Cryptoeconomy enabler Coinbase Global (COIN) rallied 16% over the past five days to celebrate its public listing on the S&P 500 index, scheduled for next week.

Coinbase’s addition to the S&P 500 marks a historic milestone as the first cryptocurrency exchange included in the index, symbolizing a step toward mainstream acceptance of crypto. This move is expected to boost institutional interest and attract new capital, especially through passive funds that must buy S&P 500 components, effectively making Coinbase and, by extension, Bitcoin (BTC), a “must-own” investment.

However, while rosy developments are nice to see for existing shareholders, I remain neutral on the stock due to risks like potential overvaluation, declining earnings, revenue concentration, and increasing competition.

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, who holds a Buy rating on Coinbase, estimates that its inclusion in the S&P 500 could attract approximately $16 billion in passive and active fund inflows, potentially boosting the stock further. However, with Coinbase’s market capitalization already having surged by $10 billion, much of this anticipated inflow may be priced in. The focus now shifts to the company’s underlying fundamentals.

Coinbase earns revenue through transactions, subscriptions, and services, mostly coming from transaction fees such as spreads and retail trading fees. In its Q1 2025 earnings report published earlier this month, Coinbase saw a 10% decline in trading volume, leading to total revenue of $2 billion—a 10% drop quarter-over-quarter—and transaction revenue falling 19% quarter-over-quarter to $1.3 billion.

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The company attributed this decline to crypto market volatility and ongoing uncertainty. Ultimately, much of Coinbase’s performance remains closely linked to the health and activity of the cryptocurrency market.

Widespread adoption of cryptocurrency will inevitably require government involvement. Crypto enthusiasts hoped President Donald Trump, a vocal supporter of cryptocurrencies, would help legitimize the space. However, meaningful legislation has yet to materialize, and Trump’s so-called “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” which doesn’t involve actual cryptocurrency purchases, fell short of expectations.

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In fact, Trump appears to have used cryptocurrency primarily for personal gain, as seen in recent meme coin promotions and family ventures. Meanwhile, Bitcoin trading remains banned in countries like China, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Recognizing its heavy reliance on Bitcoin, Coinbase is diversifying by expanding into more stable revenue streams such as custody services, staking, and institutional offerings.

Coinbase faces fierce competition in this uncertain landscape from exchanges like Binance, Kraken, Robinhood, Gate.io, and Gemini. Binance remains the global leader, holding a 38% market share as of April 2025. Each platform has its own strengths and weaknesses, catering to different user bases based on factors like geography and user experience. This makes the crypto exchange space highly competitive, with no single player dominant enough to eliminate the rest. That said, Coinbase’s early entry into the U.S. market and strong regulatory compliance provide it with a notable advantage domestically.

Despite experiencing a sequential revenue decline, Coinbase clearly did something right to earn its spot in the S&P 500. Coinbase remains profitable, and critically, has the financial strength to withstand short-term cryptocurrency volatility, as evidenced by a significantly improved debt-to-asset ratio.

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On Wall Street, COIN sports a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 12 Buy, 11 Hold, and zero Sell ratings in the past three months. COIN’s average price target of $264.19 represents potential upside of 8% over the next twelve months.

Earlier this month, analyst Ed Engel of Compass Point upgraded COIN to Hold with a price target of $195. The analyst expressed optimism and caution surrounding the emergence of altcoins. While he noted that altcoins could increase trading activity, he also recognized their structural challenges.

Oppenheimer’s Owen Lau is more bullish on COIN, slapping an Outperform rating on the stock and a price target of $293. Oppenheimer believes the stock’s inclusion has huge implications for Coinbase and the crypto industry as a whole. According to the analyst, getting into the S&P 500 not only increases purchases from index funds but also puts Coinbase under the closer radar of non-index funds that benchmark against the S&P 500.

Coinbase’s inclusion in the S&P 500 marks a significant milestone for both the company and the cryptocurrency industry, but much of this positive news is already reflected in its stock price. COIN currently trades at a lofty P/E ratio of ~50—more than double the sector median—reflecting high expectations.

While its impressive revenue growth of over 100% in 2024 partially justifies this premium, that growth pace is unlikely to continue, with future projections more modest. Coinbase’s heavy reliance on cryptocurrency trading volume creates earnings uncertainty, compounded by ongoing political and regulatory risks and fierce competition in the exchange market. Given these factors, it’s wise to temper enthusiasm and take a more cautious stance on COIN stock.

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A disturbing trend of kidnappings and extortion attempts targeting cryptocurrency firms and their owners is sweeping across France and other European Union nations, prompting urgent calls for increased governmental protection for individuals within the burgeoning digital asset industry. Authorities are increasingly convinced that these brazen attacks are orchestrated by organized criminal groups employing a chilling new tactic: targeting the families of wealthy cryptocurrency investors and business executives.The core tenet of cryptocurrency ownership, “not your keys, not your coins,” which emphasizes individual control over digital assets as a security measure against online theft, has inadvertently created a new vulnerability in the physical world. While storing cryptocurrency in “cold wallets” (offline storage) can safeguard against remote hacking, it exposes holders to the “$$$5 wrench problem” – the threat of physical coercion to surrender private keys and, consequently, their digital fortunes. Now, cryptocurrency industrialists and their families are finding themselves alarmingly susceptible to this very scenario.

Disturbing trend of family kidnappings

The latest incident unfolded in broad daylight in Paris, where a masked gang attempted to abduct the daughter of Pierre Noizat, the CEO of prominent French cryptocurrency firm Paymium, from a public street. This terrifying event marks at least the third such attack in France in recent months, signaling a dangerous escalation. In January, the co-founder of another leading French crypto company, Ledger, and his wife were brutally kidnapped. Then, in May, the father of a crypto company head was snatched. While all victims in these prior incidents were eventually rescued, both kidnapped fathers tragically suffered the amputation of a finger.In the most recent attack, the husband of Pierre Noizat’s daughter bravely fought off the assailants, sustaining a fractured skull in the process, before managing to flee after a quick-thinking shop owner intervened, chasing the attackers away with a fire extinguisher. Reports from Ars Technica indicate that similar attacks have occurred in Belgium and Spain in recent months, suggesting a coordinated effort across multiple European nations. Law enforcement agencies across the continent are actively investigating several of these cases, with growing suspicion that they are linked to sophisticated organized crime networks.In a bid to deter further attacks, investors within the cryptocurrency industry are actively working to raise awareness among criminals about the inherent traceability of most cryptocurrency transactions. While attackers may operate under the misconception that they can coerce victims’ families into transferring digital assets to untraceable wallets, the reality is more complex. Cryptocurrency transactions, even those involving privacy-focused coins, leave a digital trail that can be followed by skilled investigators. Indeed, police forces have successfully tracked and apprehended numerous individuals involved in these recent kidnapping and extortion attempts, demonstrating the limitations of anonymity in the blockchain ecosystem. The industry hopes that highlighting these successful arrests and the inherent risks of cryptocurrency-based extortion will serve as a deterrent.French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau addressed the growing concerns this week, stating his intention to meet with French cryptocurrency entrepreneurs to discuss and encourage enhanced personal security measures. However, as of yet, there has been no concrete indication of broader governmental action or the provision of dedicated protection beyond these verbal assurances.For individuals holding their own cryptocurrency investments, these events serve as a stark reminder that while safeguarding digital assets offline can mitigate the risk of hacking, it does not eliminate the threat of real-world exploitation. In this evolving landscape of crypto-related crime, discretion and privacy regarding one’s holdings are proving to be increasingly vital. The most prudent strategy, security experts advise, is to maintain a low profile about one’s wealth and potential cryptocurrency holdings, as those unaware of your financial status are less likely to target you for extortion.

A Wellington man has been arrested as part of an FBI investigation into an organised criminal group that stole cryptocurrency valued at US$265 million ($450m).

The cryptocurrency is alleged to have been fraudulently obtained by manipulating seven victims and was subsequently laundered through multiple cryptocurrency platforms, according to police.

This occurred between March and August 2024.

“Over the past three days, search warrants have been executed in Auckland, Wellington, and California with several people arrested, including one in New Zealand. A total of 13 people are facing charges,” police said in a statement.