Connect with us

Business

What Buffett’s Exit Means

Published

on

What Buffett’s Exit Means

It was closing in on 1 p.m. when Warren Buffett, seated onstage before a rapt audience of about 40,000 at the CHI Health Center in Omaha, said that he was getting a “5-minute warning.”

To most of those there for the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, his company, it was simply a signal that the gathering — known as Woodstock for capitalists — was drawing to a close. No one knew that something historic was about to happen.

After 60 years of running the company he has called his painting, the 94-year-old Buffett said that he planned to step down as chief executive at year end. (Proving how much freedom he has always exercised at Berkshire, he surprised his own board and Greg Abel, his handpicked successor: “I want to spring that on the directors,” he said with a smile.)

People in the crowd, many of whom were in tears, rose from their seats in a standing ovation for a singular figure in the business world.

Buffett is often described as a symbol of American capitalism. The truth is that he has always been an outlier. He is more the conscience of capitalism, willing to speak uncomfortable truths about the system’s ills while others remained silent. (His public comments on issues like tariffs over the weekend are a prime example.)

Advertisement

The billionaire always comes across as a gentleman, and in an age of distrust he became someone people could trust. Fellow business moguls and government officials admired him because of his success, yes — Berkshire reported $89 billion in net profit last year, and it is one of the biggest buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds — but also because he didn’t appear to have changed despite his wealth. He lives in a modest house in Omaha, and for years drove his own car, including to the drive-through at McDonald’s.

Buffett isn’t perfect, something he often acknowledges, and he has urged his followers to stay humble as he discussed his own investing mistakes and misses. But that also got to one of his biggest accomplishments, using his annual Berkshire letters and marathon Q. and A. sessions with shareholders to educate generations about business, investing and life itself.

After the announcement, I was struck by a social media post from someone I wouldn’t have normally considered to be a Berkshire watcher, who perfectly encapsulated the importance of Buffett and his longtime business partner, the late Charlie Munger. “They were the good investors, dealers in reality, patient,” wrote Nick Denton, the founder of Gawker. “When the history of the rise and fall of America is written, one of the chapters will begin in Omaha, with their departure.”

As Buffett prepares to depart, the big question is: What will happen to his masterpiece once it passes to Abel?

It has been apparent for several years now that on a day-to-day basis, Abel is already running large swaths of Berkshire’s operations, so the shift likely won’t be dramatic. But the scrutiny of “Abel’s Berkshire” will undoubtedly increase: The company wasn’t built just as a collection of disparate businesses, but as the vision of one man.

Advertisement

Abel has said he will seek to maintain the culture that his boss meticulously built. But things will inevitably become different. Berkshire’s board gave Buffett an unparalleled degree of autonomy to operate as he saw fit, often learning about significant deals he had struck only after the fact.

Abel will have to work hard to earn even some of that latitude, and under him Berkshire is likely to operate with more guardrails. But there is speculation that Buffett will remain chairman for some period, which could afford Abel more freedom as he grows into the top job.

Nevertheless, Buffett’s success, and the company he built, were exceptional. What investors gathered in Omaha this weekend, and the world over, want to know is what comes next.

Markets brace for central banks and a busy earnings week. On Wednesday, the Fed is widely expected to again hold interest rates steady, potentially further irritating President Trump (though he seems to be backing off calls to fire Jay Powell, the Fed chair). Big companies are also set to report results, with investors focusing on further fallout from the trade war: Ford announces on Monday; Disney, Uber and Novo Nordisk on Wednesday; and Toyota, AB InBev and Shopify on Thursday.

Stocks look set to snap a nine-day winning streak. S&P 500 futures are down, with energy stocks in particular looking weak. Oil prices have fallen roughly 2 percent on Monday — West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, is trading around $56.60, well below most domestic drillers’ break-even price — after the OPEC Plus cartel shifted course on Saturday and said it would increase production.

Advertisement

Shell’s shares jump on a report that it’s weighing a bid for BP. The oil giant’s advisers are evaluating a takeover of the struggling BP, Bloomberg reports, and could pounce if oil prices (and its rival’s stock) fall further. The fate of BP has become a much-discussed issue, with Wall Street analysts seeing it as a prime acquisition target as it pursues a turnaround plan under pressure from the activist investor Elliott Investment Management.

Betting on papal elections may be older than the Sistine Chapel. This week’s conclave involves a new twist: It’s the first time that major online prediction markets have turned their focus on the Vatican’s ancient selection process.

And the wagers are flowing in. The Italian cardinal Pietro Parolin has emerged as the odds-on favorite to succeed Pope Francis, according to the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Even a report last week that the 70-year-old had medical issues, which the Vatican denied, did little to dent that lead.

But while prediction markets claimed vindication in correctly predicting President Trump’s victory in November, picking the next heir to Saint Peter’s throne is likely to be a tougher challenge, experts both inside the Vatican — known as the “vaticanisti” — and outside tell Bernhard Warner and Michael de la Merced.

The wisdom of crowds can likely go only so far. High-tech betting sites “will never be able to break through the complexity, the unpredictability of the decisions made inside,” Franca Giansoldati, a Vatican specialist who writes for Il Messaggero, one of Italy’s biggest daily newspapers, said.

Advertisement

Rajiv Sethi, an economist at Barnard College who has studied prediction markets, noted that when it came to the presidential election, bettors were able to process a wide variety of information sources, including public polls and televised debates. The papal conclave — famously conducted behind closed doors and composed of an expected 133 cardinal electors sworn to secrecy — offers far fewer clues for gamblers.

Consider that a spike in the Polymarket contract betting that a new pope would be picked in 2025 took place after Francis’ death was announced, according to Sethi. Were there inside trading, someone could have made a lot of money. “We can rule out information leakage from cardinals,” Sethi said.

Conclave politics have been highly unpredictable. In 2013, the odds-on favorite was Cardinal Angelo Scola; then-Cardinal Jose Maria Bergoglio, who became Francis, was on few short lists. There are also unexpected developments, most recently when Cardinal Angelo Becciu, who was forced to resign his positions after a financial scandal, briefly sought to crash the upcoming conclave.

Again this time, the cardinals are divided, and many are meeting for the first time — factors that could complicate how long it takes before white smoke emerges from the Sistine Chapel.

Then there are other potential wild cards, including President Trump’s policies (which Francis frequently criticized), Giansoldati noted. Could cardinals even be influenced by a Trump social media post depicting himself in papal vestments? Analysts have seen a kind of Trump effect energizing national elections around the world already this year.

Advertisement

All that is unlikely to deter online bettors. Kalshi’s main contract on who the next pope will be currently has about $5 million in wager volume. “So far, the papal election market is tracking to be as big as the Super Bowl,” which saw $27 million in volume, Jack Such, a spokesman for the prediction market, told DealBook.


Marc Elias, a prominent lawyer for the Democratic Party whom President Trump has targeted by name in his campaign against big law firms, on “60 Minutes.” Trump drew further concern when, during an interview on “Meet the Press” that aired on Sunday, he repeatedly said “I don’t know” when asked if he needed to uphold the Constitution and guarantee the right of due process.


Shares in Netflix were down more than 4 percent in premarket trading this morning as investors weigh President Trump’s latest tariff target: films made overseas.

Never mind that Hollywood has a huge trade surplus with the rest of the world, and that it’s difficult to define how much of a major film is actually produced outside the United States. The proposal, which involves a 100 percent levy on such films, could scramble the economics for major studios and streaming services.

Elsewhere in tariff news:

Advertisement
  • Trump said on Air Force Once that he has no plans to speak with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, this week as the trade talks between the two stall. But he reiterated that he is willing to lower the levies that have hit commerce between the two countries.

  • Many of the corporate promises to invest big in America, which the White House has said amount to “trillions of dollars in new investment,” are wildly overblown, according to an analysis by The Washington Post.


DEALBOOK WANTS TO HEAR FROM YOU

We’d like to know how the tariffs are affecting your business. Have you changed suppliers? Negotiated lower prices? Paused investments or hiring? Made plans to move manufacturing to the U.S.? Or have the tariffs helped your business? Please let us know what you’re doing.

Deals

Politics, policy and regulation

Best of the rest

Advertisement

We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.

Business

California, other states sue Trump administration over $100,000 fee for H-1B visas

Published

on

California, other states sue Trump administration over 0,000 fee for H-1B visas

California and a coalition of other states are suing the Trump administration over a policy charging employers $100,000 for each new H-1B visa they request for foreign employees to work in the U.S. — calling it a threat not only to major industry but also to public education and healthcare services.

“As the world’s fourth largest economy, California knows that when skilled talent from around the world joins our workforce, it drives our state forward,” said California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta, who announced the litigation Friday.

President Trump imposed the fee through a Sept. 19 proclamation, in which he said the H-1B visa program — designed to provide U.S. employers with skilled workers in science, technology, engineering, math and other advanced fields — has been “deliberately exploited to replace, rather than supplement, American workers with lower-paid, lower-skilled labor.”

Trump said the program also created a “national security threat by discouraging Americans from pursuing careers in science and technology, risking American leadership in these fields.”

Advertisement

Bonta said such claims are baseless, and that the imposition of such fees is unlawful because it runs counter to the intent of Congress in creating the program and exceeds the president’s authority. He said Congress has included significant safeguards to prevent abuses, and that the new fee structure undermines the program’s purpose.

“President Trump’s illegal $100,000 H-1B visa fee creates unnecessary — and illegal — financial burdens on California public employers and other providers of vital services, exacerbating labor shortages in key sectors,” Bonta said in a statement. “The Trump Administration thinks it can raise costs on a whim, but the law says otherwise.”

Taylor Rogers, a White House spokeswoman, said Friday that the fee was “a necessary, initial, incremental step towards necessary reforms” that were lawful and in line with the president’s promise to “put American workers first.”

Attorneys for the administration previously defended the fee in response to a separate lawsuit brought by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Assn. of American Universities, arguing earlier this month that the president has “extraordinarily broad discretion to suspend the entry of aliens whenever he finds their admission ‘detrimental to the interests of the United States,’” or to adopt “reasonable rules, regulations, and orders” related to their entry.

“The Supreme Court has repeatedly confirmed that this authority is ‘sweeping,’ subject only to the requirement that the President identify a class of aliens and articulate a facially legitimate reason for their exclusion,” the administration’s attorneys wrote.

Advertisement

They alleged that the H-1B program has been “ruthlessly and shamelessly exploited by bad actors,” and wrote that the plaintiffs were asking the court “to disregard the President’s inherent authority to restrict the entry of aliens into the country and override his judgment,” which they said it cannot legally do.

Trump’s announcement of the new fee alarmed many existing visa holders and badly rattled industries that are heavily reliant on such visas, including tech companies trying to compete for the world’s best talent in the global race to ramp up their AI capabilities. Thousands of companies in California have applied for H-1B visas this year, and tens of thousands have been granted to them.

Trump’s adoption of the fees is seen as part of his much broader effort to restrict immigration into the U.S. in nearly all its forms. However, he is far from alone in criticizing the H-1B program as a problematic pipeline.

Critics of the program have for years documented examples of employers using it to replace American workers with cheaper foreign workers, as Trump has suggested, and questioned whether the country truly has a shortage of certain types of workers — including tech workers.

There have also been allegations of employers, who control the visas, abusing workers and using the threat of deportation to deter complaints — among the reasons some on the political left have also been critical of the program.

Advertisement

“Not only is this program disastrous for American workers, it can be very harmful to guest workers as well, who are often locked into lower-paying jobs and can have their visas taken away from them by their corporate bosses if they complain about dangerous, unfair or illegal working conditions,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) wrote in a Fox News opinion column in January.

In the Chamber of Commerce case, attorneys for the administration wrote that companies in the U.S. “have at times laid off thousands of American workers while simultaneously hiring thousands of H-1B workers,” sometimes even forcing the American workers “to train their H-1B replacements” before they leave.

They have done so, the attorneys wrote, even as unemployment among recent U.S. college graduates in STEM fields has increased.

“Employing H-1B workers in entry-level positions at discounted rates undercuts American worker wages and opportunities, and is antithetical to the purpose of the H-1B program, which is ‘to fill jobs for which highly skilled and educated American workers are unavailable,’” the administration’s attorneys wrote.

By contrast, the states’ lawsuit stresses the shortfalls in the American workforce in key industries, and defends the program by citing its existing limits. The legal action notes that employers must certify to the government that their hiring of visa workers will not negatively affect American wages or working conditions. Congress also has set a cap on the number of visa holders that any individual employer may hire.

Advertisement

Bonta’s office said educators account for the third-largest occupation group in the program, with nearly 30,000 educators with H-1B visas helping thousands of institutions fill a national teacher shortage that saw nearly three-quarters of U.S. school districts report difficulty filling positions in the 2024-2025 school year.

Schools, universities and colleges — largely public or nonprofit — cannot afford to pay $100,000 per visa, Bonta’s office said.

In addition, some 17,000 healthcare workers with H-1B visas — half of them physicians and surgeons — are helping to backfill a massive shortfall in trained medical staff in the U.S., including by working as doctors and nurses in low-income and rural neighborhoods, Bonta’s office said.

“In California, access to specialists and primary care providers in rural areas is already extremely limited and is projected to worsen as physicians retire and these communities struggle to attract new doctors,” it said. “As a result of the fee, these institutions will be forced to operate with inadequate staffing or divert funding away from other important programs to cover expenses.”

Bonta’s office said that prior to the imposition of the new fee, employers could expect to pay between $960 and $7,595 in “regulatory and statutory fees” per H-1B visa, based on the actual cost to the government of processing the request and document, as intended by Congress.

Advertisement

The Trump administration, Bonta’s office said, issued the new fee without going through legally required processes for collecting outside input first, and “without considering the full range of impacts — especially on the provision of the critical services by government and nonprofit entities.”

The arguments echo findings by a judge in a separate case years ago, after Trump tried to restrict many such visas in his first term. A judge in that case — brought by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Assn. of Manufacturers and others — found that Congress, not the president, had the authority to change the terms of the visas, and that the Trump administration had not evaluated the potential impacts of such a change before implementing it, as required by law.

The case became moot after President Biden decided not to renew the restrictions in 2021, a move which tech companies considered a win.

Joining in the lawsuit — California’s 49th against the Trump administration in the last year alone — are Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

Some big water agencies in farming areas get water for free. Critics say that needs to end

Published

on

Some big water agencies in farming areas get water for free. Critics say that needs to end

The water that flows down irrigation canals to some of the West’s biggest expanses of farmland comes courtesy of the federal government for a very low price — even, in some cases, for free.

In a new study, researchers analyzed wholesale prices charged by the federal government in California, Arizona and Nevada, and found that large agricultural water agencies pay only a fraction of what cities pay, if anything at all. They said these “dirt-cheap” prices cost taxpayers, add to the strains on scarce water, and discourage conservation — even as the Colorado River’s depleted reservoirs continue to decline.

“Federal taxpayers have been subsidizing effectively free water for a very, very long time,” said Noah Garrison, a researcher at UCLA’s Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. “We can’t address the growing water scarcity in the West while we continue to give that water away for free or close to it.”

The report, released this week by UCLA and the environmental group Natural Resources Defense Council, examines water that local agencies get from the Colorado River as well as rivers in California’s Central Valley, and concludes that the federal government delivers them water at much lower prices than state water systems or other suppliers.

The researchers recommend the Trump administration start charging a “water reliability and security surcharge” on all Colorado River water as well as water from the canals of the Central Valley Project in California. That would encourage agencies and growers to conserve, they said, while generating hundreds of millions of dollars to repair aging and damaged canals and pay for projects such as new water recycling plants.

Advertisement

“The need for the price of water to reflect its scarcity is urgent in light of the growing Colorado River Basin crisis,” the researchers wrote.

The study analyzed only wholesale prices paid by water agencies, not the prices paid by individual farmers or city residents. It found that agencies serving farming areas pay about $30 per acre-foot of water on average, whereas city water utilities pay $512 per acre-foot.

In California, Arizona and Nevada, the federal government supplies more than 7 million acre-feet of water, about 14 times the total water usage of Los Angeles, for less than $1 per acre-foot.

And more than half of that — nearly one-fourth of all the water the researchers analyzed — is delivered for free by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation to five water agencies in farming areas: the Imperial Irrigation District, Palo Verde Irrigation District and Coachella Valley Water District, as well as the Truckee-Carson Irrigation District in Nevada and the Unit B Irrigation and Drainage District in Arizona.

Along the Colorado River, about three-fourths of the water is used for agriculture.

Advertisement

Farmers in California’s Imperial Valley receive the largest share of Colorado River water, growing hay for cattle, lettuce, spinach, broccoli and other crops on more than 450,000 acres of irrigated lands.

The Imperial Irrigation District charges farmers the same rate for water that it has for years: $20 per acre-foot.

Tina Shields, IID’s water department manager, said the district opposes any surcharge on water. Comparing agricultural and urban water costs, as the researchers did, she said, “is like comparing a grape to a watermelon,” given major differences in how water is distributed and treated.

Shields pointed out that IID and local farmers are already conserving, and this year the savings will equal about 23% of the district’s total water allotment.

“Imperial Valley growers provide the nation with a safe, reliable food supply on the thinnest of margins for many growers,” she said in an email.

Advertisement

She acknowledged IID does not pay any fee to the government for water, but said it does pay for operating, maintaining and repairing both federal water infrastructure and the district’s own system.

“I see no correlation between the cost of Colorado River water and shortages, and disagree with these inflammatory statements,” Shields said, adding that there “seems to be an intent to drive a wedge between agricultural and urban water users at a time when collaborative partnerships are more critical than ever.”

The Colorado River provides water for seven states, 30 Native tribes and northern Mexico, but it’s in decline. Its reservoirs have fallen during a quarter-century of severe drought intensified by climate change. Its two largest reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, are now less than one-third full.

Negotiations among the seven states on how to deal with shortages have deadlocked.

Mark Gold, a co-author, said the government’s current water prices are so low that they don’t cover the costs of operating, maintaining and repairing aging aqueducts and other infrastructure. Even an increase to $50 per acre-foot of water, he said, would help modernize water systems and incentivize conservation.

Advertisement

A spokesperson for the U.S. Interior Department, which oversees the Bureau of Reclamation, declined to comment on the proposal.

The Colorado River was originally divided among the states under a 1922 agreement that overpromised what the river could provide. That century-old pact and the ingrained system of water rights, combined with water that costs next to nothing, Gold said, lead to “this slow-motion train wreck that is the Colorado right now.”

Research has shown that the last 25 years were likely the driest quarter-century in the American West in at least 1,200 years, and that global warming is contributing to this megadrought.

The Colorado River’s flow has decreased about 20% so far this century, and scientists have found that roughly half the decline is due to rising temperatures, driven largely by fossil fuels.

In a separate report this month, scientists Jonathan Overpeck and Brad Udall said the latest science suggests that climate change will probably “exert a stronger influence, and this will mean a higher likelihood of continued lower precipitation in the headwaters of the Colorado River into the future.”

Advertisement

Experts have urged the Trump administration to impose substantial water cuts throughout the Colorado River Basin, saying permanent reductions are necessary. Kathryn Sorensen and Sarah Porter, researchers at Arizona State University’s Kyl Center for Water Policy, have suggested the federal government set up a voluntary program to buy and retire water-intensive farmlands, or to pay landowners who “agree to permanent restrictions on water use.”

Over the last few years, California and other states have negotiated short-term deals and as part of that, some farmers in California and Arizona are temporarily leaving hay fields parched and fallow in exchange for federal payments.

The UCLA researchers criticized these deals, saying water agencies “obtain water from the federal government at low or no cost, and the government then buys that water back from the districts at enormous cost to taxpayers.”

Isabel Friedman, a coauthor and NRDC researcher, said adopting a surcharge would be a powerful conservation tool.

“We need a long-term strategy that recognizes water as a limited resource and prices it as such,” she wrote in an article about the proposal.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

As Netflix and Paramount circle Warner Bros. Discovery, Hollywood unions voice alarm

Published

on

As Netflix and Paramount circle Warner Bros. Discovery, Hollywood unions voice alarm

The sale of Warner Bros. — whether in pieces to Netflix or in its entirety to Paramount — is stirring mounting worries among Hollywood union leaders about the possible fallout for their members.

Unions representing writers, directors, actors and crew workers have voiced growing concerns that further consolidation in the media industry will reduce competition, potentially causing studios to pay less for content, and make it more difficult for people to find work.

“We’ve seen this movie before, and we know how it ends,” said Michele Mulroney, president of the Writers Guild of America West. “There are lots of promises made that one plus one is going to equal three. But it’s very hard to envision how two behemoths, for example, Warner Bros. and Netflix … can keep up the level of output they currently have.”

Last week, Netflix announced it agreed to buy Warner Bros. Discovery’s film and TV studio, Burbank lot, HBO and HBO Max for $27.75 a share, or $72 billion. It also agreed to take on more than $10 billion of Warner Bros.’ debt. But Paramount, whose previous offers were rebuffed by Warner Bros., has appealed directly to shareholders with an alternative bid to buy all of the company for about $78 billion.

Paramount said it will have more than $6 billion in cuts over three years, while also saying the combined companies will release at least 30 movies a year. Netflix said it expects its deal will have $2 billion to $3 billion in cost cuts.

Advertisement

Those cuts are expected to trigger thousands of layoffs across Hollywood, which has already been squeezed by the flight of production overseas and a contraction in the once booming TV business.

Mulroney said that employment for WGA writers in episodic television is down as much as 40% when comparing the 2023-2024 writing season to 2022-2023.

Executives from both companies have said their deals would benefit creative talent and consumers.

But Hollywood union leaders are skeptical.

“We can hear the generalizations all day long, but it doesn’t really mean anything unless it’s on paper, and we just don’t know if these companies are even prepared to make promises in writing,” said Lindsay Dougherty, Teamsters at-large vice president and principal officer for Local 399, which represents drivers, location managers and casting directors.

Advertisement

Dougherty said the Teamsters have been engaged with both Netflix and Paramount, seeking commitments to keep filming in Los Angeles.

“We have a lot of members that are struggling to find work, or haven’t really worked in the last year or so,” Dougherty said.

Mulroney said her union has concerns about both bids, either by Netflix or Paramount.

“We don’t think the merger is inevitable,” Mulroney said. “We think there’s an opportunity to push back here.”

If Netflix were to buy Warner Bros.’ TV and film businesses, Mulroney said that could further undermine the theatrical business.

Advertisement

“It’s hard to imagine them fully embracing theatrical exhibition,” Mulroney said. “The exhibition business has been struggling to get back on its feet ever since the pandemic, so a move like this could really be existential.”

But the Writers Guild also has issues with Paramount’s bid, Mulroney said, noting that it would put Paramount-owned CBS News and CNN under the same parent company.

“We have censorship concerns,” Mulroney said. “We saw issues around [Stephen] Colbert and [Jimmy] Kimmel. We’re concerned about what the news would look like under single ownership here.”

That question was made more salient this week after President Trump, who has for years harshly criticized CNN’s hosts and news coverage, said he believes CNN should be sold.

The worries come as some unions’ major studio contracts, including the DGA, WGA and performers guild SAG-AFTRA, are set to expire next year. Two years ago, writers and actors went on a prolonged strike to push for more AI protections and better wages and benefits.

Advertisement

The Directors Guild of America and performers union SAG-AFTRA have voiced similar objections to the pending media consolidation.

“A deal that is in the interest of SAG-AFTRA members and all other workers in the entertainment industry must result in more creation and more production, not less,” the union said.

SAG-AFTRA National Executive Director Duncan Crabtree-Ireland said the union has been in discussions with both Paramount and Netflix.

“It is as yet unclear what path forward is going to best protect the legacy that Warner Brothers presents, and that’s something that we’re very actively investigating right now,” he said.

It’s not clear, however, how much influence the unions will have in the outcome.

Advertisement

“They just don’t have a seat at the ultimate decision making table,” said David Smith, a professor of economics at the Pepperdine Graziadio Business School. “I expect their primary involvement could be through creating more awareness of potential challenges with a merger and potentially more regulatory scrutiny … I think that’s what they’re attempting to do.”

Continue Reading

Trending