Connect with us

Finance

AI may prove big deal for finance — but don’t hold your breath

Published

on

AI may prove big deal for finance — but don’t hold your breath


Shortly after the launch of ChatGPT last November, I asked the head of M&A at a leading investment bank whether any of his team was using it. No, he replied. Because he had banned it.

He was worried about how he would train up his juniors if they could use ChatGPT to do research into companies and markets. “That’s how they learn the business,” he said.

Advertisement

This seemed a surprisingly Luddite attitude to find in such a technologically sophisticated business. And his move was quickly overtaken by a bank-wide ban on the use of ChatGPT due to compliance concerns over using third-party software.

But his caution points to one of the many reasons that the excitement over the impact of artificial intelligence on financial services may prove premature.

Those sceptical about the speed with which AI will transform our lives often cite the observation by computer scientist Roy Amara that “we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”

There are certainly plenty of examples of overestimating the short-term impact: just think of the internet bubble at the turn of the century or the more recent fever over blockchain (though here the long-term effects may well have been overestimated too).

But AI will be different, say the cheerleaders. The adoption of most technologies is slowed by the need to invest in new kit or infrastructure while the new wave of generative AI systems are cheap if not free.

Advertisement

Still, cost is only one of the obstacles to the adoption of technology. It takes time to overcome natural inertia, to iron out wrinkles, to find the most compelling use cases and change methods of working. And it tends to take longer for the new technology to impact productivity. If it ever does.

While 100 million people may have tried ChatGPT, the number actually doing anything useful with it is pretty small.

One of the key areas in finance where many predict AI will have a big impact is in customer service, particularly call centres. But this is a good example of why a degree of caution is warranted.

In terms of job losses, economists identify call centre workers as one of the most vulnerable occupations, with a PwC report for the government predicting a 26% fall in jobs in the UK — or more than 300,000 — due to AI over the next five years. And that was before the launch of ChatGPT.

Yet experts have for years been predicting that technology would lead to big job cuts in call centres and headcount kept growing. People who actually run call centres are much more cautious in their forecasts, pointing out that firms tend to be very conservative about introducing new technology because of the risk of alienating customers. That is even more the case in financial services where firms are paranoid about anything that exposes them to potential regulatory risk.

Advertisement

Slower adoption

“I think the adoption of generative AI like ChatGPT will be much slower than many economists and technology suppliers predict,” says the head of one large asset manager. “They say that they will soon solve the current reliability problems but financial services firms will believe it when they see it.”

A recent report by financial analysts at Jefferies agrees that the adoption of AI will be slower than expected. “Financials will need to manage AI coding errors, vulnerability to cyber attacks, biased models, unclear legal responsibility for AI decisions, and lack of AI traceability, among other risks.”

There is also scepticism about how big an impact on productivity AI will deliver, so making existing jobs easier or reducing the number needed.

Legal services is one area where many experts say AI will be transformational. You would imagine the sort of intelligent document processing offered by companies like Goldman Sachs-backed Eigen Technologies would ultimately lead to a big drop in the number of human lawyers required.

Advertisement

Yet even some AI evangelists, such as Alphabet and Google boss Sundar Pichai, say the implications for jobs are highly complicated and uncertain. “I am willing to almost bet 10 years from now maybe there are more lawyers,” he said on the Decoder podcast.

Although generative AI clearly has value in areas such as research, documentation and coding, doubters wonder whether it will also generate more work, reducing the benefits to users, rather like email has done.

Who really knows?

The truth is nobody really knows how quickly it will be adopted or how big a deal it will turn out to be, though there are certainly plenty of enthusiasts within financial firms who believe it will be a very big deal indeed.

One high-profile ‘expert’ also thinks the doubters will be proved wrong. “The adoption of AI in finance will not be slower than expected but rather it will accelerate as technology advances and regulatory landscapes change,” says ChatGPT.

Advertisement

To contact the author of this story with feedback or news, email David Wighton

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Finance

The growing case to embed climate risk in finance teaching

Published

on

The growing case to embed climate risk in finance teaching

Stay informed with free updates

Chief financial officers, chief ­investment officers and their teams are in a prime position to help embed ­sustainability in their organisations — from strategy and operations to financing and reporting. Yet the change required for many finance teams is ­substantial.

A recent survey of senior finance professionals by the charity Accounting for Sustainability suggests that the profession is responding: 88 per cent agree that it is “very important” or “essential” to transform financial decision making to address the opportunities and risks posed by environmental and social issues.

Most organisations have developed at least some tools to integrate sustainability, alongside traditional financial data, into decision making.

Advertisement

But only 9 per cent reported they were able to do so in a fully comprehensive way. Fifteen per cent felt they had the tools and techniques in place that they needed, though 46 per cent said these were under development.

Those of us who teach and conduct research in finance and accounting have a role to play to meet this demand.

We took part in a recent discussion between finance and accounting —professors and the Financial Times about best practices, successful innovations, and important concepts and themes.

It is now relatively uncontroversial to argue that climate change and nature loss bring direct risks to the profitability and cash flows of companies.

Physical risks arise from direct manifestations of climate change and include risks to firm facilities, operations, and supply chains.

Advertisement

Transition risks and opportunities arise for business as regulatory incentives and consumer preferences push towards, for example, a lower emissions economy.

Mobilising private capital towards mitigation of, and adaptation to, environmental change is vital. The rules of the road, as defined in finance textbooks, must be refined to help understand and manage these risks.

But there are divergent views on how to respond. Some participants in the discussion felt a responsibility as professors to inspire a fundamental overhaul of finance and accounting pedagogy, and thought the fiduciary duty of financial officers must be redefined to view climate and social action through the lens of “citizen investors”, who consider many non-financial objectives.

For them, a core course in finance would seek to question the very purpose of finance. Ideally, it would pursue what appropriate actions financial officers could take to fulfil their more ­broadly defined duties, what powers they should exercise, what purpose they serve, and what evidence there is of what works.

Other finance professors — a larger group that includes the authors of this article — argue that a stronger focus on climate risks is justified within the existing frameworks we teach, and no big overhaul is needed. Students should consider new sources of extra-market risk, which require a multidisciplinary understanding and fall under the ­conventional responsibilities of both investment and corporate managers.

Advertisement

When we teach about the cost of ­capital, for example, we highlight that stocks exposed to risks require a higher expected rate of return to be attractive, thus reducing the attractiveness of certain investments. Replacing discussion of macroeconomic risks (beyond the standard market risk factors) with others focused on climate and nature would highlight factors managers should take into account.

Another dimension is cash flow. Investing in climate change and sustainability presents a range of opportunities to generate returns and make a positive impact on the environment. These include leveraging tax incentives to invest in renewable energy projects (a booming business for investment banks due to recent legislation in the US and Europe), green bonds, electric vehicles and infrastructure.

This less radical perspective does not mean that non-financial objectives should never be considered in decision making.

Rather, it highlights that ­climate and nature risk management is already required — even of those investors with a narrower fiduciary duty to maximise risk-adjusted returns.

Advertisement

Innovative teaching approaches on sustainability and finance through real-time case studies, industry speakers, data-driven exercises, out-of-the-box readings, and engaged, project-oriented learning experiences are welcome. The more creative, the better.

At our discussion with the FT, there was a shared belief that deans and other academic leaders in business schools should create more incentives for such forms of pedagogy.

We acknowledge that there is a still larger group of finance and accounting professors who are indifferent, opposed or of the view that sustainability has ­little or no place in core finance teaching and learning. We believe a broader debate will continue and welcome it.

This article is by Marcin Kacperczyk, a professor at Imperial College Business School; Andrew Karolyi, a professor and dean at Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, and an advisory councillor to King Charles’s Accounting for Sustainability project; Lin Peng, a professor at Baruch College’s Zicklin School of Business; and Johannes Stroebel, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. We are grateful to our colleagues David Pitt-Watson, Megan Kashner and John Tobin for helpful comments

Finance and climate: recommended reading from the authors

Climate Finance,” by Harrison Hong, Andrew Karolyi, and José Scheinkman, Review of Financial Studies (Volume 33, Issue 3, March 2020)

Advertisement

Climate Finance,” by Stefano Giglio, Bryan Kelly, and Johannes Stroebel, Annual Review of Financial Economics (Volume 13, November 2021)

Seeking Virtue in Finance: Contributing to Society in a Conflicted Industry by JC de Swaan (Cambridge University Press, 2022)

What They Do With Your Money, How the Finance Industry Fails Us, and How to Fix It by Stephen Davis, Jon Lukomnik and David Pitt-Watson (Yale University Press, 2016)

The Ministry of the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson (Orbit Press, 2020)

Sustainable Investing in Equilibrium,” by Lubos Pastor, Robert Stambaugh and Lucian Taylor, Journal of Financial Economics (Volume 142, Issue 2, November 2021)

Advertisement

Responsible Investing: The ESG-Efficient Frontier,” by Lasse Heje Pedersen, Shaun Fitzgibbons and Lukasz Pomorski, Journal of Financial Economics (Volume 142, Issue 2, November 2021)

Global Pricing of Carbon-Transition Risk,” Patrick Bolton and Marcin Kacperczyk, Journal of Finance (Volume 78, Issue 6, December 2023).


Recommendations from a wider group of finance professors:

Investments by Bodie, Kane and Marcus

Principles of Corporate Finance by Brealey, Myers, Allen, Edmans 

Advertisement

Climate Finance by Giglio, Kelly and Stroebel

Managing Climate Risk in the US Financial System

Grow the Pie by Alex Edmans

Global Reporting Initiative “Double Materiality Concept – Application & Issues”

Woke Inc. by Vivek Ramaswamy

Advertisement

IPCC (2022) “Sixth Assessment Report”

Unsettled” by Steve Koonin BenBella Books

Net Zero Investing for Multi-Asset Portfolios by Hodges, Ren, Schwaiger and Ang Journal of Portfolio Management 

Aggregate Confusion by Berg, Kolbel and Rigobon Review of Finance

Do ESG Factors Influence Firm Valuation? Evidence from the Field by Karolyi, Bancel and Glavas

Advertisement

Biodiversity Finance: A Call for Research into Financing Nature by Andrew Karolyi and John Tobin-de-la-Puente (2023) Financial Management

The Future We Choose: The Stubborn Optimist’s Guide to the Climate Crisis by Christiana Figueres and Tom Rivett-Carn

How to Avoid a Climate Disaster by Bill Gates https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/317490/how-to-avoid-a-climate-disaster-by-gates-bill/9780141993010

False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor and Fails to Fix the Planet by Bjorn Lomborg


Disagree or want to suggest others? Use the comments section below

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Finance

I Saved $1,200 on NYC Rent by Negotiating With My Landlord

Published

on

I Saved $1,200 on NYC Rent by Negotiating With My Landlord

Though I write about the housing market and mortgages for a living, I’m a Gen Zer renting my first New York City apartment. I’m also new to the workforce and living in a Brooklyn neighborhood where the median rent is above $4,000. 

Housing is unaffordable right now, for both renters and buyers. Personal finance experts often recommend that you avoid spending more than 30% of your pretax income on housing. But that’s usually out of our control. And when you don’t live in a rent-stabilized property in NYC, your housing expenses could increase hundreds of dollars with each lease renewal. 

I learned that the hard way. 

When our lease was up in April, my roommate and I saw that our landlord was proposing a 4.5% annual increase, raising our rent by $200 a month, and costing us each an additional $1,200 over the next year. 

We could’ve easily accepted the increase, but all it took was a bit of research, a well-written email and a quick phone call to get our landlord to budge.

Advertisement

My easy strategy for negotiating rent 

Since our apartment doesn’t have rent-stabilized protections, there’s no legal limit on how much our landlord can increase our rent. Still, the proposed 4.5% bump was much higher than we expected. 

I knew we’d be leaving money on the table if we didn’t at least try to negotiate. Landlords can often appear superhuman, impervious to normal business haggling. But that’s not always true. Here’s what we did to negotiate our rent.

I did research on average rent increases

I started by researching how much average rents had increased in our Brooklyn neighborhood over the last year. I found that average rental prices went up by less than 3% during that time, giving us pretty good leverage to negotiate. I also noted in my email that a 4.5% increase was above the current pace of inflation, which was at 3.4%.

I built my case as a responsible tenant

In many cases, it’s more convenient for a landlord to renew a lease with a responsible tenant than to deal with a vacancy. My roommate and I always pay our rent on time and in full. We alert management to any issues, like a leaking faucet, to prevent further damage or costs to the building. So we had that going for us. 

I figured it was also worth noting recent issues with the apartment. For instance, last fall, there was some pretty major flooding in our bathroom. We’d been disappointed by how long it took the building super to reply to our requests and follow through on the repairs. 

Advertisement

I was prepared to make concessions 

I knew we wouldn’t be able to avoid a rent increase entirely. So I suggested an increase that I felt was in line with the local rental market, the pace of inflation and our reliable rental history.

Instead of 4.5%, I proposed a 2% increase as our starting point. That left us with some wiggle room in our budgets in case our landlord came back with a higher number.

I wrote a professional email 

After we sent the email, the building’s management took about a week to respond. They asked if we could hop on a brief phone call to discuss the terms of our renewal. Our landlord offered an increase of just above 2%, meaning our rent would be going up only $100 a month as opposed to $200. 

AI can help you negotiate with your landlord

 

We didn’t use AI to draft the email to our landlord, but in hindsight, we definitely could have.

 

When putting together this article, I decided to give Gemini, Google’s AI service, a prompt to see if it could help someone write an email to negotiate rent. The result wasn’t too different from the actual email my roommate and I sent.

Advertisement

 

Here’s something you can use as a template to negotiate with your landlord if you’re in a similar situation.

 

Dear [landlord name], 

 

Advertisement

I hope this email finds you well. 

 

I am writing to you regarding the upcoming lease renewal for my apartment [your apartment number]. I have been a resident here for [number] years and have always enjoyed living in the building. 

 

I received the notice of the proposed rent increase to [new rent amount]. Though I understand that rent increases are sometimes necessary, I was hoping we could discuss the possibility of a lower adjustment.

Advertisement

 

Here are a few reasons for my request:

 

[State your reason(s) for the negotiation. Here are some options:]

  • Market research: I have researched comparable apartments in the area and found that the average rent for similar units is [average rent amount].
  • Good tenant history: Throughout my tenancy, I have consistently paid rent on time and in full, taken good care of the apartment, and maintained a positive relationship with you and other residents.
  • Financial hardship: [optional — if applicable, you can briefly explain any financial hardship that makes the increase difficult]
  • Alternative: [optional] I would be happy to sign a longer lease term of [number] years in exchange for a smaller rent increase.

 

I am committed to staying here at [apartment complex name] and believe that a mutually beneficial agreement can be reached. I am open to discussing different options. Thank you for your time and consideration. Please let me know your availability to discuss this further.

Advertisement

 

Sincerely,

[name]

 

You’ll still need to fill in some details, like information about your specific rental market as well as your experience as a tenant. But it’s a great starting point, especially if writing and sending emails gives you anxiety.

Advertisement

A little self-advocacy can go a long way

The rising cost of living —  for housing, medical expenses and other essentials — isn’t something we can control. But there are small measures we can take to save money and make informed financial decisions that benefit us in the long run.

You’re allowed to ask questions about the bills you receive and advocate for yourself. It won’t eliminate high costs altogether, but it could help you keep more money in your pocket.  

Here are some other costs that are worth negotiating: 

Medical bills and health care costs

You can contact your health care provider, insurer or hospital to negotiate medical costs. Your provider may lower your bill, offer a payment plan or provide financial assistance if you’re a low-income patient or uninsured. Always carefully review your medical bills and look for mistakes, and if you have any questions about the charges, ask your provider. 

Credit card fees and interest

You may be able to get a better interest rate or reduced fees by simply calling your credit card issuer. Before you hop on the phone, though, be sure to research your account’s history and terms, in addition to competing credit card offers, so you can make a strong argument. 

Advertisement

Cable, internet and phone 

Cable, internet and phone providers often lure you in with a low introductory rate. But after a year, your price goes up. You can either contact your provider to see if it has any deals available, or mention you’re considering canceling your service. Your provider would rather keep you as a customer for a lower price than lose your business altogether. 

In my opinion, self-advocacy is an underrated personal finance tool. By speaking up for myself, I avoided spending an extra $1,200 this year. And I won’t be afraid to do it again when my internet provider’s promotional offer expires this summer.

Continue Reading

Finance

Jane Young: Some farewell thoughts on navigating personal finances

Published

on

Jane Young: Some farewell thoughts on navigating personal finances

It is hard to believe that Linda Leitz and I have been writing this column for close to 12 years. It has been a tremendous honor to share personal finance information with you over this time.

I am incredibly grateful to the Colorado Springs Gazette and my amazing editors for giving me this opportunity. I have enjoyed writing the column and appreciate all the feedback I have received from you, my readers. I have learned so much over the years.

However, I have reached a point in my practice where I need to focus more time on providing excellent service to my clients.

This will be my last article, but most of my articles are available on my website at www.morethanyourmoney.com. I plan to continue doing some writing and speaking, but I no longer can devote the time to a regular column.

I have written countless articles on the technical aspects of personal finance, but I would like to end by highlighting some broader concepts and behaviors that I hope you will keep in mind as you navigate through your personal finances.

Advertisement


Below are some behaviors and habits that will help you achieve and maintain financial success:

Receive a weekly roundup of business news around El Paso County.

Success! Thank you for subscribing to our newsletter.

• Live below your means: This is the single most important behavior to follow to achieve financial success. It is essential to create a plan to spend less than you earn so you can save and invest for the future. Ideally, you should save and invest 15% of your income.

• Practice gratitude: Gratitude improves your attitude, enabling you to maintain a positive mindset. A positive mindset results in reduced stress, better sleep, improved focus and increased emotional resiliency. Gratitude can transform your financial life. When you appreciate what you have, you can approach finances with greater confidence and less emotion. You are more likely to make financial decisions that align with your values and goals.

• Long-term perspective: Maintaining a long-term perspective is essential to effectively managing your portfolio. Create and stick to a plan that supports your long-term goals. A long-term perspective can help you avoid emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and the temptation to time the market. It can also help you save more for the future by understanding the importance of delayed gratification.

Advertisement


• Invest in yourself: Successful people are constantly learning. You do not need to be an expert, but a general understanding of personal finance will help you stick to your plan and avoid emotional decisions. A greater understanding of finance can also reduce anxiety and lead to greater patience during times of market turmoil.

Investing time to stay healthy also contributes to greater financial success. Good mental and physical health leads to a positive attitude, improved relationships and more enthusiasm to set and meet financial goals.

Jane Young is a business columnist and a fee-only, certified financial planner. She can be reached at jane@morethanyourmoney.com.

Continue Reading

Trending