Connect with us

Finance

DeepSeek sell-off reminds investors of the biggest earnings story holding up the stock market

Published

on

DeepSeek sell-off reminds investors of the biggest earnings story holding up the stock market

Monday’s swift sell-off in the markets serves as a reminder for not only what’s been the driving force of the bull market thus far, but also what investors have been expecting to come in 2025. It’s all about big tech earnings.

New developments from Chinese artificial intelligence DeepSeek sparked the rout as investor concerns over brewing competition in the AI space for Nvidia (NVDA) and other big tech names prompted pause in the US AI trade.

Nvidia stock dropped more than than 11%. Meanwhile fellow “Magnificent Seven” members Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL,GOOG), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) were all off 2% or more in early trading. Broadcom (AVGO), another large player in the AI space, was down more than 12%.

“When expectations are high, one skeptical headline can knock the market off its axis,” Ritholtz Wealth Management chief investment strategist Callie Cox wrote in a note on Monday. “That’s exactly what we’re seeing today.”

A slowdown in Big tech’s rapid earnings growth has been a risk to the market that strategists have been talking about for more than a year. With with index valuations near multi-decade highs and the 10 largest stocks comprising nearly 40% of the S&P 500, strategists have argued the rapid rally in stocks is increasingly on thin ice.

Advertisement

But unlike other risks like higher interest rates or sticky inflation, there hasn’t been a clear story for why the exceptional Big Tech earnings growth story would collapse. For now, this weekend’s DeepSeek AI model launch appears to be a tangible reason for investors to question whether the high earnings expectations will truly follow through.

In 2024, Magnificent Seven earnings outperformed the rest of the S&P 500 index by 30 percentage points, per research from Goldman Sachs. And while that margin is expected to slow in the year ahead, causing some to call for a broadening out of stock market returns, big tech earnings growth remains a key pillar of the bull market thesis.

The “Magnificent Seven” stocks are expected to grow earnings by 21.7% in the fourth quarter compared to the 9.7% earnings growth projected for the other 493 tech stocks. The year-over-year growth rate for the “Magnificent Seven” is expected to slow in the first quarter, before accelerating once more to year-over-year earnings growth of more than 24% in the third quarter.

As Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy at Barclays, pointed out in his 2025 outlook, given the large earnings growth expected for Big Tech throughout the year, the group is “likely to remain as critical of an EPS growth driver for the S&P 500 as the group was [in 2024].”

Advertisement

Advertisement

Finance

Asian stocks rise as US rate hopes soothe nerves after torrid week

Published

on

Asian stocks rise as US rate hopes soothe nerves after torrid week
Investors are awaiting the latest US inflation data this week that could guide the Federal Reserve’s decision-making on interest rates (RONALDO SCHEMIDT)

Asian markets mostly rose Monday as fresh hopes for a US interest rate cut provided some calm after last week’s rollercoaster ride fuelled by worries of a tech bubble.

The scramble to snap up all things AI has helped propel equities skywards this year, pushing several companies to records — with chip titan Nvidia last month becoming the first to top $5 trillion.

But investors have grown increasingly fearful that the vast sums pumped into the sector may have been overdone and could take some time to see profits realised, leading to warnings of a possible market correction.

That has been compounded in recent weeks by falling expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates for a third successive time next month as stubbornly high inflation overshadows weakness in the labour market.

However, risk appetite was given a much-needed shot in the arm Friday when New York Fed boss John Williams said he still sees “room for a further adjustment” at the bank’s December 9-10 policy meeting.

Advertisement

The remarks saw the chances of a cut shoot up to about 70 percent, from 35 percent earlier.

Focus is now on the release this week of the producer price index, which will be one of the last major data points before officials gather, with other key reports postponed or missed because of the government shutdown.

“The reading carries heightened importance following the postponement of October’s personal consumption expenditures report, originally scheduled for 26 November, which removes a key datapoint from policymakers’ assessment framework,” wrote IG market analyst Fabien Yip.

“A substantially stronger-than-expected PPI outcome could reinforce concerns that inflationary pressures remain entrenched, potentially constraining the Fed’s capacity to reduce rates in December despite recent labour market softening.”

After Wall Street’s rally Friday capped a torrid week for markets, Asia mostly started on the front foot.

Advertisement

Hong Kong and Seoul jumped more than one percent, while Sydney, Singapore, Wellington and Taipei were also well up, though Shanghai and Manila retreated. US futures advanced.

Tokyo was closed for a holiday.

But while the mood is a little less fractious than last week, uncertainty continues to weigh on riskier assets, with bitcoin hovering around $87,000.

While that is up from its seven-month low of $80,553, it is still sharply down from its record $126,200 hit last month.

– Key figures at around 0230 GMT –

Advertisement

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.4 percent at 25,568.08

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 3,829.71

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday

Dollar/yen: UP at 156.70 yen from 156.39 yen on Friday

Advertisement

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1515 from $1.1519

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3096 from $1.3107

Euro/pound: UP at 87.92 pence from 87.88 pence

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.2 percent at $57.93 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.2 percent at $62.44 per barrel

Advertisement

New York – Dow: UP 1.1 percent at 46,245.41 (close)

London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 9,539.71 (close)

dan/rsc

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Finance

Donating Stock Instead of Cash Is the 2-for-1 Deal You’ll Love at Tax Time

Published

on

Donating Stock Instead of Cash Is the 2-for-1 Deal You’ll Love at Tax Time

For many families, the holiday season comes with familiar rituals: untangling last year’s Christmas lights, decorating the tree and rediscovering ornaments we swore we’d organize “better next year.”

Charitable giving should feel just as joyful and natural — but for many households, it’s also a moment when good intentions collide with inefficient habits.

Continue Reading

Finance

Aerodrome Finance Hit by ‘Front-End’ Attack, Users Urged to Avoid Main Domain

Published

on

Aerodrome Finance Hit by ‘Front-End’ Attack, Users Urged to Avoid Main Domain

Aerodrome Finance, a leading decentralized exchange on Coinbase’s Base network with $400 million in total value locked, was targeted in a front-end attack late Friday, prompting urgent warnings for users to avoid its primary domains.

The incident appears to be a DNS hijacking of Aerodrome’s centralized domains, which allowed attackers to reroute users to lookalike phishing sites designed to trick them into signing malicious wallet transactions to separate them from their funds. Users are advised to instead rely on Aerodrome’s decentralized domains. Aerodrome has asked My.box, the domain provider, to contact them over a potential exploit of their systems.

These attacks do not compromise the underlying smart contracts, which manage user funds and protocol logic on-chain. At the time of writing, it’s unconfirmed whether the attack has led to any losses or how many users have been affected. Liquidity pools and protocol treasuries remain intact, according to Aerodrome.

Aerodrome’s team has been posting real-time updates on X, urging users not to access the compromised domains, aerodrome.finance and aerodrome.box, and instead use decentralized ENS mirrors like aero.drome.eth.limo. To reduce risk, the team recommends revoking recent token approvals using tools like Revoke.cash and avoiding signing any transactions from unverified domains.

New attack

Aerodrome has experienced similar front-end attacks before, including two in late 2023 that resulted in approximately $300,000 in user losses.

Advertisement

This latest attack comes just days after Aerodrome announced a merger with Velodrome, consolidating liquidity across Base and Optimism under the new “Aero” ecosystem. Despite the disruption, the AERO token price remained stable at around $0.67, up 2% over the last 24 hours.

The investigation is ongoing.

Continue Reading

Trending