Crypto
The economics of Bitcoin halving: Understanding the effects on price and market sentiment
![The economics of Bitcoin halving: Understanding the effects on price and market sentiment](https://images.cointelegraph.com/images/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjMtMDcvN2JlNjZlZGMtNmNiNC00NGVlLWIwZjEtOTc5MDVmN2E1MjE5LmpwZw==.jpg)
Bitcoin (BTC), the pioneering cryptocurrency that sparked a global revolution in digital assets, operates on a unique monetary policy. One of the defining features of Bitcoin is its halving event, which occurs approximately every four years.
This article will explore the economics behind Bitcoin’s halving, examining its effects on price movements and market sentiment. By understanding these factors, investors and enthusiasts can gain valuable insights into the cryptocurrency’s market behavior.
Related: How does the monetary supply affect cryptocurrencies?
What is a Bitcoin halving?
A Bitcoin halving, also known as a “halvening,” refers to the predetermined reduction in the rate at which new BTC are created. It is programmed into the Bitcoin protocol and occurs every 210,000 blocks, which is roughly every four years. The halving event halves the block reward, reducing the number of newly minted Bitcoin awarded to miners.
Supply and demand dynamics
A Bitcoin halving directly impacts the supply and demand dynamics of the cryptocurrency. By reducing the rate at which new BTC enters the market, halving effectively reduces the available supply. As the supply decreases, assuming demand remains constant or increases, basic economic principles suggest that the price of Bitcoin should rise.
Supply and demand is the basic economic principle supporting a price increase in response to Bitcoin’s halving. The law of supply and demand states that prices tend to increase when a commodity’s supply declines, and demand either stays the same or rises. The Bitcoin halving slows the rate of new Bitcoin creation and market release.
As a result, there are fewer newly created BTC available for purchase. The diminished supply produces a scarcity effect, which might push the price upward if demand for Bitcoin stays the same or rises.
Bitcoin’s controlled supply is a key factor contributing to its value proposition. The total supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million coins, and the halving mechanism gradually reduces the rate at which new BTC are produced until the maximum supply is reached. This scarcity aspect, coupled with the increasing recognition and adoption of Bitcoin, can create a perception of limited availability and drive up demand, thereby impacting the price.
Historical price movements
Halving events have frequently been associated with increases in the price of Bitcoin, with significant upward momentum both before and after previous halvings. For example, during the 2012 halving, Bitcoin’s price soared from about $12 to over $200 in just one year. Similarly, Bitcoin experienced a stunning recovery after its 2016 price halving, reaching a high of about $19,700 in December 2017.
Following the most recent halving event in May 2020, Bitcoin’s price surged. Starting at $8,787 during the halving, the cryptocurrency experienced a remarkable rally, eventually reaching its all-time high of nearly $69,000 in November 2021.
Market attitude and investor perception
Bitcoin halving events often generate increased market attention and hype. Expectations of lower supply and likely price increases may fuel positive feelings among investors and traders. This optimism could result in higher demand for Bitcoin as traders try to profit from the expected price gain. As a result, a Bitcoin halving can result in the self-fulfilling prophecy of rising market sentiment and demand.
It is crucial to remember that during halving occurrences, market sentiment isn’t always favorable. Market participants may also experience FUD around the potential effects of a price halving. Short-term price swings and heightened volatility may result from this conflicting sentiment.
Impact on mining economics
The Bitcoin halving event may also impact mining economics. Block rewards and transaction fees are the primary sources of income for miners, which are essential to confirming transactions and safeguarding the Bitcoin network.
The decrease in block rewards caused by a halving event directly affects miner profitability. After a halving event, miners operating with increased expenses might find it less profitable to mine Bitcoin, which could result in a drop in mining activity.
Related: ‘Don’t short when it’s dark green’: How to trade the 2024 Bitcoin halving
Network security and long-term outlook
Bitcoin’s halving may initially impact mining economics, but it also plays a critical role in preserving the network’s long-term security and stability. Miners are encouraged to continue their activities and secure the network through transaction validation due to the carefully managed decline in block rewards.
The network becomes more robust and less dependent on freshly created currencies for security as the mining industry adapts to the decreased block rewards.
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Crypto
Massive Sell-Off: Mt. Gox Bitcoin Payout Fears Wipes Out $170 Billion From Crypto Market
![Massive Sell-Off: Mt. Gox Bitcoin Payout Fears Wipes Out $170 Billion From Crypto Market](https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Screenshot_263.jpg?fit=1319%2C740)
The cryptocurrency market experienced a substantial downturn on Friday, compounding the selling pressure witnessed over the past two weeks. The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), retraced over 20% from its highs in June and May, dropping as low as $53,500.
The market decline was largely attributed to the long-awaited trustee overseeing the Mt. Gox bankruptcy, who announced the commencement of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash repayments to creditors affected by the infamous hack that resulted in billions in losses.
As a result, the entire cryptocurrency market shed over $170 billion in combined market capitalization in just 24 hours.
Bitcoin Repayments And German Government Sell-Off
The trustee responsible for the Mt. Gox bankruptcy estate, Nobuaki Kobayashi, stated that Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash repayments had begun through designated crypto exchanges.
While the amount transferred to these exchanges was not specified, data from market intelligence platform Arkham revealed that 47,229 BTC, valued at $2.71 billion, had been transferred to an unknown address.
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Kobayashi emphasized that the remaining funds would be returned to creditors once “specific conditions” were met, including verifying registered accounts and finalizing discussions with the designated exchanges.
The decline in crypto prices led to substantial liquidations in the derivatives markets, with over 229,755 traders experiencing combined liquidations worth $639.58 million in the past 24 hours. Of this amount, $540.46 million represented long trades, indicating positions taken by investors expecting long-term asset appreciation.
Additionally, the German government contributed to the market pressure by selling approximately 3,000 BTC, equivalent to around $175 million, from a seized stash of 50,000 BTC associated with the movie piracy operation Movie2k. Despite the sell-off, the government still holds over 40,000 BTC, valued at over $2 billion.
What Historical Price Cycles Suggest
Despite the ongoing bloodbath witnessed in crypto prices over the past month, industry insiders and analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s future performance.
Despite the short-term selling pressure resulting from Mt. Gox repayments, experts anticipate a rebound towards the end of the year. Crypto data and research firm CCData suggested that Bitcoin’s current appreciation cycle has not yet peaked and will likely achieve a new all-time high.
Historical market cycles indicate that Bitcoin’s Halving event, which reduces the supply of new BTC, typically precedes a period of price expansion between 12 and 18 months. The most recent Halving occurred in April, suggesting potential further growth into 2025.
Related Reading
Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, told CNBC that he predicts that Bitcoin will hit $150,000 despite the Mt. Gox overhang.
The launch of an Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US and the approval of the first US spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this year contribute to the overall positive sentiment in the market, indicating potential growth and further mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $55,680, reflecting a significant 21% drop in price over the past month. Bulls in the market are closely monitoring the $54,480 price level, representing substantial support for BTC. This level holds critical importance as it could prevent further price declines and the risk of breaking below the crucial $50,000 level.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto
GTA VI may use cryptocurrency as payment methods, here’s what you should know
![GTA VI may use cryptocurrency as payment methods, here’s what you should know](https://img.etimg.com/thumb/msid-111522755,width-1200,height-630,imgsize-10392,overlay-economictimes/photo.jpg)
No official statement by Rockstar Games around cryptocurrency use yet
Meanwhile, reports suggest that Rockstar Games may allow the use of cryptocurrencies for in-game purchases in GTA VI. This has been revealed through a leak that along with card and banking options, a few select cryptocurrencies would also be allowed as a payment method in the game. However, there is no official confirmation by the makers, Rockstar Games, around this latest rumor.
Also Read: Destroying the White House; one among the many activities in this North Korean summer camp
Will cryptocurrencies be a payment option in GTA VI?
In case GTA VI does allow cryptocurrency transaction for it sin-game purchases, the most common cryptos it will support may include Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and a few others. However, there is also an alternative theory to this, with some reports suggesting that players will get awarded with an in-game cryptocurrency called $RSTAR, when they successfully complete missions. Rumor has it that these currency can be used for purchasing various in-game utilities, as well as trade it with players in your circles. However, yet again, Rockstar Games is entirely mum around these new rumored features of GTA VI.
Is using cryptocurrency in GTA VI safe?
Using an in-game cryptocurrency, may not be a very unsafe option, provided that the players do not get defrauded through various scammers who have nowadays, started hunting for victims in games as well.
FAQs:
Has GTA VI been released?
No, GTA VI has not been released yet but it may be out by the year 2025, according to reports. The last GTA game available is GTA V.
Is GTA V playable on Sony PS5?
Yes, Sony PlayStation 5 indeed supports Grand Theft Auto V, the last released game in this franchise. PS5 also supports its previous version, GTA IV too.
Disclaimer Statement: This content is authored by a 3rd party. The views expressed here are that of the respective authors/ entities and do not represent the views of Economic Times (ET). ET does not guarantee, vouch for or endorse any of its contents nor is responsible for them in any manner whatsoever. Please take all steps necessary to ascertain that any information and content provided is correct, updated, and verified. ET hereby disclaims any and all warranties, express or implied, relating to the report and any content therein.
Crypto
Visa and Tangem Unveil Combined Payment Card-Crypto Wallet
![Visa and Tangem Unveil Combined Payment Card-Crypto Wallet](https://www.pymnts.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Visa-Tangem-crypto.png)
Switzerland-based cryptocurrency wallet maker Tangem AG has launched a payments partnership with Visa.
The collaboration, announced Friday (July 5), has resulted in a Visa payments card combined with a hardware wallet that lets Tangem users make payments using their crypto or stablecoin balances at merchants that accept Visa.
“We are delighted that Visa has chosen to partner with Tangem, one of the most reliable and secure solutions for personal cryptocurrency storage,” Andrey Kurennykh, co-founder and CEO of Tangem, said in a news release.
“Our users will get a two-in-one solution — the convenience of a regular bank card and the capabilities of a self-custodial crypto wallet, all in one card.”
Kurennykh added that the partnership will go a long way toward “bridging the gap between traditional banking and digital assets, making it easier for everyday users to navigate and leverage the benefits of both worlds.”
According to the release, the new solution differs from traditional custodial solutions, which rely on third-party entities to handle user funds. In this case, Tangem’s card embeds a private key within the chip and requires the physical card’s use for every transaction, making sure users are always in control of their assets.
The partnership is happening a moment when, as PYMNTS wrote earlier this week, the cryptocurrency and blockchain sector finds itself at a crucial juncture.
“It is the same critical juncture, or at least one strikingly similar, that the crypto and digital asset sector has always found itself at — a juncture where regulatory developments, interoperability and scalability, and institutional acceptance are at the forefront,” that report said.
The reason? Regulations, usability and acceptance are the three themes and trends observers believe will mold the future of Web3, a future that’s more than a decade in the works.
While the adoption of crypto as a mainstream payment mechanism has yet to displace more traditional methods in spite of the rise of digital transactions, crypto has still seen some success as a financial asset, that report argued.
One of the most pressing issues facing the space is a need for clear regulation to protect consumers, prevent fraud and drive institutional investment.
Taming the “Wild West” that is the crypto landscape remains a challenge, the report noted. This week began with the Securities and Exchange Commission accusing Silvergate Capital, once a favorite partner of the crypto industry, with a range of compliance failures.
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