Crypto
One bitcoin could be worth $115K after halving, study figures (Cryptocurrency:BTC-USD)
rzelich
If $70K isn’t enough, how ‘bout $115K?
A looming reduction in bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) supply growth, known as the halving event, is poised to boost the price of the highest-profile cryptocurrency to over $115K in 2024, crypto tax-reporting firm CoinLedger said in a recent study.
A year after the past two halvings – there have only been three so far – the price of bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged by an average of 400%, according to the study, which based its $115K price prediction on whether the token is at $69K when it halves in April.
A bitcoin (BTC-USD) halving occurs when miners’ (Marathon Digital (NASDAQ:MARA), Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT), etc.) reward is slashed in half, essentially reducing the rate at which new tokens are created by 50%. That means the halving – which occurs about every four years – reduces the supply of new bitcoins entering the market, a move that could drive up the coin’s price should demand remain constant or rise.
The first mining reward was 50 bitcoins (BTC-USD). On Nov. 28, 2012, the first-ever halving, the reward was cut in half to 25. From there, the reward was lowered to 12.5 after the July 9, 2016 halving, and then to 6.25 on May 11, 2020. The next halving, at some point in April, will see the block reward fall to 3.125.
In 2016, the price of bitcoin (BTC-USD) jumped to $986 six months after the halving, a 51.6% increase from $650 on the day of the event, the report said. Similarly, the price rose 82.3% to $15,702 six months after the 2020 halving.
That’s an average increase of 67.7% six months after a halving event. “If a similar pattern were to follow, then Bitcoin could rise to a high of $115,733,” CoinLedger estimated. “Although this seems like a high estimation Bitcoin has shocked people before in past bull runs.”
Not everyone is bullish on the halving catalyst. J.P. Morgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou thinks bitcoin (BTC-USD) could drop to $42K after the event, a “level we envisage bitcoin prices drifting towards once bitcoin-halving-induced euphoria subsides after April.”
Speaking of euphoria, bitcoin (BTC-USD) briefly topped $70K on Friday to claim new territory, leaving the token up more than 50% this year and up more than 200% Y/Y. The rally has been fueled by strong inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds and the hype around the upcoming halving, as well as bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve and other major central banks will start cutting interest rates in a few months.
But SA analyst D Lombardo warned investors that bitcoin is at a mid-cycle peak and a near-term correction is likely, citing bearish on-chain metrics and giddy-level sentiment.
Other bitcoin miners: HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), Hut 8 (HUT), Bitfarms (BITF), Bit Digital (BTBT), CleanSpark (CLSK), Core Scientific (CORZ).
Crypto
XRP Prepares for Quantum Future as Ripple Maps XRPL Strategy for Security Readiness
Key Takeaways:
- Ripple outlines a phased roadmap to prepare XRPL for quantum-era cryptography risks.
- Industry momentum grows as XRPL testing highlights performance and security tradeoffs.
- Developers at Ripple will expand testing to balance innovation with network stability.
Ripple Maps Quantum Security Strategy
Ripple’s post-quantum strategy reflects a growing shift in blockchain security as quantum computing risks gain credibility. The company’s latest Insight, published April 20 by Senior Director of Engineering Ayo Akinyele, outlined a structured roadmap to prepare the XRP Ledger for future cryptographic disruption while preserving network performance.
The Insight stated:
“Ripple is introducing a multi-phase roadmap to prepare the XRP Ledger (XRPL) for a post-quantum future, with a target for full readiness by 2028.”
It also detailed collaboration efforts: “Ripple is working with Project Eleven to accelerate development, including validator testing and early custody prototypes.”
Akinyele explained that quantum security is becoming more relevant because blockchain networks rely on cryptographic systems that could eventually be broken by sufficiently advanced quantum computers. On XRPL, each signed transaction reveals a public key on-chain, which could weaken long-term wallet security in a post-quantum environment.
He also pointed to the “harvest now, decrypt later” threat, where attackers collect cryptographic data today and wait for future quantum capabilities to exploit it. While this does not indicate an immediate failure of current protections, it increases the urgency of preparing systems that secure long-duration value. These risks reinforce the need for early testing of quantum-resistant cryptographic systems and structured migration planning.
XRPL Testing Targets Long-Term Stability
Ripple’s roadmap consists of four phases, starting with contingency planning for a potential failure of existing cryptographic standards. This includes a “Quantum-Day” framework designed to enable secure migration to post-quantum accounts if vulnerabilities emerge. Additional phases focus on evaluating National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)-recommended algorithms under real network conditions, measuring impacts on throughput, storage, and verification efficiency. XRPL’s native features, including key rotation and deterministic key generation, provide a technical advantage by enabling gradual migration without forcing users to abandon existing accounts. Parallel testing on development networks will allow developers to assess performance tradeoffs before broader implementation.
The senior director of engineering emphasized long-term execution and coordination, stating:
“We should not view addressing the quantum threat on XRPL as a single upgrade, but rather a multi-phased strategy of carefully migrating a live, global financial infrastructure without compromising the value of digital assets protected by the XRPL.”
Akinyele indicated that achieving post-quantum readiness requires balancing cryptographic innovation with operational stability, ensuring the network remains efficient while adapting to future security challenges.
Crypto
Central Banks Say US Stablecoins Threaten Financial Integrity | PYMNTS.com
Central bank officials are warning of potential threats from the increasing use of U.S. stablecoins for international payments.
Crypto
Upcoming ‘Bitcoin’ Movie With Casey Affleck, Gal Gadot Probes Satoshi’s Identity
Key Takeaways:
- New Bitcoin film stars Casey Affleck and Gal Gadot, probing Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity.
- Craig Wright’s disputed role deepens divisions across Bitcoin developers and market participants.
- Industry reaction may polarize further as the film revives debate over Bitcoin’s origins.
Bitcoin Creator Dispute Moves Into Mainstream Film
The mystery surrounding Bitcoin’s creator is moving into the mainstream as “ Bitcoin,” previously referred to in online reports as “ Bitcoin: Killing Satoshi,” adapts one of crypto’s most contested debates to the screen. Ahead of the Cannes market, Patrick Wachsberger’s 193, a film sales and production company, launched international sales on the project, signaling a push to global buyers. Around the same time, Acme AI & FX, the production company behind the film, confirmed it had wrapped production on the Doug Liman-directed feature. The movie, described as the “first fully-generated, studio-quality AI feature film,” centers on the unresolved question of who created Bitcoin and why that issue continues to influence industry discussions and market perception.
The story follows Charlotte “Lotte” Miller, a war correspondent played by Gal Gadot, who is recruited by blockchain investor Calvin Ayre, portrayed by Pete Davidson, to write an investigative report on Australian computer scientist Craig Wright. Casey Affleck plays Wright, with Isla Fisher also appearing in the cast. The film was written by Nick Schenk and produced by Ryan Kavanaugh and Lawrence Grey, with production beginning at the end of February. The synopsis described the film:
“A high-stakes conspiracy thriller that asks the question no one in power wants answered.”
A longer description presents the movie as the story of one man’s effort to prove he created Bitcoin, a claim that allegedly puts his life in danger and sparks a global controversy involving tech billionaires, world leaders, and the future of the financial system.
Craig Wright Claims Renew Industry Polarization
From a Bitcoin industry standpoint, the film enters a highly disputed issue. Wright’s claim that he is Satoshi Nakamoto has been challenged for years by developers, researchers, and other participants in the sector, many of whom point to the lack of accepted cryptographic proof. A 2024 U.K. court ruling also rejected his claim, adding legal weight to that skepticism. Within parts of the BTC community, Wright is widely referred to as “Faketoshi,” and critics have accused him of fraud tied to those assertions.
The production approach has also drawn attention, as the “fully-generated” label refers largely to AI-built environments and visuals, while actors perform traditionally with digital settings added in post-production. At the same time, the subject matter is likely to drive industry reaction, as many bitcoiners view the claims as legally and technically discredited rather than unresolved.
That divide helps explain why the film is likely to provoke a polarized response across crypto. Many will see it as reopening a debate already settled by legal findings and technical evidence, while others may view it as an attempt to revisit unanswered questions around motive and power. The synopsis stated:
“All this leads Lotte, and the audience, to the central question — If Craig Wright didn’t invent Bitcoin, why is a coalition controlling trillions in global wealth spending hundreds of millions and risking everything to destroy him?”
“This is an exciting and gripping story, set in the mysterious and high-stakes real world of crypto,” Wachsberger told Deadline. The positioning underscores how the film is being framed, not just as a thriller, but as a mainstream take on one of bitcoin’s most contested narratives, where claims have long been weighed against verifiable proof.
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