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Prediction: When the Federal Reserve Starts Cutting Rates, This Cryptocurrency Will Be a Massive Winner | The Motley Fool

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Prediction: When the Federal Reserve Starts Cutting Rates, This Cryptocurrency Will Be a Massive Winner | The Motley Fool

With interest rate cuts on the horizon, Bitcoin’s prospects become all the more alluring.

After the steepest interest rate hikes in history, the Federal Reserve recently signaled it might soon adjust policy. Markets expect a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming September meeting, with more cuts likely to follow into 2025.

Several assets are likely poised to benefit from these adjustments, but one in particular is positioned best in this evolving landscape. Here’s why Bitcoin (BTC 0.38%) is the one asset investors should keep an eye on as the Fed turns from hawkish to dovish.

Image source: Getty Images.

The current landscape

Although people celebrated Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s announcement that rate cuts will be coming, there’s reason to be less optimistic. Based on recent data and developments, the decision to cut rates seems to have been driven by concerns like the recent yen carry trade and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ revision, which revealed a significant overcounting of 818,000 jobs. These developments stoked fears of fragility in the global economy and a weakening labor market, ultimately prompting the Fed to consider easing its stance.

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However, the inflation rate is still 2.9%, well above the Federal Reserve’s long-stated 2% target, and one Powell had previously declared non-negotiable. Additionally, the U.S. economy remains relatively robust. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. has only seen two quarters of negative real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, a key metric for measuring economic productivity. Furthermore, the latest third-quarter 2024 real GDP estimate is a solid 2%. This suggests the economy isn’t struggling under overly restrictive monetary policy.

It isn’t hard to see how rate cuts could cause inflation to tick up again in this scenario. Lowering interest rates encourages borrowing and spending, which boosts demand for goods and services. This increased demand in an economy that appears healthy exerts additional upward pressure on prices and further complicates the Federal Reserve’s efforts to maintain price stability.

Bitcoin: The premier asset

While increased liquidity and lower interest rates often lead to greater growth in equities as investors are incentivized to take on more risk, in this environment, I’d prefer a different asset: Bitcoin.

Considered the premier risk-on asset, Bitcoin has proven it thrives when there’s more liquidity in the market. From when the Fed slashed rates to near zero in February 2020 to February 2022, when rate hikes resumed, Bitcoin saw a staggering 375% jump. Its performance in that low-rate environment underscores its potential as rates begin to fall again.

But the primary reason Bitcoin is so attractive today isn’t just about benefiting from increased liquidity; it’s about safeguarding against inflation. In an economy that doesn’t appear to be struggling, the likelihood of inflation returning is significant. After the U.S. dollar lost 20% of its value over the last five years, I have no interest in returning to that scenario.

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Fortunately, Bitcoin offers a solution. With a fixed supply of 21 million coins, of which 19.6 million are already in circulation, Bitcoin offers a unique hedge against central bank malpractice and government intervention. Its decentralized nature means it isn’t controlled by any single entity, and its underlying blockchain technology ensures security and transparency. These characteristics make Bitcoin not just a speculative asset, but a robust store of value in an uncertain economic landscape.

Final considerations

The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts have been a long time coming and will certainly boost the economy. But that doesn’t necessarily mean there won’t be potential consequences or other issues that arise.

If economic growth can somehow be managed with minimal inflation, then kudos to Powell. But with no guarantees, I’d rather put my trust in the most decentralized, secure, and finite asset in existence.

For investors looking to navigate these choppy waters, Bitcoin represents not just a speculative play, but a strategic allocation in a world where traditional assets are increasingly subject to the whims of central banks.

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RJ Fulton has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Wisconsin lawmakers crack down on cryptocurrency scams

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Wisconsin lawmakers crack down on cryptocurrency scams

MADISON, WI (WTAQ) — A new bipartisan bill is the state legislature is attempting to keep Wisconsinites safe from scammers.

Assembly Bill 968 creates consumer protections around cryptocurrency kiosks—and is aimed at stopping criminals from using crypto-kiosks to steal from victims. It was passed by the assembly last month and is now heading to the senate.

Americans lost over $330 million to scams involving crypto-kiosks in 2025.

As amended; the bill that passed the assembly would:

  • set daily transaction limits at $1,000
  • require cryptocurrency-kiosk operators to provide users with receipts
  • implement consumer-identification measures for every transaction
  • allow scam victims to receive refunds

“This also requires crypto-kiosk operators to be licensed as a money transmitter with the Department of Financial Institutions,” said bill co-author Representative Dean Kaufert (R-Neenah). “Right now there is no state statute with regards to these crypto machines, and there has to be some oversight.”

Over 700 cryptocurrency kiosks are located in convenience stores, gas stations, restaurants, and other locations throughout Wisconsin.

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Detective Kevin Bahl with the Green Bay Police Department says although these scams don’t discriminate, scammers usually target the senior population.

“That’s because they’re the ones with more of the built up funds; that they can lose a significant of money, but we have seen a lot of younger victims too,” said Det. Bahl. “Victims are losing anywhere between a couple thousand dollars, all the way up to hundreds of thousands of dollars.”

The senate will reconvene beginning the second week of March, where Rep. Kaufert believes they will pass Senate Bill 975. Then the bill will go to the governor for approval by April 1. If approved, the law would likely go into effect around June.

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HSBC Says Lasting Iran Conflict Would Boost Oil, Gold, USD and Hurt Equities

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HSBC Says Lasting Iran Conflict Would Boost Oil, Gold, USD and Hurt Equities
Rising Iran conflict risks are jolting global markets, with HSBC warning oil shocks, currency swings, and equity volatility hinge on whether supply routes and production are disrupted, shaping inflation expectations and investor risk appetite worldwide. HSBC: Long-Running Conflict Would Reshape FX, Rates, and Equity Leadership Escalating geopolitical tensions are reshaping the global market outlook. Global […]
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Crypto Sector Suffers Exodus of Reliable Retail Investors | PYMNTS.com

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Crypto Sector Suffers Exodus of Reliable Retail Investors | PYMNTS.com

Retail investors are reportedly leaving the cryptocurrency sector, robbing the industry of a dependable driver.

That’s according to a report Sunday (March 1) from Bloomberg News, which says the speculative demand that once centered around crypto has shifted into stocks.

Since late 2024, retail investors have steadily shifted toward equities, a trend that sped up following the crypto crash last October, the report said, citing a new report from market-maker Wintermute which itself drew from JPMorgan Chase data.

Bloomberg characterizes the shift as striking at something key to the crypto’s market structure, which has long relied on investor mood as a key demand driver. If that demand is moving to other trades, it goes against the belief that digital assets can recover without something to draw back retail investors.

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“In prior cycles, excess retail risk appetite tended to concentrate in crypto,” said Evgeny Gaevoy, CEO of Wintermute, who added that crypto is now “one of many risky-asset classes with similar volatility profile that retail can use to invest and speculate on.”

More than $19 billion in positions were wiped out in October — $7 billion of them in less than an hour — liquidating more than 1.6 million traders, the report added.

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Since then, there’s been “a near-complete pivot into equities that is still ongoing,” the Wintermute said. Bitcoin has fallen from its record high of around $126,000 down to $66,000 amid reports of American and Israeli strikes against Iran, the report added.

In other digital assets news, PYMNTS wrote last week about the significance of Morgan Stanley’s application before the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) for a charter for a digital asset-focused national trust bank.

As that report said, a trust bank, as opposed to a traditional commercial bank, does not offer loans or deposits, but rather focuses on custody, fiduciary services and asset administration, basically acting as a highly regulated vault/legal steward. This structure, PYMNTS added, could be ideally suited to digital assets.

“The trust bank charter offers a solution,” the report added. “It allows a firm to handle digital assets under the supervision of the OCC while avoiding the capital and liquidity requirements associated with deposit-taking institutions. In regulatory terms, it is a bridge. In strategic terms, it could be an on-ramp for traditional finance to take over functions once dominated by crypto-native firms.”

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