Connect with us

Finance

Liquidity is vanishing in this pivotal corner of U.S. housing-finance market as the Fed steps back

Published

on

Liquidity is vanishing in this pivotal corner of U.S. housing-finance market as the Fed steps back

Liquidity has been working briefly provide in a pivotal nook of U.S. housing finance, as Wall Avenue braces for the Federal Reserve to dramatically tighten monetary circumstances.

Many funding banks now count on the Fed to boost its coverage charges by 75 foundation factors on Wednesday, relatively than the 50-basis-point improve telegraphed earlier than Might’s consumer-price index confirmed U.S. inflation has but to ease from a 40-year excessive.

Learn: A 75-basis-point hike? Listed below are 3 methods the Fed can sound extra hawkish this week

Including to market pressures, the Fed in June additionally started shrinking its close to $9 trillion stability sheet, a key spigot of liquidity, by beginning to scale back its file holdings (see chart) of Treasurys and company mortgage-backed securities.

Federal Reserve appears to slash its roughly $2.7 trillion housing bond footprint


Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Advertisement

The issue is that the large $8.4 trillion company mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market has begun exhibiting indicators of stress, even earlier than the Fed begins to shrink, in earnest, its close to 32% stake within the government-backed housing bond market.

“It’s a whole lot of promoting, individuals elevating money,” says Scott Buchta, head of a fixed-income technique at Brean Capital, by cellphone. “There have been three or 4 days of regular promoting, forward of the Fed determination.”

Whereas market circumstances haven’t gotten almost as dire as in March 2020, earlier than the Fed rolled out its bazooka of pandemic help, Buchta stated turbulence within the mortgage market may intensify this summer season, until different consumers step in to fill the void left by the Fed.

Particular person traders usually have publicity to the company mortgage bond market by way of their fastened earnings holdings, but additionally from exchange-traded funds. The roughly $20.4 billion iShares MBS ETF
MBB,
-0.36%
was off 12.1% on the yr by way of Tuesday, whereas the close to $12.5 billion
VMBS,
-0.86%
shed 12.5%, in accordance with FactSet.

Few corners of economic markets have been proof against losses this yr, with the S&P 500 index
SPX,
-0.38%
down 21.6% to date, and formally in a bear market as of Monday.

Advertisement

Whereas company mortgage bonds usually function a haven play, or Treasury
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.480%
bond surrogate, “main” dealer sellers at large funding banks have decreased their holdings by about 12% from a yr in the past, in accordance with a Deutsche Financial institution analysis report on Tuesday, probably including to liquidity woes.

“The Fed has owned such a good portion of the MBS marketplace for so lengthy,” stated Mark Fontanilla, founding father of mortgage analytics agency Mark Fontanilla & Co. “Now, in the event that they wish to curb that, it’s a whole lot of paper for the market to soak up, not solely from discontinued shopping for, however moreover from something they might promote.”

Moreover, the Fed’s retreat coincides with a more durable backdrop for the housing market. House costs climbed about 20% up to now yr, however the 30-year fastened mortgage fee has almost doubled to round 5.2%. 

“That’s a roughly 30% greater mortgage cost in itself,” Fontanilla stated. “Not solely do you need to have a bigger down cost, however a 30% greater mortgage cost definitely places a dent in affordability.”

Additionally, as rates of interest climb, the price of leverage rises, an element Buchta stated will make it costlier for consumers to step in and finance trades within the sector. 

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Finance

Financing the future of senior living

Published

on

Financing the future of senior living

The United States population aged 75 and older is expected to double by 2050, and with a severe lack of senior living inventory, owners and operators are under increasing pressure to meet the growing demand for affordable, high-quality care. Addressing this challenge head-on requires a strategic financial approach, strong partnerships and operational improvements.

Current financial obstacles

The senior living sector has faced significant financial headwinds as it has recovered from the pandemic, with communities already managing high labor costs and narrow margins. With $19 billion in debt maturities due in the next two years and rising long-term interest rates — up 70 to 80 basis points in recent months — these pressures will continue to be top of mind for providers.

There is good news, as occupancy rates have steadily improved for 14 consecutive quarters across the sector, but converting those gains into stronger operating margins remains challenging. Labor expenses, driven by the need for skilled caregivers, are among the largest budgetary strains. Nearly half of the senior living inventory is more than 25 years old, underscoring the need for capital improvements to stay competitive.

At the same time, senior living professionals are struggling to finance new developments, deepening the already pervasive inventory issue. Those conditions may leave owners and operators wondering, “What can I do today to ensure long-term success for my business?”

Advertisement

Strategies for resilience and growth

To overcome those challenges, senior living professionals should explore creative financing solutions based on individual objectives. A key benefit of the sector is that, because of its valued place in society as an essential component of all communities, a myriad of both public and private financing options are available to support owners.

Considering the pros and cons of all available structures, then multi-tracking the options that are the best fit as long as possible, becomes even more important during challenging financing markets. For example:

  • The US Department of Housing and Urban Development loans can offer long-term, low fixed rates for refinancing but have rigid eligibility requirements and take longer to process.
  • Agency (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) financing can provide faster closings and better debt service ratio underwriting metrics, but loan-to-value sizing parameters, paired with limits on skilled nursing facility beds and certain payer types, can be more restrictive.
  • Finance companies, on the other hand, can allow for more creative underwriting structures and higher leverage, but borrowing costs are usually higher.
  • Lastly, traditional banks also have structuring flexibility and can lower variable interest rates, but guarantees are more prevalent. Property Assessed Clean Energy financing can be paired with finance company or bank debt to improve the capital structure.

Regardless of the financing path or paths chosen, improving the financial performance of the subject community will aid those efforts. Value-based care models are emerging as one practical way to accomplish this. Adopting value-based care requires aligning with broader healthcare systems and making operational changes to support collective goals. Strategies such as regular care coordination meetings, onsite medical teams and tailored Medicare Advantage plans already are showing promise in reducing healthcare costs and differentiating operators in the marketplace while allowing the senior living provider to share in the resulting expense savings.

Looking ahead

Despite the challenges, the future of senior living remains promising. Demographic trends indicate sustained demand, but new inventory growth has slowed significantly. Only 29% of construction projects began within the last year, the lowest rate in a decade.

High demand and low inventory conditions create a favorable environment for owners and operators who can secure funding to build new communities or modernize aging properties, establish healthcare partnerships and embrace innovative care models. Those senior living sponsors will be well-positioned to meet demand and set new standards for quality and efficiency. Interest rates moving lower would certainly help as well!

Advertisement

Kevin Laidlaw is managing director at NewPoint Real Estate Capital.

The opinions expressed in each McKnight’s Senior Living guest column are those of the author and are not necessarily those of McKnight’s Senior Living.

Have a column idea? See our submission guidelines here.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Finance

UniCredit builds stake in Generali, further complicating fight for Italian financial sector

Published

on

UniCredit builds stake in Generali, further complicating fight for Italian financial sector

The government is keen to ensure that Generali, which last month agreed to combine its asset management business with that of France-based Natixis, keeps its appetite for Italian sovereign debt at a time when Rome needs to borrow nearly €1 billion a day. The Trieste-based conglomerate is the government’s largest private-sector creditor.

Rome had initially pushed for an alliance between Banco BPM, a Milan-based lender, and Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), which the government is still in the process of privatizing after years of restructuring. That intention was frustrated last year when UniCredit made a formal offer for all of BPM. UniCredit said on Sunday that it remains committed to that deal, and to developing its relationship with Germany’s Commerzbank.

Rome is now throwing its support behind a bid by MPS for Mediobanca, a Milan-based merchant bank that has historically catered to some of the country’s biggest business empires. Mediobanca is also Generali’s biggest shareholder, with a 13.1 percent stake. Italian media have reported that the Del Vecchio and Caltagirone families, which hold just under 10 percent and 7 percent of Generali, respectively, want to increase their influence at the Trieste-based insurer.

A person familiar with the matter said that while the purchase of a stake by UniCredit was not an explicit attempt to exert leverage in the billionaires’ tussle over Generali, it will have an “interesting” effect at a coming board meeting. The same person noted that UniCredit had started snapping up Generali shares before MPS’s move on Mediobanca.

People familiar with the matter told POLITICO that UniCredit had built its stake via derivatives, gaining economic exposure to Generali without crossing a threshold for mandatory disclosure. UniCredit declined to comment to POLITICO on that.

Advertisement

Geoffrey Smith contributed reporting.

Continue Reading

Finance

Live: President Trump signs tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China

Published

on

Live: President Trump signs tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China

As a crucial moment for President Trump’s agenda approaches, markets are bracing for the potential fallout from tariffs.

But the Trump administration may also be bracing for the potential fallout from the stock market — a favorite scoreboard of Trump’s — as it weighs its options.

On a new episode of Capitol Gains, Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman, Ben Werschkul, and Seana Smith discuss how tough Trump will get on tariffs and how that dynamic is affecting markets.

“I think the shock at this point would be if Trump really did impose significant tariffs — at least, I don’t think Wall Street is pricing that in,” Newman said.

However, Werschkul noted that markets may be underestimating how much Trump wants to push through heavy tariffs.

Advertisement

“There’s a lot of issues that [Trump] talks about that you kind of get the sense that he’s not personally invested in,” Werschkul said. “That’s not true with tariffs. It’s a sort of throughline of his career.”

Capital Economics Group chief economist Neil Shearing also weighed in.

“My sense is tariffs are coming, but I don’t think they’ll be quite on the same scale that the president has talked about,” Shearing said, adding, “for obvious reasons, and that is that it would tank the market.”

See the full episode of Capitol Gains here.

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending