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Liquidity is vanishing in this pivotal corner of U.S. housing-finance market as the Fed steps back

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Liquidity is vanishing in this pivotal corner of U.S. housing-finance market as the Fed steps back

Liquidity has been working briefly provide in a pivotal nook of U.S. housing finance, as Wall Avenue braces for the Federal Reserve to dramatically tighten monetary circumstances.

Many funding banks now count on the Fed to boost its coverage charges by 75 foundation factors on Wednesday, relatively than the 50-basis-point improve telegraphed earlier than Might’s consumer-price index confirmed U.S. inflation has but to ease from a 40-year excessive.

Learn: A 75-basis-point hike? Listed below are 3 methods the Fed can sound extra hawkish this week

Including to market pressures, the Fed in June additionally started shrinking its close to $9 trillion stability sheet, a key spigot of liquidity, by beginning to scale back its file holdings (see chart) of Treasurys and company mortgage-backed securities.

Federal Reserve appears to slash its roughly $2.7 trillion housing bond footprint


Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

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The issue is that the large $8.4 trillion company mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market has begun exhibiting indicators of stress, even earlier than the Fed begins to shrink, in earnest, its close to 32% stake within the government-backed housing bond market.

“It’s a whole lot of promoting, individuals elevating money,” says Scott Buchta, head of a fixed-income technique at Brean Capital, by cellphone. “There have been three or 4 days of regular promoting, forward of the Fed determination.”

Whereas market circumstances haven’t gotten almost as dire as in March 2020, earlier than the Fed rolled out its bazooka of pandemic help, Buchta stated turbulence within the mortgage market may intensify this summer season, until different consumers step in to fill the void left by the Fed.

Particular person traders usually have publicity to the company mortgage bond market by way of their fastened earnings holdings, but additionally from exchange-traded funds. The roughly $20.4 billion iShares MBS ETF
MBB,
-0.36%
was off 12.1% on the yr by way of Tuesday, whereas the close to $12.5 billion
VMBS,
-0.86%
shed 12.5%, in accordance with FactSet.

Few corners of economic markets have been proof against losses this yr, with the S&P 500 index
SPX,
-0.38%
down 21.6% to date, and formally in a bear market as of Monday.

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Whereas company mortgage bonds usually function a haven play, or Treasury
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.480%
bond surrogate, “main” dealer sellers at large funding banks have decreased their holdings by about 12% from a yr in the past, in accordance with a Deutsche Financial institution analysis report on Tuesday, probably including to liquidity woes.

“The Fed has owned such a good portion of the MBS marketplace for so lengthy,” stated Mark Fontanilla, founding father of mortgage analytics agency Mark Fontanilla & Co. “Now, in the event that they wish to curb that, it’s a whole lot of paper for the market to soak up, not solely from discontinued shopping for, however moreover from something they might promote.”

Moreover, the Fed’s retreat coincides with a more durable backdrop for the housing market. House costs climbed about 20% up to now yr, however the 30-year fastened mortgage fee has almost doubled to round 5.2%. 

“That’s a roughly 30% greater mortgage cost in itself,” Fontanilla stated. “Not solely do you need to have a bigger down cost, however a 30% greater mortgage cost definitely places a dent in affordability.”

Additionally, as rates of interest climb, the price of leverage rises, an element Buchta stated will make it costlier for consumers to step in and finance trades within the sector. 

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Financial Experts: These Are the Top Mistakes Americans Make When Investing in the Stock Market

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Financial Experts: These Are the Top Mistakes Americans Make When Investing in the Stock Market

There’s no reason you should lose money investing in stocks, considering that the markets always move higher over time. This decade alone, the S&P 500 has risen by about 88%.

Just investing in an S&P 500 fund could have helped any investor generate solid profits. But a lot of investors still take a beating on Wall Street because they make common mistakes that can be easily avoided.

Advertisement: High Yield Savings Offers

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Read Next: I’m a Financial Advisor: 4 Investing Rules My Millionaire Clients Never Break

Check Out: These Cars May Seem Expensive, but They Rarely Need Repairs

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Here are the top mistakes Americans make when investing in the stock market, according to three financial experts contacted by GOBankingRates.

Also see the No. 1 mistake Americans make with their Roth IRAs, according to experts.

Misjudging risk was cited by Christine Chase, vice president and financial consultant at Fidelity Investments. More precisely, she cited a tendency to misjudge risk tolerance, which means too many investors either take on too much risk or are too conservative. Both extremes can negatively impact your return.

“Excessive risk can lead to emotional decision-making and panic-selling during market downturns, while being too conservative may prevent your portfolio from growing enough to meet long-term goals or keep pace with inflation,” Chase said.

To help manage risk and navigate the market’s ups and downs, she recommended maintaining a well-diversified portfolio and working with a financial professional.

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Be Aware: Suze Orman: 3 Biggest Mistakes You Can Make as an Investor

Anthony Grosso, a New York-based financial strategist and mortgage loan originator, told GOBankingRates the biggest mistake he sees people make is “blindly trusting the news” when investing. He learned this lesson himself as a younger investor.

“What I learned fast is that by the time something makes [it to the news], the market has already reacted,” Grosso said. “The news isn’t meant to educate — it’s there to get clicks and views. They will spin a story, beat a topic to death until you’re panicked or euphoric, and both of those times are when you make emotional decisions which are the worst ones.”

If you do watch the news, he recommended doing so with a healthy dose of skepticism.

“Try to get reports of the actual data — not someone’s opinion on the data,” Grosso said. “Learn to make your own opinions and it will give you the confidence to have a plan and stick with it.”

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Not cutting losses is a mistake that happens a lot, according to Edward Corona, a Florida-based trader and publisher of The Options Oracle Newsletter. In fact, it happened to him early in his career.

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NCSBE to investigate missing campaign finance records from Rockingham County

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NCSBE to investigate missing campaign finance records from Rockingham County
An investigation into missing campaign finance reports from candidates in Rockingham County, including nearly two decades worth of reports from county Sheriff Sam Page, will take place starting next week by the North Carolina State Board of Elections (NCSBE).
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The CFO’s New Caddie: How LPGA is Teeing Up a Future-Ready Finance Team

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The CFO’s New Caddie: How LPGA is Teeing Up a Future-Ready Finance Team

When you think of the Ladies Professional Golf Association (LPGA), you might picture championship swings on perfectly manicured fairways. But behind the glamour of the tour is a complex, multi-layered global business navigating the same intense financial pressures as any other international enterprise.

For Mary Salter, LPGA’s Chief Financial Officer (CFO), steering this operation meant confronting a hazard that wasn’t on the course: a legacy finance system holding her team back. Navigating the risks of on-premise servers and cumbersome manual processes required a new kind of caddie—one powered by modern technology.

“Prior to Sage Intacct, we were on an older Sage product,” Salter explained during an interview with ERP Today at the Sage Future Conference in Atlanta. “Our data was on a local server, and we’d heard about some other organizations that were having these cybersecurity breaches, so we knew we needed to address security. Moreover, we found that just transacting in the old system had become cumbersome, and we were even doing bank recs in Excel, which was a bit antiquated.”

According to Salter, the move to Sage Intacct was, therefore, about mitigating risk and fundamentally changing the finance team’s role from scorekeepers to strategic players.

Giving Time Back to Drive the Business Forward

For Salter, the actual value of any technology is measured in the one resource you can’t buy: time. The goal was to automate the mundane to free up her team for more impactful work.

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“Any right technology tool should give you time back, so you can use and repurpose it to do more strategic things or process improvements, or tasks that can drive the business forward,” Salter stated.

This philosophy extended beyond the finance department. By implementing a system with accessible dashboards and streamlined check requests, managers across the LPGA were empowered. The efficiency gains were not isolated in a single department but radiated throughout the organization, allowing everyone to focus on what truly matters.

Building Trust in a World of AI and Automation

However, implementing a new system is one thing; trusting it is another. This is especially true when introducing concepts like AI and automation. For Salter, trust was the linchpin for successful adoption. “Can I trust the outputs? Can I trust what the system is producing?” she asked, voicing a concern many finance leaders share when evaluating new technology.

The proof came from tangible results. A prime example was the month-end close, a notoriously painful process for any organization with multiple subsidiaries. Salter said that the LPGA has five, including three international entities.

“Consolidation took days before the new system,” Salter recalled. “Once we shifted to Sage Intacct, consolidation began to take minutes instead of days and was very reliable and trustworthy. We’ve now reduced the close time by 50%.”

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Salter added that when presenting financials to the board or executive leadership, she could stand behind the numbers with absolute certainty, backed by a system that worked flawlessly under pressure.

A Flexible, Future-Forward Partnership

One of the most compelling aspects of the LPGA’s journey is its pragmatic, piece-by-piece approach to modernization. Rather than a disruptive big bang implementation, the LPGA adopted capabilities as its needs evolved—a strategy that Sage highlighted in its announcements this week.

Salter pointed to a specific example with their UK subsidiary. At the time of implementation, the subsidiary’s existing Sage 300 product was better suited for local VAT tax requirements. Instead of forcing a fit, they waited. “We pivoted and decided not to put our UK subsidiary on Sage Intacct until the product could be further developed,” she said.

This forward-looking, adaptable approach excites Salter the most, especially with the recent announcements about Sage Copilot and AI. “I love a partner that is not just meeting you where you are but providing something that you didn’t even know you needed,” she remarked.

For the LPGA, finance transformation is not the end goal. It’s a critical enabler of its core mission. As Salter concluded, “Our mission is simple: to empower women and change their lives through the game of golf. So, if anyone can come alongside us and help drive that mission home, we’re excited about that opportunity.”

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What This Means for ERP Insiders

Embrace composable ERP as a practical reality. The monolithic, all-or-nothing ERP implementation is no longer the only path. The LPGA’s decision to temporarily keep its UK subsidiary on a different system demonstrates the power of a flexible, phased approach. For ERP professionals, this means focusing on incremental value and choosing partners that allow building a tech stack that fits the business’s unique, evolving needs rather than forcing the company to fit the software.

User trust is the gateway to AI adoption. Sage’s investment in AI and tools like Sage Copilot is exciting, but Salter’s perspective underscores a critical truth: adoption hinges on trust. Before finance teams embrace AI for complex forecasting, the system must prove its reliability on foundational tasks. By automating and perfecting processes like financial consolidation, Sage is building the credibility needed for users to trust its AI-driven insights eventually. The lesson is clear: build trust in the basics first, and the leap to advanced AI will feel like a natural next step, not a risk.

The true ROI of ERP is redeployed human intellect. A modern ERP’s most powerful business case is process efficiency and elevating the human workforce. Salter’s focus on giving time back so her team can drive the business forward is the ultimate goal for most finance organizations. For ERP professionals building an investment case, the narrative should shift from cost savings to value creation. A successful implementation unleashes an organization’s workforce from the drudgery of manual tasks to focus on strategic analysis, innovation, and direct impact on the organization’s mission.

 

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