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NBA predictions: How bottom of the Eastern Conference will play out in 2024-25

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NBA predictions: How bottom of the Eastern Conference will play out in 2024-25

I always like to start my NBA previews at the bottom and work my way up. And when it comes to bottoming out, nobody does it better than the lottery teams in the Eastern Conference. Last season, four East squads lost at least 57 games, and overall, the conference had seven of the league’s 11 worst records.

The Detroit Pistons’ 28-game losing streak took top honors, but Charlotte actually had the league’s worst scoring margin; the Hornets, Washington Wizards and Pistons combined to win fewer games than five NBA teams.

So, yeah, it was bad — and I’m not sure it will get much better in 2024-25. With a loaded draft led by Duke forward Cooper Flagg, several teams have ample motivation to tank for a high lottery pick. A couple spent their offseason leaning into that strategy, notably the Brooklyn Nets, while the Chicago Bulls pivoted less overtly in the same direction. (Connoisseurs of performance-art-level tanking efforts, circle your calendars for April 11: Washington and Chicago face off in the second-to-last game of the season.)

Here’s an interesting side dish: With so many laggards and 10 teams required to advance to the postseason, it’s possible we’ll see a historically bad record qualify for the Play-In. Even if not, the potential is definitely there for five 55-loss teams in this conference, despite the fact that they frequently play one another.

With that said, let’s take a closer look at my bottom seven teams in the East — their projected records, what they’re doing and where they might be headed. (We’ll discuss the rest of the league later this week.)

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15. Washington Wizards (14-68)

I really couldn’t believe my eyes when my first run through projections spat out its results. Washington went 15-67 a year ago, and I sort of figured the Wizards would struggle to improve much upon that this season, but going through the math on my projections was jarring. This roster is bad.

The Wizards traded their best player from a year ago based on my BORD$ formula (Deni Avdjia, in a defensible swap for two firsts and two seconds) and lost starting point guard Tyus Jones to free agency. The best players on the team are Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole, I guess, and there’s a decent chance Kuzma is gone by February. And Malcolm Brogdon. And Corey Kispert. And maybe newly signed free agent Jonas Valančiūnas, too.

At least we know Poole won’t be going anywhere, not with the $96 million he’s owed over the next three years. (The contract could escalate even higher, but his incentives for reaching the playoffs or making All-Defense seem safe for the foreseeable future.) Poole will get a chance to rehab his value by playing on the ball this season, hopefully not to the detriment of the other four people hoping to touch it.

Obviously, this is all part of a down-to-the-studs rebuild, a welcome shift in mentality after years of chasing any shiny object that might net the Wizards the eighth seed and an immediate self-congratulatory parade. However, Washington’s failures to move on from Bradley Beal until it was too late have resulted in a more painful reset. This year is likely to be the necessary nadir before Washington can start the long trudge back up the standings.

The Wizards drafted three first-round picks this year, but all three are teenagers — and fairly raw ones. Realistically, they’ll take their lumps while they figure things out. Center Alex Sarr, selected with the second pick, is a potential defensive monster due to his quick feet, fast hands and 7-foot frame, while offensively he shows enough dexterity and ballhandling on the perimeter to provide some hope that there’s a unicorn in there somewhere.

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That said, the 2024 version of Sarr is going to be a clear minus on offense, offering little threat in the post but also not far along enough as a shooter to scare anyone. The low-key swing skill here is his hands — he struggled to snare contested rebounds and catch in traffic last year. He may also play extensively power forward next to Valančiūnas while the Wizards wait for his body to fill out.

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The other youngsters are a similar mix of promise and finger-crossing. Late-lottery pick Bub Carrington — acquired thanks to the Avdija trade — needs to work on his body and defense, but he had a solid summer league and might be the closest thing this team has to a legit sixth man. Late first-rounder Kyshawn George, meanwhile, is a 3-and-D hopeful who likely has a lot of Capital City Go-Go in his immediate future. Carrying over from a year ago, Bilal Coulibaly teased with potential at times but needs to be a more consistent shooter and decision-maker. The Avdija trade likely gives him a chance to start.

Watching the rookies learn while the Wizards get pummeled every night is the best thing that can be said for the Wizards-viewing experience this year. Poole vying with Cam Thomas for the league lead in field goal attempts per minute will offer a certain kind of entertainment, and Valančiūnas shot fake drinking games will be as merry as ever. Otherwise, this year is about player development, asset accumulation and scraping their way to a win total that keeps them out of history books.

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Brooklyn’s Ben Simmons looks up court as he pushes the ball against Boston in February. (Sarah Stier / Getty Images)

14. Brooklyn Nets (21-61)

In the wake of their post Kevin Durant–Kyrie Irving implosion, the Nets are going to be really bad this season. But they also have a direction, one that wasn’t possible before, after regaining access to their own draft picks via the Mikal Bridges trade. That deal made tanking plausible — actually, mandatory — as the Nets can now freely pursue one of the league’s worst three records to maximize their lottery odds. Based on the roster, they have this part under control.

The Nets have just enough veteran talent on hand to lose respectably and avoid being historically terrible, but few of them will remain in the borough beyond the trade deadline. Point guard Dennis Schröder and forwards Bojan Bogdanović and Dorian Finney-Smith are likely spending the first half of the season auditioning for their next employers; Cam Johnson is 28 and signed for two years beyond this one, but he might consider a month-to-month lease as well. And hey, Ben Simmons is here for one last September of back-in-the-gym Instagrams. He’s either a $40-million expiring contract to put into a potential trade or a February buyout.

Re-signed center Nic Claxton is likely the one long-term keeper on the roster, although other young players will audition to be part of the future. Thomas, meanwhile, is likely to lead the team (if not the league) in field goal attempts but will need to generate higher-quality looks — and occasionally even let a teammate shoot — if he wants to be part of the long-term plan.

Deeper down, keep an eye on second-year pro Noah Clowney, who in summer league looked like he may pay long-term dividends after he was drafted as a raw teenager in 2023. Reclamation projects such as Ziaire Williams and Killian Hayes also will get their chances, as will fringe-rotation finds Trendon Watford and Jalen Wilson.

If you’re looking two years ahead and beyond, the Nets will jettison nearly all this roster flotsam except Claxton, Clowney and possibly Johnson. They have three late first-round picks in 2025 in addition to their own, four extra firsts in future seasons and max cap space coming on line next summer. The Nets also are sitting on a $23-million trade exception from the Bridges deal, although it’s likely to go unused until after the season given that they’re already pushing the tax line. (Incentives for Johnson could theoretically put them over in the absence of other moves.)

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All of this will make for an ugly 2024-25, but Brooklyn basketball should get dramatically better from there.

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It’s desperately needed medicine, but that won’t make it easier to swallow. The Hornets are done chasing 39 wins as cheaply as possible and fully embarking on a new, post-Michael Jordan era. Rick Schnall and Gabe Plotkin bought the team from Jordan in 2023 but held off on replacing the Friends of Mike in the front office and changing coaches until this past summer. Jeff Peterson — a veteran of successful rebuilds in Atlanta and Brooklyn — now has the conch in the front office, while Charles Lee replaces Steve Clifford on the sideline.

Now all they have to do is change the players. I kid, but this is not a great situation. Charlotte won 21 games a year ago, and even that was a bit of a miracle: The Hornets were 28th in offense, 29th in defense and last in net margin. Even in the Charmin-soft lower reaches of the East, making the Play-In with this roster seems unlikely.

The Bugs have one All-Star talent in LaMelo Ball, who has appeared in just 58 games over the past two seasons thanks to a series of ankle sprains and has often seemed indifferent (especially on defense) when he’s on the court. Beyond him, there are some solid players but zero star power, unless perhaps promising forward Brandon Miller (13.0 PER as a rookie) erupts in his second season.

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Charlotte does seem to understand its situation, at least, which is more than can be said of some previous iterations of this franchise. This offseason, the Hornets used their cap room not on Gordon Hayward-esque splurges, but to take in salary and talent that other teams unloaded: two seconds from the Denver Nuggets to take Reggie Jackson, a second from the San Antonio Spurs to absorb the unwanted contract guarantee of old friend Devonte’ Graham and three more to take in the necessary outgoing players from New York to complete the Karl-Anthony Towns trade.

Conversely, the only acquisition of note was a reasonable two seconds going outbound to bring in 23-year-old, signed-through-2027 wing Josh Green. Bringing back Miles Bridges likely leaves many holding their noses due to his off-court history, but it leaves Charlotte with a full-strength starting five that won’t be embarrassed. Baby steps.

Those moves aren’t going to shake the foundations of the East, but they’re the first step in a rebuild, one that also must include upping the off-court investment from what’s been one the league’s most frugal franchises.

The biggest variable for the coming year is whether fly-swatting center Mark Williams can come back from a 2023-24 campaign lost to back surgery. Charlotte passed on a top-notch rim-protection prospect in Donovan Clingan on draft night to take a more speculative plunge on French forward Tidjane Salaun, and one wonders how much Williams factored into that. (For what it’s worth: I had Salaun 16th on my board, but I’ve also been told three other teams were ready to take him in the top 10 if Charlotte didn’t.)

Lower on the food chain, Charlotte will likely take teams’ temperatures on solid rotation players such as Grant Williams and Cody Martin to determine their trade market. Also, keep an eye on guards Tre Mann and Vasilije Micić trying to establish their careers after failing to take flight in Oklahoma City. Mann, in particular, might actually be something after playing 28 solid games in Charlotte after the trade; he’s a restricted free agent after the season. Micić is 30 and could be trade bait if he steps forward in his second season on this side of the ocean.

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Looking at the chessboard, Charlotte is pretty asset-dry for a team in this position, owning only two protected firsts in 2027 from Miami and Dallas in addition to its own. (The Hornets technically owe their 2025 first to San Antonio, but it’s top-14 protected and will revert to second-rounders in 2026 and 2027 if, as expected, Charlotte misses the playoffs.)

The cap situation is relatively clean, but meaningful room looks unlikely the next two summers unless they trade Ball. Lee and Peterson will start the long effort of putting their imprint on this team, but even with favorable lottery luck, results might take a while.

12. Chicago Bulls (27-55)

The Bulls finally are doing what they should have when they changed management four years ago: launching a rebuild and lining up with a significantly younger roster for 2024-25.

The bad news is that they’ll likely be worse this year and face a slow slog back uphill, especially with few trade assets coming back in the rebuild and a future first still owed to San Antonio from the initial DeMar DeRozan deal. Nonetheless, this was the only move left on the chessboard after the Bulls’ 2021 asset-spending spree yielded three years of averageness and a roster that was only getting older and more expensive.

Chicago’s overarching plan this summer was the correct strategy, but the execution still felt bumpy. Not extracting a draft pick from Oklahoma City in the Alex Caruso-Josh Giddey trade seemed like a missed opportunity, as the Thunder have a million future picks and weren’t operating from a position of great leverage. The Bulls also dropped five years and $90 million on The Idea of Patrick Williams, something that felt more like a sunk cost fallacy on a player selected fourth in the 2020 draft than an honest valuation of where he is right now as a basketball player.

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That money ended up mattering quite a bit later in the offseason. Among many what-ifs in Chicago is that if the Bulls hadn’t resigned Williams or if their ownership had been willing to pay into the tax, they could have taken in Harrison Barnes and an unprotected 2031 first-round pick swap from the Kings in the DeRozan trade. Instead, that asset went to San Antonio. The Bulls ended up with Chris Duarte, two second-round picks and cash. Yay?

The good news, again, is that there is a direction, and there is some real talent underlying it. Giddey was useless playing off the ball in Oklahoma City, but he’s a capable point forward with a smooth floater game and should get to showcase that skill set far more often with the Bulls.

First-round pick Matas Buzelis can be a high-impact two-way talent if he can up his shooting percentages and add a bit of lower-body strength, and combo guard Coby White has quietly become a very effective offensive player. Two other recent picks, athletic backup forwards Dalen Terry and Julian Phillips, hardly saw daylight last season, but each should get more opportunity.

Zach LaVine and Nikola Vučević are still Bulls, for now, and their contracts may keep them here a while longer. LaVine, at least, can be a major contributor for however long he’s around; he’s just not quite worth what he’s paid. The three years and $138 million remaining on his deal were widely reported to be a barrier to his departure dating back to the middle of last season.

Meanwhile, the baffling three-year, $60 million extension handed to Vučević in the 2023 offseason already looks indefensible. The Bulls backed him up by signing string bean Jalen Smith for three years and $27 million; at least he’s young, but this won’t fix the defensive hole in the middle. If you’re looking for another true five on this roster, two-way Adama Sanogo is the entire list.

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Finally, Lonzo Ball coming back would be a big help, but there’s a big difference between surviving offseason pickup games and being a productive player against NBA starters. It’s an amazing story if he returns and contributes, but we’ll temper our optimism until we see him impacting games that matter.

The badness of the East will likely keep the Bulls in the Play-In race for much of the year, but don’t get too excited: The Bulls owe a top-10 protected pick to San Antonio from the DeRozan trade. That makes it strongly in their interests to land no better than the league’s sixth-worst record and guarantee they keep the pick regardless of how the lottery turns out. In a related story, I’m picking them to finish with the NBA’s sixth-worst record.

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11. Detroit Pistons (28-54)

The good news is that this season should be less embarrassing than last year, or the year before that, or the year before that…

The Pistons haven’t won more than 23 games in a season since before the COVID-19 pandemic. They also haven’t won a playoff game since 2008, with just one winning season in that span.

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In the fifth year of its rebuild from the Andre Drummond “era,” Detroit not only failed to win 30 games for the ninth time since 2008, but also didn’t even get halfway there, setting an NBA record with 28 consecutive losses and hitting midseason at 4-37. Only a heroic 10-29 charge to the finish line saved it from the worst record in NBA history.

The Pistons cleaned house after the season, after the one-year sideline reign of Monty Williams proved disastrous and the four years of the Troy Weaver administration saw zero progress in accumulating either talent or draft capital. Former New Orleans and Brooklyn exec Trajan Langdon took over the front office, while no-nonsense J.B. Bickerstaff is the new head coach.

It will take more than an organizational facelift, however, to get this team on the right path. Years of poor decisions have left Detroit with little star-caliber talent despite annual lottery picks. The closest thing is guard Cade Cunningham, a skilled but not overly athletic player who bore a massive offensive load with near-zero floor spacing a year ago and ground out a 54.6 true shooting percentage on 30 percent usage.

More shooting should make his life easier, but he isn’t Luka Dončić, and the Pistons need to stop using him like he is. He’s their best player, because somebody has to be, but the offseason decision to give him a max extension was more based on hope than results.

In terms of shooting, Detroit added Simone Fontecchio at last year’s trade deadline and Tim Hardaway Jr., Tobias Harris and Malik Beasley in the offseason. Those are legit, meaningful upgrades. It would also help tremendously if 2022 lottery pick Jaden Ivey can turn the corner both as a shooter and a playmaker, as he represents the best possibility of unburdening some of Cunningham’s massive playmaking load.

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The frontcourt should be in better shape with Harris playing the four; while his contact was probably an overpay (two years, $52 million), he solidifies the lineup at its weakest spot and will be tradable money a year from now. He also should push Isaiah Stewart back to his natural center spot after last season’s failed power forward experiment. Beef Stew, the promising Jalen Duren and waiver pickup Paul Reed make for an effective trio, although Stewart may also be trade bait.

In the longer term, the best chance for the Pistons to make genuine progress lies in the development of their two most recent lottery picks. Forward Ausar Thompson is a plus athlete who plays hard, but his shooting is, shall we say, a bit subpar: Last season he achieved the near-impossible feat of having more airballs from 3 (23) than makes (18).

Detroit’s 2024 lottery pick, Ron Holland, is an explosive wing athlete. He was my top-ranked prospect before the draft. However, he will need work on his decision-making and shooting; he’s not anywhere near Thompson’s level of masonry, but how many guys like this can the Pistons play at one time?

On that note, Detroit’s biggest acquisition this summer might not be a player. Shooting coach Fred Vinson — who authored multiple miracles in New Orleans — came over with Langdon from the Pelicans and will have his hands full trying fixes on Thompson, Holland, Ivey and the rest of the gang.


Scottie Barnes argues a call against the Bulls early last season in Chicago. (Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

The Raptors have rather quickly gone from one of the most admired organizations in the league to Team Shrug Emoji. Can they get their mojo back?

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They embarked on rebuilding a year too late and ended up converting Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby into a grab bag of somewhat useful players and a couple of late first-round picks, with one still to come in 2026 from Indiana. The most valuable pick transacted was the one they sent out to acquire Jakob Poeltl from San Antonio. Yeah, not great.

Toronto passed on an opportunity to operate as a cap room team and instead picked up a $23 million option on Bruce Brown and extended a 33-year-old Kelly Olynyk for midlevel exception money. One can see a pathway where that might pay dividends, as the Raptors have enough expiring money and picks for a blockbuster trade if a big name becomes available. The Raptors also likely overreached on a $162.5 million extension for Immanuel Quickley in restricted free agency; he’s a valuable player, but it wasn’t clear against whom they were bidding.

That said, Toronto should be fine in first quarters, because 80 percent of the starting lineup is rock solid. Scottie Barnes made the All-Star team in his third season and is now the face of the franchise, Quickley is a solid two-way player whose lack of pure point guard skill is offset by Barnes’ heavy on-ball usage, and RJ Barrett was fantastic in the second half of last season and again for Canada in the Olympics, though he’s beginning the year injured. (While we’re here: The “BBQ” nickname for the Raptors’ three-best players might be the best thing they have going.)

Up front, Poeltl was an overpay asset-wise and a danger to innocent bystanders from the free-throw line, but he is a solid defensive center with some sneaky utility from the elbows on offense.

After that, it gets iffy fast. Brown seemed a possible fifth starter on paper until he had arthroscopic knee surgery before the season started; he’ll be trying to regain the impact he had in Denver after a rough 2023-24 for the Pacers and Raptors.

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Gradey Dick is a theoretical movement shooter who struggled in his rookie season but might have to start because the other options aren’t even theoretically good. First-round pick JaKobe Walter is a possible 3-and-D guy but out with a shoulder injury and probably at least a year away from helping.

Up front, Olynyk was unplayable in the Olympics. Chris Boucher’s deal is finally expiring, but he’s still around and likely will need to play as the fourth big. Deeper on the bench, if Walter isn’t in the rotation, that probably means either lukewarm meh from Ochai Agbaji and/or cameos from all-glove, no-bat ball-pressure specialist Davion Mitchell. I should note that I’m a card-carrying fan of second-round pick Jonathan Mogbo, but his limited shooting makes him a better fit on rosters with more spacing than this one.

Where does all this leave us? With a roster that’s interesting but not particularly good. The Raptors won’t be overtly terrible in a year when it’s probably beneficial to be terrible, and yet they face an uphill battle to get into the playoffs. Toronto has a good chance of failing upward into the Play-In Tournament, surely adding a sprinkle of excitement to the Canadian spring during their likely one-game postseason. One wonders if that also will be the bar for second-year coach Darko Rajaković, a well-liked figure in the league but one whose first season at the helm was a bumpy ride.

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It’s not really a Play-In Tournament unless the Hawks are involved.

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In a league where everyone is either contending or tanking, the Hawks are looking at a fourth straight season of life in the middle class. In an East with a clear top eight and a dismal bottom six, projecting Atlanta to land ninth feels like one of the safest bets on the board.

The Hawks had a productive offseason though, finally executing the overdue Dejounte Murray trade to break up a pairing with Trae Young that wasn’t working. In the process, they shored up a woeful defense and restocked a barren draft cupboard. Atlanta still won’t have its own pick in the 2025 draft, so nix those Sag for Flagg scenarios, but the Hawks will have the Lakers’ choice and likely Sacramento’s (top-12 protected) too, plus an extra 2027 first.

The Hawks also nabbed an honest-to-goodness wing defender in Dyson Daniels in that trade; while his shooting comes and goes, this stopper role is one the Hawks have unsuccessfully attempted to fill for years now. The 21-year-old Daniels also can take reps at backup point guard if second-year pro Kobe Bufkin proves unready. Either way, the guy finishing games at shooting guard is likely to be Bogdan Bogdanović, who was robbed of the sixth man award a year ago and figures to remain elite in this role for as long as his knees can hold up.

The good news is the Hawks won the draft lottery. The bad news is they won it in 2024, a year with no clear top pick. In some ways, Atlanta seemed to opt for fit over ceiling by selecting French forward Zaccharie Risacher. (How much should we worry that none of the scouts interviewed for this thought the top pick in the draft would be the best player?) However, Risacher is a tall, mobile forward who can defend down on the positional spectrum and has a good basketball IQ; if his shooting holds up, he might be the player Atlanta thought it was getting when it drafted (and then extended) De’Andre Hunter.

Atlanta’s other big offseason decision is extending the best player nobody talks about, forward Jalen Johnson. He blew up as a starter in his third season with 16.0 points and 8.7 rebounds, and at age 22, he should have plentiful opportunity to expand his game with Murray gone. Bookending him with Risacher could make for a pretty imposing forward combo two or three years down the road.

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That hints at another development in Atlanta — this team has become much younger. Daniels and Johnson are 22, Bufkin is 21, Risacher is 19 and Onyeka Okongwu is 23. All of them can guard, which is crucial when building around Young (himself not exactly a grizzled vet at 26). That’s the best hope for fixing last year’s 27th-ranked defense; the Hawks have never finished better than 21st in defensive efficiency in the Young era.

A succession issue at center also looms, where Clint Capela is 30 and on the last year of his deal, and Okongwu hasn’t been good enough to take over as a full-time starter. However, the Hawks are finally in a position where they can use most or all of the $23 million trade exception from the Murray trade on a replacement next summer without going into the tax, even after they pay Johnson. Moving Capela at the trade deadline also is an option, especially if they’re mired in the middle class as expected.

Overall, the Hawks might not win any more games than they did a year ago, but the arrow now points in a much healthier direction. They’re out of luxury tax hell, got 85 cents on the dollar back on the Murray trade and have the makings of a young core to carry them forward. Genuine progress in the standings, however, seems more likely a year from now.

(Top photos of LaMelo Ball and Kyle Kuzma: Patrick Smith, Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)

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Culture

‘A long road. A big mountain to climb’: Inside Matt Murray’s emotional journey back to the NHL

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‘A long road. A big mountain to climb’: Inside Matt Murray’s emotional journey back to the NHL

BUFFALO, N.Y. — Matt Murray looked up to the scoreboard above him, counted down the seconds as they disappeared and finally pumped his fist.

It had been 638 days since Murray last felt the feeling washing over him.

Bilateral hip surgery forced the Toronto Maple Leafs goalie out of the entire 2023-24 season, the final of a four-year contract. There was no guarantee the oft-injured Murray would play in the NHL again. A one-year contract offered him a lifeline to continue grinding far out of the spotlight in the AHL, with only one goal.

And over a year and a half later, Murray was back to where he had fought to be: in the NHL win column after stopping 24 shots in a 6-3 win over the Buffalo Sabres.

“A long road. A big mountain to climb. But I kept this moment in the front of my mind on the days it felt tough,” Murray said.

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The 30-year-old’s eyes grew more red with every word he spoke after the game. His voice quivered.

“A big release,” he said, struggling to find the words to put nearly two years away from the NHL into perspective. “A rush of emotions.”

The typical goalie hugs with teammates after the win were tighter, longer. In a physical game where a player’s career can turn on a dime, Murray’s return resonated far more heavily than the 2 points the Leafs also added on the day.

“It’s good to see (Murray) smiling,” Steven Lorentz said, “because you know he’s back doing what he loves.”

In the dressing room, Max Domi immediately handed Murray the team’s WWE-style wrestling belt as player of the game. Murray’s up-and-down performance was secondary.

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“He was getting that thing, 100 percent, he deserved it,” Domi said. “The ability to stick with it mentally, out of all those days that I’m sure he had a lot of doubt, it’s a long road to recovery. We’re all super proud of him.”

It’s easy to quantify just how long Murray’s road back to the NHL was in days: 628 of them between his last two appearances.

It’s far more difficult to accurately describe just how arduous that road is.

Injuries have dogged Murray throughout his career after winning back-to-back Stanley Cup titles in his first two seasons in the NHL with the Pittsburgh Penguins. His games played tapered off every season from 2018 to 2022. After he was traded to the Leafs in summer 2022, he struggled through his first season. It was fair to wonder whether hip surgery would be the final dagger in his NHL career.

But Murray would still hang around teammates at the Leafs’ practice facility during his rehabilitation last season, feeling so close but so far away from the league he once conquered.

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“The fact that he’s just on his way back here says a lot about his character, his dedication to the game,” Lorentz said.

Murray kept a stall full of his gear at that facility that was never used. An important and humane gesture from the Leafs organization, but still a reminder that Murray was not playing NHL games.

Even after re-signing with the Leafs on a one-year, $875,000 deal, he felt like the organization’s No. 4 goalie. When the Leafs needed a netminder to replace the injured Anthony Stolarz, they called up Dennis Hildeby. The lanky Hildeby is seven years’ Murray’s junior.

How could Murray not wonder whether his NHL return would ever come?

“There were definitely times when it felt really difficult,” Murray said. “But whenever I felt like that, I had a great group of people around me. That’s the only reason why I’m here.”

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All Murray could do was work his tail off, far away from public sight, quietly hoping for the return that finally came Friday night.

“The emotions were high today,” Murray said.

Those emotions perhaps ran highest before the game. The typically stoic Murray allowed himself to stop and appreciate how far he’s come.

“I was able to take a moment in warmups and during the anthem and look around and appreciate the long journey that it’s been and think of all the people who helped me get here,” Murray said.

It was the kind of game that reminded onlookers of the fragility of an NHL career. Just a few short years separated Murray from being a Stanley Cup winner to being largely written off from the NHL, all essentially before the age of 30.

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“You feel for a guy like that because he works so hard and he wants it so bad,” Lorentz said. “We’re all rooting for him.”


Matt Murray saved 24 shots in a 6-3 win over the Sabres, earning his first NHL win in 638 days. (Timothy T. Ludwig / Imagn Images)

Murray moved well enough in his return. He swallowed most of the 27 shots the Sabres threw at him, looking every bit the veteran he is. Murray had two goals against called back upon video review. His sprawling save on Sabres forward Alex Tuch was a reminder of the athleticism he can provide now that he’s fully healthy, too.

They’re all qualities Leafs fans might have forgotten. But they’re qualities that are still front of mind for Murray’s Leafs teammates.

“It hasn’t been forgotten in my mind what he’s accomplished in this league in his career,” Leafs forward Max Pacioretty said, himself no stranger to debilitating injuries that threaten a career. “It’s hard to almost remember what you’ve done, what you’ve accomplished because it seems like all the noise is always in the moment, whether it’s the injury or what has happened lately.”

Perhaps the Leafs win could have been predicted ahead of time. Sure, they were playing a reeling Sabres team that has now sputtered through 12 losses in a row. And they were buoyed by an upstart, white-hot line of Max Domi, Bobby McMann and Nick Robertson. They’re the third line in name only: The trio combined for three goals and 6 points against the Sabres.

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But the opponent shouldn’t denigrate what was front of mind not just for Murray but also for the Leafs in Buffalo. They wanted to do right by a player who has done everything in his power to return to the NHL. You didn’t have to squint to see a defenceman like Jake McCabe throwing Sabres out of Murray’s crease with a little extra gusto.

“It gives you some incentive to go the extra mile because you know (Murray) has gone that extra mile just to get back to this position to where he’s at right,” Lorentz said. “It’s not like he half-assed it to get back to this point and he expected to be here. Surgeries and injuries like that, that he went through, that can stunt your career for a long time. You might never be able to recover to your old form.”

But Murray is working on getting back to the Matt Murray of old. And the Leafs’ need for Murray won’t end when they head north on the QEW back to Toronto.

The earliest Stolarz will likely return from a knee injury will be mid-to-late January. Hildeby doesn’t exactly have the full confidence of the Leafs organization right now after allowing a few soft goals during a recent call-up against the Sabres at home, combined with a less-than-stellar AHL season so far. He’s likely going to be an NHL player down the road, but there’s room for him to grow and develop more confidence in his game.

But Murray has what no other goalie in the Leafs organization has: experience. And that matters to Brad Treliving and Craig Berube: Both value games played and would rather lean on veterans whenever possible.

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They’ll lean on Murray because of everything he’s done, and gone through, in his career.

After Friday night, that career looks drastically different.

“In reality, you’ve got to take each day as it comes and you never know when it’s going to be all over,” Pacioretty said. “So you don’t want to take days for granted.”

After Murray had dried his eyes and slowly taken off the pounds of goalie gear heavy with sweat, he sat on his own in the dressing room. The Leafs equipment staff all stopped unloading bags from the dressing room to give him a quiet pat on the back.

Murray looked up to see a note written on a whiteboard in the dressing room. The Leafs bus would be leaving in 20 minutes. There was another NHL game on the horizon.

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He could smile once again knowing it certainly won’t be 628 days between being able to do what he loved.

(Top photo: Timothy T. Ludwig / Imagn Images)

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How Merseyside became America’s 51st state

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How Merseyside became America’s 51st state

Beyond the dust of Liverpool’s dock road and the huge lorries rolling in and out of the city’s port, the glass panels of Everton’s new home at the Bramley-Moore Dock sparkle impressively, radiating ambition.

The site, expected to open next year, is a feat of engineering considering the narrow dimensions of the fresh land below it, where old waters have been drained to create a 52,888-capacity arena that has been earmarked to host matches at the 2028 European Championship.

The Everton Stadium, as it is currently known, has been nearly 30 years in the making and nothing about its construction has been straightforward. There were three other proposed sites — including one outside Liverpool’s city boundaries, in Kirkby — which never materialised; a sponsorship deal collapsing due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; three owners, Peter Johnson, Bill Kenwright and Farhad Moshiri, departing; and several flirtations with relegation. 

Ultimately, Dan Friedkin, a Texan-based billionaire, will have the honour of being in post when it is inaugurated after his group’s long-awaited takeover was completed on Thursday.


Everton’s new waterfront home (Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)

It has been a momentous week for Everton, and for the region as a whole. The Friedkin Group’s takeover means both of Merseyside’s Premier League clubs are now controlled by Americans. Meanwhile, a third, League Two side Tranmere Rovers, could join them if the English Football League (EFL) ratifies a takeover by a consortium led by Donald Trump’s former lawyer Joe Tacopina.

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In football terms, Liverpool is on the verge of becoming the USA’s 51st state — the name of the 2001 movie starring Samuel L Jackson and Robert Carlyle, which was filmed in the city and used Anfield, the home of Liverpool FC, as a backdrop.

It is a huge cultural shift from the days — back when that film was released — when Liverpool and Everton had local owners and an American takeover of the city’s most celebrated sporting organisations seemed unthinkable. 

And for all the excitement that Everton and Tranmere’s takeovers have generated, there remains an underlying caution — born of years of fear and frustration over the direction their clubs have taken — over what U.S. ownership will mean.

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Everton is a club of contrasts. 

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Much of their mainly local support comes from some of the United Kingdom’s most economically challenged districts in the north end of Liverpool, near Walton where Goodison Park is located, and the ‘People’s Club’ — as former manager David Moyes christened them — has long taken pride in not being connected to big business, particularly in comparison to their near-neighbours Liverpool.

“One Evertonian is worth twenty Liverpudlians,” said former local captain Brian Labone, who led the team he supported as a boy in the 1960s.

Yet it hasn’t always been this way. At that time, it was Everton — not Liverpool — who were the city’s big spenders under their chairman John Moores, the founder of Littlewoods Pools. Then, their nickname was the ‘Mersey Millionaires’ and the club’s modus operandi was unapologetically ruthless: one manager, Johnny Carey, was sacked in the back of a taxi.

Moores would detail several innovations that would grow the sport, making it more attractive to business. They included the creation of a European Super League (sound familiar?), the rise of television, as well as the removal of the maximum wage, leaving a free market in which the best players would go to the richest clubs.

When Liverpool started to dominate English football and Goodison Park experienced a dip in gates, Moores tried to raise more cash. One of his solutions was to bring corporate hospitality to Goodison, as well as more advertising boards around the pitch but the move experienced pushback.

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“Fans didn’t like it,” says Gavin Buckland, who recently published a book entitled The End, which looks at some of the longer-term causes of Everton’s struggles. “They felt the boards intruded on their match day routine — an in-your-face commercialism.”

Attitudes haven’t changed much since, in part because successive Everton owners haven’t been able to expand Goodison which is hemmed into Walton’s warren of terraced streets. Under Kenwright, Everton played on that reputation of the plucky underdog punching above its weight; it was only when Moshiri, a Monaco-based British-Iranian steel magnate, arrived as co-owner in 2016 that the waters were muddied. 


Goodison Park – with Anfield visible at the top of the picture – is sandwiched into terraced streets (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Under Moshiri, Everton became two clubs in one. Like Kenwright, Moshiri operated from London but unlike the theatre impresario, he had no natural connection with Merseyside. While Moshiri aimed for the stars, spending big on players and managers, Kenwright — who remained chairman and still had influence until his death last year — had a more corner-shop mentality. There was a lack of clarity over decision-making.

Enter Friedkin. Perversely, Everton’s fallen state is a major reason they represent such an attractive proposition to the San Diego-born businessman, who identified them as one of, if not the last, purchasable English football club where there is room for significant growth.

On Merseyside, there is some concern about what this might mean: Americans have tended to develop dubious reputations as owners of English football clubs due to their appetite for driving non-football revenues and seeing their investments as content providers. 

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Will the new stadium, for example, become a shopping mall experience, complete with hiked-up ticket prices? Buckland speaks of a “cliff edge”, where Everton are moving into a new home, necessitating new routines for matchgoing fans, while a new foreign owner with a reputation for keeping his distance gets his feet under the table. For some, all of this at once might be too much.

Given that Friedkin cannot claim to have played a leading role in the stadium move, he is likely to be judged quickly on the team that he delivers. Any new revenue-driving schemes will only float if fortunes improve on the pitch, otherwise his priorities will be questioned.

For proof, simply look across Stanley Park. In 2016, thousands of Liverpool fans walked out of Anfield in the 77th minute of a Premier League game against Sunderland after FSG announced that some ticket prices in the stadium’s new Main Stand would be priced at £77. 

Liverpool had won just one trophy in six years of FSG ownership at that point and local fans, especially, felt like their loyalty was being exploited, given the organisation’s policy of investing its own money in infrastructure but not the team. The protest led to an embarrassing climbdown.

Liverpool was once described by the Guardian newspaper as the “Bermuda Triangle of capitalism”. It has since been framed absolutely as a left-wing city even though voting patterns suggest it should be described as a dissenting one. Its football supporters, whether blue or red, tend to confront perceived injustices, especially if it involves outsiders making money at the expense of locals, and even more so if they are not delivering on the pitch.

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Liverpool have retained their working-class feel (Simon Hughes/The Athletic)

FSG were only able to buy Liverpool at a knockdown price, which its former American owner Tom Hicks described as an “epic swindle”, due to the response of the supporters who unionised themselves in an attempt to drive both Hicks and his partner George Gillett out following a series of broken promises, as the club veered dangerously towards deep financial problems from 2008.

“The missteps of Hicks and Gillett put power in the hands of the fans,” reminds Gareth Roberts from Spirit of Shankly, the fans group which is still active 16 years after its formation and which now has members on the club’s official supporters board. The latter became enshrined in Liverpool’s articles of association after FSG apologised for its leading role in the attempt to create a European Super League in 2021. 

This came after several other high-profile PR blunders that eroded trust. It remains to be seen whether figures like John W. Henry, FSG and Liverpool’s principle owner, will listen to the board rather than pay lip service and carry on regardless with his own plans. Roberts says the ongoing challenge is “getting them to understand the culture”, and it does not help the relationship when Henry’s business partner, Tom Werner (Liverpool’s chairman), speaks so enthusiastically about taking Premier League fixtures away from Anfield and potentially hosting them in other parts of the world.

There was a time when either Everton or Liverpool’s local owner not showing at a match would dominate conversations in pubs and get reported in the local paper. Now, that only happens if they actually turn up.

Leading FSG figures usually fly in from Boston, Massachusetts, attending a couple of games a season — Werner was at Liverpool’s recent game against Real Madrid, while Henry was in the stands for the first home game of the season against Brentford. They appoint executives and dispatch them to Merseyside, or London, where the club has long had an office, to run the business on their behalf. Such individuals are under pressure to drive revenues as far as they can, in theory improving the economic possibilities of the team.

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John W. Henry visits Anfield for the Brentford game in August (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Roberts says ticketing is an especially thorny issue at Liverpool due to the popularity of the club. It feels like locals are under attack: that there is a race to get the richest person’s bum onto a seat.

As far as Roberts is concerned, a club that markets its image from the energy that Anfield occasionally creates is treading on dangerous ground. “The Kop still has power,” he insists. “But if you squeeze the fans and they drop off, there is a risk that the place gets filled with spectators rather than supporters and with that, you kill the golden goose.”

This, he adds, should act as a warning to Evertonians as they embark on their own American adventure. 

Like Roberts, Liverpool metro mayor Steve Rotheram is a season ticket holder at Anfield and he understands such anxieties. In October, he spent a fortnight in North America exploring trade opportunities and the experience made him realise how powerful a brand Liverpool has abroad due to its connections with football and music, as well as its central role as a port in the movement of the Irish diaspora that spread across the Atlantic in the 19th century.

He says such history helps start conversations with American businesses from sectors like bioscience and digital innovation, which are now interested in investing in Merseyside due to the availability of land near the waterfront on both sides of the Mersey river, a hangover from the harsh economic measures of the 1980s and the decline that followed. 

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Rotheram says football, especially, plays a significant role in the visitor economy to the region, which in 2018 was worth £6.2billion. A thriving Everton playing at a stadium that does a lot more than host football matches every fortnight has the potential to add to that pot. The site at Bramley-Moore promises to regenerate the area around it and, currently, there are small signs of that change. Now Everton’s immediate financial concerns have gone away, perhaps businesses hoping to move in can proceed with more confidence.

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To reach the third professional football club on Merseyside attracting American investment, you have to cross the river.

If Rotheram gets his way, a walkable bridge will connect Liverpool to Wirral, the home of Tranmere Rovers, and potentially boost the peninsula’s economy. But for the time being, there are just two transport options: a tunnel under the Mersey or, more pleasurably, a ferry which takes less than seven minutes to sail from the Pier Head, beneath the famous Liver Buildings, to Seacombe.

In the middle of this journey, as the ferry juts north, there is a different view of Everton’s new stadium, positioned between a scrapyard and a wind farm, both of which are in the shadow of a brooding tobacco warehouse that is the biggest brick building in the world. Everton’s new home is much closer to the city and might seem enormous from the land, glistening from whichever angle you look at it, but it does not dominate the skyline from the brown, scudding channels of the Mersey.

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Everton’s new stadium, as viewed from Birkenhead across the Mersey (Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

When the novelist Nathaniel Hawthorne sailed across the same stretch of water in 1854, he recalled a scene that he thought neatly captured the personality of the Liverpudlians he’d encountered over the previous six months, having been sent to the city as American consul.

There, on the ferry, was a labourer eating oysters using a jack knife taken from his pocket, tossing shell after shell overboard. Once satisfied, the labourer pulled out a clay pipe and started puffing away contentedly. 

According to Hawthorne, the labourer’s “perfect coolness and independence” was mirrored by some of the other passengers. “Here,” Hawthorne wrote, “a man does not seem to consider what other people will think of his conduct but whether it suits his convenience to do so.”

Hawthorne did not specify whether the labourer was from Liverpool or the piece of land to the west now known as Wirral. To any outsider, the places and their residents tend to be viewed as one of the same.

On Merseyside, however, distinctions are made: Liverpudlians tend to identify themselves as tougher and sharper, while those from “over the water”, tend to have softer accents and are once removed from the struggles of the city.

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In truth, both areas suffered in the late 1970s and 80s when unemployment ripped through its docks and shipyards. Whereas Liverpool’s city centre has been transformed in the decades since, the Wirral’s waterfront feels less promising. Whereas Liverpool has the Albert Dock, museums and a business district punctuated by glassy high rises, Wirral has very few distinguishable features from the river beyond its scaly, grey sea wall.

Three miles or so from the terminal in Seacombe lies Prenton, the home of Tranmere, a football club that returned to the Football League in 2018, having fallen on hard times since the early 1990s when it threatened to reach the Premier League.


Tranmere’s homely but ageing Prenton Park ground (Simon Hughes/The Athletic)

That history is one of the reasons why an American consortium led by Tacopina has an application with the EFL to try and buy the club from former player, Mark Palios, who later acted as the chief executive of the English Football Association.

The Athletic reported in September that Tacopina was attempting to “harness the power of his celebrity contacts” to try to propel Tranmere up the divisions from League Two. In a report the following month, it was revealed on these pages that rapper A$AP Rocky and Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby were two of the investors.

According to a source involved in the deal, who would like to remain anonymous to protect working relationships, there is a belief the takeover will be completed in early 2025. While the source suggests it has taken longer than expected to reach this point after an unnamed investor dropped out, The Athletic has been told separately that an unnamed investor’s application was rejected by the EFL. This led to the buying group trying to source a replacement. The EFL declined to comment.

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Tacopina has been involved in Italian football for a decade, with mixed success. He knows Tranmere is not a sexy name but neither was Wrexham before they were taken over by the Hollywood actors Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney in 2021. While Tranmere has a fight this season to retain its Football League status, Tacopina would be taking on a club that more or less breaks even. 

Palios is naturally cautious. For years, he’s wanted to find a minority partner but interested parties have tended to find there isn’t much up-side for such investment. Palios has since been able to convince Tacopina that Tranmere has significant potential with a full takeover, that the club has geography on its side and could become the region’s third wheel.


Joe Tacopina, sat next to former U.S. President Donald Trump, wants to buy Tranmere (Andrew Kelly-Pool/Getty Images)

More than 500,000 people live on the Wirral but the majority cannot get tickets for Liverpool or Everton. There is an interest in Tranmere but many Wirral residents are only would-be fans. That would surely change with an upwardly mobile team, as Tranmere were in the 1990s when it tried to reach the top flight and a packed Prenton Park witnessed a series of exciting cup runs.

Tranmere is worth around £20million in assets. Even if the club reached the Championship, the gateway to the Premier League, the value would increase significantly, potentially leaving Tacopina with a profit if he decided to sell. Importantly, the stadium is owned by the club and Tacopina would be inheriting that. Tacopina takes confidence from the stories of clubs like Bournemouth and Brentford, who are now established in the Premier League despite playing in similar-sized stadiums to Prenton Park (Bournemouth’s is actually considerably smaller) and with little history of success at the top level. 

Prenton Park, however, does not have the facilities to generate much revenue outside of matchdays. In the boom of the early 90s, the venue was rebuilt on three sides but that did not include the main stand, which remains a relic of corrugated iron and brick. Lorraine Rogers, the chairperson before Palios, suggested the stand was costing Tranmere £500,000 a year to maintain. In 2021, a League Two game with Stevenage was postponed after a part of the roof flew off during a storm.

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Palios has explored other stadium options. From the Mersey, the West float slipway leads to Bidston, where a site has been discussed but diehard fans are not enthusiastic about a move three miles away which would take the club away from its roots and potentially position it next to a waste plant, and where there are few pubs and transport links are limited.

Last summer, Palios suggested the zone was ripe for redevelopment in an interview with Liverpool Business News. “I advise my children, if ever they invest in property, invest in the south bank of the river,” he said. “As sure as apples fall from trees, this place is going to get developed.”

Any relocation, however, would need assistance from Wirral Waters as well as a council that for a decade has carefully been trying to manage its budgets due to cuts from central government. At the start of December, the Liverpool Echo reported that the council will be asking the government for a £20million bailout to prevent it from having to declare bankruptcy. 


Tranmere’s ground rises out of the streets in Birkenhead (Lewis Storey/Getty Images)

While it is generally accepted the Palios era is near an end and Tranmere needs to find a way to move forward, there is a wariness and some Tranmere supporters are questioning whether they want someone who has represented Trump in a rape trial running their club. 

Matt Jones, the presenter of the Trip to the Moon podcast, speaks of “excitement, curiosity and fear”. Two years ago, he tracked down Bruce Osterman, Tranmere’s previous American owner (and the first in English football), to San Francisco.

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Osterman told Jones that in 1984, he was able to complete a takeover because Tranmere were “days away from shutting its doors”. Yet Osterman was humble enough to admit that he was ill-prepared for the challenges that followed, despite investing £500,000 in cash. “I didn’t know what the hell I was doing,” he admitted. “I had no experience in this area. I was a trial lawyer… I had no understanding of the history, or where we were going.”

Osterman says that if he had his time again, he “would probably have paid more attention to the team’s relationship with the community”. Over the next three and a half years, Tranmere’s financial position became bleaker and he ended up selling the club at a loss to Palios’ predecessor Peter Johnson, the son of a butcher who became a millionaire businessman in the food industry.

Johnson ended up buying Everton where he was much less popular. His story is a reminder that it is not just American owners who move around clubs, as Friedkin has. Johnson grew up a Liverpool fan, an inconvenient factoid which put him on the back foot at Goodison, where he encountered suspicious minds and hardened attitudes.


Cynicism is deeply embedded among Everton fans, who might wonder how long it will take for their club to see the benefits of being at a new stadium and under new ownership.

Yet Friedkin’s arrival potentially draws a line under much of the uncertainty. Simon Hart, a journalist and author who has written extensively about the club, speaks about the last few years being battered by “existential concerns relating to the club’s future to the extent you are largely numb, hoping just to survive. The impression that Friedkin seems reasonably sensible and hasn’t destroyed Roma is something to grasp and be grateful for.

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“At the moment, the thing that needs answering is whether Everton can go into the new stadium as a Premier League club that is secure. There is a sense that anything that keeps the club alive is acceptable.”

Excitement is not the right word but relief might be. Hart thinks Goodison is irreplaceable, a venue where the terraces hang over the pitch and some of the timberwork dates back to the Victorian era. It is as much a part of the club’s identity as the Liver Buildings are to Liverpool. A departure inspires mixed emotions that swirl around the freezing reality that Everton has not won a trophy of any kind since 1995. 

As the years pass and the record extends, it becomes harder to escape. Hart describes Goodison as his “special place”, but it feels like “disappointment is soaked into every brick now”. He attended the 0-0 draw with Brentford in November when the visiting team were down to 10 men and it felt as though Goodison was weighed down by negative emotion.

Perhaps their new home allows the club to embrace a fresh start and, as he puts it, “allow Evertonians to look forward rather than back.”

(Top image: Getty Images/Design: Eamonn Dalton)

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Notre Dame rolls past Indiana in College Football Playoff opening game: What’s next?

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Notre Dame rolls past Indiana in College Football Playoff opening game: What’s next?

By Pete Sampson, Joe Rexrode and Seth Emerson

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — No. 7 Notre Dame cruised past No. 10 Indiana 27-17 in the first game of the 12-team College Football Playoff on Friday night. The Fighting Irish advance to play No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.

Two interceptions in the first three drives and a 98-yard touchdown run by Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love got the first on-campus Playoff game off to a dramatic start. But the fireworks fizzled from there, particularly for the Hoosiers, until they finally reached the end zone twice in the final two minutes to shrink the margin of defeat. Still, Indiana was held to its second-lowest scoring output of the season and was held to 278 yards of offense to Notre Dame’s 394. Indiana gained just 63 yards rushing to Notre Dame’s 193.

Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard went 22-for-32 with 201 yards and one touchdown with another 30 yards and a score on the ground. But it was the effort of Notre Dame’s defense to stop Indiana’s usually high-powered offense that set this one apart.

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There aren’t a lot of firsts at Notre Dame. This was one of them

The Athletic’s analysis:

Notre Dame’s defense dominates

Notre Dame opened the season asking its defense to carry it, which it did just about every week through Thanksgiving. The Irish asked their defense to do the same to open the postseason. Again, it answered the bell, holding Indiana to 17 points as the Hoosiers barely threatened the goal line short of a first-quarter drive that ended with a Xavier Watts interception.

It was a near-perfect game plan from defensive coordinator Al Golden, who turned up the pressure on Kurtis Rourke early and never let the Indiana quarterback get comfortable. Notre Dame’s defensive line had a lot to do with that, as the return of Howard Cross from an ankle sprain overwhelmed Indiana’s offensive line. Even though the Irish lost defensive tackle Rylie Mills and defensive end Bryce Young during the game due to injury, it didn’t matter much.

Indiana, the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense during the regular season at 43.3 points per game, had no chance.

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The performance put to bed Notre Dame’s struggles at USC three weeks ago when the Irish were picked apart through the air until ending the game with back-to-back pick sixes. The performance was enough to wonder if Notre Dame had finally been stretched too thin, relying on underclassmen in the secondary with a pass rush losing steam.

Not exactly.

Indiana barely took shots against Notre Dame.

The Irish will be tested at a new level against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and the growing injury list will be a concern. But in the final home game of the season, Notre Dame put another performance on tape to suggest it has a national championship-level defense. — Sampson

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Indiana had an incredible season, but Ohio State and Notre Dame pulled off the mask

Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers don’t need to apologize for making the College Football Playoff with an 11-1 record. The CFP committee doesn’t have to apologize, either. Indiana played dominant football for most of the season, against a schedule that looked much more difficult than it ended up being. But Notre Dame’s romp in tandem with the Hoosiers’ 38-15 loss at Ohio State combine to tell the story of a team that couldn’t hang up front against supremely talented defenses. Michigan exposed that offensive line a bit in its loss at Indiana as well. Kurtis Rourke had little time to throw and missed some he needed to make on the rare occasions he was able to scan the field.

It was a historic, spectacular debut season for Cignetti. It ended with a reminder that a program with this history producing a true national title contender in one year simply isn’t realistic. — Rexrode

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What’s next? Georgia in the Sugar Bowl

Kirby Smart noticed what Notre Dame fans were yelling while the Georgia coach appeared on ESPN’s “College GameDay” on Friday afternoon: “We want Georgia! We want Georgia!”

“They gotta win this one first,” Smart replied, smiling, amid the booing.

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Notre Dame won, setting up a marquee matchup that harkens to Georgia history, and Smart’s tenure.

It’s a redux of the 1981 Sugar Bowl, when Georgia won its second-ever national title. Then in 2017, it was at Notre Dame where Smart launched his program with a one-point win, on its way to an unexpected run to the national championship game. Georgia won the rematch in Athens two years later, though it was also close.

That was when Brian Kelly was the coach. Georgia is still essentially the same talent-laden, physical SEC program, just with a more modern passing offense. The question is how far Marcus Freeman has taken a Notre Dame program that has wilted in the postseason before.

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The Fighting Irish are a physical team. The Bulldogs haven’t had their usual dominance in the trenches but much of that was because of injuries, and now they’re as healthy as they’ve been all year.

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Georgia’s defense is predicated on stopping the run and taking its chances against the pass. But it’s been susceptible to edge runs this year, so one has to imagine the cringe Smart felt watching Love go 98 yards down the left sideline. Love probably won’t outrun Georgia’s defensive backs like that, but he could get a lot of chunk plays on the outside. Georgia has also been susceptible to dual-threat quarterbacks, so Leonard’s feet could be a headache.

Then again, so could new Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton in his first college start. Stockton vs. Notre Dame’s solid secondary will also be interesting. Georgia does figure to have much better skill position players than Indiana, especially with tailbacks Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier.

All in all, it’s a hard game to predict. During Smart’s appearance, ESPN’s Rece Davis pointed out that Notre Dame has never beaten Georgia. That’s true, but all three games have been decided by one possession. No one should be surprised if the fourth matchup is just as close. — Emerson

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(Photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

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