘bolt-hole’ for the Gulf elite

As conflict continues to destabilise the Middle East, the Gulf States elite are seeking solace in European alternatives that offer comparable financial benefits with a far lower risk of war on the doorstep. One such destination is the small Swiss town of Zug, which is becoming a “bolt-hole” for Gulf-based wealth, said the Financial Times.

‘Swiss Monaco’

Switzerland’s reputation as a magnet for the world’s financial elite is nothing new. In 2025, the country recorded the “densest concentration of millionaires” with an estimated 146 per 1,000 adults last year, said The Times. Now home to around 135,000 people, Zug’s canton – also named Zug – used to be the “poorest corner of Switzerland” until it lowered its tax rates in the 1950s. “Now it has corporate tax rates of 16.2% compared with 40% in the US and 33.3% in France.”

“In almost all ways Zug is unremarkable”, with its traditional Swiss architecture and cobbled waterfront lanes. But if its “Alpine lake water is clear”, the financial scene is more “murky”. Many credit Marc Rich and Pincus “Pinky” Green, founders of metals and minerals trading firm Glencore, with the transformation of Zug from a “Swiss backwater” to its status as the “Swiss Monaco”. The multinational is headquartered just outside Zug, and has made the town a “global powerhouse for trading crude and refined oil products”. It should be “no surprise” that the “1% of the world’s 1%” are taking shelter there, and at the same time, hoping to still “keep a hand in the oil business”.

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“Industry estimates suggest that tens of billions of dollars could flow into Switzerland depending on how the current conflict evolves,” said the Outbound Investment Group. The “immediate trigger” for the “surge in interest” from Gulf-based investors is the war in the Middle East. However, Switzerland’s underlying appeal is its unwavering “Swissness”: “political neutrality”, “strong legal frameworks”, and reputation for wealth preservation. It’s a safe bet with no sign of slowing.

‘Availability tightening’

There are some drawbacks, said the FT. For “would-be arrivals”, the appeal of the region for Middle Eastern residents comes with “practical constraints”. Those outside the EU “face a higher bar”. Usually, the condition of residency is “tied” to employment or company formation. For the “very wealthy”, there is the added option of “negotiated lump-sum taxation agreements with cantonal authorities” that allow individuals to “pay a flat annual tax based on living expenses rather than global income”.

Even if they are holders of EU passports, the “main bottleneck” is the availability of property. Competition is “intense” and “rental supply is extremely limited, with properties often snapped up within days”. With Zug’s “availability tightening”, other cantons in the region with similar tax arrangements could benefit, such as Lugano, an Italian-speaking city in the Ticino region.

The uncertainty of the duration of the conflict is one of the most pressing concerns, said Bloomberg. The recent breakdown of ceasefire talks risks “forcing a reckoning for the professional and expat classes considering options after putting down roots in the Middle East”.

The short-term benefits of physical safety from leaving the Gulf are clear, but changing tax residency “takes time” and practicalities such as finding schools and “conforming to national requirements such as opening local bank accounts” is often “complicated and time-consuming”. The region’s ultra-wealthy are facing “uncomfortable decisions on whether to make the move permanent, especially with the end of the school year in sight”.

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Finance

How much will Social Security go up next year? See latest forecast

Published

1 day ago

April 20, 2026

Press Room

How much will Social Security go up next year? See latest forecast

Before Social Security payments are posted this week, many retirees are looking ahead at the potential Cost of Living Adjustment for 2027 with an advocacy group predicting a similar increase to 2026.

On April 10, The Senior Citizens League — a nongovernmental advocacy group for seniors — released its monthly COLA forecast for 2027, saying data showed a 2.8% increase is likely.

“Over the last seven weeks, crude oil prices have soared, and fuel prices have followed suit. Consumers are getting pinched at the pump as gas prices soar, while businesses are paying more for transportation and/or production costs. This energy price shock is beginning to show up in the monthly U.S. inflation report, and it’s having a tangible impact on 2027 COLA forecasts,” The Motley Fool, a financial and investing advice company, and USA TODAY content partner, reported on April 18.

The official announcement will come in October, as it’s based on third-quarter inflation data.

According to Consumer Price Index data published last week, the annual inflation rate reached a two-year high of 3.3%, up 0.9% over the last month. This is largely due to soaring oil prices caused by the war in Iran.

Social Security payments are always scheduled on Wednesdays, with the final wave of this month scheduled for April 22, according to the Social Security Administration. The schedule is based on the birth dates of the recipients — retired, disabled workers or survivors.

Here’s who will get a Social Security check this week and more on the 2027 COLA forecast:

When is the final Social Security in April 2026?

Social Security benefits are sent out based on the recipients’ birth dates. Wednesday, April 22, is the final wave of payments for those with birth dates between the 21st and the 31st of April.

What is the 2027 COLA forecast?

The 2027 COLA increase is forecast to be 2.8% due to continuing inflation prices, according to The Senior Citizens League’s April 10 press release. If the SSA approves that rate of increase, average payment for retired workers would go up by $56 per month in January 2027.

The SCL releases a COLA prediction each month based on the Consumer Price Index, Federal Reserve interest rate and the National Unemployment rate from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Beneficiaries who want to stay updated with the monthly predictions may visit the SCL’s “COLA Watch” webpage that includes the forecast, calculations, historical trends and more.

The official COLA increase for 2027 will be announced in October 2026.

What were the big Social Security changes in 2026?

At the beginning of 2026 recipients received a 2.8% COLA for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments, according to the SSA’s COLA Fact Sheet and American Association of Retired Persons, increasing payments about $56 per month.

Here are more details on the 2026 COLA increase, per the SSA:

The maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax increased to $184,500.
The earnings limit for workers who are younger than full retirement age (67 years old) increased to $24,480. (There will be a $1 deduction for each $2 earned over $24,480.)
The earnings limit for people reaching their full retirement age in 2026 increased to $65,160. (There will be a $1 deduction for each $3 earned over $65,160, until the month the worker turns full retirement age.)
There is no limit on earnings for workers who are at full retirement age or older for the entire year.

What should I do if I don’t get my Social Security payment?

According to the SSA, if you don’t receive your payment on the scheduled date, wait three days additional days, then call their office.

Where are the Social Security offices in Michigan?

There are 48 offices in Michigan, and to find an office near you, recipients may use the office locator via the Social Security’s website by entering your zip code for office hours, numbers, available services and more.

How can I replace my Social Security card?

The personal account, “my Social Security” allows recipients to manage their personal records, including a request for a replacement Social Security card and benefit statements for taxes and more. New accounts are created using ID.me or Login.gov as a multifactor authentication.