Finance
Rise Of Family Offices: Trillion-Dollar Shadows In Global Finance
![Rise Of Family Offices: Trillion-Dollar Shadows In Global Finance Rise Of Family Offices: Trillion-Dollar Shadows In Global Finance](https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/66dee19d7651b7f9cdb1cf38/0x0.jpg?format=jpg&height=900&width=1600&fit=bounds)
LONDON, ENGLAND – JANUARY 20: City workers walk past the Lloyds building in the financial district, … [+]
While hedge funds and private equity firms grab headlines, family offices—the private wealth management firms serving ultra-high-net-worth families—are quietly revolutionizing the financial landscape. With trillions of dollars under management and the freedom to operate beyond the glare of public scrutiny, these silent titans are reshaping markets and economies on a scale that few fully appreciate.
The Rise of the Family Office
Family offices have experienced explosive growth in recent years. According to a recent report by Deloitte Private, the number of single-family offices worldwide is expected to surge from 8,030 in 2024 to a staggering 10,720 by 2030—a remarkable 75% increase in just six years. Even more impressive is the projected growth in assets under management (AUM). Family offices currently manage an estimated $3.1 trillion, a figure set to skyrocket to $5.4 trillion by 2030—a 73% increase.
“The growth has been explosive,” says Rebecca Gooch, global head of insights for Deloitte Private. “It’s really the past decade that has seen an acceleration in growth in family offices.”
This rapid expansion is reshaping the wealth management industry and creating a powerful new force in the financial landscape. Family offices are projected to surpass hedge funds in terms of assets under management in the coming years, becoming the new darlings of fundraising. Venture capital firms, private equity interests, and private companies are all vying for a slice of this growing pie.
Total estimated family wealth stands at US$5.5 trillion and is expected to grow 73% by 2030 to … [+]
The Power of Discretion
Unlike their more visible counterparts in the hedge fund and private equity world, family offices operate with a level of discretion that borders on invisibility. They have no obligation to report earnings, no pressure to justify fees, and no need to anxiety over quarterly performance metrics. This freedom from public scrutiny allows family offices to make bold, long-term investment decisions that can have far-reaching consequences for global markets.
Eric Johnson, Deloitte’s private wealth leader and family office tax leader, explains the appeal: “There are some organizations that don’t have products to pitch, but a lot of them do. And, lo and behold, if you engage them, what you’re going to have to buy is kind of what they’re selling, which might not be the best for the family.”
This laser focus on the family’s best interests, unencumbered by the need to sell products or satisfy external investors, gives family offices a unique edge in the market.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
The sheer scale of wealth managed by family offices is staggering. Deloitte’s report reveals that the total wealth held by families with family offices is expected to reach an eye-watering $9.5 trillion by 2030, more than doubling over the decade. To put this in perspective, the entire hedge fund industry managed approximately $4.3 trillion in assets as of Q2 2023, according to Hedge Fund Research.
North America is leading the charge in this family office revolution. The region’s 3,180 single-family offices are expected to grow to 4,190 by 2030, accounting for about 40% of the world’s total. The total wealth held by families with family offices in North America has more than doubled since 2019, reaching $2.4 trillion. By 2030, this figure is projected to hit $4 trillion.
A New Investment Paradigm
Family offices are not just growing in size; they’re also revolutionizing how ultra-high-net-worth individuals approach investing. Gone are the days of staid 60-40 stock and bond portfolios. Today’s family offices are aggressively moving into alternative assets, including private equity, venture capital, real estate, and private credit.
According to the J.P. Morgan Private Bank Global Family Office Report, family offices now allocate a whopping 46% of their total portfolio to alternative investments. The largest chunk of this—19%—goes to private equity. But family offices aren’t content with just investing in funds; they’re increasingly doing direct deals, investing directly in private companies.
A survey by BNY Wealth found that 62% of family offices made at least six direct investments last year, and 71% plan to make the same number of direct deals this year. This shift towards direct investing is sending shockwaves through the private equity and venture capital industries, as family offices become formidable competitors for deals.
The Long Game
One of the key advantages family offices have over traditional investment firms is their ability to take a long-term view. Without the pressure of quarterly earnings reports or the need to return capital to outside investors, family offices can hold investments for decades or even generations.
“Family offices can be very solid, strong partners to invest with,” notes Rebecca Gooch. “I think a lot of the private companies are very grateful for their long-term patient capital and their dedication to this space.”
This long-term perspective allows family offices to weather market volatility and capitalize on opportunities that might be too risky or illiquid for other investors. It also makes them attractive partners for private companies looking for stable, committed investors.
The Global Footprint
The influence of family offices extends far beyond North America. Asia Pacific has emerged as a hotbed of family office activity, with 2,290 family offices today—surpassing Europe’s 2,020. By 2030, Asia Pacific is expected to host 3,200 family offices, reflecting the rapid wealth creation in the region.
This global expansion is not just about numbers; it’s about diversification and opportunity. Over a quarter (28%) of family offices now have more than one branch, and 12% plan to establish another. North America and Asia Pacific are the most attractive destinations, with 34% of family offices targeting each of these regions.
The Next Generation
As wealth transfers to the next generation, family offices are evolving to meet new demands and priorities. Women now serve as the principals of 15% of family offices worldwide, signaling a shift in leadership and potentially in investment strategies.
The average age of family office principals is 68, and 4 in 10 family offices will go through a succession process in the next decade. This generational shift is likely to bring new perspectives on issues like sustainable investing, technology, and global diversification.
The Future of Finance
As family offices continue to grow in size and sophistication, their impact on global finance is only set to increase. A majority of industry insiders expect the number of family offices worldwide to expand (73%), become more institutionalized and professionally managed (66%), and adopt greater asset class and geographic investment portfolio diversification (55%).
Wolfe Tone, Deloitte Private Global leader at Deloitte Global, sums up the situation: “As they continue to navigate ongoing economic challenges and geopolitical uncertainty, family offices are expanding their services, maturing their structures, focusing on their talent strategies, and carefully managing their investments to ensure sophisticated and efficient operations for the future.”
The Bottom Line
While hedge funds and private equity firms may capture more headlines, family offices are the true titans reshaping global finance. With trillions in assets, a long-term perspective, and the freedom to operate away from public scrutiny, these institutions wield enormous influence over markets and economies.
As their assets continue to grow and their strategies evolve, family offices are poised to play an even more significant role in shaping the future of global finance. For investors, policymakers, and financial professionals, understanding the power and potential of family offices is no longer optional—it’s essential.
In a world where financial power is increasingly concentrated, family offices stand as the silent giants, moving markets and reshaping economies on their own terms. As we look to the future of global finance, it’s clear that the real action isn’t in the spotlight—it’s in the shadows, where family offices quietly pull the strings of the world economy.
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Finance
Young Aussie breaks taboo to reveal savings account balance: ‘Not always easy’
A young Aussie saving up for her first home has shared exactly how much money she has in her bank account. Talking about money and how much you earn or have in savings has long been considered taboo, but more and more Aussies are now breaking the stigma.
Natalie Hale has been openly sharing her finances online and bringing people along on her journey to save up for her first home. The 23-year-old told Yahoo Finance she wanted to learn about budgeting and managing money but struggled to find relatable content online.
“I decided to start openly sharing my finances online because there wasn’t a lot of representation for young people learning how to budget and how to manage money when I was starting my journey,” she said.
“I wanted to learn more but I couldn’t really find anything relatable so I created it.”
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In a recent TikTok video, Hale shared she had around $40,000 in her savings account spread across multiple savings accounts. That included $31,064 saved up for a home deposit, $1,071 for emergency expenses, $1,150 for car expenses and $1,250 for business expenses.
Hale, who works as an independent disability support worker in Queensland’s Fraser Coast, said she was currently trying to put half of her income towards saving up for her first home and the rest towards other expenses that were important to her.
Her income fluctuates but she revealed she earned six figures last financial year. For example, in the last few months, she made $2,330 in one week and $5,521 in another.
“I’m currently prioritising putting as much as I can into my house, I keep my expenses small, I don’t have many subscriptions which is the number one killer of young people’s bank accounts and I don’t go out on weekends,” Hale said.
“Making small changes where I can because every bit of money adds up. It’s not always easy but it’s important to take the steps now while I’m young so future me doesn’t have to worry.”
After meeting with a mortgage broker, Hale aimed to save a $38,000 deposit for a home.
She noted there were a range of government grants available to first-home buyers that could also help towards her goal.
‘Start simple’: Budgeting tips
Hale has more than 20 savings accounts with her bank, ANZ Plus, which she uses to allocate her cash towards different specific expenses and goals.
“I currently budget my money by dividing the bill by my pay cycle and allocating it to that savings jar in my ANZ plus account,” she told Yahoo Finance.
Hale recommended other Aussies “start simple” and break their budget down in a way that works for their lifestyle.
“Ultimately saving for something big comes with some sacrifices so it’s just deciding what you can sacrifice and where you can earn some extra money, I do affiliate marketing and online surveys to make some extra money,” she said.
“I have a ‘round up’ feature on my bank account so every time I spend it rounds it up to my savings account and keep my money in a high-interest account so my money works for me.”
While Hale said she received a few negative comments online, she said the positive comments made “it all worth it”.
How much does an average Australian have in savings?
The average Australian has $37,915 in savings, according to Finder data.
Men have more savings than women, with an average of $47,398 in savings compared to $27,492 for women.
Savings also vary greatly depending on age, with Gen X having the most in savings at $57,794, while Gen Z had the least at $28,372.
It’s important to note these are just averages. Finder also found a staggering 47 per cent of Aussies could only survive off their savings for one month or less, with just 22 per cent confident they could last six months or more.
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Finance
3 Things Crypto Investors Need To Know About World Liberty Financial
![3 Things Crypto Investors Need To Know About World Liberty Financial 3 Things Crypto Investors Need To Know About World Liberty Financial](https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/61b75aacdf113084810d569a/0x0.jpg?format=jpg&crop=2463,1385,x0,y125,safe&height=900&width=1600&fit=bounds)
Crypto continues to make inroads into the U.S. Presidential race
With crypto continuing to remain a front-and-center issue in U.S. political circles, including the nomination of a pro-crypto challenger to Senator Elizabeth Warren, it should come as no surprise that policymakers are wading more directly into the sector. Specifically, former President (and current candidate) Donald Trump has been making public and forceful forays to the crypto sector, seemingly a reflection of the massive spending that the crypto industry has invested into current races. The latest example of this is the coming launch of World Liberty Financial, a crypto project founded, supported, and endorsed by the current Presidential candidate.
While specifics remain somewhat difficult to pin down, with some versions the whitepaper becoming available, there is still plenty to digest and work through as the project comes to light. As with most thing involving former President Trump, however, there has been some controversy and drama around the launch of the project. Specifically the X account of Laura Trump, daughter in-law of the former President and Republican National Committee co-chair, appeared to be hacked and disseminated false information regarding the launch of the project as well as malicious links to a coin claiming to the be the official coin of the project. Setting aside these hiccups and drama, however, it is indicative of the strength inf the crypto sector that a Presidential candidate from a major U.S. political party is launching a project in the middle of a campaign.
Let’s take a look at items crypto investors should keep in mind as the project continues to move forward to launch.
Security Should Be A Top Concern
Any project that is led by such as high-profile figure, such as the former President, is bound to attract substantial amounts of attention from investors and policymakers, but also criminal actors looking to exploit weaknesses in the underlying infrastructure and cybersecurity. Analysis of the components and versions of the whitepaper that have been leaked to date indicate that the technical underpinnings of World Liberty Financial are very similar to those that supported Dough Finance. In July 2024 Dough Finance was hacked via exploiting flash loan transactions focusing on vulnerable smart contracts. Although the founding team, including members of the Trump family as well as the technical team, have emphasized that security will be front-and-center for this venture, the technical similarities should be cause for further examination.
Additionally the fact that details and pieces of information are being continuously leaked prior to the project launch leaves the team and project itself open to the array of hacking and impersonation scams that have already occurred.
Centralization Will Be Front And Center
Mirroring many of the crypto products and services that have deployed since 2022 a defining characteristic of World Liberty Financial, according to the whitepaper that has been circulated, is that 70% of WLFI – the governance token – will be held by the founders, team, and service providers. Centralization and this level of concentrated control is, of course, the opposite of the original ideas behind the crypto movement, but do track with the centralization that has occurred in the staking, stablecoin, and ETF slices of the crypto landscape. For context, Ethereum’s Genesis block reserves a combined 16.6% of ether for the Ethereum Foundation and early contributors, Cardano founders retained 20% of ADA and Satoshi Nakamoto holds approximately 5% of total bitcoin supply.
While the final whitepaper and tokenomics are yet to be disclosed, the level of centralization of governance tokens is worth noting for investors looking to both invest and/or exercise voting power through acquisition of WLFI tokens.
Stablecoins Feature Prominently
Since the final tokenomics and whitepaper have yet to be publicly disclosed the mission and business model of World Liberty Financial remains a matter of speculation versus fact. That said, both the former President and project representatives have reiterated the goal of establishing the United States as the crypto capital of the planet. One avenue that has been publicly disclosed as part of that goal is the aspiration of the project to embrace stablecoins alongside the WLFI governance token.
Building on comments from former President Trump regarding the position of the U.S. as an economic leader and crypto hub, combined with the fact that over 90% of stablecoins are backed on a 1:1 basis by the dollar and these statements seem in alignment. Specifics related to which stablecoins will be integrated are forthcoming, but it is yet another indication of the growing importance of stablecoins to the crypto space.
Regardless of how World Liberty Financial works out, this project will continue to elevate crypto in terms of mainstream coverage and investor understanding.
Finance
Why it may not be fair to say Fed made inflation 'mistake'
A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co
In the context of inflation, was the Federal Reserve late to ? Most would agree the answer is yes.
But the Fed doesn’t have just one mandate of promoting price stability. It has a of promoting both price stability and maximum employment.
Taking employment into consideration, that the Fed was late to tighten monetary policy.
I can’t pinpoint exactly when the calls to tighten began when inflation was heating up three years ago. But we can all agree that these calls grew loudest ahead of the .
The core PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — was at a high of 5.5% in March 2022. Clearly, inflation was a problem.
That same month, the unemployment rate was 3.6%, the lowest level since before the pandemic.
The unemployment rate effectively bottomed that month, mostly trending sideways as inflation rates cooled.
What if the Fed acted earlier?
I generally don’t like considering counterfactual scenarios because the world is complex, and no one can say with certainty what would’ve actually happened in the past if certain things had gone differently. But since we continue to hear folks casually say that we would’ve been better off if the Fed acted earlier, I’ll indulge in the thought exercise.
What if the Fed hiked rates at its January 2022 meeting? Maybe our inflation mess would’ve ended a little sooner. But the unemployment rate was higher at 4%. Would we have been okay with the unemployment rate trending at 4%? Maybe.
What if we went back a little further, and the Fed hiked rates at its October/November 2021 meeting? The core PCE price index was increasing at about a 4.5% rate. Price-sensitive consumers would’ve been much happier to see inflation top out there. But the unemployment rate was higher at about 4.5%. Does the cost of keeping unemployment almost a full percentage point higher justify the benefit of keeping prices a bit cooler?
What if the Fed moved even sooner when the unemployment rate was even higher?
The big picture
Here’s my point: While it’s fair to argue the Fed hiked rates too late in the context of inflation, I don’t think it’s fair to argue they made a mistake — especially when you consider the goals of monetary policy in their entirety, which include promoting maximum employment.
While high inflation is a headache for consumers, at least some of it was the result of newly employed people finally being able to afford to purchase goods and services.
Like I said before, the world is complex. So who knows? Maybe there’s a scenario where the Fed tightened monetary policy sooner and the unemployment rate continued to fall anyway as inflation cooled.
But the likely outcome of tighter monetary policy earlier in this economic cycle would have been unemployment bottoming at a higher level than what we’ve experienced.
I’m not suggesting the Fed was right or wrong to adjust monetary policy when it did. I’m just saying that you cannot talk about how monetary policy actions affect inflation without addressing how they affect employment.
How about instead of proclaiming that the Fed was late in the context of inflation — which is not a controversial view — we instead tackle the of how we balance the tradeoff between price stability and employment. How many people is it okay to leave unemployed if it means improving price stability?
The state of play
Over the past two and a half years, . And while the unemployment rate remains low by historical standards, it has been .
Last month when the unemployment rate was 4.3%, : “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.“
“The time has come for policy to adjust,” he . It was one of the more explicit signals that rate cuts would begin soon, a development most market participants welcome.
Of course, there are also voices brushing off the rise in unemployment as they argue that the Fed should wait longer until inflation is defeated more definitively.
Reviewing the macro crosscurrents
There were a few notable data points and macroeconomic developments from last week to consider:
The labor market continues to add jobs. According to the report released Friday, U.S. employers added 142,000 jobs in August. It was the 44th straight month of gains, reaffirming an economy with growing demand for labor.
Total payroll employment is at a record 158.8 million jobs, up 6.4 million from the prepandemic high.
The unemployment rate — that is, the number of workers who identify as unemployed as a percentage of the civilian labor force — declined to 4.2% during the month. While it continues to hover near 50-year lows, the metric is near its highest level since October 2021.
While the major metrics continue to reflect job growth and low unemployment, the labor market isn’t as hot as it used to be.
Wage growth ticks up. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-over-month in August, up from the 0.2% pace in July. On a year-over-year basis, this metric is up 3.8%, near the lowest rate since June 2021.
Job openings fall. According to the , employers had 7.76 million job openings in July, down from 7.91 million in June. While this remains slightly above prepandemic levels, it’s from the March 2022 high of 12.18 million.
During the period, there were 7.16 million unemployed people — meaning there were 1.07 job openings per unemployed person. Once a sign of , this telling metric is now below prepandemic levels.
Layoffs remain depressed. Employers laid off 1.76 million people in July. While challenging for all those affected, this figure represents just 1.1% of total employment. This metric continues to trend near pre-pandemic low levels.
Hiring activity continues to be much higher than layoff activity. During the month, employers hired 5.52 million people, up from 5.25 million in June.
People are quitting less. In July, 3.28 million workers quit their jobs. This represents 2.1% of the workforce. While up from the prior month, it remains below the prepandemic trend.
A low quits rate could mean a number of things: more people are satisfied with their job; workers have fewer outside job opportunities; wage growth is cooling; productivity will improve as fewer people are entering new unfamiliar roles.
Labor productivity inches up. From the : “Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.5% in the second quarter of 2024… as output increased 3.5 percent and hours worked increased 1.0%. … From the same quarter a year ago, nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.7%.”
Unemployment claims ticked lower. declined to 227,000 during the week ending August 31, down from 232,000 the week prior. While this metric continues to be at levels historically associated with economic growth, recent prints have been trending higher.
Card spending data is stable. From Bank of America: “Total card spending per household was up 2.8% y/y in week ending Aug 31, according to BAC aggregated credit & debit card data. This increase was likely driven by the change in the timing of Labor Day compared to last year (09/02/24 versus 09/04/24). Within sectors, furniture saw the biggest increase since last week, while entertainment showed the largest decline.”
Gas prices fall. From : “After idling over the Labor Day weekend, the national average for a gallon of gas resumed its pace of daily declines by falling six cents since last week to $3.30. Key contributors are low gas demand and the plunging cost of oil, which is struggling to stay above $70 a barrel.”
Mortgage rates hold steady. According to , the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.35% this week. From Freddie Mac: “Even though rates have come down over the summer, home sales have been lackluster. On the refinance side however, homeowners who bought in recent years are taking advantage of declining mortgage rates in order to lower their monthly payments.”
There are in the U.S., of which 86 million are and of which are . Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have , and most of those mortgages before rates surged from 2021 lows. All of this is to say: Most homeowners are not particularly sensitive to movements in home prices or mortgage rates.
Construction spending ticks lower. declined 0.3% to an annual rate of $2.16 trillion in July.
Services surveys look up. From S&P Global’s : “An improvement in the headline services PMI to its highest for nearly two-and-a-half years provides further encouraging evidence that the US economy is enjoying robust economic growth in the third quarter, adding to signs of a ‘soft landing’. The faster service sector expansion means the PMI surveys are signalling GDP growth of 2-2.5% in the third quarter. At the same time, the August survey data signaled a further cooling of selling price inflation, notably in the service sector, which has now eased close to the average seen prior to the pandemic and a level consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.”
Manufacturing surveys don’t look great. From S&P Global’s : “A further downward lurch in the PMI points to the manufacturing sector acting as an increased drag on the economy midway through the third quarter. Forward-looking indicators suggest this drag could intensify in the coming months. Slower than expected sales are causing warehouses to fill with unsold stock, and a dearth of new orders has prompted factories to cut production for the first time since January. Producers are also reducing payroll numbers for the first time this year and buying fewer inputs amid concerns about excess capacity.”
Similarly, the ISM’s signaled contraction in the industry.
Keep in mind that during times of perceived stress, soft survey data tends to be more exaggerated than hard data.
Factory orders jump. According to the , new orders for manufactured goods rose 5% to $592.1 billion in July.
Key recession indicators point to growth. Here’s a from economist Justin Wolfers tracking the trajectory of key measures of economic activity.
Near-term GDP growth estimates remain positive. The sees real GDP growth climbing at a 2.1% rate in Q3.
Putting it all together
We continue to get evidence that we are experiencing a where inflation cools to manageable levels .
This comes as the Federal Reserve continues to employ very tight monetary policy in its . Though, with inflation rates having from their 2022 highs, the Fed has taken a less hawkish tone in , even signaling that .
It would take monetary policy as being loose, which means we should be prepared for relatively tight financial conditions (e.g., higher interest rates, tighter lending standards, and lower stock valuations) to linger. All this means for the time being, and the risk the into a recession will be relatively elevated.
At the same time, we also know that stocks are discounting mechanisms — meaning that .
Also, it’s important to remember that while recession risks may be elevated, . Unemployed people are , and those with jobs are getting raises.
Similarly, as many corporations . Even as the threat of higher debt servicing costs looms, give corporations room to absorb higher costs.
At this point, any given that the .
And as always, should remember that and are just when you enter the stock market with the aim of generating long-term returns. While , the long-run outlook for stocks .
A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co
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