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Prediction: This Unstoppable Vanguard ETF Will Keep Beating the S&P 500 Over the Long Term

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Prediction: This Unstoppable Vanguard ETF Will Keep Beating the S&P 500 Over the Long Term

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is an index of 500 companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. It’s a prestigious achievement for any company to be admitted into the index, and only the highest-quality names make the cut.

Selection is at the discretion of the Index Committee, but companies must be profitable, and they also need a market capitalization of at least $18 billion. That figure rises over time, because the S&P 500 is weighted by market cap, which means the largest companies in the index have a greater influence over its performance than the smallest.

As a result, technology has become the largest sector in the index with a weighting of 31.4%. It includes trillion-dollar giants Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia.

A sculpture of a golden bull standing on a laptop computer.

Image source: Getty Images.

Meet the S&P 500 Growth index

The S&P 500 Growth index holds around 231 of the best-performing stocks in the regular S&P 500, and excludes the rest. It selects those stocks based on factors like their momentum and the sales growth of the underlying companies.

Therefore, it’s no surprise the tech sector has a whopping 50.2% weighting in the Growth index. Nvidia, for example, grew its revenue by 262% year over year during its most recent quarter, and its stock has soared 200% over the past 12 months alone.

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But here’s the best part. The Growth index rebalances every quarter, which means it removes stocks that no longer meet its criteria for inclusion and replaces them with more suitable candidates. As a result, this index has typically outperformed the regular S&P 500 over the long term.

The Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF tracks the S&P 500 Growth index

The Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSEMKT: VOOG) is designed to track the performance of the S&P 500 Growth index by holding the same stocks and maintaining similar weightings.

The below table shows the top five holdings in the Vanguard ETF, and how their weightings compare to the regular S&P 500:

Stock

Vanguard ETF Weighting

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S&P 500 Weighting

1. Apple

12.28%

6.89%

2. Microsoft

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11.93%

6.70%

3. Nvidia

11.04%

6.20%

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4. Amazon

4.43%

3.69%

5. Meta Platforms

4.17%

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2.24%

Data source: Vanguard. Portfolio weightings are accurate as of July 31, 2024, and are subject to change.

The Vanguard ETF delivered a return of 36.5% over the past year, comfortably outperforming the S&P 500, which is up 30.2%:

There were two factors at play:

  1. The five stocks in the above table have delivered an average return of 76.7% over the past year, and since they have a much higher weighting in the Vanguard ETF relative to the S&P 500, that contributed to the outperformance of the ETF.

  2. As I mentioned earlier, the Growth index (and by extension, the Vanguard ETF), only holds the top-performing stocks from the S&P 500 and excludes the laggards, which also contributed to the higher return in the ETF.

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AAPL ChartAAPL Chart

AAPL Chart

The Vanguard ETF can outperform the S&P 500 over the long term

The Vanguard ETF has delivered a compound annual return of 15.9% since it was established in 2010, beating the average annual gain of 13.7% in the S&P 500 over the same period. While that 2.2 percentage point difference each year doesn’t sound like much, it makes a big impact in dollar terms thanks to the effects of compounding:

Starting Balance (2010)

Compound Annual Return

Balance in 2024

$10,000

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15.9% (Vanguard ETF)

$78,916

$10,000

13.7% (S&P 500)

$60,345

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Calculations by author.

If technologies like cloud computing, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence continue to drive the tech sector forward, the largest holdings in the Vanguard ETF are likely to remain constant in the coming years. In that scenario, I predict the ETF will continue outperforming the S&P 500.

However, even if there is a shift in market leadership, the Growth index will rebalance as necessary. Therefore, if the Vanguard ETF does suffer a period of underperformance relative to the S&P 500, I think it’s likely to be very short-lived.

Should you invest $1,000 in Vanguard Admiral Funds – Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF right now?

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Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Prediction: This Unstoppable Vanguard ETF Will Keep Beating the S&P 500 Over the Long Term was originally published by The Motley Fool

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Finance

Fake ‘ghost students’ stealing identities and financial aid money

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Fake ‘ghost students’ stealing identities and financial aid money

NEW YORK (WABC) — They’re called “ghost students” and they’re draining the resources of community colleges and stealing tax payer financial aid funds.

“You’re stealing from people who really have the least already,” said Dr. David Stout, President of Brookdale Community College in New Jersey. “It’s infuriating.”

Scammers are stealing people’s identities, often through data breaches, to apply for online college classes. Once they apply for financial aid and get the money, they disappear.

It’s a sophisticated scheme and community colleges are often targeted because of their open enrollment policies.

At Brookdale Community College, they’ve been receiving about 1,000 ghost student applications each year for the past three years.

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“Knowing that there are individuals out there that are trying to steal from our community college students and individuals who are trying to steal from our community and from our taxpayers is infuriating,” said Dr. Stout.

Since the pandemic started, it wasn’t rare to have students across the country sign up for his college’s online courses. But three years ago, when one of his financial aid workers noticed a bump in enrollment, the president’s team investigated.

“So she dug a little bit deeper and found that there were seven students that all shared somewhat common credentials and it was at that point that we realized that we were the victims of ghost students,” said Dr. Stout.

“Of course I’m furious that we may have individuals who try to take advantage of the open door policies that community colleges have,” said Dr. Stout.

He said there’s no evidence that any of the fake students who applied at Brookdale received financial funds, they were discovered first. Since then, the college says it has put mechanisms in place to root out fake applicants.

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Eyewitness News reached out to other colleges in the area who say they’ve also put new screening practices in place.

At the City University of New York, a spokesperson said ghost applicants make up less than 1% of its applications. In a statement, a college spokesperson said: “Thanks to our careful screening process none were accepted or provided financial aid, but we continue to strengthen our policies to reduce the number of these applications. For example, the University recently introduced CAPTCHA to screen out bots and fake applicants.”

Nassau Community College has also taken precautions.

A spokesperson said. “while we cannot disclose specific security measures, the college’s IT, financial aid, and admissions departments have been working together to protect the integrity of our admissions and financial aid processes and mitigate the risk this type of fraud poses to our institution.”

Eyewitness News partnered with ABC News to show how this is a growing problem across the country.

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The Inspector General’s Office with the U.S. Department of Education says they have 200 open investigations nationwide.

“We see in some of these fraud schemes where people are enrolled in two or three different schools at the same time receiving aid at all of them,” said Jason Williams, the U.S. Dept of Education Assistant Inspector General for Investigation.

Some schools are now using special software to screen applicants.

“It takes a tremendous amount of administrative work to go through and verify that they’re fraudulent,” said Dr. Stout.

The Brookdale Community College President says they’re in contact with other colleges in the area on a continuous basis to share information and ways to prevent ghost applicants from getting enrolled.

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Graham Price, Senior Consultant, Financial Restructuring

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Graham Price, Senior Consultant, Financial Restructuring

Graham is a senior consultant in the global special situations & private credit practice, based in the Hong Kong office. Dually qualified in England & Wales and Hong Kong, Graham focuses on both finance and restructuring matters across the Asia-Pacific region. He represents private credit funds, private equity sponsors, major institutional lenders and asset managers on a wide range of finance transactions, including cross-border leveraged financings, restructurings, special situations, direct lending, margin loans, real estate finance and corporate facilities.

Prior to joining Akin, Graham worked at leading international law firms in Hong Kong and London where he also undertook a secondment to Barclays Capital. 

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Finance

Global brand in an EFL world – Wrexham’s finances explained as club eye Premier League

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Global brand in an EFL world –  Wrexham’s finances explained as club eye Premier League

Because the EFL’s profit and sustainability rules are about trying to make sure clubs are not losing unsustainable amounts of money.

Despite going on a summer spending spree, paying about £30m for players and having one of the highest net spends around, Wrexham are well within the financial parameters because of the commercial revenue already being brought in thanks to deals with giants such as United Airlines and HP.

In League Two, they were already bringing in more than 20 of the 24 Championship clubs.

“Under the PSR rules, you’re allowed to lose £39m over three years,” said Maguire. “Looking at their two most recent sets of accounts, Wrexham lost around about £23m – but they’ve had substantial increases in broadcast revenue, from about £1.2m in TV money in League Two to about £12m this season.”

That is before taking into account a significant jump in sponsorship and commercial income, with chief executive Michael Williamson estimating they are already on a par with some top-flight clubs.

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“We have a global brand, a Premier League brand in the Championship,” Williamson told Ben Foster’s Fozcast podcast in August 2025.

“What we don’t have is the broadcast revenue of Premier League clubs or the parachute payments.

“From a commercial standpoint, if you compared us to Championship clubs, I’m sure we’d be among the top and – on commercial revenues only – we would probably surpass a handful of Premier League clubs, around four or five I would guess.”

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