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Frontier debt risks ‘going dark’ amid high costs and creative deals

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Frontier debt risks ‘going dark’ amid high costs and creative deals
  • Some governments seek alternative ways to raise cash
  • Emerging markets debt in focus at this week’s IMF World Bank meetings
  • Lack of transparency will raise costs for borrowers, say investors

LONDON/WASHINGTON, Oct 14 (Reuters) – The need for emerging economies to be more transparent about their debt is one issue uniting wealthy countries and multilateral lenders in a fractious, divided world where the international order and development finance face pressure.

The World Bank in June launched a call for “radical” debt transparency and the United States outlined transparency as a key goal for international financial institutions under President Donald Trump’s leadership.

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But in the past several years, the riskiest of those nations – so-called frontier market countries – have been taking on more private, complex and “creative” debt arrangements that inadvertently undercut the visibility of the terms of their debt.

“Everybody loves transparency…(but) whatever the confidentiality clauses say, we are seeing a lot less of the documentation of commercial bank and other private lending,” said Anna Gelpern, a law professor at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. who works on debt issues.

Collateralised lending to countries in strife that had dwindling options of raising funds causes particular issues, she added.

“That means that everything is going dark in terms of debt transparency.”

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LIMITED ACCESS FOR BORROWERS

Countries from Panama and Colombia to Angola and Cameroon have sought to weather double-digit bond yields by seeking less conventional borrowing – from private placements to resource-backed loans or complex debt swaps requiring collateral.

While this is not on its own untoward, it means the terms of the debt – the cost, the collateral and even sometimes the tenure or amount – are not public.

This contrasts with international bond issuance where terms of the borrowing are published.

Some investors say the borrowing is a smart, sophisticated way to wait out times when bond markets might not be so easily accessible. But others warn this makes the total debt pile less transparent.

“With regards to collateralized borrowing, these kinds of hidden instruments, institutions like the IMF should be very worried about it, because they really then make the concept of preferred creditor very complicated,” said Reza Baqir, head of sovereign advisory at Alvarez & Marsal.

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NET NEGATIVE, COST SAVING

The IMF estimated in a paper earlier this year that private lending to low-income countries outside international bonds as a percentage of their public and publicly guaranteed debt had risen to 10% by end-2023 from 6% at end-2010. Overall private lending – including international bond issuance – rose to 19% from 6%.

Victor Mourad of Citi said international bond issuance from Sub-Saharan African markets had been net negative – meaning governments raised less than they paid back – for the past three years.

Governments have sought cheaper funding sources – such as loans backed by development finance institutions such as the World Bank – and also more “creativity” via private placements and borrowing facilities in different currencies, though the alternatives they seek vary.

Nigeria has in the past secured oil-backed loans using crude oil cargoes as collateral. Angola opted for a $1 billion “total return swap” with JPMorgan, with privately placed bonds as collateral.

Aaron Grehan, co-head of emerging market debt with Aviva Investors, said Colombia and Panama had also avoided public debt markets, the former with dollar-bond buybacks and a total return swap, the latter with private placements.

Both had done well in these deals, he said, but will need to return to capital markets before too long due to the sheer amount they need. “You kick the can down the road,” he said.

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When they return to public markets, investors will need to unpick their debt to try to determine what governments can sustainably borrow and repay.

“We have to do the homework and figure out if what is happening makes sense,” said Elina Theodorakopoulou, managing director and portfolio manager with Manulife Investment Management.

“If there is not enough transparency, that will be translated into the yield that you have to face if you were to access the market.”

Countries themselves say the deals have saved them money. Angola is still deciding on whether to extend its total return swap with JPMorgan, despite getting stung with a temporary $200 million margin call when oil prices slid.

“The cost of those financings is lower than the Eurobond,” said Dorivaldo Teixeira, general director of the public debt management unit at Angola’s finance ministry, while acknowledging the risks involved.

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PUBLIC BORROWING, BUT HARDER TO ASSESS

At this week’s IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington, one of the issues the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable will seek to tackle is the trouble of restructuring private debt.

That has snared Zambia and Ghana in default for longer than expected.

Sources said governments and advisors underestimated how hard it would be to unpick, determining who holds it, on what terms and whether there was collateral which can put one borrower ahead in the queue. This complicates debt reworks, in which all borrowers, ostensibly, must get equal treatment.

“It raises risks,” said Thys Louw, a portfolio manager with Ninety One. “Anything that’s marginally opaque adds complexity.”

Reporting by Libby George and Karin Strohecker, Additional reporting by Nell Mackenzie; Editing by Andrea Ricci

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Cheers Financial Taps into AI to Build Credit – Los Angeles Business Journal

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Cheers Financial Taps into AI to Build Credit – Los Angeles Business Journal

A credit-building tool fintech founder Ken Lian built out of personal need just got an artificial intelligence-powered upgrade.

Lian and co-founders Zhen Wang and Qingyi Li recently launched Cheers Financial – a startup run out of Pasadena-based Idealab Inc. which combines fast-tracked credit-building with “immigrant-friendly” onboarding.

“Our mission is really to try to make credit fair to individuals who want to have financial freedom in the U.S.,” Lian said.

After coming to the U.S. as an international student from China in 2008, Lian said he struggled for four years to get a bank’s approval for a credit card. Since 2021, the USC alumnus’ fintech ventures have aimed to break down the hurdles immigrants like him often face in accessing and building credit.

Since its launch in November, Cheers Financial has seen “healthy growth,” Lian said, with thousands using its secured personal loan product to build credit through automated monthly payments. At the end of the 24-month loan period, users get their principal back minus about 12.2% interest.

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“The product is designed to automate the entire flow, so users basically can set and forget it,” Lian said.

Cheers, partnering with Minnesota-based Sunrise Banks, boasts an average 21-point increase in credit scores within a couple of months among its users coming in with “fair” scores from the high 500s to mid-600s.

With help from AI data summary and matching, the company reports to the three major credit bureaus every 15 days – two times as frequent as popular credit-building app Kikoff. Lian hopes to shave that down to seven days.

Cheers is far from Lian, Wang and Li’s first step into alternative financial tools. An earlier venture launched in 2021, Cheese Inc., served a similar goal as an online platform providing credit-building loans alongside other services, including a zero-fee debit card with cash back.

Cheese folded when the company it used as its middle layer, Synapse Financial Technologies, collapsed in April 2024 and locked thousands of users out of their savings.

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For Lian and other fintech founders, Synapse’s fall was a wake-up call to the gaps and risks of digital banking’s status quo. As he geared up for Cheers, Lian knew in-house models and a direct company-to-bank relationship were key.

“That allows us to build a very secure and stable platform for our users,” Lian said.

Despite cooling investment in fintech, Cheers nabbed backing from San Francisco-based Better Tomorrow Ventures’ $140 million fintech fund. Automating base-level processes with AI has given the company a chance to operate at a lower cost, Lian said.

“You don’t need to build everything from the ground up,” Lian said. “You can let AI build the basic part, and then you optimize from that.”

Strong demand from high-quality users who spread the word to friends and relatives has helped, too. Some have even started Cheers accounts before arriving in the U.S., Lian said, to get a head start on building credit.

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How The Narrative Around ConocoPhillips (COP) Is Shifting With New Research And Cash Flow Concerns

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How The Narrative Around ConocoPhillips (COP) Is Shifting With New Research And Cash Flow Concerns
ConocoPhillips’ fair value estimate has been adjusted slightly, moving from about US$112.37 to roughly US$111.48, as recent research blends confidence in the company’s execution and balance sheet with more cautious views on crude pricing and near term cash flow. The core discount rate has been held steady at 6.956%, while modest tweaks to revenue growth assumptions, from 1.92% to 1.69%, reflect tempered expectations around demand and realizations that some firms are flagging. Stay tuned to…
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Africa’s climate finance rules are growing, but they’re weakly enforced – new research

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Africa’s climate finance rules are growing, but they’re weakly enforced – new research

Climate change is no longer just about melting ice or hotter summers. It is also a financial problem. Droughts, floods, storms and heatwaves damage crops, factories and infrastructure. At the same time, the global push to cut greenhouse gas emissions creates risks for countries that depend on oil, gas or coal.

These pressures can destabilise entire financial systems, especially in regions already facing economic fragility. Africa is a prime example.

Although the continent contributes less than 5% of global carbon emissions, it is among the most vulnerable. In Mozambique, repeated cyclones have destroyed homes, roads and farms, forcing banks and insurers to absorb heavy losses. Kenya has experienced severe droughts that hurt agriculture, reducing farmers’ ability to repay loans. In north Africa, heatwaves strain electricity grids and increase water scarcity.

These physical risks are compounded by “transition risks”, like declining revenues from fossil fuel exports or higher borrowing costs as investors worry about climate instability. Together, they make climate governance through financial policies both urgent and complex. Without these policies, financial systems risk being caught off guard by climate shocks and the transition away from fossil fuels.

This is where climate-related financial policies come in. They provide the tools for banks, insurers and regulators to manage risks, support investment in greener sectors and strengthen financial stability.

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Regulators and banks across Africa have started to adopt climate-related financial policies. These range from rules that require banks to consider climate risks, to disclosure standards, green lending guidelines, and green bond frameworks. These tools are being tested in several countries. But their scope and enforcement vary widely across the continent.

My research compiles the first continent-wide database of climate-related financial policies in Africa and examines how differences in these policies – and in how binding they are – affect financial stability and the ability to mobilise private investment for green projects.

A new study I conducted reviewed more than two decades of policies (2000–2025) across African countries. It found stark differences.

South Africa has developed the most comprehensive framework, with policies across all categories. Kenya and Morocco are also active, particularly in disclosure and risk-management rules. In contrast, many countries in central and west Africa have introduced only a few voluntary measures.

Why does this matter? Voluntary rules can help raise awareness and encourage change, but on their own they often do not go far enough. Binding measures, on the other hand, tend to create stronger incentives and steadier progress. So far, however, most African climate-related financial policies remain voluntary. This leaves climate risk as something to consider rather than a firm requirement.

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Uneven landscape

In Africa, the 2015 Paris Agreement marked a clear turning point. Around that time, policy activity increased noticeably, suggesting that international agreements and standards could help create momentum and visibility for climate action. The expansion of climate-related financial policies was also shaped by domestic priorities and by pressure from international investors and development partners.

But since the late 2010s, progress has slowed. Limited resources, overlapping institutional responsibilities and fragmented coordination have made it difficult to sustain the earlier pace of reform.

Looking across the continent, four broad patterns have emerged.

A few countries, such as South Africa, have developed comprehensive frameworks. These include:

  • disclosure rules (requirements for banks and companies to report how climate risks affect them)

  • stress tests (simulations of extreme climate or transition scenarios to see whether banks would remain resilient).

Others, including Kenya and Morocco, are steadily expanding their policy mix, even if institutional capacity is still developing.

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Some, such as Nigeria and Egypt, are moderately active, with a focus on disclosure rules and green bonds. (Those are bonds whose proceeds are earmarked to finance environmentally friendly projects such as renewable energy, clean transport or climate-resilient infrastructure.)

Finally, many countries in central and west Africa have introduced only a limited number of measures, often voluntary in nature.

This uneven landscape has important consequences.

The net effect

In fossil fuel-dependent economies such as South Africa, Egypt and Algeria, the shift away from coal, oil and gas could generate significant transition risks. These include:

  • financial instability, for example when asset values in carbon-intensive sectors fall sharply or credit exposures deteriorate

  • stranded assets, where fossil fuel infrastructure and reserves lose their economic value before the end of their expected life because they can no longer be used or are no longer profitable under stricter climate policies.

Addressing these challenges may require policies that combine investment in new, low-carbon sectors with targeted support for affected workers, communities and households.

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Climate finance affects people directly. When droughts lead to loan defaults, local banks are strained. Insurance companies facing repeated payouts after floods may raise premiums. Pension funds invested in fossil fuels risk devaluations as these assets lose value. Climate-related financial policies therefore matter not only for regulators and markets, but also for jobs, savings, and everyday livelihoods.

At the same time, there are opportunities.

Firstly, expanding access to green bonds and sustainability-linked loans can channel private finance into renewable energy, clean transport, or resilient infrastructure.

Secondly, stronger disclosure rules can improve transparency and investor confidence.

Thirdly, regional harmonisation through common reporting standards, for example, would reduce fragmentation. This would make it easier for Africa to attract global climate finance.

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Looking ahead

International forums such as the UN climate conferences (COP) and the G20 have helped to push this agenda forward, mainly by setting expectations rather than hard rules. These initiatives create pressure and guidance. But they remain soft law. Turning them into binding, enforceable rules still depends on decisions taken by national regulators and governments.

International partners such as the African Development Bank and the African Union could support coordination by promoting continental standards that define what counts as a green investment. Donors and multilateral lenders may also provide technical expertise and financial support to countries with weaker systems, helping them move from voluntary guidelines toward more enforceable rules.

South Africa, already a regional leader, could share its experience with stress testing and green finance frameworks.

Africa also has the potential to position itself as a hub for renewable energy and sustainable finance. With vast solar and wind resources, expanding urban centres, and an increasingly digital financial sector, the continent could leapfrog towards a greener future if investment and regulation advance together.

Success stories in Kenya’s sustainable banking practices and Morocco’s renewable energy expansion show that progress is possible when financial systems adapt.

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What happens next will matter greatly. By expanding and enforcing climate-related financial rules, Africa can reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks while unlocking opportunities in green finance and renewable energy.

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