Business
What’s behind California’s painful gas prices? Oil, taxes and geopolitics
Anybody who’s stuffed up a automotive in latest months is aware of that fuel costs are loopy excessive. And it’s no secret that costs in California are nicely above these in the remainder of the nation — the present common worth in California, about $4.75 per gallon, is about $1.20 greater than Wednesday’s U.S. common, in accordance with AAA.
And costs are anticipated to go up some extra earlier than they go down, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration tasks. The ache isn’t ours alone; it’s being felt globally as gasoline costs rebound from the pandemic-induced droop in 2020. However that’s little consolation for Californians shocked by report costs on the pump.
What’s behind all this? To a big diploma, it’s the identical power that’s pushing California housing costs into the stratosphere: Demand has been outstripping provide for a while now. Within the case of gasoline, that’s a operate not simply of COVID-related manufacturing issues but additionally our rising consumption of masks, COVID take a look at kits and plastic packaging.
There are additional prices imposed by California’s insurance policies and markets too. Throw in stiff sanctions on Russian oil exports, and that’s a recipe for much more costly gasoline.
Right here’s a breakdown of why fuel costs are so excessive.
Oil costs
Gasoline is one in every of many merchandise produced from crude oil, which is purchased and offered on markets which can be international in scope. The patrons sometimes are refiners that convert the crude into merchandise for customers or industrial customers, together with transportation fuels, propane, ammonia and the feedstocks utilized in some plastic items.
One issue within the present doldrums is flagging crude oil manufacturing, which began falling in 2019, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration reported. Though it’s anticipated to return to its pre-pandemic degree this 12 months, that’s not going to be sufficient to sate the rising demand.
What occurred to manufacturing? Geopolitics performed a key position at first, within the type of U.S. sanctions on oil exports from Iran and Venezuela and a choice by OPEC nations to chop manufacturing. Then the pandemic hit, and the sharp drop in demand for motor fuels led producers around the globe to tug again.
Since then, consumption of crude oil has rebounded, though the demand for motor fuels hasn’t. Manufacturing, in the meantime, has elevated at a slower tempo, partially due to operational issues and partially due to choices by OPEC to carry down provides and maintain costs excessive.
The American Petroleum Institute, a commerce affiliation for the U.S. oil and fuel trade, reported that the U.S. demand for petroleum in January was the very best for that month since 1963. Whereas the demand for gasoline and jet gas remained under their pre-pandemic ranges, the demand for petrochemicals utilized in merchandise equivalent to medical plastics and packaging supplies rose to the very best degree since 1965, making up virtually one-third of crude gross sales. The demand for truck gas was considerably increased than its pre-pandemic degree as nicely.
This shift displays a lingering impact of the pandemic. It’s not simply the hundreds of thousands of COVID take a look at kits and different medical merchandise produced from petrochemicals. It’s the mountain of packaging supplies getting used to help our prodigious on-line buying behavior, in addition to the fleets of vehicles wanted to ship these items.
The hole between manufacturing and consumption has triggered the USA — nonetheless the world’s main supply of crude oil — to import greater than it produces, mentioned Dean Foreman, chief economist for the petroleum institute. It has additionally led refiners to attract down their inventories, he mentioned. These three situations — decreased manufacturing, increased imports and thinner inventories — have traditionally translated to increased fuel costs, Foreman mentioned.
The availability of each crude oil and refined fuels might take a major hit because the Ukraine disaster deepens. Russia is the world’s second-largest contributor in each classes. It accounts for about one-sixth of the crude and refined petroleum merchandise in the marketplace, Foreman mentioned.
Though Europe is a a lot larger client of Russian oil than the U.S. is, Foreman mentioned, sanctions on Russia’s output would ripple by the worldwide market. “Any vital disruption to that must be made up some place else,” he mentioned, including that the already tight market would have hassle discovering a alternative.
Translation: Extra strain on costs.
The Vitality Data Administration projected earlier this month that international oil provide and demand would come again into steadiness this 12 months, with manufacturing exceeding demand in 2023. That will result in crude oil costs falling barely this 12 months and extra subsequent 12 months. However even then, the EIA predicts, crude costs within the U.S. would stay greater than 60% increased than they had been in 2020. And the company’s projections didn’t issue within the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The value of crude oil is the one largest element of gasoline prices, representing 43% of the value per gallon, the EIA estimated. Notably, a 2014 examine by the Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis confirmed that pump costs rose rapidly when crude costs went up, however they took a extra leisurely path down when crude costs fell.
E-newsletter
Completely Price It
Be your cash’s boss! Discover ways to make a price range and take management of your funds with this eight-week e-newsletter course.
You might often obtain promotional content material from the Los Angeles Instances.
California taxes and insurance policies
However whereas crude costs and the hole between provide and demand account for the rise in U.S. fuel costs, they don’t clarify why Californians pay greater than residents of different states. Californians had been paying $4.75 a gallon on Wednesday, in accordance with AAA’s each day common. We had been joined within the $4 membership by Hawaii, at $4.53. Each different state was beneath $4.
California’s premium stems from the state’s environmental legal guidelines and its taxes on motor fuels, in addition to the particular mix of gasoline required within the hotter months.
California’s environmental guidelines require refiners to comply with particular gasoline formulation designed to cut back air air pollution when the temperature is excessive. Specifically, the reformulated gasoline is much less unstable and contributes much less to the state’s smog drawback. In consequence, the California Air Sources Board says, gasoline costs differ from winter to summer season.
By the Western States Petroleum Assn.’s calculation, California state insurance policies elevated the value of gasoline right here by $1.27 per gallon on the finish of January. Virtually two-thirds of that quantity got here from the state’s 51-cent excise tax and its 2.25% gross sales tax on motor fuels. The remainder represented the price of the state’s Low Carbon Gasoline Customary and its cap-and-trade program to cut back carbon emissions.
The price of the gas commonplace and the cap-and-trade program are dictated by market forces, however they haven’t gone up as sharply as crude oil costs have. As an alternative, the associated fee per gallon is about 8 cents increased now than it was final Might, the Western States Petroleum Assn. mentioned.
In keeping with the Legislative Analyst’s Workplace, the state excise tax is charged to gasoline suppliers earlier than they ship gasoline to retail stations. Nonetheless, that tax is handed alongside to drivers by increased costs on the pump.
California drivers additionally should pay a federal excise tax on gasoline, which is equally charged to suppliers and felt on the pump. However so do drivers in different states.
Business
Amazon Prime Will Release a Melania Trump Documentary
Amazon said on Sunday that its Prime Video streaming service would release a “behind the scenes” documentary about Melania Trump’s life.
The film will head to movie theaters and stream on Amazon Prime in the second half of this year, the company said in a statement. Mrs. Trump will be an executive producer of the documentary, which started filming in December, the month after her husband, Donald J. Trump, won the presidential election.
Amazon said it was “excited to share this truly unique story.”
The company and its founder, Jeff Bezos, who also owns The Washington Post, had a rocky relationship with Mr. Trump during Mr. Trump’s first presidential term. But in recent months, Amazon and Mr. Bezos have taken steps to repair it. The tech giant said last month that it would donate $1 million to the president-elect’s inaugural fund, joining Meta and executives of some other Silicon Valley companies in writing checks to the inaugural committee. Mr. Bezos has said he is “very optimistic” about Mr. Trump’s new term in office and is eager to work with his administration on reducing regulation.
During his first presidential term, Mr. Trump criticized Mr. Bezos because of his newspaper’s political coverage and questioned whether the U.S. Postal Service was charging Amazon too little for shipping. Amazon, in turn, accused Mr. Trump of using “improper pressure” on the Pentagon to deny the company a cloud-computing contract.
Amazon now appears to be eager to turn the page.
In October, The Post said it would stop endorsing presidential candidates, a decision made by Mr. Bezos, and did not publish an endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris that had already been drafted. Mr. Bezos defended his decision, saying newspaper endorsements “create a perception of bias.”
Last week, Ann Telnaes, a Post cartoonist, said she was resigning after the paper’s opinion section rejected a cartoon that showed Mr. Bezos and three other technology executives bending the knee to a statue of Mr. Trump while offering the president-elect bags of money. David Shipley, The Post’s opinion editor, said the cartoon was rejected because the section had published a column on the same subject and had already scheduled another one for publication. He said he had asked Ms. Telnaes to rescind her resignation, saying, “The only bias was against repetition.”
Amazon did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the efforts by the company and Mr. Bezos to forge closer ties to Mr. Trump. The Trump transition team also did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Mrs. Trump has recently shown more willingness to share details about her life with the public. Last year, she published a memoir that described her career as a model, marriage to Mr. Trump and time in the White House. It became a No. 1 New York Times best seller. Her role as executive producer of the documentary suggests that she will have some influence over how it depicts her life.
Brett Ratner, a director and producer behind movies like “Rush Hour” and “The Revenant,” will direct the documentary. Mr. Ratner has kept a lower profile in recent years after questions were raised about his behavior. In 2011, he resigned as co-producer of the Oscars broadcast after he used an anti-gay slur at a public event. In 2017, Mr. Ratner was accused of sexual misconduct by six women in an article published by The Los Angeles Times, claims that he denied.
Amazon, which will have exclusive rights to the movie about Mrs. Trump, said it would reveal more details on the project as filming progressed and it completed release plans.
Business
Brett Ratner directs Melania Trump documentary on Prime Video
Director Brett Ratner is back behind the camera again for a new documentary on Melania Trump, his first film since facing allegations of sexual harassment raised nearly a decade ago by several female associates, including actor Olivia Munn.
The documentary, which has been licensed by Amazon Prime Video, will be released later this year in theaters and also on the streaming platform. The film is produced by Fernando Sulichin (New Element Media) and Trump.
“We are excited to share this truly unique story with our millions of customers around the world,” Amazon said in a statement Sunday.
Amazon and a representative for Trump did not immediately respond to a request for comment about why Ratner was picked as director for the film or past sexual harassment allegations against him. Ratner is best known for his films “Rush Hour,” “X-Men: The Last Stand” and “The Family Man.”
In an interview with ABC News in 2018, the then-first lady said that when people accused others of harassment they needed to provide proof.
“You cannot just say to somebody, ‘I was sexually assaulted, or you did that to me,’ because sometimes the media goes too far and the way they portray some stories — it’s not correct, it’s not right,” she told the news outlet.
Sexual harassment and misconduct allegations against Ratner were reported by The Times in 2017. The allegations included a model who said she was forced to perform oral sex on Ratner and an actor who said she saw Ratner masturbating and ejaculating when she came into his trailer.
Ratner’s attorney, Martin Singer, disputed the accounts to The Times in 2017.
“I have represented Mr. Ratner for two decades, and no woman has ever made a claim against him for sexual misconduct or sexual harassment,” Singer wrote to The Times in 2017. “Furthermore, no woman has ever requested or received any financial settlement from my client.”
After The Times reported on the allegations, Ratner experienced a setback in his career.
In 2017, Warner Bros. severed ties with the embattled filmmaker and said it would not renew its production deal with Ratner. At the same time, the Diageo liquor company discontinued Ratner’s whiskey brand, Hillhaven Lodge, named after the director’s Beverly Hills estate.
In 2017, Ratner sued a woman who’d accused him of rape for defamation. He dropped the lawsuit in 2018.
Meanwhile, Amazon — which was founded by billionaire Jeff Bezos, who recently met with President-elect Donald Trump — has told the Associated Press that it will donate $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund and will carry the Jan. 20 ceremony on its streaming platform, which is considered an in-kind donation worth an additional $1 million.
Times staff writer Amy Kaufman and night archiving supervisor Valerie Hood contributed to this report.
Business
The Fallout From the End of the U.S. Steel Deal
The end of a troubled takeover bid
President Biden is set to officially block Nippon Steel’s $14 billion takeover of U.S. Steel as soon as Friday, most likely putting an end to an industrial megadeal that ran up against widespread political opposition.
But the decision could set off a cascade of consequences, including whether it would dissuade foreign investment in key industries, even from crucial U.S. allies like Japan. There’s one near-certainty: Expect a lot of litigation.
The deal’s demise seemed increasingly inevitable. In March, Biden said it was “vital” that U.S. Steel remained American-owned. The United Steelworkers’ union opposed the transaction from the start, questioning Nippon Steel’s commitment to maintaining the American company’s production and unionized employment levels. (That U.S. Steel is headquartered in Pennsylvania, a crucial election battleground state, escaped no one’s notice.)
Last month, the federal government panel, known as CFIUS, that reviewed the deal on national security grounds expressed concern that the Japanese suitor’s global business considerations could eventually outweigh any commitments it made to preserve U.S. Steel production levels.
President-elect Donald Trump also pledged to block the takeover once he took office.
Others have worried that blocking the deal could chill foreign investment. In recent days, some senior Biden advisers warned that rejecting the transaction could damage relations with Japan, The Washington Post reported.
Japanese officials pressed Biden to approve the deal. Rejecting it “will send a stark message that investment from Japan, regardless of lack of security concerns, is not welcome in the U.S.,” Takehiko Matsuo, a senior trade minister, wrote to Biden administration officials last month.
The matter will probably head to court. Nippon Steel has complained of the White House’s “impermissible influence” in the CFIUS process. That lays the groundwork for the Japanese company or U.S. Steel to sue over Biden’s expected move.
DealBook also wonders whether the companies would sue each other, perhaps citing a failure to do enough to win approval. (The deal agreement requires Nippon Steel to pay its American counterpart $565 million if regulators block the transaction.)
What next for U.S. Steel? The company’s C.E.O., David Burritt, has warned that the steel maker needs investment to upgrade its aging plants. Even CFIUS acknowledged that the company had a “history of inadequate attempts to improve its competitiveness.”
One possibility is another bidder — such as Cleveland-Cliffs, which had been previously rebuffed by U.S. Steel and whose stock has been under pressure — could swoop in. But there’s bad blood between Burritt and his Cleveland-Cliffs counterpart, raising the question of whether U.S. Steel investors would need to heap on the pressure to get a deal done.
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
Mike Johnson faces a nail-biter vote on Friday for House speaker. Johnson has the backing of President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk, but is hampered by a razor-thin majority and a fractious House Republican conference. Corporate America will closely watch the vote’s outcome for what it says about the chamber’s ability to pass legislation once Trump takes office.
The authorities identify the driver of the Las Vegas Cybertruck explosion. The man was an Army master sergeant on leave from active duty, who killed himself immediately before the rented Tesla detonated outside a Trump hotel in Las Vegas on New Year’s Day. The F.B.I. said it had found no link between the incident and the deadly New Orleans rampage hours earlier involving an Army veteran.
China places trade restrictions on dozens of U.S. companies. The Ministry of Commerce announced on Thursday that export-control limits would be put on 28 companies, including Boeing and Lockheed Martin. The move comes just weeks before Trump takes office, and will probably escalate a trade war between Washington and Beijing. More shots could be fired soon: The Biden administration is weighing a ban on Chinese-made drones.
Does Tesla sales stall matter?
At any other car company, the sales numbers announced by Tesla on Thursday would have been a catastrophe. Deliveries for the year fell slightly in a growing market, the first annual decline in the company’s history.
Yet the reaction on Wall Street was relatively muted when compared to the huge rally in Tesla’s share price in recent months, The Times’s Jack Ewing writes for DealBook. That reflects how much Elon Musk has sold investors on the idea that the cars are a piece of a much bigger vision that includes self-driving taxis and humanoid robots — and his close ties to President-elect Donald Trump.
Shares closed down but the stock is up more than 55 percent since Election Day. Musk’s relationship with Trump has given him a direct line to the White House that he can use to promote his business interests.
“Investors have shifted,” Erik Gordon, a professor at the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan, told DealBook. “They thought of it as an E.V. company. Now they think of it as a technology platform. ‘What will Elon think of next?’”
Musk has revealed little detail about his plans. During conference calls with investors and analysts, he has focused on what he says will be trillions of dollars in revenue from self-driving taxis that are probably years away from mass production.
Yet Musk may find it difficult to realize his grand visions if the company keeps losing market share to rivals such as General Motors, BMW and BYD. (The Chinese car maker reported record sales in 2024.)
Does Musk need to accelerate plans for a lower-cost Tesla? He told investors in October that the company would begin selling a car this year that would cost substantially less than a Model 3 sedan, which starts at $42,500 before state and federal incentives.
But Musk has sounded ambivalent about the new vehicle, calling it “pointless” unless it’s capable of driving autonomously. And Tesla has not displayed a prototype yet.
That has led to speculation that Musk is not that interested in mass-market cars anymore. “What excites Musk is the technology for the day after tomorrow,” Gordon said. “An econobox E.V. just doesn’t ring his bell.”
One thing to watch in 2025: Musk’s reaction if car sales remain tepid and Tesla shares fall further. Would that prompt him to deploy more of the skills he used to build Tesla into the world’s largest maker of electric cars?
A blow to net neutrality
A federal appeals court has knocked down one of President Biden’s biggest tech policy accomplishments: the F.C.C.’s net neutrality rules on broadband internet providers that sought to safeguard consumers’ access to online content.
The dismantling comes as companies brace for the incoming Trump administration to usher in a new era of deregulation, and further limit regulatory reach.
The decision is a win for cable and telecom companies such as AT&T and Comcast, ending a two-decade effort to regulate them like utilities. It also shows the impact of a recent Supreme Court ruling that is expected to limit federal agencies’ power.
A recap: The regulations, which have been championed by Google, Facebook and Netflix, were put in place under the Obama administration amid concern that internet service providers could become de facto gatekeepers with the power to slow or block access to content. The rules were revoked during the first Trump term, only to be reinstated by the F.C.C. in April.
Brendan Carr, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to lead the F.C.C., has been a vocal critic of the rules.
The ruling could inspire other legal challenges. It relies on the Supreme Court’s upending last year of the Chevron doctrine requiring courts to defer to federal agencies’ interpretation of ambiguous statutes. “The F.C.C.,” Judge Richard Allen Griffin wrote, “lacks the statutory authority to impose its desired net-neutrality policies.”
Tim Wu, a former Biden administration official who coined the term “net neutrality,” slammed the decision, calling it “blatant judicial activism that puts corporate interests over American democracy.”
What’s next? The fight over net neutrality isn’t over: The decision doesn’t affect state laws, including those in California, Washington and Colorado. And Democrats at the F.C.C. called on Congress to enshrine net neutrality into law. Still, many commentators note that net neutrality isn’t the hot-button consumer issue it had once been.
“The market no longer thinks it’s a big deal and hasn’t for a while,” Blair Levin, a former chief of staff to the F.C.C., told The Times.
A big reshuffle at Meta
In the latest sign of how Big Tech is repositioning itself for the new Trump administration, Meta has tapped a prominent Republican to head its global policy team.
Joel Kaplan, a longtime Meta employee and a deputy chief of staff under former President George W. Bush, will take over from Nick Clegg, as first reported by Semafor.
Meta has tried to take itself out of the political spotlight. Clegg, a former deputy prime minister of Britain, joined the tech giant when the company was facing fierce blowback, including for its handling of disinformation on its platform during the 2016 election.
He’s credited with smoothing relations with regulators, especially in Washington and Brussels.
Could his leftish politics have become a liability? Clegg may have been planning his exit before the election, but he didn’t hide his opinions. Last month, he warned that Elon Musk, whose X and xAI compete with Meta, could become a “political puppet master” and criticized Musk’s stewardship of X.
The remarks came as many businesses worry about retribution from President-elect Donald Trump and Musk — and as Big Tech C.E.O.s have gone out of their way to curry favor with them.
Kaplan’s deep Republican roots could help Meta in the new Trump era. He joined Facebook in 2011, and later served as Clegg’s deputy. Before that, he clerked for Justice Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court and is a close friend of Justice Brett Kavanaugh. (He appeared at Kavanaugh’s contentious confirmation hearings, and later apologized to Meta employees who thought his presence showed a political preference).
He has also been one of the loudest voices inside Meta pushing against restrictions on political content.
Mark Zuckerberg has largely turned away from politics. For years, the tech mogul publicly campaigned for liberal causes but has shifted after coming under sustained fire. Trump criticized Zuckerberg and threatened to put him in jail after accusing Meta of censoring conservative views.
But Zuckerberg, like other Big Tech leaders, has made efforts to court Trump, having traveled to Mar-a-Lago to meet the president-elect after the November election.
THE SPEED READ
Deals
-
Several prominent hedge funds — including Millennium, D.E. Shaw, Bridgewater Associates and Ken Griffin’s Citadel — reported double-digit returns last year. (Reuters)
-
Hindenburg Research, the activist short-seller, announced a bet against Carvana, accusing the used-car sales platform of accounting manipulation. (CNBC)
Politics and policy
-
President-elect Donald Trump picked Ken Kies, a longtime tax lobbyist for clients including Microsoft, as the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for tax policy. (Bloomberg)
-
“How Silicon Valley won a powerful House committee” (Politico)
Best of the rest
-
The U.S. surgeon general, Vivek Murthy, called for cancer warnings to be placed on alcoholic beverages; doing so would require Congress to act, however. (NYT)
-
Richard Easterlin, an economist whose work challenged the assumption that more money always leads to more happiness, died Dec. 16. He was 98. (NYT)
-
“The Rise Of Big Potato” (The Lever)
We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.
-
Health1 week ago
New Year life lessons from country star: 'Never forget where you came from'
-
Technology1 week ago
Meta’s ‘software update issue’ has been breaking Quest headsets for weeks
-
Business5 days ago
These are the top 7 issues facing the struggling restaurant industry in 2025
-
Culture5 days ago
The 25 worst losses in college football history, including Baylor’s 2024 entry at Colorado
-
Sports5 days ago
The top out-of-contract players available as free transfers: Kimmich, De Bruyne, Van Dijk…
-
Politics3 days ago
New Orleans attacker had 'remote detonator' for explosives in French Quarter, Biden says
-
Politics3 days ago
Carter's judicial picks reshaped the federal bench across the country
-
Politics2 days ago
Who Are the Recipients of the Presidential Medal of Freedom?