Voters have placed Mahomes in the top tier on 249 of 250 ballots over the past five seasons, including all 150 over the past three.

“Is there a zero category (above Tier 1)?” a defensive coordinator asked.

What more is there to say about Mahomes?

“Last year, there was so much adversity with the drops, the Kadarius Toney issues, the lack of guys being able to uncover and separate,” an offensive coach said. “You knew as a competitor he was frustrated. But I watched him just battle and grind it out and not make excuses and dig in. I think he is an extremely tough human being. A lot of people could have been pissed and bitched. If that had happened, the whole thing could have unraveled.”

If Tom Brady remains the GOAT, Mahomes is closing that gap.

“I know people who were taking Philly or San Francisco in the Super Bowl,” a defensive coordinator said. “Dude, they are playing Mahomes. You take Mahomes. He’s like Brady when Brady was in his prime. You can’t bet against that dude because he’s the best in the business.”

An offensive coordinator had Mahomes as his only Tier 1 QB this year.

“The only player to win big with a bad defense,” this coordinator said.

The 2022 Chiefs won the Super Bowl while ranking 29th in combined EPA on defense and special teams. The 2019 and 2022 Chiefs had the worst combined postseason EPA on defense and special teams of any Super Bowl winners since at least 2000, per TruMedia.

The 43 Tier 1 votes for Burrow are six fewer than he received last year after his latest injury, which required surgery on his throwing wrist, amplified durability concerns.

“You love everything about him, but at some point, physically, his body is going to fail,” a defensive coach who has faced Burrow multiple times said.

Burrow’s confidence is one of his most endearing qualities.

“He is a cool, calm, collected, confident version of Kirk Cousins,” another coach said. “He might have a little better arm strength, but the skill set is very similar, except Burrow is not an overthinker. He just has this confidence that he’s right, and he throws with that purpose and that confidence, and normally, he is right.”

Injuries cost Burrow six games as a rookie (knee) and seven last season (calf).

“He is definitely a 1,” a head coach said. “He is an accurate, touch passer with anticipation, but they gotta be careful. He is getting hurt on his throwing arm. You have injuries to your legs like he’s had, that will affect your arm. I’m curious to see how the ball comes off his hand this year.”

Allen, like Burrow, landed in Tier 1 for a third consecutive year. He commanded five fewer Tier 1 votes this year compared to last but remained solidly within the top group.

“For me, Mahomes and Josh Allen are the two guys right now that people are the most afraid to play,” a head coach said. “They do not go in and say they are as afraid to go play Joe Burrow. Maybe that is just from a playmaking standpoint. I think Joe is great, but these two (Mahomes and Allen) put teams on their backs and win.”

The cost of Allen’s playmaking — 22 turnovers last season, second-most in the NFL behind Sam Howell — explains why 11 voters did not place him in Tier 1.

“The reason I put him as a 2, I’m wondering if people have caught up to him a little bit,” an offensive coach said. “If he can’t extend the down, it is hard for him to stay on schedule and protect the football. When you see guys throwing bad interceptions, why did they go there with the ball? Is it because they are not understanding what is in front of them?”

Most voters felt Allen handled pure-pass situations well enough to carry his team in critical moments, separating him from players in Tier 2.

“He can pass to win it, and he can just say, ‘Screw it, I’m going to scramble today because my passing sucks,’ and still win it,” another voter said.

Over the past three seasons, Allen leads the NFL in combined passing and rushing touchdowns with 128, 17 more than Mahomes at No. 2. His 59 turnovers rank second to Trevor Lawrence (60).

“If he does not turn the ball over, he is going to make plenty of plays to win the games,” another head coach said. “I think he is a top-three or top-four guy in the league.”

Jackson surged to the brink of Tier 1 with more top-tier votes this year (23) than he commanded over the previous three combined (20).

“He’s a fantastic dual-threat guy, he’s explosive, he’s dangerous,” an offensive coach said. “This past year, with (new Ravens offensive coordinator Todd) Monken, I thought he took a big step and became a passer. To me, it was so different from the previous years.”

The line between being a good passer and expertly handling pure-pass situations like Baltimore faced while trailing Kansas City in the playoffs is what kept Jackson a few votes away from joining Mahomes, Burrow and Allen in the top group.

For some, Jackson transcends the criteria.

“I just think putting an MVP of this league in Tier 2 is being on some quarterback high horse of what we think it’s supposed to look like,” a voter who placed Jackson in Tier 1 said.

Faring better in the playoffs, where he has a career 75.7 passer rating and a 2-4 record despite strong defensive support, might push Jackson over the top.

“He’s a 1 with limitations for me,” a defensive coordinator said. “You can win a lot of games with him. When you watched it against Kansas City, he can’t pass when he has to. That is still true. But he is still a wonderful football player.”

Stafford’s 1.64 average and No. 5 ranking are both personal bests in 11 years of Tiers voting.

“When people put their top 10 quarterbacks together, he is always eight or nine, but he is better than anyone thinks,” a voter placing Stafford in Tier 1 said. “So consistent, so strong, reads defenses so well, can do anything with his arm talent. He is the reason that team is so good.”

Voters lauded Stafford’s ability to handle pure-pass situations.

“I do not want him to have the ball late,” a defensive coordinator said.

A reworked contract gives Stafford more money in 2024 while giving the Rams an easy out after the season, raising questions about his future.

“The guy delivers,” a GM said. “He handles pure pass probably as well as anybody. He won a Super Bowl. He consistently brings his team back. I have no problem with a 1 on him.”

Some fear Stafford could be winding down physically at 36. The Rams’ recommitment to the run game could help him play longer.

“He’s always been a great player,” a head coach said. “But to unlock the Super Bowl Matt Stafford, getting him with Sean (McVay) and putting him in a structure where they had a run game and had a defense was critical.”

Prescott matched his career best for average vote (2.10) and ranking (ninth) while making a fifth consecutive appearance in Tier 2.

“Dak can roll out of bed and throw for 450,” an offensive play caller said. “It’s unbelievable. It’s just those moments in the playoffs against the Niners or Packers where, if you want to be Tier 1, one of these times you’re going to have to put that team on your back and will your team to a win.”

Prescott’s five career games with 450-plus yards are tied with Drew Brees for second-most in NFL history (including playoffs) behind Ben Roethlisberger’s eight. Dan Marino, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are next with four apiece. Of those quarterbacks, Prescott is the only one never to reach a conference championship game.

“I have always given Dak a 2,” a defensive coordinator said. “When I did it this year, I gave him a 3. He proves year in and year out that he cannot get it done (in the postseason).”

At the other extreme, an exec from one of the Cowboys’ division rivals placed Prescott in Tier 1.

“Without him, they would be a very average or marginal team,” this exec said.

This is the fifth consecutive year Prescott ranked between ninth and 12th.

“Dak is probably the definition of a 2,” another defensive coordinator said. “There are some holes, he’s not perfect, but he’s about as steady of a 2 as you can be.”

Hurts slipped five spots after failing to sustain the momentum from his 2022 Super Bowl season.

“Hurts played so well the previous year, I am giving him a mulligan with some of the things they had going on offensively,” a coach who placed Hurts in Tier 2 said. “I do not think he was bad, necessarily.”

Some voters think Hurts will struggle to recapture the success he enjoyed when Shane Steichen was his offensive coordinator. One half-jokingly called him “a Tier 3 lock” without the tush push.

“If they can’t run the ball, Hurts is not effective,” a defensive coordinator said. “He can’t handle pure pass. When he got hurt and he became immobile and they had to throw the ball, he showed what he was. I think they might have paid a guy that they are going to have to have a really good team around to win games.”

The Eagles started 10-1 last season but finished 11-6.

“I still think he’s a 2,” another defensive coordinator said. “His makeup, unbelievable competitor. This is a dude who, Tua beats him out (in college at Alabama), he goes somewhere else (Oklahoma) and leads that team to (the College Football Playoff). He is going to come up short quarterback talent-wise in terms of accuracy and whatever, but all his other s— elevates him to a 2.”

While Saquon Barkley’s addition signaled an organizational commitment to the ground game, voters see new coordinator Kellen Moore as more pass-oriented in nature.

“The word is out there, if you run zero (blitz) against Hurts, or show zero and back everyone out, he will panic,” a defensive coach said. “That has to change. They lose Jason Kelce, who handled the protections, basically did everything, and you bring in a coordinator who likes to drop back. It will be interesting.”

Cousins’ steady climb continues with a career-best 2.38 average, the third consecutive season his average has improved.

“He has gotten way more courageous in the pocket,” a defensive coach said. “I have to give him that. He understands football, can throw the ball on time, can make all the throws. Can he carry the team and put them on his back by himself? I haven’t seen that. Maybe he is more like a Purdy type of guy.”

An offensive coach pushed back on the Purdy comp.

“Purdy has done it with a really good roster, and it’s really cool what he has done,” this coach said. “I’m not trying to take any credit from that kid, but Kirk has done it with different people. He has consistently kept his team in it over time. That is where I give him the edge.”

Cousins was arguably playing as well as ever before suffering a torn Achilles tendon and signing with the Falcons. Atlanta’s decision to draft Michael Penix Jr. in the first round raises questions about Cousins’ future.

“I think Cousins will not be the quarterback in Atlanta next year,” one voter said. “Unless Atlanta wins multiple games in the playoffs, the season is a failure for Kirk, unfortunately, based on the desire to see Michael Penix.”

Tagovailoa’s stock has improved every year since his 2021 Tiers debut, putting him on the verge of Tier 2. But the gap between his new $53.1 million annual salary and his Tier 3 status is conspicuous.

“Miami has done an incredible job with Tua, giving him easy throws, giving him easy looks, catch-and-runs to 4.3 guys,” an offensive coach with AFC East experience said. “If you are sitting there in a pure-pass situation, if he has to sit there and read stuff and go through his progressions, I don’t have a lot of confidence in what that is going to look like.”

It didn’t look good against the Chiefs last season, but Tagovailoa’s production was sufficient for 24 voters to place him in Tier 2. That’s up from seven last year.

“I put him right in the middle of that Tier 2 stack,” a head coach said. “You have basically got a guy who is a perfect fit for Mike McDaniel. He is going to throw for 4,500 yards and a gazillion touchdowns, and statistically, it’s going to be hard to deny. But, kind of like with Kyle Shanahan’s quarterbacks, what are you going to do when it’s the (playoffs) against the Chiefs and it’s a two-minute drive and play-action and all that s— ain’t going to help you?”

Purdy passing Tagovailoa was notable in that both play in highly acclaimed schemes on teams with elite offensive weaponry.

“Tua does a great job anticipating,” another head coach said. “I don’t see him make it right when it’s not right. Purdy does. If there is a free hitter on the edge, Purdy can spin out, keep his eyes downfield. I don’t see Tua have that creativity or overall athleticism to do that.”

The general feeling on Murray is that the Cardinals must play a specific way with him, and it remains to be seen whether that’s a good thing for Arizona after Murray returned from a torn ACL to make eight relatively understated starts last season.

“People would say, ‘Kyler Murray, Tier 2? How?’” a head coach placing Murray in Tier 2 said. “He goes in and beats the Eagles (35-31 in Week 17). This is a guy who once had a team (7-1). He does have limitations and/or a hole in his game that make it hard for him to be Tier 1 ever.”

Murray peaked in Tier 2 entering 2022, but his stock suffered after he signed a contract with a “homework” clause, and then was injured.

“His speed and elusiveness as an elite trait have waned a little, and if you make him play as a passer, he can’t do it,” an offensive coach said. “I don’t think he can see the windows, and I’m not sure he knows what he is looking at.”

Murray should have a better chance to change those perceptions as he returns to full health this season, with an offense that is not new to him and a potentially elite receiving talent in rookie first-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr.

“If you just grade the flashes, he can make crazy plays and have a game, but I don’t think you can win consistently with him,” a defensive coordinator said.

Carr’s No. 20 ranking ties for his worst in 10 Tiers appearances. His 3.00 average is his worst since 2015, when Carr was entering his second season and on the upswing.

“He’s a 3 without (Jon) Gruden,” an offensive coach said. “Gruden could carry the mantel of all the leadership, where Carr could just snuggle up under the umbrella of Gruden. He is exposed now. He is the umbrella. It’s not comfortable. That takes away from his production.”

Carr’s statistics from last season aligned with Mayfield’s. Both led teams that finished 9-8. But voters see Carr as a declining player lacking the intangibles they think are strengths for Mayfield.

“We talk like Baker is some revitalization story,” a head coach said. “No, Baker has taken two teams to division titles. Derek Carr was in that same NFC South division with a better defense.”

The Saints ranked ninth and the Buccaneers were 18th last season in EPA per play on defense, per TruMedia.

“What holds (Carr) back is a lack of toughness in the pocket, and some of his decision making within the scheme,” another exec said.

Smith plateaued this year after surging into Tier 3 following his breakout 2022 season. That was enough to finish one spot ahead of Russell Wilson, the quarterback he replaced in Seattle.

“He was a consistent player for two years in a row as a starter, and he played good ball,” an offensive coordinator who placed Smith in Tier 2 said. “They didn’t win because of their run game. They didn’t win because of defense. They won because the pass game was pretty consistent.”

Over the past two seasons, Seattle ranked 12th in EPA per pass play on offense and fourth-worst in EPA per play on defense.

“There are two guys in the 3 category who can be a little different,” a defensive coach said. “Trevor Lawrence is one, and then Justin Fields can win the game because of his feet. Everybody else, not so much. I don’t feel I’m going to lose a game because of Geno Smith.”

This is the fourth consecutive year Wilson has fallen in Tiers since he entered 2020 as a unanimous Tier 1 selection.

“I would not be surprised if he has success in Pittsburgh because of the culture and system,” an assistant GM said.

Wilson will play under a potential future Hall of Fame head coach for the third time after starting with Pete Carroll and bouncing from Sean Payton to Mike Tomlin.

“To me, he would be a 5 if he wasn’t with Tomlin,” an offensive coordinator said. “Tomlin is a psychologist. He can push the right buttons. However good Russell Wilson can be, Mike Tomlin will figure it out.”

Wilson’s slide this offseason was only about one-third as large as the slide he suffered in 2023.

“I didn’t think that would go well with Sean (Payton),” the head coach said. “I feel bad for all the scrutiny he has faced, some of which he brings on himself. I just don’t think he sees the field well. I see a guy that played a certain way and was able to do it at a high level for a certain period of time, and I just don’t think he has the athleticism to play that way.”

Another head coach said he thought Wilson remained good enough to “get you in and out of games” — the very definition of a veteran player straddling the line between Tiers 3 and 4. The Steelers have yet to decide whether Wilson or Justin Fields will start Week 1, amplifying concerns around Wilson.

“When you look at the stats in Denver, Russ did not play bad,” a defensive coordinator said. “He just wasn’t a good fit for Sean. Let’s see what he does this year. He can throw the deep ball — boy, can he throw the deep ball.”

The massive gap between the 19th-ranked quarterback salary ($25 million per year for Seattle’s Smith) and the No. 20 salary ($12.5 million for Minshew) conveys how the league sees Minshew: as a veteran who ideally might not start all 17 games.

“Nobody wants him to be a starter, probably even his own team, but he won games with Indy last year,” an offensive coach said. “When you play him, the kid is competitive. He will keep you in the game — and them. It’s going to be a fight.”

Voters give Colts coach Shane Steichen a significant share of credit for the success Indy enjoyed with Minshew in the lineup last season.

“Gardner Minshew is a real gutsy player,” a defensive coordinator said. “Everybody on the team is going to love him. He is going to extend plays with his legs. He’s smart. He will be able to function in the offense. But he’s just limited.”

Minshew, 7-6 as a starter last season, prevailed over Aidan O’Connell in the battle to start for the Raiders. He has never started more than 13 games in a season.

“I want to see what it looks like when he plays all 17,” a head coach said.