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2 charts show why the stock market sell-off isn't done yet

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2 charts show why the stock market sell-off isn't done yet

The roaring stock market rally of 2024 has finally hit a pause.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) tallied their worst one-day drops since 2022 on Wednesday and extended those losses on Thursday. Over the past 10 days the benchmark S&P 500 is down about 3%, while the Nasdaq is down more than 6%.

The recent pause in the rally’s chug higher aligns with calls from equity strategists in our recently released third volume of the Yahoo Finance Chartbook. Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner noted that in years when the S&P 500 has risen more than 10% in the first half of the year, the second half usually sees an average pullback of about 9%.

Through the end of June, the S&P 500 was up about 14%.

“This choppier market action of late, which we have been anticipating, likely has further to go in terms of price and time,” Lerner wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.

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Tech has been the clear leader of the recent market drawdown. Information Technology and Communication Services are the only two of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 with negative returns over the past month. In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Lerner reasoned that the recent sell-off in Tech made sense given how far up the sector had run.

In late June, tech had outperformed the S&P 500 on a rolling two-month basis by the most since 2002, per Lerner’s research. Lerner reasons that, like a rubber band that becomes overstretched, there’s usually a snapback from extreme levels of outperformance in markets.

“When we get that stretched, a little bit of bad news can go a long way,” Lerner said.

The “little bit of news” came via earnings reports from Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) after the bell on Tuesday leading into Wednesday’s sell-off. Lerner noted that the earnings weren’t bad but failed to impress investors, who had a high bar entering this reporting season.

Earnings from Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) expected next week will prove the next test for investor sentiment in the tech sector. Lerner reasoned that, after the market reset over the past few trading sessions, there’s a chance technology’s latest swath of earnings can surpass investors’ now-trimmed expectations.

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“I think the secular story of this bull market is still intact,” Lerner said. “Money will come back there. I just think more likely you need a resting period and kind of a pause that refreshes.”

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 02: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 02, 2024 in New York City. All three major stock indexes closed at a loss with the Dow Jones leading the way closing over 350 points falling for a second day as Wall Street has a turbulent start to the second quarter. Both the Dow and S&P 500 had its worst day since March 5th.  (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 2, 2024, in New York City. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images) (Michael M. Santiago via Getty Images)

BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski also highlighted the likelihood of a pause in stocks’ climb higher in the latest edition of our Chartbook. Similarly to Lerner’s analysis, Belski’s work shows that going back to 1949, the second year of a bull market sees a roughly 9% average pullback. The most recent bull market started in October 2022.

Belski told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday that the market was “ripe for a pullback from a sentiment perspective.” But to Belski, this is a “buying opportunity.” His research shows that markets typically bounce back an average of 14.5% from the bottom of the second-year bull market drawdowns he studied.

“Stocks will be higher at year-end,” Belski said.

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Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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Car finance saga: Millions of motorists to find out how they will be compensated

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Car finance saga: Millions of motorists to find out how they will be compensated

Millions of motorists who were mis-sold a car loan will find out how they will be compensated, as the finance watchdog shares its final plans for an industry-wide scheme.

Final decisions on the long-awaited programme will be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on Monday afternoon.

The regulator set out draft plans last year but it is likely to make several changes after receiving more than 1,000 responses to its consultation.

Under the latest proposals, the scheme will cover car finance agreements taken out between April 6 2007 and November 1 2024.

The FCA estimated that around 14 million deals, or 44% of all those made since 2007, were unfair and therefore eligible for compensation.

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Consumers were estimated to be compensated an average of £700 per agreement, but it will be more or less depending on individual cases.

This was expected to come at a total cost of £11 billion to the industry, including the total payouts and the operational costs of running the scheme.

Craig Tebbutt, a financial health expert for Equifax UK, said: “It has previously been estimated that average compensation levels could be in the region of £700 per agreement but the final details around the scale, scope and timelines are expected to be confirmed on Monday.

“However, there is nothing to stop consumers checking their paperwork now and getting their details ready in the meantime.”

He said research by the credit reporting firm found that “many consumers don’t know how to check their eligibility and expect the process to be a hassle, with old or missing paperwork being a real barrier”.

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Equifax has launched a car finance checker within its new app that lets people see a list of their past agreements and copy the details, with motorists encouraged to send a complaint to their lender using a template on the FCA’s website if they think they’re eligible for a payout.

Lenders and car finance providers had been challenging the FCA’s proposals with some raising concerns that the expected amount of compensation is too high and does not accurately reflect what customers lost.

On the other side, some consumer groups and MPs have argued that many motorists will be short-changed under the current plans.

The FCA said millions of motorists could receive compensation in 2026 (Jacob King/PA) · Jacob King

The FCA has already announced some changes that it is making to the process since the proposals were unveiled last year.

This includes giving lenders more time to contact motor finance customers from when the scheme is officially launched.

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But it is also aiming to streamline the process by allowing those due redress to accept it immediately without waiting for a final determination.

It thinks that this means million of people would receive compensation in 2026.

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Abacus Global CEO on record 2025 growth – ICYMI

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Abacus Global CEO on record 2025 growth – ICYMI
Abacus Global CEO on record 2025 growth – ICYMI Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock

Abacus Global Management (NYSE:ABX) earlier this week reported record-setting financial and operational performance for 2025, highlighting strong momentum in the rapidly expanding life settlements market.

CEO Jay Jackson said the company delivered more than 100% year-over-year growth across key financial metrics, including EBITDA, adjusted net income, and gross results. He emphasized that beyond headline figures, the underlying operational activity demonstrated the strength of the platform.

Jackson noted that Abacus acquired more than 1,300 life insurance policies during the year and generated nearly $180 million in realized gains. The company also sold over 1,000 policies, underscoring the liquidity and scalability of its model. He added that more than $600 million in capital was deployed, enabling over 1,100 seniors to access value from previously illiquid assets.

“We’re helping clients find liquidity in assets they didn’t know had it — their life insurance policies,” Jackson said.

Jackson explained that life insurance policies are increasingly being recognized as a viable financial asset class.

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Looking ahead, Jackson pointed to a substantial growth runway, noting that the total addressable market is approximately $14 trillion, while Abacus has only penetrated a small fraction of that opportunity. He suggested that ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty is driving investor demand for uncorrelated assets, positioning life settlements as an attractive alternative.

As a key catalyst for future growth, the company recently completed a minority investment in Manning & Napier, a long-established wealth and asset management firm. Jackson said the partnership provides access to more than 3,400 retail clients, many of whom may not yet be aware of the liquidity potential within their life insurance holdings.

He indicated that this strategic relationship could enhance origination volumes and contribute to continued record performance into 2026.

“We’re one of the largest originators, and our record numbers are an indicator of what’s coming next,” he said.

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New Funding Models Needed As Global Health Faces Growing Financial Strain – Health Policy Watch

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New Funding Models Needed As Global Health Faces Growing Financial Strain – Health Policy Watch
Christoph Benn (left) and Patrick Silborn

Global health is facing a funding crisis. Aid is shrinking, debt is rising, and the needs are only increasing. According to Christoph Benn of the Joep Lange Institute and Patrik Silborn of UNICEF Afghanistan, health systems will need to fundamentally rethink how they finance and sustain care.

On a recent episode of the Global Health Matters podcast, host Gary Aslanyan was joined by these two experts, who said “innovative finance” has become central to discussions on sustaining health systems.

Benn said that while the term is widely used, few agree on what it actually means. He described it as a “spectrum” of approaches, ranging from philanthropic grants and conditional funding to private-sector investment models that expect financial returns.

“It has frustrated us deeply that so many people are talking about innovative finance, but very few actually know what they’re talking about,” Benn said.

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Silborn emphasised that these mechanisms should not be treated as one-size-fits-all solutions. Instead, financing models must be designed around specific problems whether that means raising new funds, improving efficiency, or linking payments to measurable outcomes.

Drawing on his experience in Rwanda, Silborn described how a results-based funding model tied disbursements directly to performance, helping the country to maintain progress against major diseases despite reduced funding.

Both experts stressed that private-sector engagement requires a clear understanding of incentives.

“Private corporations are not charities,” Benn said. They can, however, contribute through marketing partnerships, technical expertise, or investment models that align financial returns with social outcomes.
Looking ahead, Benn pointed to targeted taxes and debt swaps as among the most scalable tools. Still, both warned that innovative finance is not a substitute for public responsibility.

“It only works when it is designed to solve real problems in specific contexts,” Benn said, underscoring that strong systems and governance remain essential to any lasting solution.

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Image Credits: Global Health Matters podcast.

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