Finance
Brace for ‘third wave’ of China bond defaults on financing costs, tighter policies: S&P
Local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and consumer companies could trigger a new round of debt failures because of their bigger maturity walls and greater refinancing needs, the rating company said in a report on Tuesday. The most recent distress cases are just entering full restructuring and more will come this year, it added.
“Policies aimed at reining in excessive leverage have driven two default waves so far,” Charles Chang, S&P’s Greater China country lead for corporate ratings, said in the report. “More policies with similar aims, scale and effects may lead to the next wave of defaults.”
Companies in the industrial and commodities sectors led the first wave between 2015 and 2016, when the country experienced 80 defaults triggered by excess capacity and asset management, said Chang, who co-authored the report with China country specialist Chang Li. Beijing’s “three red lines” policy has led to the second wave from 2021, with real estate developers accounting for most of the 108 default cases since, he added.
China Evergrande Group, which was ordered to liquidate in January amid an accounting scandal, first fell into distress in June 2021 after China squashed weak developers to contain systemic risks in the financial system. The cash crunch at Country Garden Holdings, once China’s largest home builder, showed the crisis has yet to run its course, S&P said in the report.
“Market access for privately owned firms has been negative for most months since 2021,” Chang said in the report. “For LGFVs, only higher rated firms were able to issue bonds but in lower volumes. Tightened regulation has restricted the market access of weaker LGFVs.”
Still, this year may mark a trough as the repayment amount drops, S&P said. Chinese entities have US$92 billion in offshore corporate bonds coming due, compared with US$111 billion that matured in 2023 and US$104 billion that will be payable in 2025, Chang said. As a result, China’s offshore default rate has fallen to 0.3 per cent in the first quarter, from 1.3 per cent in 2023 and 6.7 per cent in 2022.
Country Garden to raise funds for US$13 million bond coupon within grace period
Country Garden to raise funds for US$13 million bond coupon within grace period
China’s 5.3 per cent growth last quarter should not be viewed as a “significant slowdown”, said Kenny Ng, a strategist at Everbright Securities in Hong Kong. The country’s monetary policy is still quite accommodative and financing costs are still going down overall.
While there has been no default among onshore borrowers in the first three months of 2024, S&P said debt maturities are peaking this year at 8 trillion yuan (US$1.1 trillion). LGFVs face 3.5 trillion yuan of repayments, while the capital goods and power sectors each have 757 billion yuan and 738 billion yuan of obligations, respectively.
“Corporate debt is a rigid burden that is largely dependent on a company’s operations,” said Shen Meng, director at Beijing-based investment firm Chanson & Co. “The tightening of financing will further compress the flexibility of a company’s operations and shake the foundation of its financial stability.”
Finance
RFSD board approves financial assurances, reviews annual audit
The Roaring Fork School District Board of Education approved its annual financial accreditation assurances and reviewed the district’s 2024-25 audited financial statements during its meeting on Wednesday, according to a district news release.
The audit, presented by McMahan and Associates, found the district’s overall financial position to be stable and identified areas for continued improvement in internal controls and financial processes. The district’s General Fund balance remains above minimum levels required by board policy.
Chief Financial Officer Christy Chicoine said the audit reflects progress following prior concerns identified in earlier reviews.
“We have made significant improvements compared to the prior year’s audit as a Finance Department, and I am grateful for the finance team’s commitment towards those improvements as demonstrated in this audit,” Chicoine said. “While we still have work to do to continue to sustain and enhance the district’s fiscal management, the audit report indicates we are clearly headed in the right direction.”
Superintendent Anna Cole said the findings validate work undertaken over the past two years to rebuild internal systems and improve transparency.
“Over the past two years, our teams have worked diligently and transparently to rebuild internal financial systems that left the district at risk,” Cole said. “The outcomes of this audit are evidence that we are on track.”
Cole said the timing of the audit is significant as the district begins developing its budget for the 2026-27 school year and faces mounting external pressures.
“We couldn’t have stabilized internal systems at a better time,” she said. “As we begin the budgeting process for the 26/27 school year, we face external challenges like declining enrollment, instability of state and federal funding, and a rising cost of living that is outpacing staff and teacher salaries. This audit is an important confirmation that our finances are in order as we prepare to navigate oncoming challenges.”
Board President Lindsay DeFrates said the board is better positioned to plan ahead following the audit’s conclusions.
“We are grateful for the leadership of Chief Chicoine and the hard work of the district finance and human resources teams,” DeFrates said. “We are now in a much better place financially and will move forward with clarity, transparency and accountability, able to better navigate the challenges to come.”
Finance
UK’s Former Finance Minister George Osborne Joins Coinbase – Coinspeaker
Key Notes
- Former UK finance minister George Osborne is joining Coinbase’s Global Advisory Council.
- Osborne will focus on crypto regulation, stablecoins, and tokenized assets across the UK and EU.
- The exchange is also expanding beyond crypto trading as it steps into 2026.
Coinbase has appointed former UK finance minister George Osborne as chair of its Global Advisory Council. It is clear that the American crypto exchange wants to deepen its influence with governments outside the United States.
Earlier this week, Coinbase tested the waters in India as its deal to acquire a minority stake in local crypto trading platform CoinDCX was approved by the Competition Commission of India.
https://twitter.com/CCI_India/status/2000905244080034292
Coinbase Expands Policy Reach Beyond the US
Coinbase confirmed that Osborne will take a more active role in advising on government engagement worldwide, with a focus on Britain and the European Union.
Osborne, who first joined Coinbase as an adviser in January 2024, will be based in London. He will work closely with policymakers on issues related to crypto regulation, stablecoins, and tokenized assets.
Coinbase’s chief policy officer Faryar Shirzad said the crypto exchange has already become a powerful lobbying force outside the US. In the UK, the company is pushing for clearer rules on tax treatment, stablecoin payments, and the use of tokenized assets in capital markets.
Osborne’s Background
Osborne served as the UK’s finance minister from 2010 until 2016, stepping down after the Brexit referendum. Since leaving politics, he has built a broad private-sector portfolio.
He currently chairs the British Museum, is a partner at investment bank Robey Warshaw, and leads Lingotto Investment Management.
Just days before the Coinbase announcement, OpenAI named Osborne to support its overseas data centre expansion under its global infrastructure program. His appointment to Coinbase adds crypto and blockchain policy to an already wide-ranging list of responsibilities.
Expansion Across Crypto
According to an earlier report, at its recent System Update event, Coinbase revealed plans to expand into stock trading, prediction markets, custom stablecoins, tokenization platforms, and AI-powered investment advisers.
Coinbase has already launched stock trading and prediction markets on its platform and now rivals firms such as Robinhood and eToro. The exchange has also partnered with Kalshi to offer markets tied to real-world events such as sports, elections, and economic data.
The exchange’s long-term goal is to become an all-in-one financial platform that operates around the clock.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank recently initiated coverage with a buy rating, according to CNBC. Analysts expect the company’s broader new everything-in-one strategy to reduce its dependence on crypto trading volumes as it scales into 2026.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
A crypto journalist with over 5 years of experience in the industry, Parth has worked with major media outlets in the crypto and finance world, gathering experience and expertise in the space after surviving bear and bull markets over the years. Parth is also an author of 4 self-published books.
Parth Dubey on LinkedIn
Finance
Equipment finance outlook optimistic as legislation, investment bolster industry
After difficulties this year, next year looks to be better for the equipment finance industry as government legislation and investment in data centers and AI provide opportunities for financiers.
The U.S. economy heads into 2026 resilient, with real gross domestic product growth of 1.8% and a 6.2% increase in equipment and software investment, according to the 2026 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook, released today by the Equipment Leasing and Finance Foundation. Strong equipment demand, AI-driven capital spending and equity market strength should drive growth for the industry.
Rather than a typical temporary cyclical downturn, after 2025 the equipment industry faces a systemic change, Michael Sharov, a partner in consulting firm Oliver Wyman’s Transportation and Advanced Industrials practice, told Equipment Finance News. Evolving channels, customer fragmentation, labor shortages, and digital and supplier realignment will drive change and create opportunities for dealers, lenders and OEMs.
“Systemic change is going to happen, but the industries are not going to fall apart.” — Michael Sharov, transportation and advanced industrial partner, Oliver Wyman
The equipment industry can still prosper because they serve “essential use” industries such as food, infrastructure and materials, “so there is high confidence in recovery, as long as everyone does not hunker down, but uses this downturn,” he said.
Amid restructuring, lenders face battles around asset transparency, uptime and service capacity, changing underwriting factors, longer trade cycles and elevated importance of used equipment, even with the strong long-term outlook, Sharov said.
In industries such as transportation, mergers and acquisitions will allow stronger players to pick up clients as capacity shifts across the industry, Anthony Sasso, head of TD Equipment Finance and senior vice president at TD Bank, told EFN.
“There are more opportunities for companies to pick up good clients for those companies that are financially sound and well-heeled,” he said. “We’re seeing that today.”
Equipment finance industry set for growth
Meanwhile, the equipment finance industry appears set for growth in 2026 alongside the U.S. economy’s recovery following a year plagued by economic uncertainty, Cedric Chehab, chief economist at economic research firm BMI, said during a Dec. 11 webinar.
Factors supporting industry growth include fiscal stimulus and bonus depreciation because of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act, additional Federal Reserve rate cuts that are anticipated, resilient corporate profitability and earnings, and especially, continued investment in AI and data centers, which could affect the economy on multiple levels, Chehab said.
“When you combine the huge strengths of AI and the software around AI and the LLMs and how they interact with machines and robotics, they could boost productivity even further,” he said. “Many economies, and in particular the U.S. economy, are pursuing aggressive industrial policy, driving investment in cutting-edge technology, which will not only foster greater competition to a degree, but really accelerate the pace of development of these technologies.”
Deductions, depreciation under OBBBA
A full year under the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act, which was signed by President Donald Trump on July 4, should spur equipment investment, especially for the equipment sectors in need of recovery, according to a Nov. 19 Wells Fargo research note.
“By making bonus depreciation permanent, firms can fully expense capital equipment, machinery and qualifying real estate improvements,” according to the note. “This change, along with other tax incentives, reduced policy uncertainty and lower borrowing rates, should provide support to investment growth next year and keep the CapEx cycle rolling.”
While increased deductions, bonus depreciation and financing can improve liquidity to help pay for replacement assets, weak trucking and finance fundamentals mean the incentives alone may not be enough to drive new equipment purchases, TD’s Sasso said.
“That’s probably one of the areas that, if you see an uptick in that, it may promote more CapEx spending, and this not only applies to the trucking vertical, but it’s for a number of other verticals,” he said. “If you see more CapEx spend, then you’d see the financing go along with that, and that’s where those benefits would kick in.”
Data centers boost construction
Investment in data centers and technology is also expected to continue in 2026, according to the Wells Fargo note.
“The race to build out the next generation of AI capabilities with the latest information processing equipment, software and new data centers has led capital spending to charge ahead despite elevated policy uncertainty,” according to the note. “But this concentration in tech spending glosses over undeniable weakness in more traditional CapEx categories, such as transportation equipment and commercial construction.”


Data centers also require significant capital, with financing for U.S. data centers projected to reach $60 billion in 2025, according to a Dec. 11 release from the Equipment Leasing and Finance Foundation focused on data centers.
In the wider construction segment, sentiment toward growth remains cautious in some regions, with nearly half of construction firms in the Minneapolis Federal Reserve region feeling more pessimistic than they did in mid-2025, Erick Luna, director of regional outreach for the region, said during a Dec. 12 webinar.
“Some of the same challenges showed up in this change of outlook, a slowdown in projects, reduced RFPs, tariffs, etc.,” he said. “Almost half [of the firms] expected backlogs to keep contracting, and in turn, [fewer] projects will be completed and so on.”
Equipment industry faces more challenges
Meanwhile, executives rated the state of the industrials market a 5.7 out of 10, down from 8 last year, according to Oliver Wyman’s 2025 State of Industrial Goods North America, Non-Road report, released on Dec. 3. The report surveyed 105 equipment manufacturer executives in conjunction with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers.
Looking ahead, indicators such as farm receipts, construction activity, residential starts and large data center projects will be central to assessing demand across agriculture and construction, Nate Savona, a partner in Oliver Wyman’s Transportation and Advanced Industrials practice, told EFN.
“What we got from the members that we worked with who are living and breathing the industry is there is cautious optimism, but they’re not feeling great right now. The original sentiment for the [State of Industrial Goods] report was done six months ago or so, and then we revisited the question in the past month, and the sentiment was the same, so it hasn’t gotten better yet.” — Nate Savona, transportation and advanced industrial partner, Oliver Wyman
While the outlook for 2026 does come with optimism, BMI’s Chehab pointed to several risk factors, including:
- A weakening labor market;
- Higher-than-expected inflation;
- Limited Fed easing due to inflation;
- Financial market volatility due to a potential AI bubble;
- Escalating trade tensions; and
- Political uncertainty tied to midterm elections.
Despite the challenges, there’s cautious optimism for 2026, with the potential rebound of the trucking industry on the back of improving values serving as a bellwether for the broader economy, TD’s Sasso said.
“When you look at values, we may be in a trough right now where we’ve hit the bottom, and hopefully those valuations, we’re going to see coming back up,” he said. “Overall, there’s much more optimism going into 2026, and hopefully that is the case that would benefit all businesses, including ours.”
Check out our exclusive industry data here.
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