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Who will win, how many will watch and more revealing Oscars stats

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Who will win, how many will watch and more revealing Oscars stats

The movies and those that make the movies (actors, actresses, producers, administrators, and so on.) are artists of the best caliber. The Oscar present, nevertheless, is essentially about statistics. From who wins to who watches, statistics inform us the story of the Academy Awards.

So what are these statistics telling us in regards to the Oscars this 12 months, and what have they informed us in regards to the latest historical past of the Oscars? Let’s discuss it.

The Massive 5 classes are greatest actor, greatest actress, greatest director, greatest screenplay (authentic or tailored) and, in fact, greatest image. Three movies have gained all Massive 5, and the final to do it was “Silence of the Lambs” in 1991. No movie this 12 months is eligible to drag it off.
Nonetheless, based mostly on the implied chances of the betting markets, listed below are who will almost definitely win the Oscars in these classes.

Greatest actor: Will Smith is a transparent favourite with north of an 80% probability of profitable for his function in “King Richard.” Benedict Cumberbatch is absolutely the one considerably believable nominee with a bit of bit greater than a ten% probability of profitable for his function in “The Energy of the Canine.”

Greatest actress: In contrast to in greatest actor, there are a selection of believable winners. Jessica Chastain has a couple of 60% probability of profitable for her function in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” She’s adopted by Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”) with simply south of a 20% probability of profitable, and Olivia Colman (“The Misplaced Daughters”) and Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”) with a couple of 10% probability of taking house the Oscar.

Greatest director: It might be fairly shocking if Jane Campion does not win right here for “The Energy of the Canine.” She has a couple of 90% probability of taking house the Oscar. If anybody scores a significant upset, it is going to be Steven Spielberg (“West Facet Story”) or Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”), although each have lower than 5% probability.

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Greatest authentic screenplay and greatest tailored screenplay: Truthfully, I do not know who’s going to win in both of those classes. “Licorice Pizza” and “Belfast” every have a couple of 40% probability in the very best authentic screenplay class (with “Do not Look Up” at about 15%). “CODA” is considerably forward (a bit of north of fifty% probability) of “The Energy of the Canine” (a bit of south of 40%) in the very best tailored screenplay race.

Greatest image: This can be a two movie race. It’s totally seemingly both “The Energy of the Canine” (a bit of greater than a 50% probability of profitable) or “CODA” (rather less than a 40%) who will take house the large prize this 12 months.

No, actually, which film goes to win greatest image

The most effective methods to know who’s going to win in every class is to have a look at which movies and actors have achieved greatest in different award exhibits thus far this 12 months. Some award exhibits do a greater job of predicting the Oscars than others.

I, myself, do not construct fashions to assist us know who’s going to win Oscars, however I do know someone who does. Walter Hickey, who runs the Numlock Information publication and award season complement. So I requested him in regards to the awards main as much as the Oscars and why this 12 months’s greatest image race is troublesome to name.

Hickey famous to me that “it is by no means been more durable to get a great understanding of the Oscar race from precursors given [how fast the Academy has expanded its membership. Still,] the Producers Guild has the very best observe report among the many precursors.”

The Producers Guild has referred to as seven of the final 10 greatest image winners, with three of these within the final 5 years. This favors “CODA,” which is definitely a slight underdog within the betting markets. Hickey identified to me, although, that “The Energy of the Canine” gained plenty of different huge time awards, reminiscent of BAFTA, the Critics Alternative Awards, Administrators Guild and the Golden Globe for greatest drama movie.

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Put one other approach, Hickey informed me “it’ll come down proper to the end.”

One different nugget from Hickey, Chastain did win the Display screen Actors Guild Award for greatest actress (making her the favourite). The “normally ridiculously predictive” BAFTA awards, nevertheless, did not really nominate any of the Oscar nominees on this class.

The Oscars have gotten extra various, although not all the time in the way in which you might suppose

Director of photography Ari Wegner, and director and producer Jane Campion on the set of 'The Power of the Dog.'
One of many huge costs in opposition to the Oscars and different award exhibits is that the winners are typically White and sometimes males.

I requested Hickey about this, who confirmed me that the statistics backed this up. As an illustration, there had been solely seven Black ladies nominated for greatest actress earlier than 2009. Since that time, there have been an equal variety of Black ladies (seven) nominated within the class.

This 12 months there are not any Black ladies nominated for greatest actress, however Smith, as talked about, is a heavy favourite in the very best actor class.
We additionally see that Campion may be very more likely to win greatest director. She’s simply the eighth girl to be nominated within the class, and she or he’d be simply the third to win it. Final 12 months, Chloe Zhao was the second.

So it does appear the awards have gotten extra various, although, to cite Hickey, it’s “a matter of perspective” whether or not the movie trade and the Oscars have rectified the dearth of variety sufficient.

A technique by which the Academy is clearly making an attempt to make amends for its previous is by opening up its membership. Hickey informed me “by my reckoning, greater than half of the present Academy has been admitted since 2011, and the group will seemingly settle in at round 10,000 members in some unspecified time in the future within the subsequent a number of years, up from a gradual state of round 6,000 members.”

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A lot of this development has been internationally. Per Hickey, “of the 819 people invited to affix in 2020, the Academy boasted 49% had been worldwide members from some 68 international locations that are not America.” This implies whereas we’re seeing extra “African Individuals… Asian Individuals [and Hispanic Americans]”, we’re actually seeing extra “Africans, Asian[s]… [and Central] and South Individuals.

There in all probability aren’t going to be that many individuals watching

On the prime, I stated that not as many individuals watch the Oscars as they used to. About 10 million individuals tuned into final 12 months’s present. That is frankly stunning to anybody who has any recollections of the Oscars being a type of occasions that the entire household watched.

As just lately as 2014, over 40 million individuals watched the Oscars. That had trended downward to 30 million for the present in 2019, however the coronavirus pandemic appeared to speed up the decline additional.

Now, to be clear, tv exhibits usually have seen their viewership drop. The highest-rated non-sports sequence had its viewership dip by 10 million from 2014 to final season, although clearly the Oscars plummeting scores are one thing extra distinctive.
The query is will there be a rebound with life principally returning to regular after the pandemic? We have already seen sports activities have a rebound after the pandemic, and my examination of a number of the polling suggests viewership is likely to be nearer to twenty million.
A lot of that 20 million will in all probability be Democrats. They’ve lengthy been twice as more likely to watch the Oscars as Republicans.
I am unsure ABC (the community airing the Oscars) is worrying an excessive amount of about viewership. The community is getting round $2 million per 30-second commercial, which is best than final 12 months.

We’ll must see if these advertisers get their cash’s price.

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Movie Reviews

The Bouncer (2024) – Movie Review

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The Bouncer (2024) – Movie Review

The Bouncer, 2024.

Directed by Massimiliano Cerchi.
Starring John Ozuna, Costas Mandylor, Rosmary Yaneva, Vincent Rivera, Nick Turturro, Gerald Okamura and Tayah Kansik.

SYNOPSIS:

In Romania, fugitive Frank Sharp takes a job as a bouncer. Saving a woman from abuse, he discovers she’s trafficked. They escape together but are relentlessly hunted.

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Opening with Frank Sharp (John Ozuna) starting his new role as a nightclub doorman in Romania, The Bouncer wastes no time in setting its story into motion. Sharp has barely started his job before we get a sense of his moral fibre as he struggles to standby when the crime boss, Kane is using his hands to discipline his girlfriend, Silvia (Rosmary Yaneva). Despite his cohort’s warnings to turn a blind eye, Sharp inevitably can’t and when he does intervene he and Silvia (who has been trafficked) go on the run with a criminal organisation on their tail. Fight scenes and car chases ensue.

If it all sounds familiar, it’s because The Bouncer takes a tried and tested formula that feels like the kind of film that was almost limitlessly turning up on the shelves of your local Blockbuster or Ma and Pa video store back in the 90s. Where we get a little variation is that Ozuna, whilst playing a character haunted by a troubled past, isn’t a dark, brooding and flawed hero. He has a strong moral code, drawn to help the good folk overcome their evil oppressors. That’s not to say he takes the softly softly approach, because Sharp (with help from Ozuna’s martial arts background) delivers no shortage of double dick punch beatdowns. 

Ozuna has enough sincerity and humility to make Sharp likeable and he’s backed by a solid cast. Mandylor always relishes playing the villain and is suitably gruff and menacing as Kane, whilst Turturro (as always) brings his A game in a small role as a Doctor. Then there’s the always-welcome presence of the inimitable Gerald Okamura whose inclusion definitely makes this feel like a lost video action special from the 90s (which is obviously a good thing). Prolific producer/actor, Simon Phillips also pops up as Ozuna’s fellow bouncer who helps him along the way. Phillips has also just unleashed one of the barrage of Mickey Mouse-themed public domain horror riffs racing to get to audiences first. The Mouse Trap managed to get over the line first. 

Massimiliano Cerchi has been there, done it and got the T-shirt (and the gold chain, which he dons in an enjoyable director’s cameo). The budget leaves it rough around the edges in places but Cerchi manages to bring it on home and unlike all too many action films these days, keeps things lithe with a runtime that comes in at comfortably under 1 hour 20 minutes. As said, there are some refreshing touches laced throughout thanks to Adrian Milnes’s script that doesn’t retread that tired miserable (anti-)hero trope (as seen with Jean-Claude Van Damme’s jaded and broken anti-hero in Darkness of Man) that every film of this ‘Taken style’ ilk seems to follow.

One other pleasing aspect here is the use of Romania as a location. 20 years ago it was a staple of the DTV action realm with the likes of Van Damme, Seagal and Lundgren virtually residents they made so many films in the country. Of late, Romania doesn’t seem to be as frequently used. Here we get a nice mix of cold modern streets, grimy back streets and remote buildings as Sharp and Silvia try to stay ahead of their enemies. Those action scenes set within the Romanian locales are nicely put together but have a ceiling due to budgetary restrictions. The car chases are short and to the point but perhaps leave you longing for a car flip or explosion here or there. You can’t have it all, I guess and having worked in low-budget cinema I know all too well how difficult it is to eek out every cent to deliver bang for the buck. 

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Overall this is a simple but enjoyable action film that delivers what audiences expect and yet still manages to lace in some fresh touches. It doesn’t resort to being relentlessly dour, or overly wise-cracking, striking a good middle ground that not many sit within nowadays. It doesn’t reinvent the wheel, but this motor definitely has a smooth ride. 

Flickering Myth Rating – Film: ★ ★ / Movie: ★ ★ ★

Tom Jolliffe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=embed/playlist

 

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'Wicked' and 'Gladiator II' jolt the box office with a combined $170 million

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'Wicked' and 'Gladiator' set the stage for gravity-defying box office weekend

Universal Pictures’ “Wicked” needed no lessons in how to be popular at the domestic box office this weekend, opening at No. 1 to the tune of $114 million, according to studio estimates.

That’s the highest opening ever for a film based on a Broadway musical, way ahead of 2014’s “Into the Woods” ($31 million). “Wicked” smashed the same record globally, bringing in a total of $164.2 million and surpassing 2012’s “Les Misérables” ($103 million).

In second place this weekend was Paramount Pictures’ “Gladiator II,” which launched at $55.5 million in the United States and Canada — the biggest domestic opening ever for an R-rated film released in November, not adjusted for inflation.

Jon M. Chu’s adaptation of the first act of Winnie Holzman and Stephen Schwartz’s hit Broadway musical fell slightly short of recent analyst expectations in the $120-million to $140-million range, falling closer to the studio’s more modest pre-release projection of $110 million.

“Wicked” cost an estimated $150 million to make, not counting marketing.

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Meanwhile, the legacy sequel to Ridley Scott’s early-aughts best picture winner came in lower than both analyst and studio projections, which ranged from $60 million to $75 million. The film had a pre-marketing budget of $250 million.

Still, the solid performances of both movies are an early, much-needed holiday gift to the movie theater industry, which has suffered a disappointing autumn thanks to critical and commercial flops such as Warner Bros.’ “Joker: Folie à Deux” and Amazon MGM Studios’ “Red One.”

“It couldn’t have come at a better time,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.

“What’s happening right now is the perfect recipe for success for movie theaters heading into 2025,” he added. “It’s how you finish the race, right?”

Rounding out the top five at the domestic box office this weekend were “Red One,” which grossed $13.28 million in its sophomore weekend for a North American total of $52.91 million; Angel Studios’ “Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin,” which debuted at $5.12 million; and Sony Pictures’ “Venom: The Last Dance,” which devoured $4 million in its fifth outing for a total of $133.83 million, according to estimates from measurement firm Comscore.

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“On behalf of the people who operate movie theatres around the world, congratulations to our studio partners and the creative community for one of the most successful November weekends ever at the box office,” said Michael O’Leary, president of the National Assn. of Theatre Owners, in a statement.

“This is a tremendous catalyst for a strong box office going into December and the new year,” he said.

Arriving 21 years after its source material took Broadway by storm, “Wicked” stars Ariana Grande as Glinda, the Good Witch of the North, and Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba, the Wicked Witch of the West, before Dorothy and friends followed the yellow brick road to the Emerald City. The highly anticipated reframing of “The Wizard of Oz” also counts Jeff Goldblum, Jonathan Bailey, Marissa Bode and Michelle Yeoh among its principal cast.

The movie’s ubiquitous rollout was fueled by an aggressive marketing campaign that saw Universal partner with 400 brands worldwide — including Starbucks, Ulta Beauty, Bloomingdales and Target — to paint the shelves Glinda pink and Elphaba green.

“Wicked” also benefited from mostly positive reviews hyping the performances of its leading sorceresses. The film received a 90% rating on review aggregation site Rotten Tomatoes, and a A grade from audiences polled by CinemaScore. The audience skewed heavily female. Women accounted for 72% of the domestic opening weekend box office.

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Jim Orr, head of domestic distribution at Universal Pictures, was particularly glad that “Wicked” seems to be playing pretty evenly across the country — not just over-performing in coastal regions that tend to see more traffic.

“To see certain markets like Nashville and Salt Lake City over-index like they are is very gratifying,” Orr said.

“Very encouraging to a long, healthy run at the domestic box office.”

It’s a big win for Universal and its leader Donna Langley, who was recently elevated to chair of NBCUniversal Entertainment & Studios. The Comcast-owned studio has often bet big on the musical movie genre — sometimes to great success (“Mamma Mia!” and “Les Misérables”) and other times to disastrous results (“Cats,” “Dear Evan Hansen”).

“The history of box office is littered with musicals that failed,” Dergarabedian said.

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In an effort to evade the curse of the movie musical, some studios have recently concealed the show tunes when promoting titles such as Paramount’s “Mean Girls” or Warner Bros.’ “Wonka.” But this strategy has been known to backfire, and “Wicked” took the opposite approach.

“The marketing team [behind ‘Wicked’] did a fantastic job of embracing wholeheartedly — as they should — the musical aspects of this,” Dergarabedian added.

“This is a huge result for the genre and sets the bar really high.”

“Wicked Part Two,” covering the second act of the stage production, is scheduled to bow next year.

Also new to domestic theaters this weekend was “Gladiator II,” which stars Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal and Denzel Washington as dueling warriors and emperors of ancient Rome. Rounding out the main cast of the bloody historical drama are Joseph Quinn and Connie Nielsen.

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The long-awaited “Gladiator” follow-up drew mixed-to-positive reviews, receiving a 71% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and a B grade from audiences polled by CinemaScore.

“The fact that we were 52% under [the age of] 35 shows that we tapped into a new audience for the film, and not just in service of the legacy audience,” said Chris Aronson, head of domestic distribution at Paramount Pictures.

“That’s very heartening … of the film itself, of our marketing efforts and of its playability.”

The next major studio entry is Disney’s “Moana 2,” which opens in wide release the Wednesday before Thanksgiving.

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Sookshmadarshini Review: A Cleverly Written Thrill

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Sookshmadarshini Review: A Cleverly Written Thrill

BOTTOM LINE
A Cleverly Written Thrill

RATING
3/5

CENSOR
U/A, 2h 22m


What Is the Film About?

Ammachi (granny) goes missing from Basil Joseph’s home, and his neighbor Nazriya Nazim starts suspecting him for several reasons. Basil Joseph claims that Ammachi’s disappearance is due to her Alzheimer’s disease, but Nazriya remains unconvinced. Is there more to her suspicion? What serious turn does the story take, and what is the real reason behind Ammachi’s mysterious disappearance? These questions form the core plot of Sookshmadarshini.

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Performances

Basil Joseph and Nazriya Nazim compete with each other in running the show with their seamless performances, delivering exactly what a thriller drama needs.

Both carry the film on their shoulders through the cat-and-mouse, tit-for-tat narrative. Though Sookshmadarshini is a thriller, it stands out in their filmography due to the superb balance and finesse they bring to their performances.

The styling and performances perfectly complement the story, as expected from a quality Malayalam film.


Analysis

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Sookshmadarshini is directed by MC Jithin, who previously directed Nonsense, a film that also grabbed the attention of Telugu OTT viewers.

In Sookshmadarshini, director MC handles a simple plot with a suspenseful hook but needs to tightly guard the secret and maintain the viewer’s attention until the very last scene.

While the first half feels simple and slow, and the director seems to be trying too hard not to reveal even the slightest hint, the mix of humor and suspense keeps the narrative engaging.

By the time we reach the interval, the story pulls us in, yet the success lies in the fact that nothing is really revealed.

At the same time, it feels like the buildup in the first half raises high expectations for the second half, which must deliver big; otherwise, it risks becoming frustrating.

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The second half introduces more intrigue through a sister character, and the suspense around the ‘secret’ driving all the drama becomes even tighter.

Although most of the story takes place in a neighborhood between two houses, the quality technical work -be it the camera or the background score -elevates the suspense as the director pushes the story forward.

It might not a perfect thriller but offers enough to keep you hooked, especially in the second half.

Some exaggeration or logical misses in Nazriya’s character might be noticeable, but they don’t affect the viewer’s engagement, which is the best part.

Also, the director successfully breaks away from the regular beats of a typical comedic thriller, adding a sense of freshness.

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Overall, Sookshmadarshini is a cleverly written, smart mix of comedy and suspense, with the director maintaining the secret until the climax through an engaging narrative. The film also offers superb, fresh BGM and visuals that perfectly match the theme, making it a satisfying watch.


Performances by Others Actors

Sookshmadarshini is a film that relies on its supporting cast as well, and their selection is flawless.

Actors like Manohari Joy who plays Ammachi (granny), Kottayam Ramesh, Deepak Parambol, and Sidharth Bharathan, along with the female cast -Akhila Bhargavan, Pooja Mohanraj, and Merin Philip -may not be familiar to Telugu audiences, but their performances clearly demonstrate how perfectly they fit their roles. Each one proves to be an asset to the film.


Music and Other Departments?

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First and foremost, the background score by Christo Xavier is terrific, we must say. It is one of the best BGMs of the year. It’s neither too loud nor too soft; instead, it sounds fresh and, most importantly, perfectly matches the situations, elevating them to a whole new level. He has justified every single penny of his remuneration.

Camera work by Sharan Velayudhan is perfect. The film moves between two houses for the most part, but the camera angles and visual quality never feel boring or low-budget. He has done full justice to what the film requires.

Editing by Chaman Chakko could have been sharper. Though Sookshmadarshini is an engaging watch, it does feel like it could have been sharper.

Though the small VFX work handled by Black Maria Studio is slick, especially showing WhatsApp conversations as text on screen, it came out trendy and of good quality.

Production values by Happy Hours Entertainment and Ava Productions are quite adequate and immersive for the simple setup it requires, pulling it off with quality.

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Highlights?

Superb BGM that enhances most scenes

Sustaining suspense until the end

Engaging writing and narrative

Performances by Nazriya and Basil Joseph

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Drawbacks?

Logical flaws or occasional exaggeration

Feels forced at times to keep secrets until the end

A bit of a slow first half


Did I Enjoy It?

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Yes, it’s an engaging mix of humor and thriller.

Will You Recommend It?

Yes, without hesitation.

Sookshma Darshini Movie Review by M9

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