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Bitcoin ETF Is Now “Almost Certain” to Come Through in January – K33 Research

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Bitcoin ETF Is Now “Almost Certain” to Come Through in January – K33 Research

Growing anticipation surrounding the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States has fueled the rise in Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market. As of today, Bitcoin surged past $42,000 and briefly hit $43,000 before facing a robust barrier at $43,500, failing to break through this key resistance level.

Research & Analyst Reveals ETF is Almost “Approved”: Here’s How?

With these changing dynamics, researchers at K33 Research expressed in their report substantial certainty that the green light for a spot Bitcoin ETF is now “almost certain” to come through in January.

In recent updates to its application, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has shown readiness to implement cash creation before the January 10 deadline. This move aligns with the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) preference for a “cash redemption model” for bitcoin ETFs. This model facilitates investors to exchange their shares for fiat currency instead of the underlying asset, enabling smoother liquidation without direct bitcoin sales. Analyst Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg interprets BlackRock’s choice of the cash-based model as a strategic pre-holiday maneuver.

K33’s senior analyst Vetle Lunde and vice president Anders Helseth see this development as a positive indicator favoring the potential approval of the ETF within the coming weeks, despite acknowledging the cash creation model’s inefficiencies.

Notably, these adjustments in filings often follow discussions with the SEC, signaling the regulator’s inclination towards approving a Bitcoin ETF. James Seyffart, an ETF expert at Bloomberg, anticipates the SEC greenlighting the first spot in Bitcoin ETF between January 5 and 10, aligned with the initial final deadline for a Bitcoin ETF application.

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Altcoin Surge Amidst Bitcoin Stability

Meanwhile, altcoins are gaining traction, witnessing a surge in open interest (OI). Despite Bitcoin’s trading volume surging and remaining high, the price has been confined within the $40,000 to $44,000 range. This stagnant range drives attention towards altcoins, especially those experiencing rapid price surges, such as ORDI, BONK, TIA, and INJ.

After 24 meetings and numerous filing edits, can the SEC deny?

Although a definitive timeline for SEC approval remains unconfirmed, experts and crypto enthusiasts expect a favorable decision by January 10. John Deaton and investor Mike Alfred forecast an astonishing 98.7% chance of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval in January. At the same time, Trader Bob Loukas is betting on a 99.9% chance of ETF getting a green light.

There is a lot of talk about how a spot Bitcoin ETF might affect BTC’s price and the cryptocurrency market as a whole. Predictions range from significant investments going into BTC to doubts about how it will affect current BTC operations, as experts at JPMorgan Chase said it would negatively impact the market. 

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Digital Asset Fund Outflows Slow, Signaling ‘Sentiment Is Turning’

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Digital Asset Fund Outflows Slow, Signaling ‘Sentiment Is Turning’

Digital asset funds have seen outflows for three consecutive weeks, although the outflow slowed during the most recent week.

After experiencing outflows of $600 million in each of two consecutive weeks, these funds saw an outflow of $30 million during the week that ended June 29, Bloomberg reported Monday (July 1), citing data from CoinShares International.

Despite the slowdown in outflows, the three-week total marks the biggest outflow from digital asset funds since bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission in January, according to the report.

Bitcoin ETFs themselves had inflows totaling $10 million during the week ended June 29 after having two weeks of outflows, the report said.

Ether investment products had outflows of $60 million — up from $58 million the previous week and their largest outflows since August 2022, per the report.

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The price of ether — which is the second-largest cryptocurrency, behind only bitcoin — leaped in May after the SEC approved an ether ETF, but it has since come down, according to the report.

In a Monday press release announcing the digital asset fund flows data, James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, wrote that the data shows signs that “sentiment is turning for bitcoin.”

Crypto firm Bakkt said in May that the SEC’s approval of bitcoin ETFs may lead to increased mainstream adoption of crypto and institutional investors playing a bigger role in the cryptocurrency trading market.

“As evidenced in our trading volumes in Q1, we’ve begun to see positive green shoots in the market and the overall demand environment improving, with more industry activity, higher coin prices and overall higher retail trading volume,” Bakkt President and CEO Andy Main said at the time.

It was reported June 16 that J.P. Morgan Chase said the state of the cryptocurrency market may not be sustainable.

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While crypto net inflows were impressive at the time, driven by demand for spot bitcoin ETFs, J.P. Morgan Chase analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote that those inflows might not be entirely made up of new funds coming into the crypto space.

“We believe there has likely been a significant rotation away from digital wallets on exchanges to the new spot bitcoin ETFs,” Panigirtzoglou explained at the time.


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Mexico Ranks Third in Latin America for Cryptocurrency Ownership: Blockchain Trends

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Mexico Ranks Third in Latin America for Cryptocurrency Ownership: Blockchain Trends
  • Currently, 3.1 million Mexicans own cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, ethereum, solana, dogecoin, or binance.
  • Coinbase aims to enter the Mexican market with cost-effective cryptocurrency withdrawal services, aiming for a 30% reduction.

The adoption of cryptocurrencies among Mexicans has seen substantial growth, with 3.1 million individuals owning digital assets such as bitcoin, ethereum, solana, dogecoin, or binance. This accounts for 2.5% of Mexico’s population, positioning the country as the third highest in Latin America for cryptocurrency adoption, trailing behind Brazil and Argentina. 

Globally, Mexico ranks 16th in cryptocurrency adoption, according to the Chainalysis Global Crypto Adoption Index.

“Facilitate the withdrawal of cryptocurrencies and offer services up to 30% cheaper than traditional cross-border payment methods.”

Luiz Eduardo Abreu Hadad, Sherlock Communications Researcher and Blockchain Advisor, wrote:

 “It seems that Latin America is ready to ride the crypto wave.”

Remittances have played a pivotal role in driving this adoption. In 2023, remittances sent to Mexico totaled $63.313 billion, marking a significant increase and fueling a 60% growth in cryptocurrency exchanges to local currency transactions through platforms like Bitso Business.

Continuing with the previous Crypto News Flash report, the interest in the Mexican market among crypto exchanges continues to rise. Coinbase, for instance, aims to enter the Mexican market by offering cryptocurrency withdrawal services that are up to 30% cheaper than traditional cross-border payment methods.

Luiz Eduardo Abreu Hadad, a researcher and blockchain advisor at Sherlock Communications, noted that “it seems Latin America is ready to ride the crypto wave,” reflecting the region’s growing enthusiasm for digital assets.

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Brazil leads Latin America in cryptocurrency adoption, ranking 9th globally, driven by the approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for digital assets and increased acceptance of cryptocurrencies by banks.

Argentina, on the other hand, ranks second in Latin America and 15th globally for cryptocurrency adoption, with 5 million citizens owning some form of digital currency. High inflation rates and stringent capital controls have spurred this adoption among the Argentine population.

In contrast, despite El Salvador’s adoption of bitcoin as legal tender, cryptocurrency adoption has declined. The country dropped from 55th place in 2022 to 95th place in 2023 in terms of public acceptance.

In a previous Crypto News Flash report, overall, the increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies in Mexico and across Latin America underscores a growing trend influenced by economic factors like remittances, inflation concerns, and regulatory developments that shape public perception and engagement with digital assets.

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Cryptocurrency Price Today: Bitcoin Rises Above $63,000 Over The Weekend

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Cryptocurrency Price Today: Bitcoin Rises Above $63,000 Over The Weekend
Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s oldest and most valued cryptocurrency, managed to rise above the $63,000 mark over the weekend. Other popular altcoins — including the likes of Ethereum (ETH), Dogecoin (DOGE), Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Litecoin (LTC) — landed in the greens across the board as the overall Market Fear & Greed Index stood at 49 (Neutral) out of 100, as per CoinMarketCap data. The Ethereum Name Service (ENS) token emerged to be the…
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