Business
Commentary: Here’s how Musk’s SpaceX IPO could crash your 401(k)
Wall Street is moving to stuff SpaceX shares into small investors’ portfolios, exposing them to a potentially overpriced stock.
Fidelity Investments, the big brokerage and mutual fund firm, long has had a rule protecting its small retail clients from plunging into initial public stock offerings while the shares were still subject to IPO-related hype.
In most cases, Fidelity would allow IPO investments only for clients with at least $500,000 in their brokerage accounts.
No longer. For the SpaceX IPO expected to launch on June 12, Fidelity has cut the threshold to only $2,000.
This estimate borders on fantasy.
— Aswath Damodaran, NYU, on SpaceX’s estimate of its market reach
It’s a curious decision, considering that the SpaceX IPO will be not only the largest such IPO in history — with a possible $75 billion in shares coming on the market, valuing the entire company at about $1.8 trillion — but potentially the most over-hyped. SpaceX, you may know, is the biggest company controlled by Elon Musk, so if you buy its shares, you’re buying into his vision.
A Fidelity representative told me that it made the change because SpaceX has reserved about 30% of its offered shares for retail investors, much more than the traditional 10%, “which means there are more shares being offered to retail clients.”
Fidelity’s liberalized policy is an example of how Wall Street has been moving the investment goalposts in order to stuff more of SpaceX’s shares into the portfolios of ordinary investors.
Fidelity’s clients, of course, can make their own decision about whether to buy in, but that’s not the case for owners of some stock index funds, who may find SpaceX among their holdings whether they like it or not.
That’s because managers of stock index funds are duty-bound to add a stock to their holdings once it’s added to the index they track.
The risk inherent in the SpaceX IPO may fall significantly on unwitting retirement account holders, who tend to be heavily invested in index funds. Vanguard, which pioneered index mutual funds, says that about 30% of retirement account holders choose equity funds if they’re offered by plan sponsors, and most are indexed.
There’s no mystery why Wall Street is anxious to sell SpaceX to the small investor. It’s because almost all of the major investment banks, led by Goldman Sachs, are underwriters of this massive stock issue, so they have an incentive to get the shares out the door promptly. Accordingly, there has been a big push on the Street to stuff them into the leading stock indices, leaving index fund managers no choice but to buy.
Before getting into some of the weirder features of the SpaceX IPO, here’s a brief primer into how index funds work and how index fund managers have responded to the prospect of a huge and widely followed stock issue dropping onto the market. Nor is SpaceX the only mega-IPO lurking on the horizon. It’s likely to be followed this year by the AI firms for Anthropic and OpenAI.
The overseers of stock indices, of which the largest are Standard & Poor’s (which owns the S&P 500, the standard benchmark for the overall stock market) and Nasdaq (owner of the Nasdaq 100 index of the largest Nasdaq-listed companies), generally have been cautious about when to add a stock to their indices.
Standard & Poor’s, for example, waits until a stock has been publicly traded for at least a year and has turned a profit in four quarters, including the quarter prior to its addition. At Nasdaq, the rule has been that companies have to wait for at least three months and have at least a 10% float, meaning that at least 10% of its shares are available for trading.
With the SpaceX IPO in the offing, however, Nasdaq reduced its “seasoning” period to only 15 days and removed the 10% threshold. I asked Nasdaq if it made the change to entice SpaceX to list on its exchange rather than on the New York Stock Exchange, but didn’t get an answer. Anyway, Nasdaq did get the listing.
Another index operator, FTSE Russell, which manages the broad-based Russell 2000 index, reduced its entry threshold for big companies to as few as five trading days after an IPO, rather than waiting for the next quarterly or annual report.
Investors may have dodged the most significant bullet on June 5, when Standard & Poor’s opted not to change its index-listing rules for any of its market indices. But if you’re holding index funds that track the big-cap Nasdaq 100 or the Russell 2000, you’ll be tethered to SpaceX , depending on its weight in the index — if it keeps flying, good for you. If it crashes, you’ll take a loss.
That brings us back to SpaceX itself. As its name indicates, the company is best known as a rocketship firm, with billions of dollars in U.S. government contracts aimed at transporting humans to the moon.
But what is it, really? In its prospectus, the company describes its mission as building “the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars.”
This is not the language of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, the gurus of value investing. It’s more like the language of Robert A. Heinlein, who wrote science fiction. (As it happens, Heinlein coined the term “grok,” which Musk took as the name for the AI bot of his social media platform X.)
Even if you believe in the goals, none of them is rationally achievable within the traditional investor’s horizon of a few years or even a few decades, much less within your lifetime. The same goes for the company’s claim of a “total addressable market,” or TAM, of $28.5 trillion for its products and services; for perspective, consider that the gross domestic product of the United States in 2025 was about $32 trillion.
Almost all of SpaceX’s claimed TAM comes from its prospective AI business — the only one of its three business segments that has virtually no concrete achievements to claim. It’s not clear that even Heinlein would have written such a stretch into his books.
In real life, Aswath Damodaran, the stock valuation expert at NYU, says the figure “borders on fantasy” and places it in the same category as other “bloated and patently unreachable numbers floated for companies” by Silicon Valley promoters.
Currently, the jewel in SpaceX’s revenue crown is Starlink, Musk’s network of orbiting internet-providing satellites. Starlink provided the largest share of SpaceX’s revenue in 2025 — $11.32 billion of its $18.8 billion — and was its only profitable segment, with $4.42 billion in net income. Space operations lost $657 million on $4.08 billion in revenue, and AI lost $6.36 billion on $3.2 billion in revenue.
The IPO, therefore, looks like a massive bet on AI, propped up by profits from Starlink. There’s reason to be concerned about Starlink’s future, however. SpaceX’s IPO prospectus discloses that although the number of Starlink subscribers has more than doubled over the last year, to 10.3 million as of March 31 from 5 million a year ago, its average revenue per subscriber has been shrinking, to $66 as of March 31 from $99 at the end of 2023.
Moreover, Starlink satellites have a useful life of only five years, meaning that the fleet has to be refreshed more often than the average American household replaces the family car, at untold expense in research and development and launches. About 10,000 satellites are currently in orbit.
It’s also possible that Starlink may run into increased political backlash. Its satellites have been blamed for interfering with astronomical observations and posing an ever-increasing risk of space collisions.
In 2021, Musk dismissed the collision concerns: “Space is just extremely enormous,” he said, “and satellites are very tiny.”
Then there are the governance features of SpaceX. Put simply, only one person is in a position to make any decisions, Elon Musk. He will own a mere 12.3% of the Class A shares due to be issued in the IPO, which each receive one shareholder vote, but 93.6% of the Class B shares, which have 10 votes each. That gives him 85.1% of all shareholder votes. As a result, the prospectus says, “Mr. Musk will be able to control the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval,” including the selection of the board of directors.
Will he exercise his control mostly for the benefit of shreholders, or for himself? His record isn’t encouraging. As I’ve reported, he has a habit of using his various companies to prop up each other, most recently by sticking SpaceX and other companies with the excess inventory of Cybertrucks, the ridiculed pickups marketed by Tesla, which he also controls. When his SolarCity solar energy company ran into financial trouble in 2016, he merged it into Tesla with the assent of a compliant Tesla board.
None of this necessarily means that SpaceX will be a drag on the market. It could soar on IPO days and remain aloft, despite what the numbers suggest will be a majestic overvaluation from the inception. Or not. Either way, small investors could end up holding the bag.
Business
Commentary: How right-wing anti-transgender attacks led to a Supreme Court ruling upholding sex discrimination
At the Supreme Court, the unfounded fear of boys masquerading as girls in youth sports rolled the clock back on gender equality.
On the surface, the Supreme Court’s June 30 opinion upholding state laws barring transgender girls from women’s and girl’s sports teams looks like a victory for women’s rights.
The 6-3 opinion by Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh certainly presents itself that way. “Females and males have inherent physical differences relevant to athletic performance,” Kavanaugh wrote. “Therefore, in contact sports, forcing female athletes to compete against males can create significant safety risks.” He also asserted that “forcing female athletes to compete against males can undermine competitive fairness.”
The ruling applied to prohibitions enacted in Idaho and West Virginia against “biological” males’ participation on women’s teams in public schools. Federal judges in both states overturned the bans. The Supreme Court majority restored them. The ruling essentially upholds similar bans enacted in 25 other states.
There was no record of any transgender person participating in school sports in the State, let alone any ‘problem’ with transgender students … creating unfair competition or unsafe conditions.
— Justice Sonia Sotomayor, demolishing the Supreme Court’s argument in favor of banning transgender girls from girl’s sports
Kavanaugh, like Donald Trump and others in the anti-transgender camp, maintained that one’s gender is an immutable fact of life, established even before birth.
Anything else, Trump stated in an executive order he issued on inauguration day 2025, could only be the product of “gender ideology extremism.” The U.S., his order stated, recognizes “two sexes, male and female. These sexes are not changeable and are grounded in fundamental and incontrovertible reality.” That’s a “biological truth,” he declared.
In his own version of this overconfident and factually insupportable conclusion, Kavanaugh wrote: “As all agree, females and males have inherent physical differences relevant to athletic performance.”
Science recognizes that some people are “born with sex traits that don’t fit into typical male or female patterns,” to cite a discussion on the Cleveland Clinic web page on the topic “intersex.” The condition “may involve chromosomes, hormones, reproductive organs or genitals.”
From a psychological standpoint, medical science recognizes “gender dysphoria” as a real condition often requiring counseling and medical intervention such as the use of puberty blockers and hormones to stave off the development of secondary sex characteristics until the condition can be resolved.
No one disputes that there are physical differences between the sexes. Few would dispute that on average or even at the median, males may be bigger and more powerful than females, or that in certain contact sports the difference may be telling and on occasion dangerous.
But that’s not the same as asserting that the physical differences between males and females invariably mean that men will invariably prevail over women in all competitions or that their participation will endanger women.
The International Olympic Committee — in a policy statement Kavanaugh cited incompletely — says that in “most running and swimming events,” males have a 10% to 12% advantage over women. That’s a range that would accommodate the full spectrum of outcomes — transgender females win, cisfemales win, they tie. (The “cis” prefix denotes those living consistent with their birth gender.)
West Virginia and Idaho addressed this ambiguity by banning transgender women from all girls’ teams. So under their rules transgender girls can’t play football or soccer with cisgirls. But what’s the argument in favor of banning them from the 100-yard dash, or cross-country track, or diving, or archery?
But something else is going on here. The Supreme Court’s ruling was almost preordained, given the years-long campaign by conservatives to demonize transgender individuals as if they’re members of an alien species.
It will be recalled that during his presidential campaign, Trump spun a despicable fantasy in which children were kidnapped in school and secretly subjected to sex-change operations.
Trump’s executive order wiped out policies aimed at protecting transgender adults from discrimination. He moved to outlaw gender-affirming medical therapies for anyone under 19 by cutting off federal funding for healthcare institutions that provide such care.
He banned transgender individuals from serving in the military and ordered federal prison officials to move transgender inmates into the general populations consistent with their birth genders, which exposes them to physical assault. (Federal Judge Royce Lamberth of Washington, D.C., has blocked the government from transferring three transgender women into the male prison population or terminating their hormone treatments.)
I wrote during Trump’s first term, when his anti-transgender policies were still gestating, that the goal was to show that “one can target any community, as long as it doesn’t have a strong political voice or political power. These are the actions of bullies and cowards, pretending to be strong.”
Last year, the Supreme Court struck its first blow against transgender rights by upholding a Tennessee law banning transgender care, including puberty blockers and hormone therapy, for minors. Similar laws have been enacted in 25 other states. The majority in that ruling by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. was identical to the one in the June 30 ruling — Roberts, Kavanaugh, and Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel A. Alito Jr., Neil M. Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett.
Who are the targets of this ideological campaign? They number only about 1.6 million U.S. adults, or one-half of 1% of the U.S. population. About 300,000 adolescents ages 13 to 17, or 1.4%, identify as transgender, according to a study by UCLA School of Law.
In West Virginia, as Justice Sonia Sotomayor observed in her dissenting opinion, “there was no record of any transgender person participating in school sports in the State, let along any ‘problem’ with transgender students … creating unfair competition or unsafe conditions.”
In endorsing the flat bans directed at transgender women in Idaho and West Virginia, Kavanaugh argued that any attempt to implement case-by-case judgments of students’ requests to join sports teams inconsistent with their biological gender would create “an enormous practical and administrability problem.”
Is that so? That wasn’t the case in Maine, where the annual K-12 population is more than 170,000. There, a committee was charged with determining whether a student’s participation in a sport consistent with their gender identity but inconsistent with their biological sex would “result in an unfair athletic advantage” or present a risk of injury to others. The committee held 56 hearings from 2013 through 2021, or an average of seven per year. During the entire time span, only four involved transgender girls. (The outcome of those hearings couldn’t be learned.)
It was Maine’s policy, one might recall, that provoked a confrontation between Trump and Maine Gov. Janet Mills at the White House last year, when Trump threatened to withhold federal funding from the state unless it barred transgender students from competing on women’s sports teams. “We’ll see you in court,” Mills snapped.
Whether the Idaho and West Virginia laws genuinely protect girls from unfair competition is questionable. (The Idaho law is styled the “Fairness in Women’s Sports Act.”) In practice, the laws may subject women in public schools to “invasive sex verification procedures,” as educational expert George Theoharis of Syracuse University wrote after the court ruling.
They’re also based on a retrograde view of women as fragile creatures needing men’s protection, Theoharis wrote — “the same logic that has historically been used to justify excluding women from making their own healthcare decisions and girls from rigorous math and science; that physically demanding work is simply beyond them.” (There don’t appear to be any state laws barring transgender women from competing in men’s sports.)
Becky Pepper-Jackson, the plaintiff in the West Virginia case, in which she is identified only as B.P.J., is the only transgender girl who sought to join girl’s teams — track and cross-country — in the state. That was in 2021, just after West Virginia passed its law and she was about to enter sixth grade. She didn’t appear to pose any competitive risk to others on the track and cross-country teams she applied to join — her lawyers told the Supreme Court that on those no-cut teams, she “came in near the back.”
Anyway, she had not gone through male puberty, which theoretically might have endowed her with a competitive advantage, because she had been taking puberty blockers and female hormones.
Thanks to the court’s ruling, Sotomayor observed in a dissent joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, West Virginia can deny Becky access to school sports “because it thinks they have an inherent athletic advantage, even if the facts show that they do not.”
B.P.J., Sotomayor wrote, “cannot practice on girls’ teams, even if she would not take anyone’s spot in an eventual competition, even if everyone who tries out for the team makes it, and even if having the chance to participate could aid immensely in treating B. P. J.’s gender dysphoria.”
So whose interest was really protected by the Supreme Court?
Business
Orange County real estate investor pleads not guilty in $100 million bank fraud case
An Orange County real estate investor accused of criminally defrauding an Arizona bank of nearly $100 million pleaded not guilty Monday and remains in custody.
Mahender Makhijani, 44, of Corona del Mar — who also was ordered by an arbitrator to pay $1.34 billion in a separate civil fraud case — was arraigned in Santa Ana federal court on two charges.
He is accused of bank fraud and making a false statement to a bank in a June 8 case involving a $100 million real estate loan made by Phoenix-based Western Alliance Bank. He was taken into custody on June 10.
Makhijani is accused of providing bogus collateral for the October 2024 loan now in default. In a civil lawsuit, Western Alliance said the outstanding balance as nearly $99 million.
Prosecutors say he falsified title insurance policies that showed the bank would have a first lien on the underlying collateral if the loan went bad, when in fact it did not.
A trial was set for August 11 before U.S. District Judge David O. Carter in Santa Ana.
Michael Schachter, his criminal defense attorney, did not respond to messages seeking comment.
In the civil case, an arbitrator in May ordered Makhijani to pay Laguna Beach real estate mogul Mohammad Honarkar $1.34 billion after ruling he had fraudulently induced him into a 2021 joint venture — and then wrested control and lost to creditors more than two dozen properties Honarkar had owned.
Makhijani has not been criminally charged in that case, but prosecutors alleged in an affidavit in support of the bank fraud charges that he used “force and threats” in his dealings with Honarkar and others — including taking over the landmark Hotel Laguna in 2023 that Honarkar was renovating.
Prosecutors sought to hold Makhijani without bail after his arrest.
The affidavit noted he is a legal Indian immigrant with a home and bank accounts in that country, has access to private jets and threatened to “run away” if caught in a difficult situation.
The request was denied and he was granted $500,000 bail.
However, Makhijani remains in custody after a hearing sought by prosecutors last month before Magistrate Judge Autumn Spaeth.
The judge declined to accept a $450,000 cashier’s check submitted by a Makhijani associate for the bail, finding insufficient proof the source of the funds was legitimate, according to court records.
Makhijani is not prominent outside Orange County real estate circles, but he established a thriving distressed-assets business over the last decade that attracted prominent Southern California real estate investors.
Prosecutors said it paid for a lifestyle that included two multimillion-dollar homes in Corona del Mar, a luxury apartment in Newport Beach and various luxury vehicles.
As of last month, prosecutors had not fully traced his assets, which they believe are not held in his name and some of which may be in India.
The businessman employed an array of shell companies and strawmen to sign documents on his behalf, and to stand in for him as operators of his companies, according to the affidavit.
Makhijani told an associate he took extra precautions because wanted to insulate himself from litigation and that “they were sharks in the distressed world who took advantage of people,” the affidavit stated.
Business
Many indie festival films struggle to get distribution. Alamo Drafthouse is trying to change that
Dine-in movie theater chain Alamo Drafthouse Cinema is launching a new initiative to show unreleased independent films that had successful festival runs, a move that comes as specialty films have struggled to gain distribution.
The Alamo Exclusives program, announced Wednesday, will give limited theatrical runs to films that showed at festivals including Sundance, the Toronto International Film Festival, Tribeca Festival and South by Southwest festival, as well as Alamo’s own Fantastic Fest.
The idea is to help showcase films that received critical acclaim, but did not secure distribution or acquisition deals. The chain will not acquire these films, but instead will enter into agreements with filmmakers to exhibit their films on Alamo Drafthouse screens. By showing these films to audiences on the big screen, these films could get the momentum they need for further opportunities.
The program’s first film will be the documentary “Butthole Surfers: The Hole Truth and Nothing Butt,” which debuted last year at South by Southwest and chronicles the history of the punk rock band.
The film will be shown in Alamo Drafthouse theaters for a limited time later this summer.
The Austin-based chain, which is owned by Sony Pictures, has a long history of curating indie films for its audiences, giving Alamo Drafthouse confidence that its viewers want to see these kinds of movies, company chief executive Michael Kustermann said in a statement.
“Time and again, they’ve shown they’ll come out to support bold, original films when given the opportunity,” he said. The new Alamo Exclusives “gives us another way to champion filmmaker-driven films that deserve to be discovered and connect them with the wider Alamo Drafthouse audience.”
The initiative comes at a difficult time for indie films. Since the pandemic upended the movie business, traditional studios and distributors have had less appetite for risk, including betting on smaller indie films out of festivals.
And as the 2023 dual writers’ and actors’ strikes thinned out theatrical lineups, that aversion to uncertainty became a push for reliable and profitable hits.
“Too many incredible films premiere at festivals and then never receive the theatrical life they deserve,” Lisa Dreyer, director of Fantastic Fest and film innovation at Alamo, said in a statement. “We are actively searching for films across all genres, from horror to comedy, to everything in-between, to champion in this new, exciting way.”
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