Finance
Nvidia investors should've sold the stock a month ago, strategist says
One Nvidia (NVDA) bear warned the time has come for investors to sell.
Nvidia failed to meet sky-high expectations when it reported its fiscal second quarter earnings on Wednesday. Nvidia reported profits and revenue that topped forecasts but not by as much as investors hoped, delivering its smallest earnings beat in the last six quarters.
Nvidia stock fell 6% on Wednesday evening in reaction to the results and continued to slide 4% lower on Thursday afternoon. Year to date, the stock remains up nearly 140%.
When asked when it might be time to sell, David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of Bahnsen Group, said, “About a month ago. Two months ago. Today. Tomorrow.”
“People are paying for perfection,” Bahnsen added (video above). “You’re buying Nvidia banking on there being another investor who’s a bigger sucker than you are.”
The warning from Bahnsen comes as the stock has rallied 1,000% from its October 2022 lows. His call is based on one data point: Nvidia’s price-to-earnings ratio, which sits just above 56 after earnings but neared 80 in July.
He offered a reminder that a company and its stock are not the same thing.
“This is not me bashing on Nvidia,” Bahnsen said. “This is a success story. I’m commenting on the valuation — that when you start paying those prices, the risk-reward skew becomes very unattractive.”
Still, it’s a risk that the 89% of analysts with a Buy rating on the stock are willing to take. The stock has zero Sell ratings, which is understandable considering Nvidia posted $30 billion in revenue in the second quarter, a 122% increase over the same period last year.
Nvidia’s future depends in part on other Big Tech companies. Hyperscalers Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN) are responsible for 40% of Nvidia’s revenue, according to Bloomberg estimates.
Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai indicated on the company’s earnings call this quarter that the company’s spending on artificial intelligence would not slow down. “The one way I think about it is when you go through a curve like this, the risk of underinvesting is dramatically greater than the risk of overinvesting for us,” Pichai said.
Alphabet’s investment in AI, which represents a significant portion of Nvidia’s revenue, could be a bullish signal to come. But those business fundamentals aren’t the only focus.
“The estimates for next year and the year after that are starting to get way, way out of control,” D.A. Davidson managing director Gil Luria told Yahoo Finance.
The next big question for investors is whether the Street’s reaction to Nvidia results this quarter will be enough to dampen earnings expectations heading into Q3.
For Bahnsen, it may already be too late.
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Finance
Mega landlord warns some investors ‘will be wiped out’ in budget changes
Eddie Dilleen is one of Australia’s biggest residential landlords. He reckons he now has 200 properties in his portfolio.
But he just bought perhaps his favourite house yet. More than 25 years after his parents divorced and sold the family home for $97,000, he has purchased it back for a bit under $1 million.
“I just bought it sight unseen,” he told Yahoo Finance.
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Dilleen said he has spent the past decade periodically checking if the house had returned to market.
“You can set reminders and stuff like that, but when I was on my phone messing around, I would randomly check it literally every one or two weeks for the past 12 years.”
His parents first bought the home in the far western suburbs of Sydney in 1985 for $51,000. When he saw it listed, he felt “an overwhelming rush of excitement,” he said.
“This home holds some of my best memories… and some tough ones too. But today, it represents something completely different,” he wrote online, sharing a photo of himself next to the sold sign on Tuesday. “It’s proof that where you start doesn’t define where you finish.”
He ultimately bought it for 19 times what his parents paid for it 41 years ago.
“The affordable properties and suburbs, they usually grow at a higher percentage value. I’m all about percentages,” he told Yahoo Finance.
“Everyone talks about the best, blue chip locations, but I buy everywhere.”
Dilleen, who is in his mid 30s and also runs a buyers agency and writes books about real estate investing, estimates the properties he owns are now collectively worth about $150 million (he likes to buy blocks that contain multiple units) with about $60 million in debt against that.
According to ATO data, he is about one of 166 mega landlords who own 20 or more rental properties in their own name. Dilleen said he owns “about 30 or 40” in his own name, and others through trust and company structures.
Landlords overly reliant on negative gearing ‘will be wiped out’
With less than two weeks until the Labor government hand downs its promised “ambitious” budget, property investors are bracing for possible changes to the rules around tax deductions related to investments.
One of the most commonly used is negative gearing, which allows landlords to claim losses to reduce the amount of income tax they pay. But its days could be numbered with the federal government expected to cap, or possibly even scrap, the existing policy under certain circumstances. While no announcements have actually been made, most observers expect such a change to be grandfathered in for existing investors.
Finance
Finance Industry Surpasses Regulators in AI Adoption | PYMNTS.com
New research shows the finance sector leading regulatory authorities in adopting artificial intelligence (AI).
Finance
First home buyer’s superannuation mistake exposes ‘widespread’ ATO problem
First home buyer Jessica Ricci was just trying to save a little extra money through her superannuation in a federal government scheme intended to help people like her. But an error from tax authorities has left her paying more tax than the top income bracket on some super contributions – ironically having the exact opposite of the intended effect of the policy.
As a result, she’s lost out on an extra $2,250 in savings that was supposed to go to her house deposit. While the ATO pushed back over who was at fault for the mix-up, her case has highlighted an increasingly problematic blindspot when it comes taxpayers getting the short end of the stick when dealing with tax authorities.
“I’m definitely feeling a little bit helpless,” she told Yahoo Finance. “There’s not a clear path to rectify this.”
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Jess was tipping extra money into her superannuation as part of the First Home Super Saver Scheme which has been running for years and allows eligible first home buyers to take advantage of the tax benefits of their retirement savings and then pull those extra contributions out to use for a house deposit.
As part of the scheme, individuals need to apply to the ATO, which in turn requests the related money from the person’s super fund.
Over four years, Jess contributed the maximum $50,000 amount, ensuring not to exceed the $15,000 yearly cap. She did so with the expectation of claiming the benefit at the time of her house purchase, as per the rules of the scheme.
When she went to make the claim, much of the information was auto-populated by the ATO website. And after receiving her funds, and the amount being less than expected, she soon discovered that her first contribution was wrongly classified as a concessional contribution, meaning $2,250 was, in the words of an ATO official, “retained by the ATO as withholding tax”.
She has spent months going back and forth with tax officials trying to get the money she believes should be owed to her.
“They’ve all taken the same stance, which is; ‘Well, yeah, we made a mistake, but you didn’t catch it. You said that what we provided you was fine, so it’s your fault’.
“I think it’s crazy to put the onus or the burden on the average person. I think most people would rightfully assume that pre-filled data provided by the ATO would be accurate,” she said.
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