Finance
2 charts show why the stock market sell-off isn't done yet
The roaring stock market rally of 2024 has finally hit a pause.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) tallied their worst one-day drops since 2022 on Wednesday and extended those losses on Thursday. Over the past 10 days the benchmark S&P 500 is down about 3%, while the Nasdaq is down more than 6%.
The recent pause in the rally’s chug higher aligns with calls from equity strategists in our recently released third volume of the Yahoo Finance Chartbook. Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner noted that in years when the S&P 500 has risen more than 10% in the first half of the year, the second half usually sees an average pullback of about 9%.
Through the end of June, the S&P 500 was up about 14%.
“This choppier market action of late, which we have been anticipating, likely has further to go in terms of price and time,” Lerner wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.
Tech has been the clear leader of the recent market drawdown. Information Technology and Communication Services are the only two of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 with negative returns over the past month. In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Lerner reasoned that the recent sell-off in Tech made sense given how far up the sector had run.
In late June, tech had outperformed the S&P 500 on a rolling two-month basis by the most since 2002, per Lerner’s research. Lerner reasons that, like a rubber band that becomes overstretched, there’s usually a snapback from extreme levels of outperformance in markets.
“When we get that stretched, a little bit of bad news can go a long way,” Lerner said.
The “little bit of news” came via earnings reports from Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) after the bell on Tuesday leading into Wednesday’s sell-off. Lerner noted that the earnings weren’t bad but failed to impress investors, who had a high bar entering this reporting season.
Earnings from Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) expected next week will prove the next test for investor sentiment in the tech sector. Lerner reasoned that, after the market reset over the past few trading sessions, there’s a chance technology’s latest swath of earnings can surpass investors’ now-trimmed expectations.
“I think the secular story of this bull market is still intact,” Lerner said. “Money will come back there. I just think more likely you need a resting period and kind of a pause that refreshes.”
BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski also highlighted the likelihood of a pause in stocks’ climb higher in the latest edition of our Chartbook. Similarly to Lerner’s analysis, Belski’s work shows that going back to 1949, the second year of a bull market sees a roughly 9% average pullback. The most recent bull market started in October 2022.
Belski told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday that the market was “ripe for a pullback from a sentiment perspective.” But to Belski, this is a “buying opportunity.” His research shows that markets typically bounce back an average of 14.5% from the bottom of the second-year bull market drawdowns he studied.
“Stocks will be higher at year-end,” Belski said.
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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Finance
Vallourec SA (VLOUF) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Moves and Financial Resilience …
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EBITDA Margin: Maintained a healthy margin similar to previous quarters.
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Full Year EBITDA Outlook: Reiterated at EUR800 million to EUR850 million.
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Cash Generation: EUR130 million in Q3, reducing net debt for the eighth consecutive quarter.
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Net Debt Reduction: Over EUR1.2 billion reduction since 2022.
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Q3 Group EBITDA Margin: Close to 19%.
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Tubes Volumes: Reduced to 292 kilotons in Q3.
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Mine & Forest Segment EBITDA: Expected slightly below EUR100 million for the full year.
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Net Debt Reduction in Q3: EUR124 million.
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Full Year Mine Production Expectation: Approximately 5 million tonnes, down from 6 million tonnes.
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Q3 Cash Flow: Total cash generation of EUR130 million.
Release Date: November 15, 2024
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
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Vallourec SA (VLOUF) maintained a healthy EBITDA margin in Q3 2024, driven by strong international OCTG market performance.
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The company generated significant cash flow, reducing net debt for the eighth consecutive quarter, totaling a reduction of over EUR1.2 billion since 2022.
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Vallourec SA (VLOUF) announced its first strategic acquisition in nearly a decade with Thermotite do Brasil, enhancing its position in the offshore line pipe market.
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The company is progressing well with its optimization program in Brazil, which is expected to significantly contribute to closing the profitability gap.
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Vallourec SA (VLOUF) plans to announce a dividend proposal for its 2025 AGM, marking the first dividend in 10 years, reflecting strong financial health.
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The US OCTG market experienced softness, impacting Vallourec SA (VLOUF)’s overall performance.
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The global iron ore market softened in Q3, leading to lower prices and sales volumes in the Mine & Forest segment.
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Vallourec SA (VLOUF) lowered its full-year mine production expectations to approximately 5 million tonnes, down from 6 million tonnes.
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Q3 2024 saw a reduction in tonnage sold and a slight decrease in average realized prices, leading to a year-over-year decline in revenues and EBITDA.
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The company faces potential challenges from the new tax environment in France, which could impact shareholder remuneration strategies like share buybacks.
Q: Is a share buyback still an option for shareholder remuneration given the new tax environment in France? A: Philippe Guillemot, CEO: While we never exclude any ways to return excess cash to shareholders, the potential tax implications in France make share buybacks less attractive. We plan to return cash to shareholders with a payout ratio of 80% to 100%, starting from Q3. The dividend proposal will be announced in February, based on Q3 cash generation.
Finance
JSB Financial Inc. Reports Earnings for the Third Quarter and First Nine Months of 2024
SHEPHERDSTOWN, W. Va., November 15, 2024–(BUSINESS WIRE)–JSB Financial Inc. (OTCPink: JFWV) reported net income of $2.0 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, representing an increase of $1.3 million when compared to $643 thousand for the quarter ended September 30, 2023. Basic and diluted earnings per common share were $7.64 and $2.33 for the third quarter of 2024 and 2023, respectively. The third quarter results include the recognition of an interest recovery totaling $1.3 million, a recovery to the allowance for credit losses on loans totaling $252 thousand and a recovery of legal fees totaling $17 thousand on prior nonperforming loans. Excluding the impact of these notable items, pre-tax income of $959 thousand for the third quarter of 2024 was $187 thousand more than the same period in 2023.
Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 totaled $3.4 million, representing an increase of $1.1 million when compared to $2.3 million for the same period in 2023. Basic and diluted earnings per common share were $13.33 and $8.46 for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 and 2023, respectively. Annualized return on average assets and average equity for September 30, 2024 was 0.87% and 17.65%, respectively, and 0.66% and 13.17%, respectively, for September 30, 2023. Excluding the impact of the notable items in the third quarter of 2024, pre-tax income of $2.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 was $96 thousand lower than the same period in 2023.
“We are pleased with our performance for the third quarter, which includes one-time recoveries on nonperforming loans totaling $1.5 million. Additionally, our team continued to create, deepen and expand our customer relationships which resulted in an increase in total deposits of 10% when compared to the second quarter and 17% year-over-year,” said President and Chief Executive Officer, Cindy Kitner. “During the third quarter, we saw stable loan growth, which was funded through loan maturities and deposit growth, and we continue to have strong credit quality metrics including past dues, nonaccruals, charge offs and nonperforming loans, all of which remained at historically low levels.”
Finance
Interested In Manulife Financial’s (TSE:MFC) Upcoming CA$0.40 Dividend? You Have Four Days Left
Regular readers will know that we love our dividends at Simply Wall St, which is why it’s exciting to see Manulife Financial Corporation (TSE:MFC) is about to trade ex-dividend in the next 4 days. The ex-dividend date is usually set to be one business day before the record date which is the cut-off date on which you must be present on the company’s books as a shareholder in order to receive the dividend. It is important to be aware of the ex-dividend date because any trade on the stock needs to have been settled on or before the record date. Accordingly, Manulife Financial investors that purchase the stock on or after the 20th of November will not receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 19th of December.
The company’s next dividend payment will be CA$0.40 per share. Last year, in total, the company distributed CA$1.60 to shareholders. Looking at the last 12 months of distributions, Manulife Financial has a trailing yield of approximately 3.5% on its current stock price of CA$46.23. Dividends are a major contributor to investment returns for long term holders, but only if the dividend continues to be paid. So we need to investigate whether Manulife Financial can afford its dividend, and if the dividend could grow.
View our latest analysis for Manulife Financial
If a company pays out more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable – hardly an ideal situation. Manulife Financial paid out more than half (55%) of its earnings last year, which is a regular payout ratio for most companies.
When a company paid out less in dividends than it earned in profit, this generally suggests its dividend is affordable. The lower the % of its profit that it pays out, the greater the margin of safety for the dividend if the business enters a downturn.
Click here to see the company’s payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.
Companies with consistently growing earnings per share generally make the best dividend stocks, as they usually find it easier to grow dividends per share. Investors love dividends, so if earnings fall and the dividend is reduced, expect a stock to be sold off heavily at the same time. With that in mind, we’re encouraged by the steady growth at Manulife Financial, with earnings per share up 4.5% on average over the last five years.
Another key way to measure a company’s dividend prospects is by measuring its historical rate of dividend growth. In the past 10 years, Manulife Financial has increased its dividend at approximately 12% a year on average. It’s encouraging to see the company lifting dividends while earnings are growing, suggesting at least some corporate interest in rewarding shareholders.
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