Business
What We’re Watching in 2025
Andrew here. Happy New Year and happy Saturday. This morning, we’re taking a look at what may — or may not — happen in 2025. This is not an effort to crystal-ball the future so much as it is a rundown of big topics that the DealBook team and I have on our radar screen in the new year.
On this list: Changes to deal-making in the new Trump era, the future (or end) of D.E.I. efforts, the growing momentum of workers returning to the office, the evolving relationship between China and the U.S., new investments in artificial intelligence, and yes, the role of Elon Musk in all of the above. Let us know what you think. And we’ll revisit this list at the end of the year.
Deals will flow. Deal makers pretty much universally expect a flood of deals under President-elect Donald Trump after four years of pent-up activity under President Biden, whose antitrust enforcers challenged a record number of mergers. The more interesting question: Which kinds of companies will make those deals? More M.&A. in the energy sector seems probable, given Trump’s support for the industry. Bank deals could also take off: After the regional banking crisis, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the country could benefit from more mergers. Deals may also pop up to address cybersecurity concerns, the impact of GLP-1 drugs and the fierce A.I race.
Media companies will reshuffle. Media executives and their advisers have been saying for years that the industry needs a drastic overhaul to address its new reality: an overabundance of streaming options and the decline of the legacy cable industry. Deals that were effectively considered a no-go under Biden’s aggressive antitrust enforcers may finally be given a green light under a Trump administration.
Everyone is watching to see what a handful of key players do next: Will Comcast’s move to spin off its cable business inspire others, such as Warner Bros. Discovery, to do the same? Will Paramount use Larry Ellison’s deep pockets to acquire streaming businesses? Will Rupert Murdoch respond to his failed attempt to change his family trust by selling Fox, making it bigger, or trying to buy out some of his children? Will Trump allow a major media company (or his own) to buy TikTok?
Big Tech may not catch a break. While corporate America has been anticipating a longer leash under the Trump administration, Silicon Valley giants may still face a lot of scrutiny. Several of Trump’s picks to lead key regulators — Andrew Ferguson at the Federal Trade Commission, Gail Slater at the Justice Department’s antitrust division and Brendan Carr of the Federal Communications Commission — are expected to keep looking closely at Big Tech.
Unlike Lina Khan, the outgoing F.T.C. chief whose lawsuits fighting tech giants’ market power came from a progressive perspective, many of Trump’s picks have accused companies like Google and Meta of silencing conservative voices.
What will Elon Musk do with his power? The tech billionaire has been one of the most influential and omnipresent voices in Trump’s ear since the election, and his perch as co-head of the Department of Government Efficiency potentially gives him great sway — some critics say too much — over government agencies that fear budget cuts.
But the extent of Musk’s agenda remains unclear. He has already fought longtime Trump allies in defense of the skilled-worker visa program known as H-1B, a battle that he appears to have won for now. He’s also likely to push for further deregulation and more openness when it comes to A.I. and crypto. One unknown: how Musk, who sells a lot of Teslas in China, will weigh in on Beijing policy.
Executives want employees back in the office — and politics out of it. Starting this month, many of Amazon’s corporate staff members were required to work from the office five days a week, up from three days a week previously. The tech company’s return-to-office mandate caused waves and there are signs that office attendance across industries is ticking up.
But remote work remains prevalent, with about 30 million workers in hybrid or fully remote arrangements. Will other big tech companies follow Amazon’s lead in 2025?
Along with office attendance, executives are increasingly cracking down on employee activism. Starbucks sued a union that represents some of its workers after local affiliates posted pro-Palestinian social media posts (the union sued back). After Google fired dozens of employees last year over protests related to the company’s cloud computing contract with the Israeli government, the Google C.E.O., Sundar Pichai, told employees that work was not a place to “fight over disruptive issues or debate politics.” The sentiment seems to be catching on: Big tech companies that saw protests after Trump was elected in 2016 were silent after he was elected in 2024. Will the quiet continue?
D.E.I. will fight for its life. In 2024, the programs were attacked by lawsuits, activists such as Robby Starbuck and conservative lawmakers. As companies prepare for a Trump administration, some, like JetBlue and Molson Coors, have flagged diversity, equity and inclusion policies as a risk factor in their security filings. Walmart, Ford Motor and Toyota have rolled back some programs, and others are rebranding their efforts without advertising it, in hopes of attracting less attention. Fewer have publicly fought back, though Costco last month challenged a proposal by activist shareholders looking to end its D.E.I. efforts.
Infrastructure will become a growing focus of the A.I. race. The fight to dominate artificial intelligence is also spurring investment in infrastructure to generate the huge amount of electricity it requires. The International Energy Agency has forecast data center energy demand could double by 2026.
Some of the tech industry’s highest-profile executives are investing. Sam Altman of OpenAI, Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates are all backing nuclear fusion start-ups. Microsoft and BlackRock launched a $30 billion fund to invest in A.I. infrastructure last year. Silver Lake, the private equity firm, is spending big on data centers.
One name to watch this year: SoftBank. The Japanese tech investor has reportedly talked to Apollo, the private equity firm, about creating a $20 billion A.I. investment fund, and Masa Son, SoftBank’s mercurial C.E.O., is hunting for deals.
Defense tech could be in for a bumper year. Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine. Whether or not he succeeds, the defense tech industry will benefit either way. It’s already happening: Venture investment in defense start-ups soared last year, and by September had surpassed the total amount invested in 2023. Palantir, a data analytics company, was a star performer. Its market capitalization jumped almost fivefold to $180 billion in 2024, its operating margins have risen sharply and it joined the S&P 500 in September.
Others are also profiting from rising global uncertainty. Anduril Industries, a California-based defense start-up backed by Peter Thiel, the venture capitalist and Palantir co-founder, announced in August that it had raised $1.5 billion in a funding round that valued it at $14 billion. And Helsing, a German start-up that uses A.I. to process live data from the battlefield, is one of Europe’s best-funded companies.
If Trump does manage to end the war, it’s plausible that Western defense companies will find opportunities helping to build Ukraine’s military capability. If he doesn’t, more of their tech may be deployed on the ground there. Smaller, A.I.-powered companies are already testing their equipment in real time in a war where drones and other tech are playing a big role.
How will Trump take on China, and how will Beijing respond? Trump has promised to increase tariffs on goods from China, accusing Beijing and its companies of unfair competition among other things. It’s the same stance he took during his first presidency, when he ratcheted up trade restrictions with the world’s second-biggest economy.
Much uncertainty remains about how Trump’s threats will play out once he’s in office, but Chinese companies have proven adept at finding ways around previous restrictions. Some moved final manufacturing and assembly operations to countries like Mexico, Vietnam and Malaysia so they could export directly to the United States without paying the 25 percent levy Trump imposed during his first term. Other businesses, such as Temu, the e-commerce company, set up operations in the U.S. to appear less Chinese and more American. Even after that facade faded, it’s still thriving: Temu was the most downloaded free app in Apple’s App Store in 2024.
How will Trump’s policies affect the economy? Trump’s plan to cut taxes and red tape is expected to keep G.D.P. growth steady at about 3 percent this year, and bolster American businesses’ bottom line in the short run. But his vow to impose tariffs on some of the country’s biggest trading partners on his first day in office could seriously crimp global growth in 2025.
Another pressing question is whether Trump will dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act, which would put billions of dollars’ worth of tax credits in jeopardy. That prospect has prompted even some Big Oil executives to lobby Trump hard to preserve the law.
A wild-card: inflation. Will Trump’s policies reignite it, spooking both the Fed and the so-called bond vigilantes? Keep an eye on the yield for 10-year Treasury notes, market watchers say. A spike there could force the administration to dial back its most ambitious plans to stimulate growth. Already, inflation fears have prompted the Fed to slash its forecast for 2025 rate cuts.
Thanks for reading! We’ll see you Monday.
We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.
Business
Snoopy is everywhere right now — from jewelry to pimple patches. Why?
As a child, Clara Spars, who grew up in Charles M. Schulz’s adoptive hometown of Santa Rosa, assumed that every city had life-size “Peanuts” statues dotting its streets.
After all, Spars saw the sculptures everywhere she went — in the Santa Rosa Plaza, at Montgomery Village, outside downtown’s Empire Cleaners. When she and her family inevitably left town and didn’t stumble upon Charlie Brown and his motley crew, she was perplexed.
Whatever void she felt then is long gone, since the beagle has become a pop culture darling, adorning all manner of merchandise — from pimple patches to luxury handbags. Spars herself is the proud owner of a Baggu x Peanuts earbuds case and is regularly gifted Snoopy apparel and accessories.
“It’s so funny to see him everywhere because I’m like, ‘Oh, finally!’” Spars said.
The spike in Snoopy products has been especially pronounced this year with the 75th anniversary of “Peanuts,” a.k.a. Snoopy’s 75th birthday. But the grip Snoopy currently has on pop culture and the retail industry runs deeper than anniversary buzz. According to Sony, which last week acquired majority ownership of the “Peanuts” franchise, the IP is worth half a billion dollars.
To be clear, Snoopy has always been popular. Despite his owner being the “Peanuts” strip’s main character and the namesake for most of the franchise’s adaptations, Snoopy was inarguably its breakout star. He was the winner of a 2001 New York Times poll about readers’ favorite “Peanuts” characters, with 35% of the vote.
This year, the Charles M. Schulz Museum celebrated the 75th anniversary of the “Peanuts” comic strip’s debut.
(Brennan Spark / Charles M. Schulz Museum)
But the veritable Snoopymania possessing today’s consumers really exploded with the social media boom of the early 2010s, said Melissa Menta, senior vice president of global brand and communications for Peanuts Worldwide.
That’s also when the company saw the first signs of uncharacteristically high brand engagement, Menta said. She largely attributed the success of “Peanuts” on social media to the comic strip’s suitability to visual platforms like Instagram.
“No one reads the comic strips in newspapers anymore,” Menta said, “but if you think about it, a four-panel comic strip, it’s actually an Instagram carousel.”
Then, in 2023, Peanuts Worldwide launched the campaign that made Snoopy truly viral.
That year, the brand partnered with the American Red Cross to create a graphic tee as a gift for blood donors. The shirt, which featured Snoopy’s alter ego Joe Cool and the message “Be Cool. Give Blood,” unexpectedly became internet-famous. In the first week of the collaboration, the Red Cross saw a 40% increase in donation appointments, with 75% of donors under the age of 34.
“People went crazy over it,” Menta said, and journalists started asking her, “Why?”
Her answer? “Snoopy is cute and cool. He’s everything you want to be.”
“Charles Schulz said the only goal he had in all that he created was to make people laugh, and I think he’s still doing that 75 years later,” Schulz Museum director Gina Huntsinger said.
(Brennan Spark / Charles M. Schulz Museum)
The Red Cross collaboration was so popular that Peanuts Worldwide brought it back this year, releasing four new shirt designs. Again, the Snoopy fandom — plus some Woodstock enthusiasts — responded, with 250,000 blood donation appointments made nationwide in the month after the collection’s launch.
In addition to the Red Cross partnership, Peanuts Worldwide this year has rolled out collaborations with all kinds of retailers, from luxury brands like Coach and Kith to mass-market powerhouses like Krispy Kreme and Starbucks. Menta said licensed product volume is greater than ever, estimating that the brand currently has more than 1,200 licensees in “almost every territory around the world,” which is approximately four times the number it had 40 years ago.
Then again, at that time, Schulz enjoyed and regularly executed veto power when it came to product proposals, and licensing rules were laid out in what former Times staff writer Carla Lazzareschi called the “Bible.”
“The five-pound, 12-inch-by-18-inch binder given every new licensee establishes accepted poses for each character and painstakingly details their personalities,” Lazzareschi wrote in a 1987 Times story. “Snoopy, for example, is said to be an ‘extrovert beagle with a Walter Mitty complex.’ The guidelines cover even such matters as Snoopy’s grip on a tennis racquet.”
Although licensing has expanded greatly since then, Menta said she and her retail development associates “try hard not to just slap a character onto a T-shirt.” Their goal is to honor Schulz’s storytelling, she added, and with 18,000 “Peanuts” strips in the archive, licensees have plenty of material to pull from.
Rick Vargas, the senior vice president of merchandising and marketing at specialty retailer BoxLunch, said his team regularly returns to the Schulz archives to mine material that could resonate with customers.
“As long as you have a fresh look at what that IP has to offer, there’s always something to find. There’s always a new product to build,” Vargas said.
Indeed, this has been one of BoxLunch’s strongest years in terms of sales of “Peanuts” products, and Snoopy merchandise specifically, the executive said.
BaubleBar co-founder Daniella Yacobovsky said the brand’s “Peanuts” collaboration was one of its most beloved yet.
(BaubleBar)
Daniella Yacobovsky, co-founder of the celebrity-favorite accessory retailer BaubleBar, reported similar high sales for the brand’s recent “Peanuts” collection.
“Especially for people who are consistent BaubleBar fans, every time we introduce new character IP, there is this huge excitement from that fandom that we are bringing their favorite characters to life,” Yacobovsky said.
The bestselling item in the collection, the Peanuts Friends Forever Charm Bracelet, sold out in one day. Plus, customers have reached out with new ideas for products linked to specific “Peanuts” storylines.
More recently, Peanuts Worldwide has focused on marketing to younger costumers in response to unprecedented brand engagement from Gen Z. In November, it launched a collaboration with Starface, whose cult-favorite pimple patches are a staple for teens and young adults. The Snoopy stickers have already sold out on Ulta.com, Starface founder Julie Schott said in an emailed statement, adding that the brand is fielding requests for restocks.
“We know it’s a certified hit when resale on Depop and EBay starts to spike,” Schott said.
The same thing happened in 2023, when a CVS plush of Snoopy in a puffer jacket (possibly the dog’s most internet-famous iteration to date) sold out in-store and started cropping up on EBay — for more than triple the original price.
The culprits were Gen-Zers fawning over how cute cozy Snoopy was, often on social media.
“People who love Snoopy adore Snoopy, whether you grew up with ‘Peanuts’ or connect with Snoopy as a meme and cultural icon today,” said Starface founder Julie Schott.
(Starface World Inc.)
Hannah Guy Casey, senior director of brand and marketing at Peanuts Worldwide, said in 2024, the official Snoopy TikTok account gained 1.1 million followers, and attracted 85.4 million video views and 17.6 million engagements. This year, the account has gained another 1.2 million followers, and racked up 106.5 million video views and 23.2 million engagements.
Guy Casey noted that TikTok is where the brand experiences much of its engagement among Gen Z fans.
Indeed, the platform is a hot spot for fan-created Snoopy content, from memes featuring the puffer jacket to compilations of his most relatable moments. Several Snoopy fan accounts, including one dedicated to a music-loving Snoopy plushie, boast well over half a million followers.
Caryn Iwakiri, a speech and language pathologist at Sunnyvale’s Lakewood Tech EQ Elementary School whose classroom is Snoopy-themed, recently took an impromptu trip to the Charles M. Schulz Museum in Santa Rosa after seeing its welcome center decked out with Snoopy decor on TikTok. Once she arrived, she realized the museum was celebrating the “Peanuts” 75th anniversary.
Last year, the Schulz Museum saw its highest-ever attendance, driven in large part by its increased visibility on social media.
(Brennan Spark / Charles M. Schulz Museum)
It’s a familiar story for Schulz Museum director Gina Huntsinger.
“Last December, we were packed, and I was at the front talking to people, and I just randomly asked this group, ‘Why are you here?’”
It turned out that the friends had traveled from Washington, D.C., and Las Vegas to meet in Santa Rosa and visit the museum after seeing it on TikTok.
According to Stephanie King, marketing director at the Schulz Museum, the establishment is experiencing its highest-ever admissions since opening in 2002. In the 2024–2025 season, the museum increased its attendance by nearly 45% from the previous year.
Huntsinger said she’s enjoyed watching young visitors experience the museum in new ways.
In the museum’s education room, where visitors typically trace characters from the original Schulz comics or fill out “Peanuts” coloring pages, Gen Z museumgoers are sketching pop culture renditions of Snoopy — Snoopy as rock band Pierce the Veil, Snoopy as pop star Charli XCX.
“When our social media team puts them up [online], there’s these comments among this generation that gets this, and they’re having conversations about it,” Huntsinger said. “It’s dynamic, it’s fun, it’s creative. It makes me feel like there’s hope in the world.”
The Schulz Museum’s “Passport to Peanuts” exhibition emphasizes the comic’s global reach.
(Brennan Spark / Charles M. Schulz Museum)
Laurel Roxas felt similarly when they first discovered “Peanuts” as a kid while playing the “Snoopy vs. the Red Baron” video game on their PlayStation Portable. For Roxas, who is Filipino, it was Snoopy and not the “Peanuts” children who resonated most.
“Nobody was Asian. I was like, ‘Oh, I’m not even in the story,’” they said.
Because Snoopy was so simply drawn, Roxas added, he was easy to project onto. They felt similarly about Hello Kitty; with little identifying features or dialogue of their own, the characters were blank canvases for their own personification.
Roxas visited Snoopy Museum Tokyo with their brother last year. They purchased so much Snoopy merchandise — “everything I could get my hands on” — that they had to buy additional luggage to bring it home.
For some Snoopy enthusiasts, the high volume of Snoopy products borders on oversaturation, threatening to cheapen the spirit of the character.
Growing up, Bella Shingledecker loved the holiday season because it meant that the “Peanuts” animated specials would be back on the air. It was that sense of impermanence, she believes, that made the films special.
Now, when she sees stacks of Snoopy cookie jars or other trend-driven products at big-box stores like T.J. Maxx, it strikes her as a bit sad.
“It just feels very unwanted,” she said. For those who buy such objects, she said she can’t help but wonder, “Will this pass your aesthetic test next year?”
Lina Jeong, for one, isn’t worried that Snoopy’s star will fade.
“[Snoopy is] always able to show what he feels, but it’s never through words, and I think there’s something really poetic in that,” said Lina Jeong.
(Brennan Spark / Charles M. Schulz Museum)
Jeong’s affinity for the whimsical beagle was passed down to her from her parents, who furnished their home with commemorative “Peanuts” coffee table books. But she fell in love with Snoopy the first time she saw “Be My Valentine, Charlie Brown,” which she rewatches every Valentine’s Day.
This past year, she was fresh out of a relationship when the holiday rolled around and she found herself tearing up during scenes of Snoopy making Valentine’s crafts for his friends.
“Maybe I was hyper-emotional from everything that had happened, but I remember being so struck,” that the special celebrated platonic love over romantic love, Jeong said.
It was a great comfort to her at the time, she said, and she knows many others have felt that same solace from “Peanuts” media — especially from its dear dog.
“Snoopy is such a cultural pillar that I feel like fads can’t just wash it off,” she said.
Soon, she added, she plans to move those “Peanuts” coffee table books into her own apartment in L.A.
Business
Fight between Waymo and Santa Monica goes to court
Waymo is taking the city of Santa Monica to court after the city ordered the company to cease charging its autonomous vehicles at two facilities overnight, claiming the lights and beeping at the lots were a nuisance to residents.
The two charging stations at the intersection of Euclid Street and Broadway have been a sour point for neighbors since they began operating roughly a year ago. Some residents have told The Times they’ve been unable to sleep because of the incessant beeping from Waymos maneuvering in and out of charging spots on the lot 24 hours a day.
Last month, the city ordered Waymo and the company that operates the charging stations, Voltera, to stop overnight operations at the sites, arguing that the light, noise and activity there constitute a public nuisance. Instead of complying, Waymo has turned around and filed a suit against the city, asking the court to intervene.
“Waymo’s activities at the Broadway Facilities do not constitute a public nuisance,” the company argued in its complaint, filed Wednesday in Los Angeles County Superior Court. “Waymo faces imminent and irreparable harm to its operations, employees, and customers.”
A spokesperson for the city did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
According to the suit, the city was aware that the Voltera charging facilities were to operate and maintain a commercial electric vehicle fleet 24 hours a day, and the city approved its use when it approved the permits for the stations.
The rift between the company and some Santa Monica residents began as soon as the vehicles began utilizing the 24-hour charging stations, which have overnight staffing, lights and cars beeping as they reverse in and out of parking spots. Tensions got so bad that some residents took to blocking the path of the driverless vehicles, blocking the driveways into the charging stations, and placing orange cones in the area to hinder their routes and create backups, a practice several have called “stacking the Waymos.”
Meanwhile, employees at the charging stations have called police several times as a result, although no arrests have been made. Waymo also unsuccessfully attempted to obtain a temporary restraining order against one resident who had allegedly repeatedly blocked the vehicles.
On Nov. 19, the city ordered Waymo to stop charging its autonomous cars at the two lots overnight or face the possibility of legal action. Waymo declined and instead sued the city last week after negotiations with the city on mitigation measures to the lots fell apart.
According to the lawsuit, Waymo and Voltera representatives reached out to the city after the Nov. 19 order, looking for ways to mitigate the noise and lights from the lots, including initiating a software update that would change the vehicles’ path to the charging stations. But after a meeting on Dec. 15 with the city, no agreement was reached, the company said in its complaint.
“We are disappointed that the City has chosen an adversarial path over a collaborative one,” a spokesperson for Waymo said in a statement.
“The City’s position has been to insist that no actions taken or proposed by Waymo would satisfy the complaining neighbors and therefore must be deemed insufficient.”
The company also blasted the city’s handling of the dispute, arguing that despite facing a budget crisis, city officials have adopted a contentious strategy against business.
“The City of Santa Monica’s recent actions are inconsistent with its stated goal of attracting investment,” the company said in a statement. “At a time when the City faces a serious fiscal crisis, officials are choosing to obstruct properly permitted investment rather than fostering a ‘ready for business’ environment.”
The lawsuit is just the latest legal battle for the Alphabet-owned company, which has been rapidly expanding across California, making the white, driverless vehicles more commonplace.
Two years ago, the company was sued by the city of San Francisco, which argued that the California Public Utilities Commission shouldn’t have handed Waymo permits to expand and operate in the city, and that the regulatory agency had abdicated its responsibilities.
The California 1st District Court of Appeal disagreed, and ruled against the city.
This past June, Waymo announced it would expand its service area to 120 square miles in Los Angeles County, with Waymos operating in Playa del Rey, Ladera Heights, Echo Park, Silver Lake and Hollywood.
In November the company launched its ride-hailing service to now operate across Los Angeles County freeways, as well as in the San Francisco Bay and Phoenix.
Since it launched in Santa Monica, the company argues it has done more than a million trips in the city and in November alone, recorded more than 50,000 rides starting or ending there.
“The [charging] site has enabled Waymo to provide a safe, sustainable and accessible transportation option to city residents,” Waymo said in the statement.
Business
Video: Uber Clears Violent Felons to Drive
new video loaded: Uber Clears Violent Felons to Drive
By Emily Steel, Christina Shaman, Zach Caldwell, David Jouppi and Thomas Trudeau
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