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Prediction: This Unstoppable Vanguard ETF Will Keep Beating the S&P 500 Over the Long Term

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Prediction: This Unstoppable Vanguard ETF Will Keep Beating the S&P 500 Over the Long Term

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is an index of 500 companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. It’s a prestigious achievement for any company to be admitted into the index, and only the highest-quality names make the cut.

Selection is at the discretion of the Index Committee, but companies must be profitable, and they also need a market capitalization of at least $18 billion. That figure rises over time, because the S&P 500 is weighted by market cap, which means the largest companies in the index have a greater influence over its performance than the smallest.

As a result, technology has become the largest sector in the index with a weighting of 31.4%. It includes trillion-dollar giants Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia.

A sculpture of a golden bull standing on a laptop computer.

Image source: Getty Images.

Meet the S&P 500 Growth index

The S&P 500 Growth index holds around 231 of the best-performing stocks in the regular S&P 500, and excludes the rest. It selects those stocks based on factors like their momentum and the sales growth of the underlying companies.

Therefore, it’s no surprise the tech sector has a whopping 50.2% weighting in the Growth index. Nvidia, for example, grew its revenue by 262% year over year during its most recent quarter, and its stock has soared 200% over the past 12 months alone.

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But here’s the best part. The Growth index rebalances every quarter, which means it removes stocks that no longer meet its criteria for inclusion and replaces them with more suitable candidates. As a result, this index has typically outperformed the regular S&P 500 over the long term.

The Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF tracks the S&P 500 Growth index

The Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSEMKT: VOOG) is designed to track the performance of the S&P 500 Growth index by holding the same stocks and maintaining similar weightings.

The below table shows the top five holdings in the Vanguard ETF, and how their weightings compare to the regular S&P 500:

Stock

Vanguard ETF Weighting

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S&P 500 Weighting

1. Apple

12.28%

6.89%

2. Microsoft

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11.93%

6.70%

3. Nvidia

11.04%

6.20%

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4. Amazon

4.43%

3.69%

5. Meta Platforms

4.17%

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2.24%

Data source: Vanguard. Portfolio weightings are accurate as of July 31, 2024, and are subject to change.

The Vanguard ETF delivered a return of 36.5% over the past year, comfortably outperforming the S&P 500, which is up 30.2%:

There were two factors at play:

  1. The five stocks in the above table have delivered an average return of 76.7% over the past year, and since they have a much higher weighting in the Vanguard ETF relative to the S&P 500, that contributed to the outperformance of the ETF.

  2. As I mentioned earlier, the Growth index (and by extension, the Vanguard ETF), only holds the top-performing stocks from the S&P 500 and excludes the laggards, which also contributed to the higher return in the ETF.

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AAPL ChartAAPL Chart

AAPL Chart

The Vanguard ETF can outperform the S&P 500 over the long term

The Vanguard ETF has delivered a compound annual return of 15.9% since it was established in 2010, beating the average annual gain of 13.7% in the S&P 500 over the same period. While that 2.2 percentage point difference each year doesn’t sound like much, it makes a big impact in dollar terms thanks to the effects of compounding:

Starting Balance (2010)

Compound Annual Return

Balance in 2024

$10,000

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15.9% (Vanguard ETF)

$78,916

$10,000

13.7% (S&P 500)

$60,345

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Calculations by author.

If technologies like cloud computing, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence continue to drive the tech sector forward, the largest holdings in the Vanguard ETF are likely to remain constant in the coming years. In that scenario, I predict the ETF will continue outperforming the S&P 500.

However, even if there is a shift in market leadership, the Growth index will rebalance as necessary. Therefore, if the Vanguard ETF does suffer a period of underperformance relative to the S&P 500, I think it’s likely to be very short-lived.

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Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Prediction: This Unstoppable Vanguard ETF Will Keep Beating the S&P 500 Over the Long Term was originally published by The Motley Fool

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How can I illustrate our financial position to a spouse who shows little interest?

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How can I illustrate our financial position to a spouse who shows little interest?

Reader question: My spouse has little interest in our financial position. As we age, this concerns me. I try to share some basic information (income, spending, account balances, debt, and so on) each month but rarely get a response. I think graphs or charts might be of more interest to her than a bunch of numbers. What recommendations would you have for illustrating our financial position so that I am not the only person aware of how we are situated? Thanks!

Answer: Your situation is pretty common. Most couples I know develop a division of labor over time, where one person is in charge of financial matters and the other person is less involved. That’s definitely the case for my husband and me. He’s in charge of paying all the monthly bills and preparing our tax returns, but the financial planning and investment decisions are up to me. This type of arrangement might work well for a long time, but can become less sustainable with age, particularly if the “finance person” in the relationship dies or develops a major health issue.

Online tools and mind maps

Illustrating your financial situation with charts and graphs is a great idea that might help your spouse become a little more involved. Morningstar’s  Portfolio X-Ray  tool includes a variety of images that help illustrate your financial situation. Websites for most major brokerage firms also include some visual tools. Schwab, for example, offers a Portfolio Checkup and a bar graph illustrating your account’s monthly income from dividends and interest income. Vanguard has a Portfolio Watch tool and a variety of performance illustrations, tools, and calculators.

A  mind map, which we used with clients when I worked for a financial advisory firm, can be another way to picture your entire financial situation on one page. There are various  softwaretemplates  for drawing a mind map, or you can simply sketch it out with a large sheet of paper and a pencil. Start with your names at the center of the page. Then draw spokes connecting to various categories, such as names of other family members; investment accounts; real estate and other assets, insurance policies, estate plans, key goals and values, and contact information for accountants, estate planners, and other professionals. It can be helpful to go through the mind map together and make any updates needed at least once a year.

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Other ways to communicate about money

A few other ideas—though not related to charts and graphs—might also be useful.

I like the idea of putting together a  net worth statement  that itemizes cash, taxable accounts, real estate, retirement accounts, and debt for each member of the couple as well as items owned jointly. It’s a good idea to update this document at least once a year and  discuss it as a couple. If you set up the document as a spreadsheet, you can include columns with additional information such as account numbers, what each account is used for, which accounts are subject to required minimum distributions, or tax issues like potential capital gains.

Many couples also put together a  binder  (sometimes humorously called a “Doomsday Book”) that contains information about where to find important paperwork, insurance policies, how bills are paid, what each account is for, steps the surviving spouse will need to take, final wishes, and any other critical information.

A well-qualified financial adviser can bridge the information gap

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Finally, you could consider working with a good  financial adviser,  who can help involve your spouse in financial matters while you’re still living and step in to fully manage investments and personal finance decisions if you pass away before your spouse. Make sure the adviser holds the Certified Financial Planner designation and charges fees that are reasonable. Although a 1% fee is still the industry standard for accounts of $1 million or less, it’s possible to find advisers who charge significantly less, including a few who price their services based on hours worked instead of a percentage of assets under management.

_____

This article was provided to The Associated Press by Morningstar. For more personal finance content, go to https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance.

Amy C. Arnott, CFA, is a portfolio strategist for Morningstar and co-host of The Long View podcast.

Related links:

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What If This Turns Out to Be a Terrible Time to Retire?

https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/what-if-this-turns-out-be-terrible-time-retire

Bill Bengen: ‘Inflation Is the Greatest Enemy of Retirees’

https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/bill-bengen-inflation-is-greatest-enemy-retirees

3 Big Questions to Ask Your Aging Parents

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https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/3-big-questions-ask-your-aging-parents

Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

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Finance

Proximo Congress 2026: US Energy & Infrastructure Finance | Insights | Mayer Brown

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Proximo Congress 2026: US Energy & Infrastructure Finance | Insights | Mayer Brown

Mayer Brown is a proud sponsor of Proximo Congress 2026. This senior meeting of the US energy, infrastructure, and digital infrastructure finance community is shaped around the questions credit and investment committees are actually asking in 2026: how asset classes are converging, how risk is being priced in a recalibrated policy and geopolitical environment, and how public and private capital are being structured together to deliver projects at scale.

Mayer Brown has also been recognized for three separate awards which will be presented during the event. These awards include:

  • Proximo North America Transport Deal of the Year 2025 – SR 400 Peach Partners
  • Proximo North America Rail Deal of the Year 2025 – Brightline West
  • Proximo North America LNG Deal of the Year 2025 – Port Arthur LNG 2

For more information, visit the event website. 

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Finance

What are nonconforming mortgages and what are the risks?

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What are nonconforming mortgages and what are the risks?

If you have ever taken out a mortgage, you’ll know there are a lot of requirements to meet. You may need to put down a certain amount and have a debt-to-income ratio below a certain threshold. You may also run into limits on how much you can borrow or what sources of income the lender will count.

These rules do not apply to all mortgages — just to conforming mortgages, which is what the majority of borrowers take out. However, mortgage lenders are increasingly offering what are known as nonconforming loans, or mortgages that do not “comply with every one of the strict standards put in place after the housing crisis,” said The Wall Street Journal. While “still a small portion,” the “share of mortgages using alternative lending practices” has “doubled in size over the past three years.”

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