The rally for stocks and crypto following Donald Trump’s U.S. election win is a head fake that diverts attention from several investing and personal finance pain points ahead.

Mr. Trump was seen as better for stocks than Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, and he’s thought to be a booster of crypto currency. The S&P 500 and several cryptocurrencies surged in morning trading on Wednesday, but signs of trouble were there if you looked for them in the bond market.

Investors sold U.S. Treasury bonds, which has the effect of making bond yields rise. Why we care about bond yields in the United States: They have a big influence on bonds here in Canada and, in turn, on the cost of mortgages.

Mortgage rates are well off their recent peaks, but still well above the level where many homeowners locked in several years ago. Waves of these homeowners will renew mortgages in the next 12 months, and they have to be wondering how much more they’ll be required to pay. Events in the bond market suggest further mortgage rate cuts aren’t imminent, a point worth noting if you’re on the housing market sidelines waiting for lower borrowing costs.

Stocks rise and fall on expectations for corporate profits, while bonds are dependent on how investors view economic prospects, including inflation. Mr. Trump’s plan to introduce tariffs on imports is considered inflationary because it will increase the cost of imported goods, while also potentially slowing growth.

Something else investors worry about is the creditworthiness of bond issuers, an area where the United States is generating concern through its US$35-trillion debt. Neither Mr. Trump nor Ms. Harris focused on government debts and deficits in the election campaign, but his policies were judged as adding more to overall debt levels. There’s justifiable concern about Canadian government’s finances, but the U.S. is in worse shape.

Without attention to government debt in the United States, it’s possible that bond yields could rise from current levels. The Bank of Canada and U.S. Federal Reserve will keep lowering their benchmark interest rates, which in turn will push down rates for variable-rate mortgages, lines of credit and floating-rate loans. But bond yields are a bigger influence on fixed-rate mortgages, which happen to be a popular pick right now.

A takeaway for homeowners from these developments is that variable-rate mortgages are worth a look. If you go variable, each Bank of Canada rate cut – and there are several expected over the remainder of this year and next – will lower your borrowing costs.

Another post-election pain point is the Canadian dollar, which has dropped to 71.9 US cents as of Wednesday morning from 74.2 US cents in late September. Part of the reason for that is that money flows are drawn to the higher interest rates in the United States. A five-year Canada bond had a yield of 3.1 per cent early Wednesday, while a comparable U.S. Treasury bond had a yield of 4.3 per cent.

But Canada’s lack of economic competitiveness also contributes to its dollar weakness. If a Trump government offers tax cuts to business and removes regulations, then we may see additional downward pressure on the dollar. Now seems a good time to buy some U.S. currency if you plan to head south this winter.

Stocks had a great run Wednesday morning on the Trump win, but the comparative returns for the U.S. and Canadian markets suggests another pain point. The S&P 500 was up 1.7 per cent by late morning, while the S&P/TSX composite index was up just 0.3 per cent.

In addition to being seen as friendly for business, Mr. Trump is also regarded as someone who will have policies favouring the mega-size tech companies that are dominant in the S&P 500 and non-existent in the S&P/TSX composite.

The Canadian market has benefited lately from a rebound in blue-chip dividend stocks, but that was driven by the decline in interest rates on bonds. Sticky bond yields could limit near-term gains for dividend stocks.

The rally in the price of bitcoin, ethereum, dogecoin and other cryptocurrencies was a win for investors holding these speculative assets. But if you’re a traditioal investor or money manager who has avoided them, prepare for FOMO, or fear of missing out. Crypto remains a non-essential portfolio holding, but has the potential to move beyond that if it becomes more widely adopted.

Are you a young Canadian with money on your mind? To set yourself up for success and steer clear of costly mistakes, listen to our award-winning Stress Test podcast.

By David Stanway

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Efforts by the United States and others to persuade more countries to contribute to a new global climate financing initiative risks undermining the Paris agreement, Singapore’s Environment Minister Grace Fu told Reuters on Wednesday.

Nearly 200 nations will gather in Baku, Azerbaijan for COP29 climate talks on Monday to thrash out the details of a deal known as the New Collective Quantified Goal, designed to deliver billions of dollars of climate finance to the regions that need it the most.

But the United States, Europe and others will only commit to the fund if the list of countries contributing to it is widened to include the likes of China, South Korea and Singapore, and the resulting deadlock could block progress during the talks.

Fu said there were “tough negotiations” going on about the definition and structure of the fund, but widening the donor base risks “unravelling” the Paris Agreement.

“The Paris Agreement has clear provisions … that talk about the responsibility of developed parties in supporting developing countries in mitigation and adaptation,” she said.

She said Singapore, which has already set up funds designed to speed up decarbonisation in Southeast Asia, would be willing to participate in the NCQG on a voluntary basis, but not as a “donor”.

The issue could be further complicated by the United States’ presidential election, with Donald Trump expected to withdraw from the Paris agreement for a second time if he is re-elected, narrowing the existing donor base.

Fu said it was too early to talk about the impact of the U.S. election on COP29, adding that Singapore hopes Washington will continue to be “involved, engaged and providing the necessary leadership”.

Also on the agenda in Baku will be Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, with countries still negotiating the small print on a global carbon credit market that will allow them to meet their climate goals by financing green projects beyond their borders.

There were hopes that Azerbaijan would be able to announce the completion of a key part of Article 6 in the first few days of COP29, which could build momentum for success elsewhere, but Fu said it was too early to say whether that would happen.

“The presidency has expressed their intention or their desire to see an early conclusion, and we, as co-facilitator are doing all we can to help bring that process forward,” she said.

“Obviously, there’s still a lot of work that needs to be done.”

(Reporting by David Stanway; Editing by Michael Perry)

NEW YORK, Nov. 05, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (together with its consolidated subsidiaries, “we,” “us,” “our,” “CGBD” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: CGBD) today announced its financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2024. Justin Plouffe, CGBD’s Chief Executive Officer said, “We delivered consistent performance in the third quarter of 2024, capitalizing on increased new deal activity and the strength of our existing portfolio companies. With another strong quarter of originations, we benefited from access to the broader Carlyle Global Credit Platform, as we supplemented our core cash flow strategy with differentiated deal flow and specialty lending capabilities. We remain disciplined in our investment and portfolio management approach and are committed to executing on our strategy of providing investors with resilient, stable cash flows and principal protection.”

Net investment income for the third quarter of 2024 was $0.47 per common share with Adjusted Net Investment Income Per Share⁽¹⁾ of $0.49 after adjusting for the acceleration of debt issuance costs relating to the 2015-1R CLO Reset (as defined below), net of incentive fees. Net asset value per common share decreased by 0.6% for the third quarter to $16.85 from $16.95 as of June 30, 2024. The total fair value of our investments was $1.7 billion as of September 30, 2024.

Dividends

On November 4, 2024, the Board of Directors declared a base quarterly common dividend of $0.40 per share plus a supplemental common dividend of $0.05 per share. The dividends are payable on January 17, 2025 to common stockholders of record on December 31, 2024.

On September 26, 2024, the Company declared a cash dividend on the Preferred Stock for the period from July 1, 2024 to September 30, 2024 in the amount of $0.438 per Preferred Share to the holder of record on September 30, 2024.

Conference Call

The Company will host a conference call at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, November 6, 2024 to discuss these quarterly financial results. The conference call will be available via public webcast via a link on Carlyle Secured Lending’s website and will also be available on our website soon after the call’s completion.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

On a supplemental basis, the Company is disclosing Adjusted Net Income Per Share, which is calculated and presented on a basis other than in accordance with GAAP (“non-GAAP”). The Company’s management uses this non-GAAP financial measure internally to analyze and evaluate financial results and performance and believes that this non-GAAP financial measure is useful to investors as an additional tool to evaluate ongoing results and trends for the Company and to review the Company’s performance without giving effect to one-time or non-recurring investment income and expense events, including the effect on incentive fees. The presentation of this non-GAAP measure is not intended to be a substitute for financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP and should not be considered in isolation.

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