Finance
Nvidia stock paces toward weekly loss as Wall Street sees 'urgent demand' keeping the chip trade intact
Nvidia stock (NVDA) was on track Friday for a weekly loss of nearly 2% as investors continue to sort through what’s been a challenging last several weeks for the year’s hottest trade.
But Wall Street analysts this week remained confident in the long-term prospects for Nvidia, which is now down about 20% over the last month and off more than 25% from its record closing high.
Earlier this week, Piper Sandler analysts called out a “tremendous opportunity” to buy Nvidia, AMD (AMD), and ON Semiconductor (ON) following the sector’s recent sell-off.
Some analysts also took the opportunity to upgrade the stock during this sell-off.
“I think that for 2025 … things are fairly well set,” New Street Research technology infrastructure analyst Antoine Chkaiban told Yahoo Finance on Thursday. “We know roughly how much [hyperscalers] expect to grow capex. Plans are already set.” New Street upgraded Nvidia to a Buy this week with a $120 price target.
On Friday, chip manufacturer TSMC (TSM), a supplier to Nvidia, posted a 45% year-over-year increase in sales in July — a sign that AI demand remains strong.
“We still sense an urgent demand across the board, and that mitigates the risk in a pause in shipments as customers wait for the next generation of chips to be available in volumes,” said Chkaiban.
The so-called hyperscalers — Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) — each remained consistent during recent earnings reports in their commitment to AI investment. And much of this investment flows right to Nvidia.
“Investors will likely revisit the AI-levered names because that within [semiconductors] is still the one area spending is flowing in terms of customer spending as evidenced by increases in capex by multiple hyperscalers this earnings period,” Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis told Yahoo Finance on Friday.
Talk of a possible delay for Nvidia’s Blackwell next-generation chip put added pressure on the stock earlier this week. A two-month wait for the chips wouldn’t be inconsequential, analysts say, but it would still not be enough to move the needle on Wall Street expectations.
Curtis’s team stated in a recent note the Nvidia delays “are real, but not a thesis changer.” The company is set to report quarterly results at the end of August.
Analysts and strategists looking at markets more broadly also see the recent cooling in the AI trade as an opportunity.
Truist Advisory’s chief marketing strategist Keith Lerner upgraded the tech sector to Overweight on Thursday after a 12% decline from its mid-July peak with semiconductors down almost 20%. Lerner noted that despite the drop in the price of these stocks, tech’s forward earnings estimates continue to rise.
“This suggests the recent setback was due more to crowded positioning as opposed to a shift in fundamentals,” Lerner wrote in a note to clients.
“Moreover, in a cooling economic environment, we expect investors to come back to tech given some of the secular tailwinds stemming from artificial intelligence (AI) and its premium growth prospects. Moreover, during the current earnings season, we have seen capital spending trends toward AI continue to rise.”
But recent sentiment shifts don’t necessarily resolve the looming question, which investors will in time want answered — how do these massive AI investments eventually pay off?
“When it comes to technology, what’s very apparent is not just the macroeconomic picture but also the fact that people want to see … evidence that that GenAI trade is actually driving positive outcomes,” Luke Barrs, managing director at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, told Yahoo Finance on Friday.
“We have to just be cautious and let it play out over the next year or two.”
Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.
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Finance
Equities are using labor data ‘as an excuse,’ strategist says
Stocks closed Friday’s session lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) both shedding over 1.6% following the better-than-expected December jobs report. Wall Street experts are looking at the fresh employment data as a cause for the Federal Reserve to slow its interest rate cuts originally planned for 2025.
Glenmede Chief of Investment Strategy and Research Jason Pride shares his thoughts with Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton on the report, calling it “pretty decent” and believes the market could be using the labor print “as an excuse.”
“And to have some excuses for taking a breather is reasonable. That the market’s pointing to this one. I don’t know that this is really the long-term story here,” Pride explains. “In fact, quite often, we believe that markets with interest rates, with inflation expectations, they quite often take the most recent data points and actually extrapolate them a little bit too far.”
Pride also emphasizes the importance of broadening out and rebalancing one’s portfolio in order to explore more of the opportunities — from small-cap stocks (^RUT) to fixed-income (^TYX, ^TNX, ^FVX) — 2025 has to offer.
“Take your eyes a little bit off of the big [Magnficient] Seven or [the] big cap growth stocks that everybody is so focused on. Take your eyes a little bit off of that and recognize there is an entire investment universe to own,” Pride says.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here.
This post was written by Josh Lynch
Finance
US labor market finishes 2024 on high note, adding 256,000 jobs in December as unemployment falls to 4.1%
The US economy added more jobs than forecast in December while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell.
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed 256,000 new jobs were created in December, far more than the 165,000 expected by economists and higher than the 212,000 seen in November. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in November. December marked the most monthly job gains seen since March 2023.
Revisions to the unemployment rate in 2024 also showed the labor market was stronger than initially thought. The cycle high for the unemployment rate had initially been 4.3% in July but that figure was revised down to 4.2% in Friday’s release.
“There is no denying that this is a strong report,” Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons wrote in a note to clients on Friday.
Wage growth, an important measure for gauging inflation pressures, rose 0.3% in December, in line with economists’ expectations and below the 0.4% seen in November.
Compared to the prior year, wages rose 3.9% in December, below the 4% seen in November. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate was flat at 62.5%.
The strong picture of the US labor market presented in Friday’s report pushed out investor bets on when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next. Traders now see a less than 50% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates until June, per the CME Fed Watch Tool. A day prior, investors had favored a cut in May.
Read more: How the Fed rate cut affects your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments
“You’re seeing this steady but slightly cooling labor market trend, which is very encouraging from a Fed perspective,” EY chief economist Gregory Daco told Yahoo Finance. “I think the attention will actually pivot back towards inflation developments over the course of the next three months.”
Stocks sank following the report, with futures tied to all three major averages down nearly 1%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX), a recent headwind for stocks, added about 8 basis points to reach 4.78%, its highest level since November 2023.
“The problem here now is if you’re looking for rate cuts based on a weakening labor market..stop looking for those,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told Yahoo Finance. “It’s not going to happen in the immediate term.”
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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Finance
SBA Offers Financial Relief to Los Angeles County Businesses and Residents Impacted by Devastating Wildfires
Administrator Guzman to Travel to Southern California to Assess Needs
WASHINGTON, Jan. 09, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Today, SBA Administrator Isabel Casillas Guzman announced that low-interest federal disaster loans are now available to Southern California businesses, homeowners, renters and private nonprofit (PNP) organizations following President Joe Biden’s major disaster declaration. The declaration covers Los Angeles and the contiguous counties of Kern, Orange, San Bernardino, and Ventura due to wildfires and straight-line winds that began Jan. 7, 2025.
Administrator Guzman also will join FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell in Southern California this week to assess on-the-ground needs and ensure the SBA is fully prepared to assist businesses, homeowners, and renters impacted by this disaster.
“As heroic firefighters and first responders continue to battle the devastating wildfires sweeping across Southern California, the federal government is surging resources to ensure that Angelenos are prepared to recover and rebuild from this catastrophe,” said SBA Administrator Guzman. “In response to President Biden’s major disaster declaration, the SBA is mobilizing to provide financial relief to impacted businesses and residents. Our continued prayers are with the brave individuals working to put out these fires as well as all those who have lost loved ones, their homes, and their businesses to this disaster. We stand ready to support our fellow Americans for as long as it takes.”
Loans are available to businesses of all sizes and PNP organizations to repair or replace damaged or destroyed real estate, machinery, equipment, inventory, and other business assets. The SBA also offers Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDLs) to small businesses, small agricultural cooperatives, small businesses engaged in aquaculture, and most PNP organizations to help meet working capital needs caused by the disaster, even if there is no physical damage. EIDLs may be used to pay fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable, and other expenses that would have been met if not for the disaster. Businesses can apply for loans of up to $2 million.
Disaster loans of up to $500,000 are available to homeowners to repair or replace damaged or destroyed real estate. Homeowners and renters also are eligible for up to $100,000 to repair or replace damaged or destroyed personal property, including personal vehicles.
Interest rates can be as low as 4% for businesses, 3.625% for PNP organizations, and 2.563% for homeowners and renters, with terms up to 30 years. Loan amounts and terms are set by the SBA and based on each applicant’s financial condition. Interest does not begin to accrue until 12 months from the date of the first disaster loan disbursement and loan repayment can be deferred 12 months from the date of the first disbursement.
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