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Should You Buy Bitcoin While It's Under $85,000? | The Motley Fool

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Should You Buy Bitcoin While It's Under ,000? | The Motley Fool

Bitcoin’s price has fallen 25% from a recent all-time high. Is this a buying opportunity or the start of another crypto winter?

Bitcoin (BTC 7.46%) soared to an all-time high of $106,182 per coin in January. With the fourth Bitcoin halving firmly in the rearview mirror and a more crypto-friendly regime in the White House, the original cryptocurrency looked ready to skyrocket like it did in 2020 and 2017.

But it hasn’t worked out that way. Bitcoin is down to $79,200 as of this writing on April 8. That’s a hair-raising 25% price crash, well ahead of the S&P 500 (^GSPC 9.52%) stock market tracker’s 19% drop.

Is this the start of a three-year crypto winter like the one you saw after the 2017 peak, or is it a temporary pullback like in the spring of 2021? Nobody knows for sure, but here’s how I look at the Bitcoin situation today.

Bitcoin’s volatile roller coaster

Bitcoin has a long history of extreme volatility. The oldest cryptocurrency swung from $785 per coin at the start of 2017 to $19,345 in mid-December. About one year after that, it ended 2018 at $3,880 per coin. The S&P 500 gained a modest 12% over that period, which looks like a horizontal line by comparison:

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Bitcoin Price data by YCharts

The recent price swings are actually quite modest from a historical perspective. The cryptocurrency’s daily standard deviance is about 2.7% in 2025. This volatility measure was twice that size in 2017 and just astronomical in 2009 and 2010:

Chart showing Bitcoin's annualized volatility declining from over 200% in 2010 to around 50% in 2025, illustrating the cryptocurrency's gradual market maturation.

Data source: Coin Codex. Chart by the author.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but this volatility chart shows a couple of helpful trends.

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  • Bitcoin’s volatility tends to rise and fall in the same four-year cycle as the underlying halving process. Things calm down during each crypto winter, followed by a sharp spike in the year after each halving event. As a reminder, the fourth halving took place in April 2024. Bitcoin may be due for a much more volatile price chart in 2025.
  • The current year-to-date volatility is comparable to last year’s, which was one of the least fickle years in Bitcoin’s history. The price swings over the past week or so should boost the volatility rating, especially if the wilder changes continue.
  • This chart lumps price jumps together with price drops as a single value. But there is a certain mountain-like shape to Bitcoin’s cyclical tendencies, with game-changing jumps typically followed by a long, slow drop back to a somewhat higher plateau than the previous cycle’s.
  • The introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) appears to have disrupted the standard pattern a bit, pre-loading Bitcoin’s chart with a short-lived price increase in the spring of 2024. The 2024 election results also gave most crypto names an unusual price boost. Other than these events in the run-up to 2025, the leading cryptocurrency still looks ready for the usual price gains in the second year of each halving turn.

Not just fancy chart art

You didn’t come here for the math, and I can’t blame you for distrusting Bitcoin’s charting patterns. Technical analysis is more performance art than financial science, and the chart-based musings above are kinda-sorta an example of that nonsense.

Then again, I’m also basing the discussion on more than the basic chart squiggles. There are reasons for Bitcoin’s four-year cyclicality, because the economic model of producing more coins keeps changing at that pace. Every turn of the wheel is unique, as the economic environment around the crypto sector keeps changing. Still, the halving events make a real difference — hard to predict with pinpoint accuracy, but still useful as a guiding rule of thumb.

My two Satoshis (digital micro-cents): Why Bitcoin’s future still looks bright

And after all of that, I’m convinced that Bitcoin will recover from the recent price cuts. It could take a few months, and there may be more pain to come, but I’ll be shocked if the tide doesn’t turn in the second half of 2025.

This digital currency was designed as a secure long-term storage facility for monetary value, also known as wealth. Strategy (MSTR 23.44%) chairman and co-founder Michael Saylor will talk your ear off on that topic while turning every possible stone to buy more Bitcoin for the company. One of my college-age kids just started her investment journey with an early Roth IRA account, and about 2% of that portfolio holds a popular Bitcoin ETF.

I’m no Saylor-style Bitcoin maximalist, but a small amount of exposure to the original crypto name seems appropriate for most investors. Getting in below $85,000 per coin is a serious discount from just three months ago, making the cryptocurrency about 25% more interesting.

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Crypto

SEC Turns to Public for Crucial Feedback on Cryptocurrency Trading – OneSafe Blog

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SEC Turns to Public for Crucial Feedback on Cryptocurrency Trading – OneSafe Blog

The cryptocurrency landscape is at a crossroads, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is making waves with a bold departure from its usual tactics. Instead of relying solely on enforcement, the SEC is actively soliciting insights from the public on how cryptocurrencies should be traded on regulated exchanges. Guided by the vision of SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, this initiative seeks to clarify regulations surrounding digital assets and find that delicate balance between encouraging innovation and safeguarding investor interests. The contributions from individuals and industry players may not just influence policy; they could redefine the entire cryptocurrency regulatory framework in the United States.

Decoding the SEC’s Inquiry into Cryptocurrencies

This inquiry delves into the complexities of distinguishing between security and non-security cryptocurrencies on national exchanges, a shift from the agency’s historically punitive approach. By inviting dialogue, the SEC aims to cultivate a regulatory environment that truly reflects the unique traits of digital assets while reinforcing essential investor protections. This represents a significant step forward in wrestling with the often opaque and tumultuous world of cryptocurrency regulation.

The Stakeholder Dialogue: A Window of Opportunity

Commissioner Peirce’s call for feedback opens a channel for industry voices to share their on-the-ground realities and the hurdles they encounter in cryptocurrency trading. Key issues up for discussion include how to navigate risk management for mixed trading pairs, developing tailored protections for investors in the digital realm, and refining the technical requirements for clearing and settlement. By fostering this collaborative atmosphere, the SEC could pave the way for a regulatory framework that resonates more closely with the actual practices in cryptocurrency trading—ultimately benefiting both investors and market participants.

Reshaping Cryptocurrency Trade Frameworks

Should this new regulatory approach be implemented thoughtfully, the ramifications could be profound, potentially transforming the very infrastructure of cryptocurrency trading. The establishment of legitimacy could usher in increased institutional investment, as clearer guidelines around custody and security standards surface to protect investors. This clarity is crucial in fostering an ecosystem where cryptocurrencies gain acceptance among traditional financial institutions, steering the sector away from a history marked by enforcement-driven stagnation that has stifled innovation.

Balancing Privacy and Regulatory Oversight

Conversations between SEC officials and leaders from the cryptocurrency sphere indicate the urgent need to balance the imperatives of privacy with the demands of regulatory oversight. With blockchain activities expanding at an unprecedented rate, Commissioner Peirce has signaled the necessity for a recalibration in how we surveil financial transactions. As she aptly puts it, there’s a clear challenge: how do we maintain financial privacy while enhancing oversight in an ever-evolving digital landscape? This dialogue underscores the complexities that lie ahead, where the push for tighter regulation must not compromise individual privacy rights.

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What Does the Future Hold for U.S. Cryptocurrency Markets?

This inquiry arrives at a time of exponential growth in global cryptocurrency trading volumes, making the SEC’s timing absolutely critical. If the U.S. fails to establish clear regulatory frameworks, it risks trailing behind the rest of the world. The insights gathered during this public feedback period will play a pivotal role in how the U.S. cryptocurrency market navigates the competitive pressures of a global arena. With meaningful contributions from industry stakeholders, the SEC has the chance to formulate rules that not only ensure investor safety but also stimulate creativity and growth in the cryptocurrency sector.

Conclusion: Seizing a Moment for Transformation

The SEC’s initiative to gather public insights on cryptocurrency trading represents a unique turning point for the entire ecosystem. By fostering open dialogue, there’s potential for the regulatory landscape to evolve into one that champions innovation while fiercely protecting investors. The outcome will depend on the active engagement of diverse voices in the market, ultimately crafting a balanced and robust framework that meets the distinctive challenges posed by cryptocurrency trading. As this critical process unfolds, the onus is on stakeholders to step forward, shaping a future where U.S. cryptocurrency markets can thrive upon a global stage.

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Crypto Tax Pressure Reaches Congress as Lawmakers Face Urgent Push to Rewrite Federal Rules

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Crypto Tax Pressure Reaches Congress as Lawmakers Face Urgent Push to Rewrite Federal Rules
Lawmakers are confronting rising pressure to modernize cryptocurrency tax policy as uncertainty clouds compliance, threatens U.S. competitiveness, and forces Congress to weigh legislative action amid warnings that capital and innovation could move offshore.
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Cryptocurrency becomes trendy holiday gift option

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Cryptocurrency becomes trendy holiday gift option

PHOENIX (AZFamily) — Cryptocurrency is appearing on more holiday wish lists as gift-givers look for alternatives to traditional presents.

A new survey from the National Cryptocurrency Association and PayPal shows 24% of Americans have given or are considering giving cryptocurrency this holiday season.

The survey also found that 17% of consumers would rather receive cryptocurrency than a gift card, and 31% of Americans believe crypto gifts are less likely to go unused than gift cards.

“It’s actually a trending holiday gift, especially compared to gift cards,” said Ali Tager, a spokesperson for the NCA. “We know crypto is becoming increasingly mainstream.”

Tager said people like receiving cryptocurrency because it has the potential to increase in value.

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“There’s so much you can do with this technology and it’s still in its early days,” she said.

Financial advisor Angelica Prescod said there are other investment options to consider for gift-giving.

“One of them is just gifting people something simple. Maybe some shares of some stocks that you may already have, that you are gifting over, or you can give them the cash to do so and open up their own account and feel involved in the process,” Prescod said. “For most folks [cryptocurrency] is not really the go to.”

Gift-givers can also contribute to 529 plans for college and other education expenses.

“It’s that gift that potentially can keep on giving,” Prescod said.

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For those still interested in giving cryptocurrency, experts recommend doing research first.

“Like with everything, anywhere, you always want to do your research. You want to make sure to verify your sources. You never want to take financial advice from strangers or click on random links that you receive,” Tager said.

The National Cryptocurrency Association offers a crypto simulator that helps users learn how to choose an exchange, set up a wallet, and send and receive cryptocurrency without spending real money.

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