Crypto
Prediction: Solana Will Be the First Cryptocurrency to Get a Spot ETF in 2025 | The Motley Fool
With Bitcoin and Ethereum already sporting their own funds, here’s my pick for the next up to bat.
In the wake of the spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals, there’s been a lot of speculation about which crypto might be next. Already, a handful of names have been suggested, including all of the usual suspects: XRP, Solana (SOL 9.57%), Cardano, Litecoin, and Avalanche.
Of these, Solana has the best chance of getting a spot ETF. In fact, this could happen as early as January 2025. From my perspective, there are two key factors that make this likely to happen.
Market demand
In terms of market cap, Solana ranks fifth among all major cryptocurrencies. That’s a huge determining factor, because market cap can be useful as a proxy for investor demand. As a general rule of thumb, Wall Street isn’t going to launch a product if there isn’t sufficient demand for it, so it’s worth looking into how much demand is coming from both retail and institutional investors.
Image source: Getty Images.
At the end of June, crypto investment firm GSR ran the numbers and concluded that Solana trailed only Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of overall demand. The firm’s “demand analysis” took into account three key factors: (1) market cap and overall trading volume, (2) assets under management of investment products already in the marketplace, and (3) size, activity, and reach of the online community for a specific token. Across all of these metrics, Solana outpaced rivals XRP, Cardano, and Avalanche.
There’s also great data available from CoinShares, which tracks institutional investor inflows into and out of the major cryptocurrencies. According to its latest report from early August, Solana still has a clear lead over major rivals such as XRP, Cardano, and Litecoin in terms of year-to-date inflows. That being said, investor inflows into both Bitcoin and Ethereum dwarf anything that’s happening with Solana right now.
Regulatory outlook
Of course, there’s no way that a Solana ETF is going to be approved if regulators have any doubts over whether Solana might actually be a security. This was the one factor that was hanging over Solana during much of the past year. But at the end of July, the SEC appeared to back down from its earlier stance when it acknowledged that it would no longer be looking into Solana as a potential security. If you’re hoping for a Solana ETF, that’s exactly what you want to see happen.
Moreover, it’s important to keep an eye on what’s happening in other financial markets, beyond the borders of the U.S. For example, in August, Brazilian regulators approved a spot Solana ETF. If that performs well in Brazil, then it could make it much easier to approve a U.S. version of the ETF. And, indeed, investment firm VanEck — one of only two firms that have already submitted a spot Solana ETF application to the SEC — now says that a Solana ETF is “inevitable.” I wouldn’t go that far, but it is looking good right now for Solana.
What to look for in 2024
As we saw from the recent market mini-crash in early August, there’s still quite a bit of volatility in the crypto market. Any sustained sell-off over the next few months would likely push back the launch date of a Solana ETF, simply due to the lack of investor demand for the product. Moreover, the SEC is unlikely to sign off on much of anything if the crypto market is showing signs of weakness, or if demand dries up for existing crypto ETFs.
So keep your eye on the overall health of the crypto market, as well as investor inflows into the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. If the trend is positive, then I’m much more bullish on a spot Solana ETF launching in early 2025. And if pro-crypto sentiment gains hold in the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election, then I would be even more bullish.
That being said, Solana is a high-risk, high-upside crypto investment. So if you are thinking about investing in Solana, make sure you do your due diligence. Investing in a Solana ETF would help to mitigate some of this risk, but it can’t eliminate the risk of holding Solana entirely.
Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin, Cardano, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Avalanche, Bitcoin, Cardano, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Crypto
Better Cryptocurrency to Buy Today With $3,000 and Hold for 7 Years: XRP vs. Bitcoin
Key Points
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Bitcoin is a store of value, but it’s facing a huge risk in the next 10 years or so.
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XRP has utility today, but it’s facing an onslaught of competitors in the same time frame.
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One of these assets has a more straightforward path to its ongoing success.
Buying a cryptocurrency and then holding it for seven years is less about picking the flashiest chain of today, and more about picking the investment thesis that can inspire your conviction over time, survive your own boredom when the market is slow, and perhaps most importantly, survive a couple of gut-check drawdowns.
So with $3,000 to allocate today, is it smarter to load up on Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) or XRP(CRYPTO: XRP) if you’re (hopefully) going to be holding whatever you pick through 2033?
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Image source: Getty Images.
Bitcoin’s job is simple
Bitcoin’s pitch is that it’s an asset with a fixed supply and enough of a social consensus about its worth that it functions as a store of value.
The coin’s supply cap is hard-coded at 21 million coins that can ever be mined. A lot of that supply, approximately 20 million Bitcoin, is already out in the world.
And if you’re building a well-balanced crypto portfolio, it’s the scarcity of the remaining supply and the guarantee that it’ll only get scarcer and more challenging to produce in the future that makes this coin a must-have holding.
Nonetheless, the long-term risk that investors should not dismiss is the advent of quantum computing, which in theory could crack Bitcoin’s encryption and enable the theft of coins at some point in the tail end of the next 10 years. There are some early steps taking place to update the coin to prevent that from being possible. Even so, the risk might not be fully addressed for years, or perhaps even too late to prevent a quantum attack which turns into a disaster for holders.
But the odds are good that Bitcoin’s developers will adapt to the threat in time.
XRP needs to keep winning to outperform
XRP is a bet that its chain, the XRP Ledger (XRPL), becomes important financial plumbing, and that demand for the coin rises alongside its use.
There are a few pieces of evidence that suggest it’s succeeding. The XRPL saw around 1.1 million daily transactions recently, and it hosts 7.6 million activated wallets. That activity could accelerate if financial institutions continue to onboard their capital to the network in hopes of managing it more readily than they could elsewhere.
Still, XRP competes against other money transfer rails and also against legacy systems for capital management. It needs to beat out that competition consistently over time to continue to grow. And while it’ll likely win enough of its competitive fights to survive and expand somewhat for the next seven years, to continue to thrive and be a great investment, it’ll need to be winning against bigger and bigger competitors all the while — and that’s a lot harder to believe in because it’s a high bar.
So if you want a coin for a seven-year hold that demands the least babysitting and the least competitive jockeying, invest your $3,000 into Bitcoin, as it only needs to change elements related to its security rather than its core feature set.
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Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Crypto
Millions of dollars in crypto left Iranian exchanges after strikes, researchers say
Crypto
Wisconsin lawmakers crack down on cryptocurrency scams
MADISON, WI (WTAQ) — A new bipartisan bill is the state legislature is attempting to keep Wisconsinites safe from scammers.
Assembly Bill 968 creates consumer protections around cryptocurrency kiosks—and is aimed at stopping criminals from using crypto-kiosks to steal from victims. It was passed by the assembly last month and is now heading to the senate.
Americans lost over $330 million to scams involving crypto-kiosks in 2025.
As amended; the bill that passed the assembly would:
- set daily transaction limits at $1,000
- require cryptocurrency-kiosk operators to provide users with receipts
- implement consumer-identification measures for every transaction
- allow scam victims to receive refunds
“This also requires crypto-kiosk operators to be licensed as a money transmitter with the Department of Financial Institutions,” said bill co-author Representative Dean Kaufert (R-Neenah). “Right now there is no state statute with regards to these crypto machines, and there has to be some oversight.”
Over 700 cryptocurrency kiosks are located in convenience stores, gas stations, restaurants, and other locations throughout Wisconsin.
Detective Kevin Bahl with the Green Bay Police Department says although these scams don’t discriminate, scammers usually target the senior population.
“That’s because they’re the ones with more of the built up funds; that they can lose a significant of money, but we have seen a lot of younger victims too,” said Det. Bahl. “Victims are losing anywhere between a couple thousand dollars, all the way up to hundreds of thousands of dollars.”
The senate will reconvene beginning the second week of March, where Rep. Kaufert believes they will pass Senate Bill 975. Then the bill will go to the governor for approval by April 1. If approved, the law would likely go into effect around June.
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