Could consumer-facing tech behemoths (such as Alphabet, Apple or Meta) disintermediate financial … [+] services firms?
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The rise of generative AI has led to much hand-wringing and discussion about the potential for the technology to disrupt industries and eliminate broad swathes of human jobs. But the impact of the technology will vary from industry to industry, so it’s important to look beyond the high-level talk around disruption and to think through exactly how it will change the financial services sector.
In the case of financial services, the impact of generative AI can be simplified into three possible future scenarios: 1) non-financial tech firms develop a dominant generative AI-based personal assistant and disintermediate financial firms, 2) no disintermediation, but the technology further entrenches the dominance of the largest global banks, and 3) no firms manage to establish dominant generative AI assistants, and the technology becomes commonplace without drastically altering market share.
While we can’t predict the future, it’s essential that financial services organizations think through the three possible outcomes to develop long-term plans for how their business would react to each of these scenarios.
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Before diving into this topic, a caveat. The goal of this article is to to make the subject approachable for someone who is not familiar with the nuances of generative AI. This article will not discuss the technical developments that would drive these outcomes – e.g., whether it becomes cheaper and easier to build a proprietary large language model (LLM). This article will guide non-technical individuals through how generative AI will impact the financial services industry.
Scenario one: non-financial tech player(s) take a dominant position
One possible outcome for generative AI technology is that the consumer-facing tech behemoths (such as Alphabet, Apple or Meta) and/or a breakthrough tech startup develop consumers’ go-to personal assistant for a very wide range of life tasks, including personal finance. Consumer behavior changes, and the average person looks to the leading generative AI-based virtual assistant(s) with dominant market share to help them with questions and concerns.
This outcome sees generative AI technology evolve in such a way that tech firms are able to develop a superior personal assistant that is so advanced it incentivizes consumers to almost exclusively use their personal assistant. This assistant would monitor consumers’ affairs (via linked outside accounts) and would provide advice when asked questions like “how can I improve my financial situation?” or “could my savings be earning more?” This development would disintermediate financial services firms and the assistant would be able to influence consumers’ financial decisions and behaviors.
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An advanced AI-based general personal assistant with dominant market share would disintermediate … [+] financial services firms.
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If this scenario becomes reality, the response of financial services firms to this disintermediation partly depends on how regulation shakes out and whether AI assistants can earn referral fees. Beyond the referral question, in the long-term this outcome would likely make the financial services industry much more cutthroat.
In this scenario, financial services firms would need to become far more innovative and would need to develop compelling and unique products and services. Financial services firms would need to incentivize clients to actually log into their website and app and not just rely on their personal assistant. A generic product lineup and a generic client experience would gradually lose market share in a world driven by tech firms’ high-performing virtual assistants.
According to Remco Janssen, Founder and CEO of European tech news media company Silicon Canals, “in past tech hype cycles, the established tech giants were often slow to react. When it comes to generative AI technology, however, the largest firms have acted quickly. Tech behemoths like Apple, Google and Amazon
Amazon also have an advantage since they have access to consumer payment data. The most challenging outcome for financial services firms would be a situation where one-to-three leading tech players become the dominant force in generative AI, like Google and Apple’s dominance of mobile operating systems.”
Scenario two: the largest financial firms use gen AI to further entrench their dominance
In this scenario, generative AI technology develops in such a way that tech companies do not disintermediate financial services firms, but the costs and complexity of advanced AI technology allows the largest global banks to gain a competitive edge over relatively smaller rivals in the industry. For an example of the gulf between the top financial services firms and the next tier of financial institutions, as of May 10th, the market capitalization of JPMorgan Chase ($570.80 billion) and Bank of America ($300.69 billion) both exceed the combined market capitalization of US Bancorp, PNC, Capital One and Truist. The combined market capitalization of those four institutions is “only” approximately $235 billion.
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The largest banks can dedicate far more resources generative AI. The CEOs of Wells Fargo, Bank of … [+] America and J.P. Morgan Chase are pictured here.
CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
It may turn out that the largest financial firms–those which can afford expensive engineering talent and cloud computing resources–can develop meaningfully more powerful generative AI-based financial assistants than the average financial services firm and the industry’s third-party vendors. If the largest global banks can offer a superior generative AI-based financial assistant, they will use this offering to further entrench their dominance of the industry and to win market share from relatively smaller firms.
Scenario three: no dominant gen AI assistants emerge
The final scenario sees generative AI technology become somewhat of a commodity and no firm develops a meaningfully superior generative AI assistant. Generative AI-based assistants become a standard feature of financial services websites and apps without fundamentally disrupting the industry and changing market share dynamics. Financial services firms may even end up relying on multiple third-party generative models simultaneously, calling upon different models depending on the user’s needs.
In this scenario, financial services firms would need to be thoughtful about how they optimize their generative AI assistant to minimize costs and maximize revenue. Financial services firms would work to continually improve their generative AI’s ability to handle customer service questions (preventing more expensive queries to the customer service call center) and to drive desirable actions (e.g., establishing direct deposit, opening a new account, etc.). While this third scenario presents less of a threat to the average financial services firm, developing a high-quality generative AI assistant still represents a large and complex undertaking.
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If no dominant generative AI assistants emerge, firms would look outperform peers via superior user … [+] experience and product design.
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According to Dr Andreas Rung, CEO and Founder of Ergomania, “banks and financial institutions have a tendency to keep big tech initiatives in the experimental/ideation phase for too long. Time is of the essence when it comes to generative AI. Your organization needs to move quickly to deploy a generative AI assistant to your customer base. In order to keep pace with the competition, your generative AI assistant must also become a seamless part of the UX and customer experience.”
Gen AI has the potential to upend financial services, and firms must start planning for future scenarios now
Only time will tell how generative AI technology develops and which of these three scenarios becomes reality. But your organization should start to think through these outcomes and how to react in each situation. Could your organization restructure and make a massive investment in developing a cutting-edge generative AI assistant if that becomes necessary? If your firm uses a third-party AI vendor, what are the “switching costs” if your firm “backs the wrong horse” and must make a change in order to keep pace with the leading firms? In each of these scenarios, how would your firm adjust the human workforce? It is better to start planning now than to be reactive and scrambling to catch up to changing market dynamics.
According to Milan De Reede, Founder and CEO of Nano GPT, “I see our customers’ preferences shift in real time as new generative AI models and updates are released. There’s no clear “winner” as of May 2024. Our customers seem to prefer different generative AI models for different tasks. At some point in the future, your firm may need to change your generative AI infrastructure and approach relatively quickly depending on which of these three scenarios becomes reality.”
Before arriving on the Hilltop, Lily Nguyen (MSFS’26) spent two years living and working in rural Japan through the Japan Exchange and Teaching (JET) Program. Based in a small community in Kumamoto, she taught English in local schools and liaised with national officials to advocate for improved labor standards for fellow participants—an experience that ultimately inspired her to come to Georgetown, accompanied by a broad interest in climate change and international affairs.
“I’ve always wanted to live in Washington, DC, and when I decided to pursue graduate school in international affairs, I knew I wanted to be at the best of the best,” she says.
As she prepares to walk across the stage this May to receive her Master of Science in Foreign Service degree with a concentration in Science, Technology and International Affairs, those once-broad interests will have sharpened into a more defined path. Through coursework, research and hands-on policy experience, Nguyen has developed a focused commitment to climate finance and carbon markets.
Refining global interests through community and coursework
As the daughter of Vietnamese refugees, Nguyen grew up in a diverse immigrant community in Wichita, Kansas, surrounded by people who were constantly bridging cultures, languages and shared values.
That environment made global issues feel personal from a young age and sparked her interest in international affairs, she shares. While she initially chose the MSFS program for its rigor and leadership in international affairs, it was that same instinct for connection that ultimately confirmed her decision. “I wanted to be surrounded by ambitious classmates and faculty who take global challenges seriously, and MSFS absolutely delivers that,” she says. “At the same time, it’s a surprisingly close-knit community.”
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Nguyen attended a Seijinshiki (Coming of Age Ceremony) at the Embassy of Japan, celebrating cultural tradition and U.S.–Japan friendship, through Georgetown’s Japanese Language Department.
Early in the program, Nguyen participated in the Gettysburg Leadership Staff Ride, an interactive seminar sponsored by Georgetown’s Department of Government held at Gettysburg National Military Park designed to highlight applicable lessons of leadership, tactics and strategy, communications, use of terrain and the psychology of persons in battle. This experience, she says, set the tone for “that balance of history, strategy and reflection” throughout her time in the MSFS program. At the same time, she continued developing her Japanese proficiency, progressing from intermediate coursework to Business Japanese and strengthening both her policy vocabulary and professional communication skills.
“One of my favorite weekly traditions has been the Japanese language table, where students of all proficiency levels grab a free drink from the MUG and practice speaking together in a relaxed setting,” she says. She credits her instructors—Professors Yoshiko Mori, Motoko Omori Lavallee and Kumi Sato—with supporting her growth inside and outside the classroom.
Her favorite class, however, was Introduction to GIS and Spatial Analysis, taught by Professor Julia Marrs. Covering the fundamentals of Geographic Information Systems, the course introduced tools increasingly used in climate science, urban planning and security analysis. Nguyen says Marrs’ kindness and clarity “made what initially felt like an intimidating technical subject both accessible and exciting,” while the class itself transformed how she approaches global challenges by equipping her with spatial tools to visualize patterns in climate vulnerability, infrastructure and security risk.
Nguyen presented her final project for her Intro to GIS class, “Weathering the Ring of Fire,” which mapped climate hazards on military installations in the Indo-Pacific.
“Being able to map data and see how geography shapes policy made issues like climate security and humanitarian resilience feel tangible and measurable in a new way,” she says.
Her final project for Marrs’ class, “Weathering the Ring of Fire: Mapping Climate Hazards on Military Installations in the Indo-Pacific,” applied those lessons to examine how climate risks intersect with defense strategy. The project sharpened her interest in using geospatial analysis to visualize complex climate security dynamics and demonstrated how technical tools can inform strategic decision-making.
Nguyen also credits Professor Theresa Sabonis-Helf, her STIA concentration chair, with profoundly impacting her time at Georgetown. Generous with her time, Sabonis-Helf spent hours in conversation with Nguyen discussing everything from favorite classes to larger questions about energy security and how to remain hopeful about the future.
“She consistently encouraged me to pursue experiential learning beyond the classroom,” she says, crediting Sabonis-Helf with her STIA-sponsored visits to the Calvert Cliffs Nuclear Power Plant and NearStar Fusion to learn more about advancements in nuclear energy and fusion technology. “Those experiences made the policy discussions we had in class feel tangible and immediate, and they deepened my interest in the role of advanced energy technologies in global security.”
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Nguyen toured the Calvert Cliffs Nuclear Power Plant, exploring the role of nuclear energy in climate mitigation and energy security.
Growing through leadership, service and global dialogue
Throughout her MSFS journey, Nguyen has come across multiple opportunities that make her experience feel full circle, like volunteering with the Kakehashi Program, which connected back to her time living in Japan.
At the MSFS Winter Ball with her classmates from Professor Paul Miller’s International Relations Theory class.
At Georgetown, she served as communications and media head for the SFS Energy Club, a graduate teaching assistant for a course on Energy Transitions and a graduate student fellow with the Initiative on Catholic Social Thought and Public Life. In the latter role, Nguyen helped organize public dialogues and programs on major political and social issues. She was also elected as an MSFS student representative and helped facilitate communication between students and MSFS program leadership. One of her favorite responsibilities was organizing the annual MSFS Winter Ball at the Mexican Cultural Institute—a formal winter celebration where students, faculty and alumni come together to connect, celebrate and network, all in their finest attire.
Beyond the Hilltop, Nguyen gained professional experience with USAID, the National Cherry Blossom Festival and the Holy See Permanent Observer Mission to the United Nations, which she described as feeling like a family. Working at the intersection of climate change, migration, technology governance and humanity, she supported preparations for the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development and the High-Level Political Forum while with the mission in New York City—gaining firsthand exposure to multilateral negotiations and development finance discussions.
“In true UN fashion, we even had our own ‘side events,’ from Mets baseball games and movie nights to one memorable afternoon when we were invited to a private rooftop overlooking Times Square and surprised with a projection of Pope Leo XIV’s face on a massive Times Square screen,” she recalls. “The incredible home-cooked lunches didn’t hurt either.”
At the National Cherry Blossom Festival’s 2026 Press Conference, Nguyen spoke with DC’s Secretary of State Kimberly Bassett about the festival’s role in strengthening U.S.-Japan friendship and cultural exchange.
Seated behind the Holy See nameplate during the High-Level Political Forum at the United Nations, where she supported the Mission’s work on human rights and development issues.
These experiences have deepened her interest in how climate vulnerability intersects with fragile and crisis-affected settings. But beyond the professional opportunities, it’s the everyday moments, like running into program leadership in the halls, where “ambition and kindness coexist so naturally,”that made the program feel accessible and supportive in a way she hadn’t expected.
Where global policy meets friendship and community
With graduation approaching, Nguyen hopes to pursue a career at the intersection of climate security and development finance, helping design and deploy financial mechanisms that strengthen resilience in vulnerable and fragile contexts. Building on her experiences, she also hopes to remain active in spaces where policy, finance and ethical leadership converge, while continuing to build bridges between the United States and Japan and explore the moral and diplomatic dimensions of global governance.
“Together, they helped me see how finance, security, and diplomacy can reinforce one another in global policymaking,” she says. “MSFS put me at the center of global policy conversations while grounding me in a close, supportive community. It’s rigorous, fast-paced and full of opportunity.”
Nguyen got to meet the Irish Taoiseach Simon Harris during his visit to Georgetown.
“I’ll miss the energy of being in a place where global policy feels immediate and alive,” she says.
Looking back on her time at Georgetown, Nguyen recalls highlights such as meeting inspiring public figures, like the Irish Taoiseach and the Mongolian Apostolic Prefect of Ulaanbaatar; competing in Model NATO; and winning first place in the Global Social Innovation Lab Pitch Competition with her teammates. But some of her favorite memories are the smaller, lighter moments—getting overly competitive during classroom negotiations and war games, hosting mini potlucks in her ethics class or organizing a zoo trip with her cohort to practice a little “panda diplomacy.”
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“There’s something special about walking from class to an embassy event or leaving a seminar discussion and heading to a book talk with a policymaker whose work you just studied. Georgetown, and SFS in particular, makes the world feel both big and accessible at the same time.”
China is strengthening Hong Kong as a global gold trading hub to expand its role in gold markets, reinforce Hong Kong’s financial position, and gradually increase renminbi usage in commodity transactions. The shift could contribute to a more multipolar gold market that coexists with established Western financial centers rather than displacing them.
As U.S.–China strategic competition intensifies, most attention focuses on tariffs, export controls, semiconductors and military signaling in the Indo-Pacific. Yet an equally consequential transformation is unfolding in the architecture of global finance. Payment systems, clearing networks, benchmark indices and reserve assets are increasingly viewed not merely as market mechanisms but as instruments of national resilience and influence. Within this broader recalibration, China’s push to strengthen Hong Kong’s role as a global gold trading hub deserves careful attention.
At first glance, gold may seem an unlikely arena for geopolitical significance. It is an ancient asset, often perceived as a conservative hedge rather than a strategic lever. Yet gold occupies a unique dual role in the international system, functioning both as a commodity and as a monetary anchor. Central banks across advanced and emerging economies have increased gold purchases in recent years, reflecting a desire for diversification amid sanctions risk, currency volatility and systemic uncertainty. In a world where financial interdependence can become politicized, gold’s neutrality has regained appeal.
Global gold pricing today remains anchored in established Western hubs, particularly London and New York. These centers benefit from deep derivatives markets, trusted legal systems, and decades of accumulated liquidity. The infrastructure surrounding benchmark pricing, clearing and custody is embedded within a U.S.-dollar-centric system that has provided stability and efficiency for global investors for generations. The durability of this system rests on institutional credibility, rule of law and market depth, factors that are not easily replicated elsewhere.
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Yet the distribution of physical supply and demand has shifted. China is the world’s largest gold producer and one of its largest consumers. The mismatch between China’s real-economy weight and its influence over pricing benchmarks reflects a broader structural imbalance in global finance, where economic gravity is evolving faster than institutional architecture.
Beijing’s support for expanding gold trading functions in Hong Kong can be interpreted as a measured response to this imbalance. Hong Kong’s role is not incidental. Its common law framework, internationally recognized regulatory standards and convertible currency regime give it a hybrid character: sovereign Chinese territory with global financial connectivity. Enhancing its gold trading, storage, settlement, and derivatives ecosystem reinforces Hong Kong’s function as China’s primary international financial interface.
From a geo-economic perspective, three objectives appear to converge.
First, strengthening Hong Kong’s gold market deepens the city’s integration into global commodity finance at a time when its strategic role is under scrutiny. A vibrant gold hub would expand liquidity pools, create new financial products, and reinforce Hong Kong’s relevance in global asset allocation. Rather than representing fragmentation, additional nodes in global trading networks can increase redundancy and resilience, reducing systemic concentration risk.
Second, gold trading offers a pragmatic channel for incremental renminbi internationalization. Currency internationalization is not achieved through declarations; it is built gradually through usage, liquidity, and confidence. If some gold transactions, particularly those involving mainland institutions or emerging market partners, are settled in offshore renminbi, this would represent diversification rather than displacement. The dollar’s dominance rests on deep capital markets and institutional trust; incremental expansion of renminbi settlement in specific sectors does not automatically undermine that foundation.
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Third, expanding gold-related infrastructure in Hong Kong provides a degree of insulation from geopolitical shocks. Over the past decade, financial sanctions have become a more prominent feature of international statecraft. From Washington’s perspective, sanctions are a legitimate tool to uphold national and allied security interests. From Beijing’s perspective, excessive reliance on external financial nodes creates vulnerabilities. Developing alternative trading and clearing capacity can therefore be viewed less as a challenge to existing systems and more as strategic risk management in an era of heightened mistrust.
This brings us to the central question for U.S.–China relations: Is commodity pricing power destined to become another zero-sum battleground, or can it evolve within a framework of competitive coexistence?
Pricing power carries influence. Benchmarks shape how contracts are written, how derivatives are structured and how reserves are valued. They influence capital allocation decisions across continents. Historically, the concentration of commodity pricing in a handful of Western centers has reinforced the centrality of the dollar in global trade and finance. As economic weight shifts toward Asia, pressure for greater regional representation in pricing mechanisms is a predictable outcome.
However, greater plurality does not necessarily equate to fragmentation. Energy markets already demonstrate coexistence among multiple pricing references across regions. Financial markets are capable of sustaining parallel benchmarks serving different investor bases and time zones. In the case of gold, a deepening Asian trading hub could complement rather than replace established Western centers, reflecting the reality of a 24-hour global market.
Hong Kong is unlikely to displace London or New York in the foreseeable future. The credibility, liquidity and trust embedded in those markets are substantial. But Hong Kong’s development could gradually contribute to a more multipolar ecosystem in which Asian trading hours, regional demand dynamics and renminbi-linked products play a more visible role. Such evolution would mirror broader changes in the global economy rather than signal systemic rupture.
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For the United States, this shift underscores the importance of sustaining the strengths that underpin dollar leadership: transparent governance, open capital markets, legal predictability, and financial innovation. The attractiveness of U.S. financial markets has historically been its most durable strategic asset. A competitive global environment can reinforce those strengths if approached with confidence rather than defensiveness.
For China, credibility will be decisive. International investors require regulatory clarity, enforceable contracts, and unrestricted access to liquidity. If Hong Kong’s gold hub is perceived as market-driven and rule-based, it can attract global participation. If, however, benchmarks are seen as politicized or opaque, investor trust will erode. Financial influence ultimately rests on confidence, not decree.
The broader significance lies in how both countries manage structural change. As economic power diffuses, financial governance will inevitably adjust. Attempts to freeze the status quo are unlikely to succeed indefinitely, but unmanaged transitions risk instability. Dialogue on financial stability, transparency in commodity markets and technical cooperation between regulators could help ensure that competition remains bounded and predictable.
Commodity pricing power may indeed emerge as a subtle but consequential frontier in U.S.–China financial relations. Yet frontiers are not inherently battlefields. They can also serve as laboratories for adaptation. If Hong Kong’s expanding role in gold trading contributes to diversification without destabilization, it may offer a model for how major powers can pursue strategic interests while preserving systemic stability.
In a world confronting shared challenges, from debt vulnerabilities to climate transition and technological disruption, neither the United States nor China benefits from a fractured financial order. Gold’s resurgence as a reserve asset reflects a collective search for stability. Ensuring that the infrastructure surrounding it remains transparent, resilient, and interconnected is a common interest.
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Ultimately, the evolution of gold trading in Hong Kong symbolizes a broader reality: the global financial system is entering a more distributed phase. How Washington and Beijing respond will shape not only their bilateral relationship but the durability of the international monetary system itself.
Student loan refinancing is often billed as a way to expedite and simplify student loan repayment. And it certainly can be: By replacing your existing loans with a new one, you can potentially score a lower interest rate, and you will have just one payment due date to keep track of. But refinancing is not the right strategy for everyone.
In general, it’s a move that tends to make sense if you have private student loans and if your credit score and income are “high enough to qualify you for a lender’s lowest interest rates,” said NerdWallet. However, in the following four instances, you may want to reconsider or at least think twice.
1. You have federal loans and may want those benefits
While technically you can refinance either private or federal student loans, refinancing federal loans is “riskier” because when you do, “you’re no longer eligible for federal benefits and repayment options,” said U.S. News & World Report. This includes options like income-driven repayment plans, where your payments are modified based on your income and family size, as well as temporary repayment relief options like student loan forbearance.
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Even if you do not need those options right now, it is important to consider whether there is any chance you will down the road. For instance, “if you lose your job or have to take a pay cut, making student loan payments can become more difficult, especially because private lenders don’t offer much support in times of need,” said Student Loan Planner.
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2. You are pursuing student loan forgiveness
Also under the umbrella of federal benefits you will lose if you refinance — though worth calling out on its own — is student loan forgiveness. “Refinancing federal loans makes them ineligible for federal loan programs including Public Service Loan Forgiveness and Teacher Loan Forgiveness,” said NerdWallet.
If you are progressing along on either of those options — or if you are far along on an income-driven repayment plan, which will wipe away any remaining debt after 20 or 25 years of payments — then refinancing is likely not in your best interest.
3. Your interest rate would not change much
For refinancing to make sense savings-wise, the interest rate you get on your new refinance loan needs to be noticeably lower than it is on your current loan(s). If your student loan “already has a decent rate or you don’t qualify for the lowest rates, the savings with your new loan may not be significant enough to bother with refinancing,” said Student Loan Planner.
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Generally, the biggest factor in landing a much better rate when you refinance is solid credit, though lenders will also take into consideration your overall financial situation, including your income and your other debt obligations.
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4. You are close to paying off your loans
While you might think refinancing could help push you over the finish line on paying off your student loans, it may not work out that way. At this point in the game, “it doesn’t make sense to do something as risky as refinancing,” where you are changing up your loan terms entirely, and “because you’re close to paying down your debt, any refinancing benefits would be minimal,” said U.S. News & World Report. Instead, stay the course and relish the fact that the end is near.